Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

A Multi-Attribute-Utility-Theory Model That Minimizes Interview-Data Requirements: A Consolidation Of Space Launch Decisions, Raymond W. Staats

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to define a mathematical representation of a decision maker's utility associated with a satellite system. While developing the survey instrument, we focused on making it simpler to administer, primarily by eliminating the use of lottery questions. These simplifications enabled us to shorten our interview with the decision maker to under two hours for a rather complex model.

An Improved Heuristic For Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Crew Scheduling, Michael D. Shirley Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

Creating monthly schedules for missile crews is a complex and time-consuming problem. Thousands of events must be scheduled for several hundred missile officers. The rules and regulations governing the problem are numerous, and there are currently no established measures for missile crew schedules. The scheduling software currently available only schedules a fraction of the events. The objectives of this research were to create a rule-based heuristic which could quickly produce feasible or near-feasible schedules, to make the scheduling process paperless, and to develop possible measures of effectiveness for missile crew schedules. The research was successful in each of these areas. …

An Approach For Representation Of Organizational Mental Models Using System Dynamics, Jörg-Peter Theissen

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The concept of mental models has received much attention within recent years, especially within the context of organizational learning. This research is based on and departs from the Organizational Learning Process as developed by Keating, Robinson, and Clemson (1994). That process, which is based on a verbal representation of mental models, does not call forth the kind of change that is desired in Organizational Learning. This research investigates if mental models can be represented in the form of system dynamics models and inquires if this representation is beneficial to the process of Organizational Learning.

The research was designed as a …

Analysis Of The Jplan Exercise As An Experimental Learning Tool, Mark J. Lynch, Michael E. Washington

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to develop an effective educational tool for the Combat Logistics course offered at the Air Force Institute of Technology. The current tool being used, the JPLAN Exercise, was identified as outdated in several areas. The research focused upon four investigative questions what makes an effective educational tool, should the existing exercise be revised or replaced, which logistics principles are essential for incorporation into the educational tool, and is the updated tool significantly different from the original. To answer these questions, we conducted an extensive literature review that focused on two areas. The first area …

Dynamic Load Balancing For A Parallel Discrete-Event Battlefield Simulation, Seth R. Guanu

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates issues involved in developing a dynamic load balancing model for a parallel discrete event battlefield simulation. The research covers issues in task management, discrete-event simulation, parallel simulation, and load balancing. There are four primary issues discussed concerning the design of a dynamic load balancing model. The first issue is processor load evaluation which deals with the calculation of the amount of work on a processor. The second issue is load balancing profitability determination which deals with the decision to load balance or not based on some cost-gain relationship. The third issue is task migration which deals with …

Embedded Chaotic Time Series: Applications In Prediction And Spatio-Temporal Classification, James R. Stright

Theses and Dissertations

The Deterministic Versus Stochastic algorithm developed by Martin Casdagli is modified to produce two new, methodologies, each of which selectively uses embedding space nearest neighbors. Neighbors which are considered prediction relevant are retained for local linear prediction, while those which are considered likely to represent noise are ignored. For many time series, it is shown possible to improve on local linear prediction with both of the new algorithms. Furthermore, the theory of embedology is applied to determine a length of test sequence sufficient for accurate classification of moving objects. Sequentially recorded feature vectors of a moving object form a training …

Application Of Sequential Quadratic Programming To Large-Scale Structural Design Problems, Mark A. Abramson

Theses and Dissertations

Large-scale structural optimization problems are often difficult to solve with reasonable efficiency and accuracy. Such problems are often characterized by constraint functions which are not explicitly defined. Constraint and gradient functions are usually expensive to evaluate. An optimization approach which uses the NLPQL sequential quadratic programming algorithm of Schittkowski, integrated with the Automated Structural Optimization System ASTROS is tested. The traditional solution approach involves the formulation and solution of an explicitly defined approximate problem during each iteration. This approach is replaced by a simpler approach in which the approximate problem is eliminated. In the simpler approach, each finite element analysis …

The Effective Use Of Animation In Simulation Model Validation, Christopher L. Swider

Theses and Dissertations

This study examined two animation displays moving icons, bar graphs at two presentation speeds to determine how each of these factors affected the animations ability to communicate violations of model assumptions. Subjects viewed animation displays individually and in combination at each presentation speed. Eight problem scenarios were presented to evaluate each animations ability to communicate violations of different assumptions. Each animations communication ability was measured subjectively and objectively. Subjective measures in the form of pairwise comparisons were used to calculate normalized preference ratings for each animation. objective measures included problem identification accuracy and problem time. Subjective results indicated that moving …

An Analysis Of Air Force Acquisition Engineering Officer's Perceptions Of The Adequacy Of Their Preparation For Management, Steven E. Woodruff

