Aquaculture and Fisheries Commons^™

Use Of Sarima Models To Assess Data-Poor Fisheries: A Case Study With A Sciaenid Fishery Off Portugal, Nuno Prista, Norou Diawara, Maria J. Costa, Cynthia M. Jones

OES Faculty Publications

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could …