Forest Management Commons^™

Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland– urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for …

Fire And Land Cover Change In The Palouse Prairie–Forest Ecotone, Washington And Idaho, Usa, Penelope Morgan, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Eva K. Strand, Stephen C. Bunting, James P. Riser Ii, John T. Abatzoglou, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mara Johnson

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Prairie–forest ecotones are ecologically important for biodiversity and ecological processes. While these ecotones cover small areas, their sharp gradients in land cover promote rich ecological interaction and high conservation value. Our objective was to understand how historical and current fire occurrences and human development influenced the Palouse Prairie–forest ecotone. We used General Land Office survey field notes about the occurrence of bearing trees to locate historical (1870s to 1880s) prairie, pine savanna, and forest at the eastern edge of the bioregion. We combined LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation classes to contrast historical land cover with current land cover. We reconstructed …

Wildland Fire Reburning Trends Across The Us West Suggest Only Short-Term Negative Feedback And Differing Climatic Effects, Brian Buma, Shelby A. Weiss, K. Hayes, Melissa S. Lucash

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wildfires are a significant agent of disturbance in forests and highly sensitive to climate change. Short-interval fires and high severity (mortality-causing) fires in particular, may catalyze rapid and substantial ecosystem shifts by eliminating woody species and triggering conversions from forest to shrub or grassland ecosystems. Modeling and fine-scale observations suggest negative feedbacks between fire and fuels should limit reburn prevalence as overall fire frequency rises. However, while we have good information on reburning patterns for individual fires or small regions, the validity of scaling these conclusions to broad regions like the US West remains unknown. Both the prevalence of reburning …

Social Vulnerability To Large Wildfires In The Western Usa, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures …

Four-Fold Increase In Solar Forcing On Snow In Western U.S. Burned Forests Since 1999, Kelly E. Gleason, Joseph R. Mcconnell, Monica M. Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Wendy M. Calvin

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Forest fires are increasing across the American West due to climate warming and fire suppression. Accelerated snow melt occurs in burned forests due to increased light transmission through the canopy and decreased snow albedo from deposition of light-absorbing impurities. Using satellite observations, we document up to an annual 9% growth in western forests burned since 1984, and 5 day earlier snow disappearance persisting for >10 years following fire. Here, we show that black carbon and burned woody debris darkens the snowpack and lowers snow albedo for 15 winters following fire, using measurements of snow collected from seven forested sites that …

Using Transboundary Wildfire Exposure Assessments To Improve Fire Management Programs: A Case Study In Greece, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Kostas Kalabokidis

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Numerous catastrophic wildfires in Greece have demonstrated that relying on fire suppression as the primary risk-management strategy is inadequate and that existing wildfire-risk governance needs to be re-examined. In this research, we used simulation modelling to assess the spatial scale of wildfire exposure to communities and cultural monuments in Chalkidiki, Greece. The study area typifies many areas in Greece in terms of fire regimes, ownership patterns and fire-risk mitigation. Fire-transmission networks were built to quantify connectivity among land tenures and populated places. We found that agricultural and unmanaged wildlands are key land categories that transmit fire exposure to other land …

The Economic Contribution Of Stewardship Contracting: Two Case Studies From The Mount Hood National Forest, Jean M. Daniels, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Nathan Poage

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We conducted an economic analysis of two case study stewardship contracts on the Mount Hood National Forest in western Oregon. Stewardship contracting has been embraced by some federal managers to achieve restoration goals while providing economic benefits to local communities. Little is known about economic contributions from stewardship contracts, including how they compare against Secure Rural Schools funding or the century-old payments to counties revenue sharing system. Using expenditure data from sale purchasers, contractors, and fiscal agents, we developed methodology to track spending and used IMPLAN software to estimate economic contributions and multipliers. Results showed that (1) commercial thinning, service …

Assessing The Impacts Of Federal Forest Planning On Wildfire Risk Mitigation In The Pacific Northwest, Usa, Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Karen C. Short, Cody R. Evers

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent …

Climate And Bark Beetle Effects On Forest Productivity — Linking Dendroecology With Forest Landscape Modeling, Alec M. Kretchun, E. Louise Loudermilk, Robert M. Scheller, Matthew Hurteau, Soumaya Belmecher

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at multiple spatial scales and is essential for understanding regional forest response to changing climate. The mixed conifer forests of the Lake Tahoe Basin, California and Nevada, provide an opportunity to analyze biotic and abiotic influences on ANPP. Our objective was to evaluate the influence of moisture stress (climatic water deficit, CWD) and …

Modeling Predator Habitat To Enhance Reintroduction Planning, Shiloh Michael Halsey, William J. Zielinski, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Context

The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus).

