Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Computational Modeling For Decision-Making Under Climate Change Uncertainty: Reservoir Simulation Game, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

Almost every decision you make is under uncertainty. Will I need a rain jacket in the afternoon? Will they say yes if I ask them out? Is 1 hour enough time to finish this assignment? Oftentimes, we can use computational modeling to simulate different scenarios of what might happen in the future to inform what decisions are best on average, or what decisions minimize the worst case outcome. For example, you could decide what player to draft for your Fantasy Football team by simulating player performance. In this activity, we will simulate how much water to release from a dam …

Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced. However, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, namely Boone’s learning curve, was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirms that Boone’s learning curve systematically reduced error in modeling observed learning curves using production data from 169 Department of Defense end-items. However, high amounts of variability in …

Subsurface Analytics: Contribution Of Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning To Reservoir Engineering, Reservoir Modeling, And Reservoir Management, Shahab D. Mohaghegh

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Subsurface Analytics is a new technology that changes the way reservoir simulation and modeling is performed. Instead of starting with the construction of mathematical equations to model the physics of the fluid flow through porous media and then modification of the geological models in order to achieve history match, Subsurface Analytics that is a completely AI-based reservoir simulation and modeling technology takes a completely different approach. In AI-based reservoir modeling, field measurements form the foundation of the reservoir model. Using data-driven, pattern recognition technologies; the physics of the fluid flow through porous media is modeled through discovering the best, most …

Conditional Survival Analysis For Concrete Bridge Decks, Azam Nabizadeh, Habib Tabatabai, Mohammad A. Tabatabai

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Articles

Bridge decks are a significant factor in the deterioration of bridges, and substantially affect long-term bridge maintenance decisions. In this study, conditional survival (reliability) analysis techniques are applied to bridge decks to evaluate the age at the end of service life using the National Bridge Inventory records. As bridge decks age, the probability of survival and the expected service life would change. The additional knowledge gained from the fact that a bridge deck has already survived a specific number of years alters (increases) the original probability of survival at subsequent years based on the conditional probability theory. The conditional expected …

Maquiladoras In Central America: An Analysis Of Workforce Schedule, Productivity And Fatigue., Jose L. Barahona

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Textile factories or Maquiladoras are very abundant and predominant in Central American economies. However, they all do not have the same standardized work schedule or routines. Most of the Maquiladoras only follow schedules and regulations established by the current labor laws without taking into consideration many variables within their organization that could affect their overall performance. As a result, the purpose of the study is to analyze the current working structure of a textile Maquiladora and determine the most suitable schedule that will abide with the current working structure but also increase production levels, employee morale and decrease employee fatigue. …

Recent Trends In The Frequency And Duration Of Global Floods, Nasser Najibi, Naresh Devineni

Publications and Research

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985–2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1–7, moderate: 8–20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. …

A Proposed Taxonomy For The Systems Statistical Engineering Body Of Knowledge, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

In the ASEM-IAC 2012, Cotter (2012) identified the gaps in knowledge that statistical engineering needs to address, explored additional gaps in knowledge not addressed in the prior works, and set forth a working definition of and body of knowledge for statistical engineering. In the ASEM-IAC 2015, Cotter (2015) proposed a systemic causal Bayesian hierarchical model that addressed the knowledge gap needed to integrate deterministic mathematical engineering causal models within a stochastic framework. Missing, however, is the framework for specifying the hierarchical qualitative systems structures necessary and sufficient for specifying systemic causal Bayesian hierarchical models. In the ASEM-IAC 2016, Cotter (2016) …

Human-Intelligence/Machine-Intelligence Decision Governance: An Analysis From Ontological Point Of View, Faisal Mahmud, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

The increasing CPU power and memory capacity of computers, and now computing appliances, in the 21st century has allowed accelerated integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into organizational processes and everyday life. Artificial intelligence can now be found in a wide range of organizational processes including medical diagnosis, automated stock trading, integrated robotic production systems, telecommunications routing systems, and automobile fuzzy logic controllers. Self-driving automobiles are just the latest extension of AI. This thrust of AI into organizations and everyday life rests on the AI community’s unstated assumption that “…every aspect of human learning and intelligence could be so precisely described …

A Recommendation System For Meta-Modeling: A Meta-Learning Based Approach, Can Cui, Mengqi Hu, Jeffery D. Weir, Teresa Wu

