Forest Management Commons^™

A Polygon-Based Modeling Approach To Assess Exposure Of Resources And Assets To Wildfire, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe Scott, Jeffrey D. Kaiden, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day

USDA Forest Service / UNL Faculty Publications

Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns divided by the number of simulation iterations. Spatial intersection of highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs) with pixel-based burn probability estimates enables quantification of HVRA exposure to wildfire in terms of expected area burned. However, statistical expectations can mask variability in HVRA area burned across all simulated fires. We present an alternative, polygon-based formulation for deriving estimates of HVRA area burned. This effort enhances investigations …