Objectives

To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable …

Fire Modulates Climate Change Response Of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients In A Semi-Arid Montane Landscape, Jian Yang, Peter J. Weisberg, Douglas J. Shinneman, Thomas E. Dilts, Susan L. Earnst, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients.

Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients.

Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer …

Re-Envisioning Community-Wildfire Relations In The U.S. West As Adaptive Governance, Jesse B. Abrams, Melanie Knapp, Travis B. Paveglio, Autumn Ellison, Cassandra Moseley, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Matthew S. Carroll

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Prompted by a series of increasingly destructive, expensive, and highly visible wildfire crises in human communities across the globe, a robust body of scholarship has emerged to theorize, conceptualize, and measure community-level resilience to wildfires. To date, however, insufficient consideration has been given to wildfire resilience as a process of adaptive governance mediated by institutions at multiple scales. Here we explore the possibilities for addressing this gap through an analysis of wildfire resilience among wildland-urban interface communities in the western region of the United States. We re-engage important but overlooked components of social-ecological system resilience by situating rural communities within …

The Community Economic Impacts Of Large Wildfires: A Case Study From Trinity County, California, Emily Jane Davis, Cassandra Moseley, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Pamela J. Jakes

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of large wildfires in 2008 in Trinity County, California, by examining labor market, suppression spending, and qualitative interview data. We found that the 2008 fires had interrelated effects on several economic sectors in the county. Labor market data indicated a decrease in total private-sector employment and wages and an increase in public-sector employment and wages during the summer of 2008 compared to the previous year, while interviews captured …

Climate Change Effects On Northern Great Lake (Usa) Forests: A Case For Preserving Diversity, Matthew Joshua Duveneck, Robert M. Scheller, Mark A. White, Stephen D. Handler, Catherine Ravenscroft

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity …

Impacts Of Fire And Climate Change On Long-Term Nitrogen Availability And Forest Productivity In The New Jersey Pine Barrens, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Alec M. Kretchun, Kenneth L. Clark, John Hom

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had …

The Effects Of Large Wildfires On Employment And Wage Growth And Volatility In The Western United States, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cassandra Moseley, Krista Gebert

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examined the effect of large wildfires on economic growth and volatility in the western United States. We matched wildfire data with quarterly employment and earnings growth data to assess the specific effect of wildfire on employment and wage growth in western US counties. Wildfires generally tended to exhibit positive effects on employment and wage growth in the quarter(s) during which suppression efforts were active. However, this effect transitioned to increased economic volatility following a wildfire. The effect of wildfire also varied by the type of county in which wildfire occurred. The amount of suppression costs invested locally had the …

Job Growth And Loss Across Sectors And Time In The Western Us: The Impact Of Large Wildfires, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cassandra Moseley, Krista Gebert

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The link between economic growth and natural hazards has long been studied to better understand the effects of natural hazards on local, regional, and country level growth patterns. However, relatively little generalizable research has focused on wildfires, one of the most common forest disturbances in the western United States (US). We examined the effect of large wildfires on employment growth across sectors and time in the western US.We matched wildfire occurrences from 2004 to 2008 and their duration with monthly employment data to identify the effect of wildfire on employment growth. Wildfires generally tended to exhibit positive effects on employment …

Wood Microsites At Timberline-Alpine Meadow Borders: Implications For Conifer Seedling Regeneration And Alpine Meadow Conifer Invasion, Adelaide C. Johnson, J. Alan Yeakley

