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Full-Text Articles in Risk Analysis
Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen
Development Of A Framework To Support Informed Shipbuilding Based On Supply Chain Disruptions, Katherine Smith, Rafael Diaz, Yuzhong Shen
VMASC Publications
In addition to stresses induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, supply chains worldwide have been growing more complex while facing a continuous onslaught of disruptions. This paper presents an analysis and extension of a graph based model for modeling and simulating the effects of such disruptions. The graph based model combines a Bayesian network approach for simulating risks with a network dependency analysis approach for simulating the propagation of disruptions through the network over time. The initial analysis provides evidence supporting extension to for using a multi-layered approach allowing for the inclusion of cyclic features in supply chain models. Initial results …
A System-Of-Systems Framework For Assessment Of Resilience In Complex Construction Projects, Jin Zhu
A System-Of-Systems Framework For Assessment Of Resilience In Complex Construction Projects, Jin Zhu
FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Uncertainty is a major reason of low efficiency in construction projects. Traditional approaches in dealing with uncertainty in projects focus on risk identification, mitigation, and transfer. These risk-based approaches may protect projects from identified risks. However, they cannot ensure the success of projects in environments with deep uncertainty. Hence, there is a need for a paradigm shift from risk-based to resilience-based approaches. A resilience-based approach focuses on enhancing project resilience as a capability to cope with known and unknown uncertainty. The objective of this research is to fill the knowledge gap and create the theory of resilience in the context …
Sensitivity Analysis Framework For Large And Complex Simulation Models, Ghaith Rabadi, Shannon Bowling, Charles Keating, Resit Unal
Sensitivity Analysis Framework For Large And Complex Simulation Models, Ghaith Rabadi, Shannon Bowling, Charles Keating, Resit Unal
Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications
In this paper, a framework for conducting Sensitivity Analysis (SA) on large and complex simulation models is introduced. The framework consists of components that are designed to make the SA a systematic process that is easy to manage and follow by simulation analysts and practitioners. Unlike local SA (one-variable-at-a-time SA), the method presented here is variance-based and it is rooted in the field of Design of Experiments (DoE) where Input Variables are varied and Output Variables are measured. Based on the DoE results, a risk scoring system is developed to identify the sensitivity of the Input Variables, and as a …