Risk Analysis Commons^™

Quantifying Hurricane Effects On Housing: Evaluating Damage, Loss, And Shelter Demands Using Historical And Simulated Storm Tracks, Adish Deep Shakya

All Theses

This research introduces an advanced framework which employs parametric wind field models for peak wind speeds, and building fragility curves, loss functions, and demographic data to estimate for estimating housing damage and loss. The uninhabitable units immediate displaced households, short-term and long-term shelter need households are determined. with a particular focus on those eligible for FEMA assistance. The framework's validity is reinforced by a high correlation in the analysis of recent hurricane events between estimated numbers of displaced households and actual FEMA aid recipients, where FEMA aids about 20-60% of the predicted long-term displaced households. A novel application of the …

Sustainable Water Treatment Systems In The La Vega Region Of The Dominican Republic, Hannah Fulton, Justina Thomae, Jorge Del Angel, Ramin Ansari, Karina Peate, Rylan Elliott, Adam Spieth, Thalia May, Morgan Jung, Ernest R. Blatchley Iii, Rebecca C. Johnson

Graduate Industrial Research Symposium

Purdue University's service-learning course, Water Supply in Developing Countries (WSDC) is dedicated to ensuring access to safe drinking water in the La Vega region of the Dominican Republic. The focus in the current academic year is to enhance the functionality, sustainability, and independence of community-based water treatment systems installed by previous WSDC students. Despite the construction of four water systems since 2012, operational challenges ensued, rendering them currently inoperable. Our objective is to learn from past mistakes, restore the systems and ensure their continuous functionality. During the fall semester, class members assessed repair needs in two communities with existing systems, …

Containerization Of Seafarers In The International Shipping Industry: Contemporary Seamanship, Maritime Social Infrastructures, And Mobility Politics Of Global Logistics, Liang Wu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation discusses the mobility politics of container shipping and argues that technological development, political-economic order, and social infrastructure co-produce one another. Containerization, the use of standardized containers to carry cargo across modes of transportation that is said to have revolutionized and globalized international trade since the late 1950s, has served to expand and extend the power of international coalitions of states and corporations to control the movements of commodities (shipments) and labor (seafarers). The advent and development of containerization was driven by a sociotechnical imaginary and international social contract of seamless shipping and cargo flows. In practice, this liberal, …

Recommendations On Flood Management At Cengkareng Drain Estuary In Enhancing Estuary Resilience To Compound Hazard, Athena Hastomo, Evi Anggraheni, Adi Prasetyo, Dwita Sutjiningsih

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

Jakarta's coastal region, characterized by dense settlements and industrial zones, faces significant flood risks due to land subsidence and rising sea levels, exacerbated by human activities and climate change. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the National Capital Integrated Coastal Development (NCICD) project, which proposes embankments along Jakarta's coast for enhanced flood resilience. Focusing on the Cengkareng Drain estuary, two-dimensional HEC-RAS simulations were employed. This study incorporates various factors such as precipitation, tides, waves, rising sea levels, and land subsidence to model extreme flood scenarios. The analysis reveals key strategies to improve flood management. Firstly, introducing new pumping stations and …

Climate Change Impact On Bridge Scour Risk In Ny State: A Gis-Based Risk Analysis Model, Muhammad Hassan Butt

Publications and Research

Bridge scour, the primary cause of bridge failure in the United States, escalates post-severe storms, necessitating effective mitigation. This study employs a GIS-based risk analysis model to assess climate change's impact on bridge scour and associated risks in New York State. Data from the National Bridge Inventory, climate hazard maps, and geospatial data are integrated.

Integrating Steel Slag Aggregates Into Asphalt Paving By Harmonizing Availability, Quality, Economics, And The Environment, Timothy R. Murphy

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides guidance on how to balance matters related to the environmental stewardship, market sources, origin and uses, material properties, performance, and economic impact of using slag materials in pavements. The literature on this topic provides numerous references on the use of slag materials for specific applications, and this thesis aims to make use of those references along with other data from the author to describe slag materials from a holistic perspective and provide some suggestions for balancing several factors that impact optimal use of this resource within pavement structures. Discussion is given to the increased importance of recycling …

Machine Learning-Based Data And Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification Of Inverse Problems For Suspended Non-Structural System, Zhiyuan Qin

All Dissertations

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and …

Flood Risk Data For Highway Projects, Nabil Ghalayini

Purdue Road School

This presentation will provide project managers and engineers with a clear understanding of available FEMA Risk MAP flood hazard data to better inform project design. This presentation will broadly define flood risk, review the FEMA flood risk database as a source of risk parameters, contrast the regulatory Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) with Risk MAP depth and probability grids, and highlight the variability of risk within the SFHA.

