Risk Analysis Commons^™

Airspace Saturation And Midair Collision Risk: A Case Study At A Class D Airport, Luigi Raphael I. Dy, John H. Mott

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Near midair collisions are precursor events to actual collisions and may be an indicator of risk. While previous studies have used reports of near midair collisions to relate factors such as airspace saturation to near midair collisions, the reports relied upon were generally subjective in nature. With the adoption of automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B), the approximate position of every equipped aircraft can be recorded. A six-month case study was performed at the Purdue University airport to relate the number of 1000-foot proximity events to airspace saturation, and whether the Class D airspace affected this relationship. Through a logistic regression analysis, …

Ground Risk Model For Uavs, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper develops an alternative to the ground risk model provided by JARUS SORA. Key inconsistencies in the SORA ground risk model are identified, specifically ground risk continuing to increase when there is no further increase in fatality probability.

Population density is a critical component of UAS ground risk. Definitions of population density adopted by various regulatory jurisdictions are reviewed. A categorisation of population density is developed based on official statistics categories for New Zealand. This categorisation is more granular than that provided by SORA, enabling a more nuanced assessment of risk.

A ground risk model is then developed using …

Quantum Safety Metrics Framework For Commercial Unmanned Aircraft Operators, Tracy L. Lamb, Nathan A. Phillips, Trong Van Nguyen

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Commercial unmanned aircraft systems continue to increase in applications and diversity; however, mishaps and accidents erode safety, investment return, and efficiency. Most unmanned aircraft accidents are preceded by leading indicators; the ability to forecast and quantify these may provide increased safety and profitability. This mixed-method research study used a non-experimental parallel convergence approach with multiple instruments, multiple-case study n = 22, and one exemplar case design to develop a quantum safety metric program. This study used a combination of previously validated methods as development instruments, including; the HFACS, STAMP, 'Sierra Scale,' and Accident Prevention Effort equations. The study extended the …

Analysis Of Runway Incursion Trends: Implications For Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Mitigation Investments, David C. Ison

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This causal-comparative and correlation study investigated the costs of runway incursion safety improvements in relation to their effectiveness to assess potential aviation system benefits.Two airports (Los Angeles International and Dallas-Ft. Worth International), which were early adopters of Runway Status Lights (RWSL), a runway incursion technology, were targeted in this analysis. Findings indicated that there were no significant differences in counts or rates of Category A, B, and D incursions at LAX and DFW when comparing the time periods before versus after RWSL installation. Category C counts and rates were found to have increased significantly after RWSL installation. The findings of …

Characteristics Of Helicopter Accidents Involving Male And Female Pilots, Scott S. Burgess, Robert O. Walton, P. Michael Politano

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Studies examining aviation accidents have not found differences in accident rates by gender, though there may be gender differences in the types of accident. Baker, Lamb, Grabowski, and Rebok (2001) examined fixed-wing aviation accident rates of male and female private pilots and found that males were more likely to have accidents related to inattention or poor planning while female pilots were more likely to have accidents due to mishandling the aircraft. This research analyzed the National Transportation Safety Board’s aviation accident database system to examine the severity of injury and aircraft damage in rotary-wing (helicopter) accidents by gender. The data …

Subjectivity In Failure Mode Effects Analysis (Fmea) Severity Classification Within A Reliability Centered Maintenance (Rcm) Context, Marc Banghart, Kari Babski-Reeves, Linkan Bian, Lesley Strawderman

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This research paper investigated subjectivity in the severity rating of failure modes within a risk analysis process. Although several risk analysis processes can be utilized, the study considered the application of Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA) or Failure Modes Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) due to its common use within the Aerospace Industry. The study investigated both differences in severity selection given varying amounts of experience as well as any association between severity selection and the provided input information. The main goal of the research was to investigate the impact of data quality on severity selection and to identify factors …

Identification Of Reverse Engineering Candidates Utilizing Machine Learning And Aircraft Cannibalization Data, Marc Banghart

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As military aircraft continue to remain in service and age, cannibalization of parts is increasing. Proactive identification of parts that are at high risk for cannibalization will inform engineering processes such as reverse engineering, thus allowing potentially reducing lead time to develop new parts. The research objective was to develop a causal structure that can be used for prediction of when cannibalization actions may occur. Bayesian networks allow encoding of causality between various descriptive features given a data set. The method utilized a tabu search algorithm, identified the underlying causal structure and the associated node probabilities. The method is then …

A Model Of Human Harm From A Falling Unmanned Aircraft: Implications For Uas Regulation, Andrew V. Shelley

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

This paper quantifies the human harm, in the form of fatalities and skull fractures, which could occur as a result of an unmanned aircraft falling from a height. The analysis is used to establish the maximum height at which an unmanned aircraft can be flown over people to achieve a level of safety consistent with the rate of ground fatalities from General Aviation. The maximum height is dependent on the aircraft mass and the population density of people on the ground below.

The results are used to inform a critical evaluation of recent recommendations from the FAA-chartered “Unmanned Aircraft Systems …

System Safety Modeling Of Alternative Geofencing Configurations For Small Uas, James T. Luxhoj

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

As is well known, the integration of small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) or “drones” into the National Airspace System (NAS) has captured significant industry, academic, regulatory and media attention. For sUAS that typically fly low and slow, the possibility of a mid-air collision with a nearby general aviation aircraft needs to be studied from a system safety perspective to identify possible hazards and to assess mitigations. The Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM) is a first-generation socio-technical model that uses a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology to integrate possible hazards to assess a non-linear safety risk metric. Using inductive logic, the …

Not-So-Risky Business? Assessing The Risk Of Integrating Large Rpvs Into The Current Air Traffic System, Hans-Joachim K. Ruff-Stahl, Steven Esser, Dirk Farsch, Thomas Graner, Robert Klein, Christian Schneidt, Stefan Schoenborn

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

In spite of considerable efforts to commercialize large remotely piloted vehicles (RPV), an integration of these RPVs into the existing Air Transportation System (ATS) and Airspace Structure is pending. The purpose of this paper was to assess the risks of an exemplary integration of a Heron 1 type RPV into the existing European air space structure within the current regulatory framework and without the availability of sense and avoid technology. Six incident occurrence scenarios were investigated, based on a modified Fault Tree Analysis and Eurocontrol’s risk matrix. It was found that without the implementation of technological or procedural changes, an …