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to determine how much time Air Force acquisition engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers spend in performing management functions, how those engineers perceive their management training, and which types of training contribute the most to managerial competency. The results from surveys of 215 acquisition engineers assigned to ASCEN, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH and their supervisors revealed that engineers do indeed spend substantial amounts of time performing management functions. Slightly more than half the engineers reported spending at least 50 of an average workday performing management functions. Over 53 of engineers responding to …

An Air Mission Planning Algorithm For A Theater Level Combat Model, Brian J. Griggs

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of an air mission planning algorithm for the Joint Staffs Future Theater Level Model FTLM. The overall problem scope was to develop an algorithm to handle major factors bearing on the combat mission planning problem while providing hook-ups for the FTLM architecture. Other aspects of the problem included finding the appropriate level of detail, developing a fast solving technique, and attempting to use existing data. The problem was handled by using some ideas from existing aircraft allocation algorithms and by adding some new techniques. The proposed air mission planning algorithm supplies the optimum degree of …

Assessing The Vulnerability Of Multi-Commodity Networks With Failing Components, Alan R. Robinson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach for assessing flow disturbance, or compromise, based on limited sampling of arc flow information in multi-commodity, or multiple origin-destination O-D, networks with failing arcs. There were three objectives established for this research. The first objective was to bound the expected flow, given the arcs fail with certain probabilities, which was accomplished by reviewing current approaches for single-commodity networks and extending the results to the multi-commodity case. The second objective was to determine the best placement of flow monitors to obtain the most accurate estimates of O-D pair volumes. This was accomplished using a multi-criteria …

A Fortran Based Learning System Using Multilayer Back-Propagation Neural Network Techniques, Gregory L. Reinhart

Theses and Dissertations

An interactive computer system which allows the researcher to build an optimal neural network structure quickly, is developed and validated. This system assumes a single hidden layer perceptron structure and uses the back- propagation training technique. The software enables the researcher to quickly define a neural network structure, train the neural network, interrupt training at any point to analyze the status of the current network, re-start training at the interrupted point if desired, and analyze the final network using two- dimensional graphs, three-dimensional graphs, confusion matrices and saliency metrics. A technique for training, testing, and validating various network structures and …

Proactive Monitoring Of Performance In Stochastic Communication Networks, John C. C. Van Hove

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes several models for placing bounds on the expected values of some dynamic performance measures for computer communication networks with failing components. These models provide an understanding of expected network performance that is useful in the process of proactive performance monitoring and also in defining level of service agreements with network users. There were three objectives for this research. The first objective was to extend some existing models of steady-state stochastic network performance to a dynamic network flow representation in order to capture the dynamic nature of proactive monitoring. The second objective was to convert the extended absolute …

A Simulation Approach To Granite Sentry System Analysis, Marilyn J. Bauer

Theses and Dissertations

This study demonstrated the use of simulation modelling to analyze Granite Sentry system performance. The availability simulation model constructed provides a number of system performance measures as a function of component MTBFs and MTTRs. Analysis of failure data prior to model construction supported the generally accepted use of exponentially distributed failure rates and lognormally distributed repair times.

A Mean Value Analysis Heuristic For Analysis Of Aircraft Sortie Generation, Richard C. Jenkins

Theses and Dissertations

The primary objective of this study was to develop an analytical methodology based on the Mean Value Analysis algorithm that approximates the performance characteristics of a queueing network model QNM containing a fork- join queue with probabilistic branching. These performance characteristics are response time, throughput and queue length at each station. The QNM solved contains the essential features of the aircraft sortie generation process. The sensitivity of the methods accuracy to increases in server utilization was determined. The comparisons of the results of the MVA heuristic to the outputs of the Logistics Composite Model LCOM simulation indicate that the heuristics …

Analysis Of Thunder Combat Simulation Model, Timothy S. Webb

Theses and Dissertations

TAC THUNDER, or THUNDER, is a two-sided large scale computer simulation model that simulates air and ground combat, logistics, and limited airlift at the theater level. It is in use by several allied nations, major defense contractors, and various Department of Defense DoD analysis agencies. The objectives of this thesis effort were to examine the overall model variability, examine the model output for possible interrelationships, and examine the model sensitivity to input parameters. A univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to examine the first two objectives. The univariate analysis consisted of an analysis of the confidence intervals and replication requirements …

An Integer Solution Heuristic For The Arsenal Exchange Model (Aem), Daniel J. Green

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency sought a method for converting the continuous solution produced by the Arsenal Exchange Model into a feasible integer solution. The current integerization method leaves weapons unused and targets uncovered and could be improved. In the method developed, the noninteger valued variables in the continuous solution are rounded down to the nearest integer to produce a truncated solution. An integer goal program is then used to reallocate the weapons and targets made available in the rounding process. The truncated solution is then combined with the solution of the integer goal program to produce a …

