Skin and Connective Tissue Diseases Commons^™

Predicting The Environmental Suitability For Onchocerciasis In Africa As An Aid To Elimination Planning, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, Joshua C P. Osborne, Thomas R. Unnasch, Maria-Gloria Basáñez, Katherine M. Gass, Kira A. Barbre, Elex Hill, Kimberly B. Johnson, Katie M. Donkers, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta

Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where …