Risk Analysis Commons^™

The Optimization Of Failure Risk Estimation On The Uniform Corrosion Rate With A Non-Linear Function, Fernanda Hartoyo, Jaka Fajar Fatriansyah, Imam Abdillah Mas'ud, Farhan Rama Digita, Hanna Ovelia, Datu Rizal Asral

Journal of Materials Exploration and Findings

Failures in the oil and gas pipeline system are conditions that must be avoided and anticipated because the losses due to the failures can occur at a very high level. Internal corrosion is one of the significant causes of the failures in pipeline systems. In addition, this type of corrosion is due to the high content of carbon dioxide and other corrosive substances in crude oil and natural gas. Therefore, an optimal inspection scheduling system is required to prevent the possibility of pipeline failures due to corrosion and to avoid any overspending on the budget due to excessive inspection scheduling. …

Eagle Medical Tray Denesting & Debris Removal Process, Nicholas Allen Ungefug, Noah Chavez, Susana Shu-Lin Okhuysen, Michael Augustine Pennington

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

Eagle Medical Incorporated is a contract medical device packaging and sterilization company. The company purchases thermoformed medical packaging trays, which maintain the sterility of medical devices, from various manufacturers. To ensure packaging quality and to prevent cleanroom contamination, Eagle Medical inspects and sterilizes each blister tray that they order. This process is an essential non-value-added activity that creates a bottleneck. Cleanroom employees must stop packaging medical devices and attend to the processing of blister trays and packaging solutions. The blister trays arrive at Eagle’s facility in nested stacks. Vibration and movement during shipping further compresses the stacks, which makes separation …

Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen

VMASC Publications

In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …

Patient Transport In The Time Of Covid-19: Using Health Care Failure Mode And Effect Analysis With Simulation To Test And Modify A Protocol, John Kwock, Jeffrey Holmes, Shelly Chipman, Erin Siebers, Angela Berry, Sonja Orff, Victoria Boutin, Leah Mallory

Journal of Maine Medical Center

Introduction: In March 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, an interprofessional, interdisciplinary team at Maine Medical Center used Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and in situ simulation to rapidly identify and mitigate latent safety threats (LST) in patient transport protocols.

Methods: Following HFMEA steps, stakeholders representing a variety of disciplines assembled to address transport of patients with COVID-19. A process map was created to describe the process. With hazard analysis using table-top simulation followed by in situ simulation, we identified, categorized, and scored LSTs. Mitigation strategies were identified during structured debriefing.

Results: Fourteen LSTs were identified in …

Uncertainties In Internal Pressure Of Oil Pipelines And Implications For The Reliability Analysis, Yue Liu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The internal pressure is the most important operational load for oil and gas pipelines. The maximum operating pressure (MOP) is the maximum pressure the pipeline is qualified to be operated according to a given standard. In deterministic fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment of in-service pipelines containing flaws such as corrosion defects and cracks, the remaining pressure containment capacity of the pipeline is evaluated and compared with MOP multiplied by a factor of safety to determine if immediate rehabilitation actions for the pipeline are necessary. However, the actual internal pressure of an in-service pipeline is however uncertain and fluctuates with time. Due to …

A System-Of-Systems Framework For Assessment Of Resilience In Complex Construction Projects, Jin Zhu

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Uncertainty is a major reason of low efficiency in construction projects. Traditional approaches in dealing with uncertainty in projects focus on risk identification, mitigation, and transfer. These risk-based approaches may protect projects from identified risks. However, they cannot ensure the success of projects in environments with deep uncertainty. Hence, there is a need for a paradigm shift from risk-based to resilience-based approaches. A resilience-based approach focuses on enhancing project resilience as a capability to cope with known and unknown uncertainty. The objective of this research is to fill the knowledge gap and create the theory of resilience in the context …

A Simulation Model For Decision Support In Business Continuity Planning, Marissa Anne Mosunich

Master's Theses

Enterprises with a global supply network are at risk of lost revenue as a result of disruptive disasters at supplier locations. Various strategies exist for addressing this risk, and a variety of types of research has been done regarding the identification, assessment and response to the risk of disruption in a supply chain network.

This thesis establishes a decision model to support Business Continuity Planning at the first-tier supplier level. The decision model incorporates discrete-event simulation of supply chain networks (through Simio software), Monte Carlo simulation, and risk index optimization. After modeling disruption vulnerability in a supply chain network, costs …

Evaluating The Consequences Of An Inland Waterway Port Closure With A Dynamic Multiregional Interdependence Model, Cameron A. Mackenzie, Kash Barker, F. Hank Grant

Cameron A. MacKenzie

As intermodal hubs connecting barge, train, and truck transportation modes, inland ports play an important role in U.S. and global commerce. Like coastal ports, inland ports face the risk of malevolent attacks, man-made accidents, and natural disasters. However, most port impact studies focus on the consequences of one of these disruptive events suddenly closing a coastal port. This paper examines the economic impact of suddenly closing an inland port by combining a simulation and a multiregional input-output model. The simulation models how companies may react if an inland waterway port suddenly closes, and the multiregional dynamic inoperability input-output model quantifies …

Sensitivity Analysis Framework For Large And Complex Simulation Models, Ghaith Rabadi, Shannon Bowling, Charles Keating, Resit Unal

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

In this paper, a framework for conducting Sensitivity Analysis (SA) on large and complex simulation models is introduced. The framework consists of components that are designed to make the SA a systematic process that is easy to manage and follow by simulation analysts and practitioners. Unlike local SA (one-variable-at-a-time SA), the method presented here is variance-based and it is rooted in the field of Design of Experiments (DoE) where Input Variables are varied and Output Variables are measured. Based on the DoE results, a risk scoring system is developed to identify the sensitivity of the Input Variables, and as a …