Forest Management Commons^™

Exploring And Testing Wildfire Risk Decision-Making In The Face Of Deep Uncertainty, Bart R. Johnson, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, David Hulse, Max Nielsen-Pincus, John P. Bolte

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We integrated a mechanistic wildfire simulation system with an agent-based landscape change model to investigate the feedbacks among climate change, population growth, development, landowner decision-making, vegetative succession, and wildfire. Our goal was to develop an adaptable simulation platform for anticipating risk-mitigation tradeoffs in a fire-prone wildland– urban interface (WUI) facing conditions outside the bounds of experience. We describe how five social and ecological system (SES) submodels interact over time and space to generate highly variable alternative futures even within the same scenario as stochastic elements in simulated wildfire, succession, and landowner decisions create large sets of unique, path-dependent futures for …

An Examination Of The Current Knowledge Of Contaminants In Mangroves: Hawaii And Globally, Geoffrey Szafranski

Environmental Science and Management Professional Master's Project Reports

The geographic range of mangrove forests is shifting quickly as they expand poleward in response to climate change while simultaneously being removed from their native extent to clear space for anthropogenic land-uses. Mangrove forests are also known to be sinks for anthropogenic contamination. Yet contamination research is under-researched in mangrove ecosystems, specifically the environmental fate, effect on biodiversity, and risk to human populations from contamination in the context of these changing conditions requires further research. The goal of this thesis is to address this data gap through analysis of contamination in the literature and through an investigational survey of mangrove …

Influence Of Climate Change On Forest Fire Occurrence And Distribution Of Sri Lanka And Modeling Of Forest Fire, Mohan Heenatigala

Environmental Science and Management Professional Master's Project Reports

Forest fire is one of the main causes for forest degradation and deforestation which affect ecosystem services provided by the given landscapes. Weather variables like temperature, wind speed and direction, rainfall, and relative humidity also govern the forest fire regime and vulnerability. On the other hand, forest fuel characteristics, human impacts, population density, forest canopy density, slope, elevation, road density, closeness to the human settlement areas are other factors that determine the forest fire impact and potential of damage. Annually, 100 to 2500 hectares of forest resources are damaged due to forest fires in Sri Lanka. From the past few …

Modeling Post-Fire Successional Trajectories Under Climate Change In Interior Alaska Using Landis Ii, Shelby A. Weiss

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

Alaska boreal forest ecosystems are experiencing a greater frequency of wildfire relative to the region’s historic fire regime. These increases in fire frequency, as well as annual burned area, increase the probability of forests re-burning within shorter intervals than were experienced historically. Such changes to the fire regime have the potential to shift successional trajectories in this ecosystem. To better understand potential changes in vegetation composition following short-interval, repeat fires, we are using LANDIS-II, a forest landscape model, to simulate changes in forest composition in response to climate change and increasing fire frequency. This seminar will include a description of …

Fire And Land Cover Change In The Palouse Prairie–Forest Ecotone, Washington And Idaho, Usa, Penelope Morgan, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Eva K. Strand, Stephen C. Bunting, James P. Riser Ii, John T. Abatzoglou, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mara Johnson

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Prairie–forest ecotones are ecologically important for biodiversity and ecological processes. While these ecotones cover small areas, their sharp gradients in land cover promote rich ecological interaction and high conservation value. Our objective was to understand how historical and current fire occurrences and human development influenced the Palouse Prairie–forest ecotone. We used General Land Office survey field notes about the occurrence of bearing trees to locate historical (1870s to 1880s) prairie, pine savanna, and forest at the eastern edge of the bioregion. We combined LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation classes to contrast historical land cover with current land cover. We reconstructed …

The Fire And Tree Mortality Database, For Empirical Modeling Of Individual Tree Mortality After Fire, C. Alina Cansler, Sharon M. Hood, J. Morgan Varner, Phillip J. Van Mantgem, Michelle C. Agne, Matthew Ayres, Robert A. Andrus, Jonathon D. Bakker, Michael A. Battaglia, Shelby A. Weiss, Multiple Additional Authors

Geography Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wildland fires have a multitude of ecological effects in forests, woodlands, and savannas across the globe. A major focus of past research has been on tree mortality from fire, as trees provide a vast range of biological services. We assembled a database of individual-tree records from prescribed fires and wildfires in the United States. The Fire and Tree Mortality (FTM) database includes records from 164,293 individual trees with records of fire injury (crown scorch, bole char, etc.), tree diameter, and either mortality or top-kill up to ten years post-fire. Data span 142 species and 62 genera, from 409 fires occurring …

Social Vulnerability To Large Wildfires In The Western Usa, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Federal land managers in the US can be informed with quantitative assessments of the social conditions of the populations affected by wildfires originating on their administered lands in order to incorporate and adapt their management strategy to achieve a more targeted prioritization of community wildfire protection investments. In addition, these assessments are valuable to socially vulnerable communities for quantifying their exposure to wildfires originating on adjacent land tenures. We assessed fire transmission patterns using fire behavior simulations to understand spatial variations across three diverse study areas (North-central Washington; Central California; and Northern New Mexico) to understand how different land tenures …

Four-Fold Increase In Solar Forcing On Snow In Western U.S. Burned Forests Since 1999, Kelly E. Gleason, Joseph R. Mcconnell, Monica M. Arienzo, Nathan Chellman, Wendy M. Calvin

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Forest fires are increasing across the American West due to climate warming and fire suppression. Accelerated snow melt occurs in burned forests due to increased light transmission through the canopy and decreased snow albedo from deposition of light-absorbing impurities. Using satellite observations, we document up to an annual 9% growth in western forests burned since 1984, and 5 day earlier snow disappearance persisting for >10 years following fire. Here, we show that black carbon and burned woody debris darkens the snowpack and lowers snow albedo for 15 winters following fire, using measurements of snow collected from seven forested sites that …

Spatial Factor Models For High-Dimensional And Large Spatial Data: An Application In Forest Variable Mapping, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez, Andrew O. Finley, Abhirup Datta, Chad Babcock, Hans-Erik Andersen, Bruce D. Cook, Douglas C. Morton, Sudipto Banerjee

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Gathering information about forest variables is an expensive and arduous activity. As such, directly collecting the data required to produce high-resolution maps over large spatial domains is infeasible. Next generation collection initiatives of remotely sensed Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data are specifically aimed at producing complete-coverage maps over large spatial domains. Given that LiDAR data and forest characteristics are often strongly correlated, it is possible to make use of the former to model, predict, and map forest variables over regions of interest. This entails dealing with the high-dimensional (∼10² ) spatially dependent LiDAR outcomes over a large number …

Using Transboundary Wildfire Exposure Assessments To Improve Fire Management Programs: A Case Study In Greece, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cody Evers, Kostas Kalabokidis

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Numerous catastrophic wildfires in Greece have demonstrated that relying on fire suppression as the primary risk-management strategy is inadequate and that existing wildfire-risk governance needs to be re-examined. In this research, we used simulation modelling to assess the spatial scale of wildfire exposure to communities and cultural monuments in Chalkidiki, Greece. The study area typifies many areas in Greece in terms of fire regimes, ownership patterns and fire-risk mitigation. Fire-transmission networks were built to quantify connectivity among land tenures and populated places. We found that agricultural and unmanaged wildlands are key land categories that transmit fire exposure to other land …

The Economic Contribution Of Stewardship Contracting: Two Case Studies From The Mount Hood National Forest, Jean M. Daniels, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Mike Paruszkiewicz, Nathan Poage

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We conducted an economic analysis of two case study stewardship contracts on the Mount Hood National Forest in western Oregon. Stewardship contracting has been embraced by some federal managers to achieve restoration goals while providing economic benefits to local communities. Little is known about economic contributions from stewardship contracts, including how they compare against Secure Rural Schools funding or the century-old payments to counties revenue sharing system. Using expenditure data from sale purchasers, contractors, and fiscal agents, we developed methodology to track spending and used IMPLAN software to estimate economic contributions and multipliers. Results showed that (1) commercial thinning, service …