An Analysis Of Stopping Criteria In Artificial Neural Networks, Bruce Kostal

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this study was to decide when to terminate training of an artificial neural network ANN. In pursuit of this goal, several characteristics of the ANN were monitored throughout ANN training classification error rate of the training set, testing set, or a weighted average of the two moving average classification error rate measurements of the difference between ANN output and desired output error sum of squares, total absolute error. or largest absolute error or ANN weight changes absolute weight change, squared weight change, or relative weight change. Throughout this research, the learning rate was held constant at 0.35. …

An Rsm Study Of The Effects Of Simulation Work And Metamodel Specification On The Statistical Quality Of Metamodel Estimates, Michael K. Taylor

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigated the combined influence of simulation work and metamodel specification on the statistical quality of the estimates obtained from the resulting metamodels of the simulation data. A 9 x 2 x 2 experiment consisting of 9 cases of simulation work, 2 levels of metamodel specification, and 2 levels of design fractionation were designed for 8 different configurations of MMk queues. The only observed statistic for this experiment was the average queue length. Simulation estimates for each configurations average queue length were calculated directly from the simulation data. In addition, the metamodels were fit to the simulation data and …

An Investigation Of Simulated Annealing Applied To Structural Optimization Problems, Richard C. Mceachin

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates the feasibility of using Simulated Annealing SA in structural optimization problems. The investigation involves solving benchmark structural optimization problems with an SA algorithm, and comparing its solutions to those found by four other optimizers. Overall, the analysis shows that SA has limited applicability in structural optimization. Two primary factors were found to adversely impact the performance of the SA algorithm in these problems. These factors are high dimensionality, and high levels of constraint. The difficulty involved in solving these problems with a random search increases exponentially with the number of dimensions. The number, and non-linearity, of the …

The Science Of Simulation Modeling, Paul Savory, Gerald Mackulak

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Many people refer to simulation model building as an “intuitive art”. This implies that modeling can only be done by a select group of highly trained creative people and thus isolates many from considering simulation as a usable tool. Model building is a science that is learned through education, training and experience. In this paper, we discuss the role of science in performing a simulation study. We illustrate the teaching of the science of simulation by discussing the simulation curriculum at Arizona State University.

Extending Simulation’S Advantages To Novice Model Builders: Intellisim Tutorial, Paul Savory, Gerald Mackulak, Jeff Cochran

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

The potential benefits that discrete-event simulation offers are impeded by the high level of expertise necessary to successfully conduct a sound simulation study. As a solution, this paper introduces IntelliSIM, an intelligent simulation environment. Using this environment makes simulation more accessible to users by reducing the need for extensive experience or training. One of IntelliSIM’s key features for accomplishing this is a tutorial and training module that quickly acquaints a novice simulation user with IntelliSIM’s features and the process of performing a simulation study. This paper discusses this tutorial by explaining how IntelliSIM develops a simulation model, thus illustrating how …

Ascertaining Important Features For Industrial Simulation Environments, Gerald Mackulak, Jeffery Cichran, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Recent years have witnessed the development and commercial release of multiple simulation tools, environments, and intelligent simulators. Each release seems to contain additional advanced features designed to simplify simulation use and increase the productivity of model builders. But to date, no one has addressed feature definition from the viewpoint of a simulation practitioner. This paper discusses our efforts to identify and prioritize simulation features deemed most desirable from the practitioner viewpoint. A series of three questionnaires were developed and administered to a group of qualified simulation practitioners. With results that are of interest to simulation users, researchers, and simulation software …

Materials Recovery Facilities In The United States Virgin Islands: A Regional Facilities Location Model Study, Lloyd O. Prince Jr.

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Continental municipalities have derived many benefits from the economies of scale associated with a regional approach to facilities location and management planning. Centralized solid waste processing facilities is an example. Island communities, however, surrounded by miles of ocean, are constrained to a fragmented approach to the facilities location solution. This research was conducted to determine if the regional paradigm suggested in the literature is applicable to a set of island communities connected by an ocean transportation infrastructure. A linear programming (LP) model, constraints and data requirements were developed and applied to a network of islands. A series of hypothetical material …

Teamwork In The Workplace: A Discovery Of The Work Processes One Team Used To Meet Its Goals, Thomas Andrew Hassler

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

A century-old disagreement in academia surrounds the question of whether individuals acting alone accomplish all work or whether workers can truly act in concert to meet management's production requirements. Total Quality Management (TQM) is a powerful force today in the industrial world, and the formation of teams to solve short-term problems is one of its fundamental techniques. This dissertation focuses on a particular TQM team with the purpose of understanding the processes it used to meet its goals. This ten-member team functioned for about one year and was assigned goals leading to improved accelerator reliability. The investigator was a member …