On A New Framework For Detecting, Classifying, And Forecasting Floods For Large-Scale Flood Risk Analysis, Equisha Glenn

Dissertations and Theses

Increasing trends in flooding events are projected to continue as climate changes have increased the chance of extreme weather events. Given the significant, damaging impacts of extreme floods, the ability to effectively model floods is crucial for risk management and mitigation of the impacts of these extreme flooding events. This dissertation presents a new framework for detecting and predicting large-scale flood risk in the United States using climate information. This methodology categorizes regional, simultaneous floods into an index that is used to forecast the risk of extreme flooding a season ahead. The index proposed herein, named the Spatial Flood Index …

Seismic Performance Assessment Of Building Contents: Monetary Losses And Injuries, Sereen Majdalaweyh

All Dissertations

Building contents include all the components that are not attached to the building which the owners place after the construction phase, such as furniture, electrical equipment, glassware, and other personal items. Loss and damage assessment of building contents proved to be challenging in performance-based earthquake engineering frameworks because of the data sparsity. Damages to building contents during an earthquake not only cause monetary losses; tumbling and over-toppling of heavy building contents could result in injuries and even deaths of occupants. While major advancements have been made in performance-based earthquake engineering; however, the focus is mainly on damages and collapse risk …

Geological Origin As An Input Variable In Reliability-Based Designs: For An Accurate Exploration In Geotechnical Engineering, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio

Conference papers

Soil is one of the most difficult materials to characterize realistically, which partly explains the uncertainty between the designs and the geostructures real behavior. Different recommendations have arisen with respect to carrying out field investigations in order to reduce the uncertainties inherent to the soil. However, the field exploration and the implementation of sophisticated geotechnical models have proven to be insufficient to mitigate the geotechnical uncertainty. Therefore, Reliability-Based Designs (RBD) emerge as a decision-making tool through the definition of the probability of failure in conjunction with the typical Factors of Safety. RBD requires a previous understanding of the most appropriate …

Uncertainties In Internal Pressure Of Oil Pipelines And Implications For The Reliability Analysis, Yue Liu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The internal pressure is the most important operational load for oil and gas pipelines. The maximum operating pressure (MOP) is the maximum pressure the pipeline is qualified to be operated according to a given standard. In deterministic fitness-for-service (FFS) assessment of in-service pipelines containing flaws such as corrosion defects and cracks, the remaining pressure containment capacity of the pipeline is evaluated and compared with MOP multiplied by a factor of safety to determine if immediate rehabilitation actions for the pipeline are necessary. However, the actual internal pressure of an in-service pipeline is however uncertain and fluctuates with time. Due to …

Probabilistic Analysis Of The Active Earth Pressure On Earth Retaining Walls For C‑Φ Soils According To The Mazindrani And Ganjali Method, Julian Osorio, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio

Articles

The determination of the earth pressure coefficients (K) in geotechnical engineering is one of the most critical procedures in designing earth retaining walls. However, most earth pressure theories are made for either clay or sands, where the c-ϕ soils are the least analysed. In this paper, an analysis of the earth pressure for drained mixed soils based in Mazindrani and Ganjali (J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 123:110–112, 1997) theory was carried out. Earth pressure coefficients are generally used in a deterministic way and can represent designs under an inadmissible risk. Therefore, Reliability-based design arises as an essential tool to deal with …

Assessment Of Contract Terms And Conditions For Lump-Sum Contracts, Omar Othman

Theses and Dissertations

A Contract is a tool that defines the obligations of the contracting parties and assigns the risk between them. Contracts are usually drafted to meet the interests of the owner by addressing the legal issues and liabilities. Meanwhile, less emphasis is placed on clearly communicating the contract terms and ensuring that all contracting parties comprehend their risks and obligations. In a country like Egypt, which has faced drastic economic and political changes in the past few years, and yet is experiencing a boom in the construction sector, many developers tend to draft contracts that might be legally complicated or lacks …

Study Of Fragility Functions For Assessing Damage To Water Pipe Networks Caused By Earthquake Loading, Dylan Joseph Merlo

Master's Theses

The performance of water lifelines during seismic events is an area of ongoing research. In this study we evaluate eight (8) different seismic events and the impact that ground shaking and ground deformations had on water pipeline systems. The overall goal of this work is to provide municipalities and utility providers with tools for mitigating the consequences of seismic hazards on water lifeline systems by analyzing the accuracy of damage estimation models. Three (3) different repair rate models are evaluated using data collected from the seismic events and compared to observed repair rate data. Results are analyzed to examine the …

Identification Of Secondary Traffic Crashes And Recommended Countermeasures, Armana Sabiha Huq

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Secondary crashes (SCs) usually occur due to congestion or other prior incidents. SCs are increasingly spotted as a significant issue in traffic operations, leading to reduced capacity, extra traffic delays, increased fuel consumption, and additional emissions. SCs have substantial impacts on traffic management resource allocation. One of the challenges in the traffic safety area of the transportation industry is to determine an adequate method for identifying SCs. The specific objectives of this study are: identification of SCs using spatiotemporal criteria and exploring the contributing risk factors to the identified SCs.

Two different approaches were explored to identify SCs. The first …

Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson

Wrack Lines

Issue theme is: "Making Connections: As the Climate Changes, People and Nature Intertwine in New Ways." Articles include: "As More Roads Become Rivers, Communities Search for Solutions;" "Solving an Engineering Conundrum: As Coastal Homes Get Elevated, New Research Looks at Whether Vulnerability to Wind Damage Is Increasing;" "Along the Coast, Residents Consider How to Heed Sandy's Warning of What's to Come;" "All Rivers, All Lives Run to the Sea," about the intersection of waterways and the world of nature writer Edwin Way Teale; and "Crosscurrents: Connecticut Sea Grant's Retrospective Exhibition Makes Waves," about reaching new audiences and building bridges with …

A Unified Risk-Based Framework For Assessing Sustainability And Resiliency Of Civil Infrastructure, Thomas Adam Robbins

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

As of February 2019, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has reported since 1880 the average global temperature has increased 1°C, with the warmest year on record being 2016. As the years continue to pass, it is becoming more evident that climate change is occurring, which is known to be a catalyst for climatic weather events. Statistically speaking, these events are more prevalent, and catastrophic exemplified as hurricanes, earthquakes, flooding, and fires. In addition to the increase of potentially catastrophic events, society as a whole has become more conscientious in the use and preservation of natural resources, waste generation, …

Seismic Performance Of Earth Slopes Subjected To Earthquake Mainshock – Aftershock Sequences, Alisha Khanal

Civil Engineering Theses

Mainshocks are usually followed by aftershocks. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock – aftershock sequence. Typically, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding …

Left Turn Safety: Preventing Injury And Death Through Signs And Signaling, Elizabeth Webb

Student Writing

Thousands of accidents each year are precipitated by drivers making a left turn within an intersection. These accidents tend to be caused primarily by driver error, confusing signaling or high rates of speed by through traffic. Extensive research suggests that reducing the rate of speed of through traffic, implementing warning signs with flashers along a roadway, adjusting the traffic signal phasing at an intersection, and utilizing creative intersection designs are all options which are available to combat these concerns and substantially minimize risks to all drivers. A recent fatal accident in Spotsylvania County highlights the need for intersection improvement at …

Latex Modified Concrete - Very Early Strength, Bobby Steele

Purdue Road School

INDOT came out with specifications for a very early strength concrete to use on bridge deck overlays. This concrete is fast setting, which allows overlays to be performed over a weekend and benefits the traveling public with a short duration of traffic interference. Cure time to reach the strength requirement is 3 hours. E&B Paving performed the first application with the new spec on August 26, 2018. Many changes were also made to the INDOT Specification Section 722.

Influence Of Limit Equilibrium Methods In The Design Of Contiguous Cantilever Sheet Pile Walls Through Reliability-Based Analysis, Alvaro J. Mattos, Juan Camilo Viviescas, Juan Pablo Osorio

Conference papers

In geotechnical engineering the design of bored- pile walls is commonly performed in terms of the embedment length (D) defined according to the limit equilibrium methods (also known as balance methods) formulated by Krey, Blum, Rowe, Hansen and the empirical method of Look in sandy soils. The limit equilibrium methods are calculations associated with the shape of the earth pressures distributions in the shaft, earth pressures theories, geotechnical properties and safety factors, while the empirical criteria establish that the relationship between embedment and the free height (H) is of the order of D/H = 1.5. These design methods are complemented …

Lecture 1: Stochastic Hydrology, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

This is the first lecture of CE 5500: Stochastic Hydrology, taught by Julianne Quinn at the University of Virginia.

Ce 5500: Stochastic Hydrology, University Of Virginia, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

This document is the syllabus for CE 5500: Stochastic Hydrology by instructor Julianne D. Quinn at the University of Virginia. The course is an elective class, open to upper-level undergraduate and graduate students.

Extra-Terrestrial Habitat Systems: Safety, Reliability, And Resilience, Jory C. Lyons Jr., Amin Maghareh, Audai Theinat, Shirley Dyke, Antonio Bobet

The Summer Undergraduate Research Fellowship (SURF) Symposium

Developing a resilient extra-terrestrial habitat with regards to long-term reliability and safety from hazards including radiation, meteorites, and quakes is necessary to ensure human survival during interplanetary exploration. The objective of this study is to examine conventional aerospace safety and reliability analysis techniques to investigate whether they are sufficient to achieve resilience in extra-terrestrial habitats. These results will be obtained to complete a strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis of compiled techniques to design a sustainable habitat system. Failure modes, effects, and criticality analysis (FMECA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) with their past applications will be assessed to provide …

Transforming Yekaterinburg Into A Safe, Resilient-Smart And Sustainable City, S. A. Timashev, V. N. Alekhin, L. V. Poluyan, I. Fontanals, A. Gheorghe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The initiative (since 2014) project described in this paper is a product of a joint innovative research and implementation effort of the Civil Engineering and Architecture Institute, Ural Federal University, the Science and Engineering Centre "Reliability and Safety of Large Systems and Machines", Ural Branch Russian Academy of Sciences (both Yekaterinburg), Start-up OptiCits, Barcelona, Spain and the Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA. The project is based on using the MAICS convergent technology [1] to create a versatile multi-purpose tool for optimizing the science and art of risk based governance of resilience-smart and sustainable city infrastructure and communities operating in …

Numerical Modeling And Seismic Assessment Of Smart Isolation System For High-Speed Railway Rc Bridge Subjected To Near-Field Ground Motions, Lingkun Chen

The 8th International Conference on Physical and Numerical Simulation of Materials Processing

No abstract provided.

A System-Of-Systems Framework For Assessment Of Resilience In Complex Construction Projects, Jin Zhu

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Uncertainty is a major reason of low efficiency in construction projects. Traditional approaches in dealing with uncertainty in projects focus on risk identification, mitigation, and transfer. These risk-based approaches may protect projects from identified risks. However, they cannot ensure the success of projects in environments with deep uncertainty. Hence, there is a need for a paradigm shift from risk-based to resilience-based approaches. A resilience-based approach focuses on enhancing project resilience as a capability to cope with known and unknown uncertainty. The objective of this research is to fill the knowledge gap and create the theory of resilience in the context …

Quantitative Risk Evaluation Of Obstacle Limitation Surfaces For Final Approaches At Airports, Amila Silva, Alexandre G. De Barros

Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering

Obstacle limitation surfaces (OLS) are the main safeguard against objects that can pose a hazard to aircraft operations at and around airports. The standard dimensions of the most of those surfaces were estimated using the pilot’s experience at the time when they were included in the standard documents. As a result, some of these standards may have been overestimated, while others may not provide an adequate level of safety. With airports moving to the Safety Management System (SMS) approach to design and operations safety, proper evaluation of the level of safety provided by OLS at specific sites becomes important to …

Safety Implications Of Transit Operator Schedule Policies, Hung Hoang

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In the bus transit community, driving long hours or spending extra hours at work are very common. This is true in the State of Florida, where bus transit is a very popular mode of public transportation. Although the correlation between a bus driver’s schedule and a crash event appears intuitive, further study regarding the effects of operator driving schedules on accident rates is needed to evaluate safety measures. The focus of this research is on the examination of bus driver schedules, and the effects of scheduling on accident rates in Florida. Data were collected at five bus transit agencies including …