Assessing The Effects Of Climate Change And Fuel Treatments On Forest Dynamics And Wildfire In Dry Mixed-Conifer Forests Of The Inland West: Linking Landscape And Social Perspectives, Brooke Alyce Cassell

Dissertations and Theses

Over the past century in the western United States, warming has produced larger and more severe wildfires than previously recorded. General circulation models and their ensembles project continued increases in temperature and the proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Warmer and wetter conditions may change forest successional trajectories by modifying rates of vegetation establishment, competition, growth, reproduction, and mortality. Many questions remain regarding how these changes will occur across landscapes and how disturbances, such as wildfire, may interact with changes to climate and vegetation. Forest management is used to proactively modify forest structure and composition to improve fire resilience. Yet, …

Effects Of Variable Density Thinning On Spatial Patterns Of Overstory Trees In Mt. Hood National Forest, Emma Huston

Environmental Science and Management Professional Master's Project Reports

Variable density thinning (VDT) is a method of restoration thinning that attempts to increase ecosystem resilience and spatial heterogeneity in forest stands to more closely resemble mosaic-like patterns characteristic of late-successional forests, which consist of clusters of multiple trees, individual trees, and gaps. This study examines the spatial patterning of overstory trees resulting from VDT of conifer forests in Mt. Hood National Forest in the western Cascade Mountains and compares these patterns with reference conditions. Stem maps were created from field surveys of study plots within one mature stand and six thinned stands designated as Late-Successional Reserve (LSR) with varying …

Do Forest Commons Contribute To International Environmental Initiatives? A Socio-Ecological Analysis Of Nepalese Forest Commons In View Of Redd+, Harisharan Luintel

Dissertations and Theses

Forests in developing countries have the potential to contribute to global efforts to mitigate climate change, promote biodiversity and support the livelihoods of rural, local people. Approximately one-fourth of such forests are under the control of local communities, which primarily manage forests for subsistence and to meet their livelihood needs. The trend of bottom-up community control is increasing through the adoption of decentralization reforms over the last 40 years. In contrast, the United Nations has introduced the top-down program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) for the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon and the sustainable management of …

Assessing The Impacts Of Federal Forest Planning On Wildfire Risk Mitigation In The Pacific Northwest, Usa, Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Karen C. Short, Cody R. Evers

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We analyzed the impact of amenity and biodiversity protection as mandated in national forest plans on the implementation of hazardous fuel reduction treatments aimed at protecting the wildland urban interface (WUI) and restoring fire resilient forests. We used simulation modeling to delineate areas on national forests that can potentially transmit fires to adjacent WUI. We then intersected these areas with national forest planning maps to determine where mechanical treatments are allowed for restoration and fire protection, versus areas where they are prohibited. We found that a large proportion of the national forest lands (79%) can spawn fires that burn adjacent …

Effects Of Selective Logging And Roads On Instream Fine Sediments And Macroinvertebrate Assemblages In The Clackamas Basin, Oregon, Paula Elizabeth Hood

Dissertations and Theses

Logging and associated skid trails, haul routes, and roads can have significant impacts on the magnitude and timing of sediments in streams in forested watersheds. Loss of vegetation, soil compaction, use of heavy logging equipment, and alteration of natural hydrologic patterns within the watershed can increase landslide rates, create erosion, and generate fine sediments. Selective logging, also called thinning, is a logging practice that leaves some trees within sale units unharvested. The ecological impacts of thinning on stream ecosystems are not fully understood and need further study. My hypothesis was that macroinvertebrate assemblages would be different in streams in non-reference …

Forest Park Ecosystems Services Inventory: An Exploratory Study, Pablo Barreyro, Jenny Dempsey Stein

Institute for Sustainable Solutions Publications and Presentations

This report presents both qualitative and quantitative survey data concerning resident perceptions of ecosystem services in Portland’s Forest Park. Focus group best practices and ecosystem services in urban parks literature are reviewed. Representative focus groups were conducted to ascertain local awareness and understanding of the urban wilderness area’s ecosystem services, identify concurrent challenges and measure interest in a potential interpretive center. Individual surveys were also administered in order to connect issues with demographics and recreational use information. Regression analyses were conducted to examine related park usage, access and economic trends.

