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System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The objective of the study was to develop a system dynamics model of the medical use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain, and the associated diversion and nonmedical use of these drugs. The model was used to test the impact of simulated interventions in this complex system. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the literature and from other public sources for the period 1995 to 2008. In addition, an expert panel provided recommendations regarding model parameters and model structure. The behavior of the resulting systems level model compared favorably with reference behavior data (R2=.95). After the base model …