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An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model For Short-Term Prediction Of Hepatitis C Virus Seropositivity Among Male Volunteer Blood Donors In Karachi, Pakistan, Saeed Akhtar, Shafquat Rozi
An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model For Short-Term Prediction Of Hepatitis C Virus Seropositivity Among Male Volunteer Blood Donors In Karachi, Pakistan, Saeed Akhtar, Shafquat Rozi
Community Health Sciences
Aim: To identify the stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for short term forecasting of hepatitis C virus (HCV) seropositivity among volunteer blood donors in Karachi, Pakistan.
Methods: Ninety-six months (1998-2005) data on HCV seropositive cases (1000(-1) x month(-1)) among male volunteer blood donors tested at four major blood banks in Karachi, Pakistan were subjected to ARIMA modeling. Subsequently, a fitted ARIMA model was used to forecast HCV seropositive donors for 91-96 mo to contrast with observed series of the same months. To assess the forecast accuracy, the mean absolute error rate (%) between the observed and predicted HCV …