Risk Analysis Commons^™

Airspace Saturation And Midair Collision Risk: A Case Study At A Class D Airport, Luigi Raphael I. Dy, John H. Mott

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Near midair collisions are precursor events to actual collisions and may be an indicator of risk. While previous studies have used reports of near midair collisions to relate factors such as airspace saturation to near midair collisions, the reports relied upon were generally subjective in nature. With the adoption of automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B), the approximate position of every equipped aircraft can be recorded. A six-month case study was performed at the Purdue University airport to relate the number of 1000-foot proximity events to airspace saturation, and whether the Class D airspace affected this relationship. Through a logistic regression analysis, …

Ground Risk Model For Uavs, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper develops an alternative to the ground risk model provided by JARUS SORA. Key inconsistencies in the SORA ground risk model are identified, specifically ground risk continuing to increase when there is no further increase in fatality probability.

Population density is a critical component of UAS ground risk. Definitions of population density adopted by various regulatory jurisdictions are reviewed. A categorisation of population density is developed based on official statistics categories for New Zealand. This categorisation is more granular than that provided by SORA, enabling a more nuanced assessment of risk.

A ground risk model is then developed using …

Quantum Safety Metrics Framework For Commercial Unmanned Aircraft Operators, Tracy L. Lamb, Nathan A. Phillips, Trong Van Nguyen

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Commercial unmanned aircraft systems continue to increase in applications and diversity; however, mishaps and accidents erode safety, investment return, and efficiency. Most unmanned aircraft accidents are preceded by leading indicators; the ability to forecast and quantify these may provide increased safety and profitability. This mixed-method research study used a non-experimental parallel convergence approach with multiple instruments, multiple-case study n = 22, and one exemplar case design to develop a quantum safety metric program. This study used a combination of previously validated methods as development instruments, including; the HFACS, STAMP, 'Sierra Scale,' and Accident Prevention Effort equations. The study extended the …

Characteristics Of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male And Female Pilots, Scott S. Burgess, Robert O. Walton, P. Michael Politano

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The data …

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems …