Risk Analysis Commons^™

Cost-Risk Analysis Of The Ercot Region Using Modern Portfolio Theory, Megan Sickinger

Master's Theses

In this work, we study the use of modern portfolio theory in a cost-risk analysis of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Based upon the risk-return concepts of modern portfolio theory, we develop an n-asset minimization problem to create a risk-cost frontier of portfolios of technologies within the ERCOT electricity region. The levelized cost of electricity for each technology in the region is a step in evaluating the expected cost of the portfolio, and the historical data of cost factors estimate the variance of cost for each technology. In addition, there are several constraints in our minimization problem to …

Bidding Strategy For A Wind Power Producer In Us Energy And Reserve Markets, Anne Stratman

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Wind power is one of the world's fastest-growing renewable energy resources and has expanded quickly within the US electric grid. Currently, wind power producers (WPPs) may sell energy products in US markets but are not allowed to sell reserve products, due to the uncertain and intermittent nature of wind power. However, as wind’s share of the power supply grows, it may eventually be necessary for WPPs to contribute to system-wide reserves. This paper proposes a stochastic optimization model to determine the optimal offer strategy for a WPP that participates in the day-ahead and real-time energy and spinning reserve markets. The …

Multi-Objective Radiological Analysis In Real Environments, David Raji

Doctoral Dissertations

Designing systems to solve problems arising in real-world radiological scenarios is a highly challenging task due to the contextual complexities that arise. Among these are emergency response, environmental exploration, and radiological threat detection. An approach to handling problems for these applications with explicitly multi-objective formulations is advanced. This is brought into focus with investigation of a number of case studies in both natural and urban environments. These include node placement in and path planning through radioactivity-contaminated areas, radiation detection sensor network measurement update sensitivity, control schemes for multi-robot radioactive exploration in unknown environments, and adversarial analysis for an urban nuclear …

Reducing Food Scarcity: The Benefits Of Urban Farming, S.A. Claudell, Emilio Mejia

Journal of Nonprofit Innovation

Urban farming can enhance the lives of communities and help reduce food scarcity. This paper presents a conceptual prototype of an efficient urban farming community that can be scaled for a single apartment building or an entire community across all global geoeconomics regions, including densely populated cities and rural, developing towns and communities. When deployed in coordination with smart crop choices, local farm support, and efficient transportation then the result isn’t just sustainability, but also increasing fresh produce accessibility, optimizing nutritional value, eliminating the use of ‘forever chemicals’, reducing transportation costs, and fostering global environmental benefits.

Imagine Doris, who is …

Machine Learning-Based Data And Model Driven Bayesian Uncertanity Quantification Of Inverse Problems For Suspended Non-Structural System, Zhiyuan Qin

All Dissertations

Inverse problems involve extracting the internal structure of a physical system from noisy measurement data. In many fields, the Bayesian inference is used to address the ill-conditioned nature of the inverse problem by incorporating prior information through an initial distribution. In the nonparametric Bayesian framework, surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes or Deep Neural Networks are used as flexible and effective probabilistic modeling tools to overcome the high-dimensional curse and reduce computational costs. In practical systems and computer models, uncertainties can be addressed through parameter calibration, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification, leading to improved reliability and robustness of decision and …

Modernization Of Scienttific Mathematics Formula In Technology, Iwasan D. Kejawa Ed.D, Prof. Iwasan D. Kejawa Ed.D

Department of Mathematics: Faculty Publications

Abstract
Is it true that we solve problem using techniques in form of formula? Mathematical formulas can be derived through thinking of a problem or situation. Research has shown that we can create formulas by applying theoretical, technical, and applied knowledge. The knowledge derives from brainstorming and actual experience can be represented by formulas. It is intended that this research article is geared by an audience of average knowledge level of solving mathematics and scientific intricacies. This work details an introductory level of simple, at times complex problems in a mathematical epidermis and computability and solvability in a Computer Science. …

Stock Markets Performance During A Pandemic: How Contagious Is Covid-19?, Yara Abushahba

Theses and Dissertations

Background and Motivation: The coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the subsequent policies and lockdowns have unarguably led to an unprecedented fluid circumstance worldwide. The panic and fluctuations in the stock markets were unparalleled. It is inarguable that real-time availability of news and social media platforms like Twitter played a vital role in driving the investors’ sentiment during such global shock.

Purpose:The purpose of this thesis is to study how the investor sentiment in relation to COVID-19 pandemic influenced stock markets globally and how stock markets globally are integrated and contagious. We analyze COVID-19 sentiment through the Twitter posts and investigate its …

Risk Assessment Of Dropped Cylindrical Objects In Offshore Operations, Adelina Steven

University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Dropped object are defined as any object that fall under its own weight from a previously static position or fell due to an applied force from equipment or a moving object. It is among the top ten causes of injuries and fatality in oil and gas industry. To solve this problem, several in-house tools and guidelines is developed over time to assess the risk of dropped objects on the sub-sea structures. This thesis focuses on compiling and comparing those methods in hope to improve the recommended practices available in the market. A simple modification is done on the in-house tools …

Developing A Cyberterrorism Policy: Incorporating Individual Values, Osama Bassam J. Rabie

Theses and Dissertations

Preventing cyberterrorism is becoming a necessity for individuals, organizations, and governments. However, current policies focus on technical and managerial aspects without asking for experts and non-experts values and preferences for preventing cyberterrorism. This study employs value focused thinking and public value forum to bare strategic measures and alternatives for complex policy decisions for preventing cyberterrorism. The strategic measures and alternatives are per socio-technical process.

A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …

Developing A Risk Analysis Model To Improve Study Abroad Awareness, Tyler Spain

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

As international education opportunities increase in popularity among U.S. college students (McMurtrie, 2007), it is becoming more and more necessary for study abroad organizations to be aware of the risks students face as they travel abroad. While some international cities are riskier than others, it can be difficult to distinguish between cities which truly carry a high degree of risk for visiting students, and which cities are only perceived to be risky based on various personal misconceptions. The University of Arkansas Office of Study Abroad & International Exchange currently lacks a way to quantifiably analyze the risk of study abroad …

Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

A Machine Learning Approach To Post-Market Surveillance Of Medical Devices, Jonathan Bates, Shu-Xia Li, Craig Parzynski, Ronald Coifman, Harlan Krumholz, Joseph Ross

Yale Day of Data

Post-market surveillance is a collection of processes and activities used by product manufacturers and regulators, such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to monitor the safety and effectiveness of medical devices once they are available for use “on the market”. These activities are designed to generate information to identify poorly performing devices and other safety problems, accurately characterize real-world device performance and clinical outcomes, and facilitate the development of new devices, or new uses for existing devices. Typically, a device is monitored by comparing adverse events in the exposed population to a matched unexposed population. This research considers …

An Assessment Of The Performances Of Several Univariate Tests Of Normality, James Olusegun Adefisoye

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The importance of checking the normality assumption in most statistical procedures especially parametric tests cannot be over emphasized as the validity of the inferences drawn from such procedures usually depend on the validity of this assumption. Numerous methods have been proposed by different authors over the years, some popular and frequently used, others, not so much. This study addresses the performance of eighteen of the available tests for different sample sizes, significance levels, and for a number of symmetric and asymmetric distributions by conducting a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results showed that considerable power is not achieved for symmetric distributions when …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

An Exercise With The He’S Variation Iteration Method To A Fractional Bernoulli Equation Arising In A Transient Conduction With A Non-Linear Boundary Heat Flux, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Surface temperature evolution of a body subjected to a nonlinear heat flux involving counteracting convection heating and radiation cooling has been solved by the variations iteration method (VIM) of He. The surface temperature equations comes as a combination of the time-fractional (half-time) subdiffusion model of the heat conduction and the boundary condition relating the temperature field gradient at the surface through the Riemann-Liouville fractional integral. The result of this equation is a Bernoulli-type ordinary fractional equation with a nonlinear term of 4th order. Two approaches in the identification of the general Lagrange multiplier and a consequent application of VIM have …

Integral-Balance Solution To The Stokes’ First Problem Of A Viscoelastic Generalized Second Grade Fluid, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Integral balance solution employing entire domain approximation and the penetration dept concept to the Stokes’ first problem of a viscoelastic generalized second grade fluid has been developed. The solution has been performed by a parabolic profile with an unspecified exponent allowing optimization through minimization of the norm over the domain of the penetration depth. The closed form solution explicitly defines two dimensionless similarity variables and , responsible for the viscous and the elastic responses of the fluid to the step jump at the boundary. The solution was developed with three forms of the governing equation through its two dimensional forms …

Thermal Impedance At The Interface Of Contacting Bodies: 1-D Example Solved By Semi-Derivatives, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Simple 1-D semi-infinite heat conduction problems enable to demonstrate the potential of the fractional calculus in determination of transient thermal impedances of two bodies with different initial temperatures contacting at the interface ( ) at . The approach is purely analytic and uses only semi-derivatives (half-time) and semi-integrals in the Riemann-Liouville sense. The example solved clearly reveals that the fractional calculus is more effective in calculation the thermal resistances than the entire domain solutions

Starting Radial Subdiffusion From A Central Point Through A Diverging Medium (A Sphere): Heat-Balance Integral Method, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

The work presents an integral solution of the time-fractional subdiffusion equation as alternative approach to those employing hypergeometric functions. The integral solution suggests a preliminary defined profile with unknown coefficients and the concept of penetration (boundary layer) well known from the heat diffusion and hydrodynamics. The profile satisfies the boundary conditions imposed at the boundary of the boundary layer that allows its coefficients to be expressed through the boundary layer depth as unique parameter describing the profile. The technique is demonstrated by a solution of a time fractional radial equation concerning anomalous diffusion from a central point source in a …

Transient Flow Of A Generalized Second Grade Fluid Due To A Constant Surface Shear Stress: An Approximate Integral-Balance Solution, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

Integral balance solution to start-up problem of a second grade viscoelastic fluid caused by a constant surface stress at the surface has been developed by an entire-domain parabolic profile with an unspecified exponent. The closed form solution explicitly defines two dimensionless similarity variables ξ = y ν t and 2 D0 p t= χ = ν β , responsible for the viscous and the elastic responses of the fluid to the step jump at the boundary. Numerical simulations demonstrating the effect of the various operating parameter and fluid properties on the developed flow filed, as well comparison with the existing …

A Short-Distance Integral-Balance Solution To A Strong Subdiffusion Equation: A Weak Power-Law Profile, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

The work presents an integral solution of the time-fractional subdiffusion through a preliminary defined profile with unknown coefficients and the concept of penetration layer well known from the heat diffusion The profile satisfies the boundary conditions imposed at the boundary of the boundary layer in a weak form that allows its coefficients to be expressed through the boundary layer depth as unique parameter describing the profile. The technique is demonstrated by a solution of a time fractional subdiffusion equation in rectilinear 1-D conditions.

Heat-Balance Integral To Fractional (Half-Time) Heat Diffusion Sub-Model, Jordan Hristov

Jordan Hristov

The fractional (half-time) sub-model of the heat diffusion equation, known as Dirac-like evolution diffusion equation has been solved by the heat-balance integral method and a parabolic pro file with unspecified exponent. The fractional heat-balance integral method has been tested with two classic examples: fixed temperature and fixed flux at the boundary. The heat-balance technique allows easily the convolution integral of the fractional half-time derivative to be solved as a convolution of the time-independent approximating function. The fractional sub-model provides an artificial boundary condition at the boundary that closes the set of the equations required to express all parameters of the …

Risk-Based Comparison Of Classification Systems, Seth B. Wagenman

Theses and Dissertations

Performance measures for families of classification system families that rely upon the analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), such as area under the ROC curve (AUC), often fail to fully address the issue of risk, especially for classification systems involving more than two classes. For the general case, we denote matrices of class prevalences, costs, and class-conditional probabilities, and assume costs are subjectively fixed, acceptable estimates for expected values of class-conditional probabilities exist, and mutual independence between a variable in one such matrix and those of any other matrix. The ROC Risk Functional (RRF), valid for any finite number of …

An Investigation Of Instantaneous Plume Rise From Rocket Exhaust, Paul F. Sand

Theses and Dissertations

Rocket launches at Vandenburg Air Force Base and Cape Canaveral Air Station produce exhaust clouds containing several toxic by-products, including HC1 and A12O3. These clouds rise to atmospheric stabilization heights, and then start dispersing and diffusing through the air. Upon reaching the ground, concentration levels of the toxins may present a human health risk. To predict these risks and concentration levels, range officials use a computer program titled the Rocket Effluent Exhaust Diffusion Model (REEDM). The version currently in use has been shown to underpredict the stabilization height of the exhaust cloud. This thesis examines the theory and algorithms used …