While the study is preliminary, the results reveal opportunities for …

Modeling Predator Habitat To Enhance Reintroduction Planning, Shiloh Michael Halsey, William J. Zielinski, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Context

The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability of the species to establish a selfsustaining population is affected by predation from its primary predator, the bobcat (Lynx rufus).

Objectives

To develop a habitat model that incorporates both habitat of the focal species and the spatial patterning of predator habitat. To locate areas of densely aggregated habitat that would be suitable …

Fire Modulates Climate Change Response Of Simulated Aspen Distribution Across Topoclimatic Gradients In A Semi-Arid Montane Landscape, Jian Yang, Peter J. Weisberg, Douglas J. Shinneman, Thomas E. Dilts, Susan L. Earnst, Robert M. Scheller

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients.

Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients.

Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LAN DIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer …

The Community Economic Impacts Of Large Wildfires: A Case Study From Trinity County, California, Emily Jane Davis, Cassandra Moseley, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Pamela J. Jakes

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wildfires are increasing in severity and frequency in the American West, but there is limited understanding of their economic effects at the community level. We conducted a case study of the impacts of large wildfires in 2008 in Trinity County, California, by examining labor market, suppression spending, and qualitative interview data. We found that the 2008 fires had interrelated effects on several economic sectors in the county. Labor market data indicated a decrease in total private-sector employment and wages and an increase in public-sector employment and wages during the summer of 2008 compared to the previous year, while interviews captured …

The Effectiveness Of Forest Collaborative Groups At Reducing The Likelihood Of Project Appeals And Objections In Eastern Oregon, Brent M. Summers

Environmental Science and Management Professional Master's Project Reports

Collaborative planning has been used as a tool to address wicked natural resource conflicts and engage those affected by federal land management agency decisions. The United States Forest Service (USFS) is mandated by law to involve the public on project-level planning. In Oregon, Forest Collaborative Groups have been engaging with the USFS to involve stakeholders who are concerned with the activities on National Forests. It is widely believed that these groups are reducing project-level appeals and objections (appeals); however, there is no empirical evidence to validate these beliefs. National Environmental Protect Act (NEPA) document data were collected from the USFS …

Climate Change Effects On Northern Great Lake (Usa) Forests: A Case For Preserving Diversity, Matthew Joshua Duveneck, Robert M. Scheller, Mark A. White, Stephen D. Handler, Catherine Ravenscroft

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Under business as usual (BAU) management, stresses posed by climate change may exceed the ability of Great Lake forests to adapt. Temperature and precipitation projections in the Great Lakes region are expected to change forest tree species composition and productivity. It is unknown how a change in productivity and/or tree species diversity due to climate change will affect the relationship between diversity and productivity. We assessed how forests in two landscapes (i.e., northern lower Michigan and northeastern Minnesota, USA) would respond to climate change and explored the diversityproductivity relationship under climate change. In addition, we explored how tree species diversity …

Managing For Resistance And Resilience Of Northern Great Lakes Forests To The Effects Of Climate Change, Matthew Joshua Duveneck

Dissertations and Theses

Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to …

Impacts Of Fire And Climate Change On Long-Term Nitrogen Availability And Forest Productivity In The New Jersey Pine Barrens, Melissa S. Lucash, Robert M. Scheller, Alec M. Kretchun, Kenneth L. Clark, John Hom

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Increased wildfires and temperatures due to climate change are expected to have profound effects on forest productivity and nitrogen (N) cycling. Forecasts about how wildfire and climate change will affect forests seldom consider N availability, which may limit forest response to climate change, particularly in fire-prone landscapes. The overall objective of this study was to examine how wildfire and climate change affect long-term mineral N availability in a fire-prone landscape. We employed a commonly used landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) in the New Jersey Pine Barrens, a landscape characterized by frequent small fires and fire-resilient vegetation. We found that fire had …

The Effects Of Large Wildfires On Employment And Wage Growth And Volatility In The Western United States, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cassandra Moseley, Krista Gebert