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The importance of climate warming on forests is recognized worldwide and has increased attention on the significance of both timberline advance and alpine meadow invasion by forests. Successful seedling regeneration in alpine meadows depends on availability of suitable substrates, or microsites, for seedling establishment. We sought to determine whether wood microsites (i.e., nurse logs), which are regeneration sites in Pacific Northwest subalpine forests, promoted regeneration at timberline-alpine meadow borders. To determine the ecological role of wood microsites, we examined mechanisms forming wood microsites; compared density, survival, and percent nitrogen content of seedlings growing on wood microsites to adjacent soil substrates; …

The Influence Of Market Proximity On National Forest Hazardous Fuels Treatments, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Susan Charnley, Cassandra Moseley

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The US Department of Agriculture Forest Service's focus on hazardous fuels reduction has increased since the adoption of the National Fire Plan in 2001. However, appropriations for hazardous fuels reduction still lag behind wildfire suppression spending. Offsetting fuels treatment costs through biomass utilization or by using innovative administrative mechanisms such as stewardship contracting are two approaches to stretching appropriated dollars further across the landscape. We use fuels treatment data (n = 8,451 locations) to ask how wood- processing infrastructure influences where and how much hazardous fuels treatments, biomass utilization, and stewardship contracting occur on national forests in Oregon and Washington. …

Woody Biomass Use Trends, Barriers, And Strategies: Perspectives Of Us Forest Service Managers, Shiloh Sundstrom, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cassandra Moseley, Sarah Mccaffery

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The use of woody biomass is being promoted across the United States as a means of increasing energy independence, mitigating climate change, and reducing the cost of hazardous fuels reduction treatments and forest restoration projects. The opportunities and challenges for woody biomass use on the national forest system are unique. In addition to making woody biomass usage pencil out, national forest managers must also navigate substantial public engagement and forest planning processes that add to the complexity of fostering woody biomass use opportunities on the national forest system. We report on the results of a survey of US Forest Service …

Forest Restoration In A Mixed-Ownership Landscape Under Climate Change, Catherine Ravenscroft, Robert M. Scheller, David J. Mladenoff, Mark A. White

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The article presents a study regarding forest management associated with climate change. It mentions that preservation endeavors and restoration schemes should diminish current threats like unsuited forest management and development while integrating possible effects of climate change. It also stresses that an adaptive approach to management can be the most efficient strategy of forest restoration given the doubts of climate change impacts.

Manejo De Cipós Na Amazônia, Jeffrey J. Gerwing, Edson Vidal

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Levantamentos florestais revelam que os cipós vêm se tornando cada vez mais abundantes em toda a Amazônia, tanto em florestas intactas quanto nas afetadas por atividades humanas, como a exploração de madeira. Nessa atividade, é recomendado o corte dos cipós ligados à árvore escolhida, para reduzir os danos às demais durante a queda. Conhecer a ecologia desse grupo de plantas e seu adequado manejo é essencial para entender as conseqüências do seu corte e para cumprir as metas de conservação da biodiversidade incluídas nos projetos de manejo de florestas tropicais.

Pre-Logging Liana Cutting Reduces Liana Regeneration In Logging Gaps In The Eastern Brazilian Amazon, Jeffrey J. Gerwing, Christopher Uhl

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The cutting of all lianas prior to logging is a reduced-impact logging technique that is predicted to reduce liana proliferation in logging gaps. This study compares liana abundance and species composition in gaps created during conventional and reduced-impact logging in a forest of the eastern Brazilian Amazon. Logging treatments were conducted in side-by-side plots. Shortly following logging, 50-m² plots were located in the approximate centers of four single treefall and four multiple treefall gaps in each logging area. Six years following logging, there were ∼40% fewer climbing lianas in reduced-impact gaps than in conventional logging gaps. In both logging …

Reducing Waste During Logging And Log Processing: Forest Conservation In Eastern Amazonia, Jeffrey J. Gerwing, Jennifer S. Johns, Edson Vidal

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This article describes the waste associated with logging and log processing in eastern Amazonia and suggests methods for reducing both waste and forest damage as a result of logging.