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examined the effect of large wildfires on economic growth and volatility in the western United States. We matched wildfire data with quarterly employment and earnings growth data to assess the specific effect of wildfire on employment and wage growth in western US counties. Wildfires generally tended to exhibit positive effects on employment and wage growth in the quarter(s) during which suppression efforts were active. However, this effect transitioned to increased economic volatility following a wildfire. The effect of wildfire also varied by the type of county in which wildfire occurred. The amount of suppression costs invested locally had the …

Job Growth And Loss Across Sectors And Time In The Western Us: The Impact Of Large Wildfires, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Cassandra Moseley, Krista Gebert

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The link between economic growth and natural hazards has long been studied to better understand the effects of natural hazards on local, regional, and country level growth patterns. However, relatively little generalizable research has focused on wildfires, one of the most common forest disturbances in the western United States (US). We examined the effect of large wildfires on employment growth across sectors and time in the western US.We matched wildfire occurrences from 2004 to 2008 and their duration with monthly employment data to identify the effect of wildfire on employment growth. Wildfires generally tended to exhibit positive effects on employment …

Preserving Nature Through Film: Wilderness Alps Of Stehekin And The North Cascades, 1956-1968, Nicolas Timothy Bergmann

Dissertations and Theses

On March 22, 1958 David Brower's film Wilderness Alps of Stehekin premiered to an audience of conservationists in Seattle, Washington. Almost two years in the making, the thirty-one minute film advocated the preservation of nature in Washington's North Cascades through the creation of a national park. Over the next decade, Wilderness Alps of Stehekin became the most influential publicity tool in the struggle to preserve the North Cascades. Because of the region's geographic isolation, the film was the first time many people throughout the nation were exposed to the scenic grandeur of the area. Images of craggy peaks and colorful …

Wood Microsites At Timberline-Alpine Meadow Borders: Implications For Conifer Seedling Regeneration And Alpine Meadow Conifer Invasion, Adelaide C. Johnson, J. Alan Yeakley

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The importance of climate warming on forests is recognized worldwide and has increased attention on the significance of both timberline advance and alpine meadow invasion by forests. Successful seedling regeneration in alpine meadows depends on availability of suitable substrates, or microsites, for seedling establishment. We sought to determine whether wood microsites (i.e., nurse logs), which are regeneration sites in Pacific Northwest subalpine forests, promoted regeneration at timberline-alpine meadow borders. To determine the ecological role of wood microsites, we examined mechanisms forming wood microsites; compared density, survival, and percent nitrogen content of seedlings growing on wood microsites to adjacent soil substrates; …

The Influence Of Market Proximity On National Forest Hazardous Fuels Treatments, Max Nielsen-Pincus, Susan Charnley, Cassandra Moseley

Environmental Science and Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The US Department of Agriculture Forest Service's focus on hazardous fuels reduction has increased since the adoption of the National Fire Plan in 2001. However, appropriations for hazardous fuels reduction still lag behind wildfire suppression spending. Offsetting fuels treatment costs through biomass utilization or by using innovative administrative mechanisms such as stewardship contracting are two approaches to stretching appropriated dollars further across the landscape. We use fuels treatment data (n = 8,451 locations) to ask how wood- processing infrastructure influences where and how much hazardous fuels treatments, biomass utilization, and stewardship contracting occur on national forests in Oregon and Washington. …

Northwest Forest Plan The First 15 Years (1994-2008): Watershed Condition Status And Trend, Steven H. Lanigan, Sean N. Gordon, Peter Eldred, Mark Isley, Heidi Anderson

Institute for Sustainable Solutions Publications and Presentations

We used two data sets to evaluate stream and watershed condition for sixth-field watersheds in each aquatic province within the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area: stream data and upslope data. The stream evaluation was based on inchannel data (e.g., substrate, pieces of large wood, water temperature, pool frequency, and macroinvertebrates) we sampled from 2002 to 2009 (193 watersheds) as part of a repeating sample design. We just completed our first round of sampling, so only current condition was calculated for this data set. When condition scores for the inchannel data were grouped into categories, relatively few fell into the low …