Faculty Publications

Various meta-modeling techniques have been developed to replace computationally expensive simulation models. The performance of these meta-modeling techniques on different models is varied which makes existing model selection/recommendation approaches (e.g., trial-and-error, ensemble) problematic. To address these research gaps, we propose a general meta-modeling recommendation system using meta-learning which can automate the meta-modeling recommendation process by intelligently adapting the learning bias to problem characterizations. The proposed intelligent recommendation system includes four modules: (1) problem module, (2) meta-feature module which includes a comprehensive set of meta-features to characterize the geometrical properties of problems, (3) meta-learner module which compares the performance of instance-based …

System-Wide Prediction Of General, All-Cause, Preventable Hospital Readmissions, Ken Musselman, Brandon Pope, Steve Witz, Zhiyi Tian, Lingsong Zhang, Linda Leon, Ann Davis

RCHE Publications

Existing studies of hospital readmissions typically focus on specific diagnoses, age groups, discharge dispositions, payer classes, or hospitals, and often use small samples. It is not clear how predictive models generated from such studies generalize across diseases, hospitals, or time periods. In this study, a logistic regression model of readmission risk within 30 days based on hospital administrative data was constructed and validated across hospitals and time periods. The hospitals included both general and specialty hospitals such as long-term care, women’s, and children’s hospitals. The administrative data included information on patient’s demographics, diagnoses, procedures, and discharge disposition. Derivation and validation …

An Assessment Of The Performances Of Several Univariate Tests Of Normality, James Olusegun Adefisoye

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The importance of checking the normality assumption in most statistical procedures especially parametric tests cannot be over emphasized as the validity of the inferences drawn from such procedures usually depend on the validity of this assumption. Numerous methods have been proposed by different authors over the years, some popular and frequently used, others, not so much. This study addresses the performance of eighteen of the available tests for different sample sizes, significance levels, and for a number of symmetric and asymmetric distributions by conducting a Monte-Carlo simulation. The results showed that considerable power is not achieved for symmetric distributions when …

Key Factors Driving Personnel Downsizing In Multinational Military Organizations, Ilksen Gorkem, Resit Unal, Pilar Pazos

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

Although downsizing has long been a topic of research in traditional organizations, there are very few studies of this phenomenon in military contexts. As a result, we have little understanding of the key factors that drive personnel downsizing in military setting. This study contributes to our understanding of key factors that drive personnel downsizing in military organizations and whether those factors may differ across NATO nations’ cultural clusters. The theoretical framework for this study was built from studies in non-military contexts and adapted to fit the military environment.

This research relies on historical data from one of the largest multinational …

Spatial And Temporal Correlations Of Freeway Link Speeds: An Empirical Study, Piotr J. Rachtan

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

Congestion on roadways and high level of uncertainty of traffic conditions are major considerations for trip planning. The purpose of this research is to investigate the characteristics and patterns of spatial and temporal correlations and also to detect other variables that affect correlation in a freeway setting. 5-minute speed aggregates from the Performance Measurement System (PeMS) database are obtained for two directions of an urban freeway – I-10 between Santa Monica and Los Angeles, California. Observations are for all non-holiday weekdays between January 1st and June 30th, 2010. Other variables include traffic flow, ramp locations, number of lanes and the …

A Study On Facility Planning Using Discrete Event Simulation: Case Study Of A Grain Delivery Terminal., Sarah M. Asio

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The application of traditional approaches to the design of efficient facilities can be tedious and time consuming when uncertainty and a number of constraints exist. Queuing models and mathematical programming techniques are not able to capture the complex interaction between resources, the environment and space constraints for dynamic stochastic processes. In the following study discrete event simulation is applied to the facility planning process for a grain delivery terminal. The discrete event simulation approach has been applied to studies such as capacity planning and facility layout for a gasoline station and evaluating the resource requirements for a manufacturing facility. To …

How Do You Interpret A Confidence Interval?, Paul Savory

Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Instructional Materials

A confidence interval (CI) is an interval estimate of a population parameter. Instead of estimating the parameter by a single value, a point estimate, an interval likely to cover the parameter is developed. Many student incorrectly interpret the meaning of a confidence interval. This paper offers a quick overview of how to correctly interpret a confidence interval.

Why Divide By (N-1) For Sample Standard Deviation?, Paul Savory

Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Instructional Materials

In statistics, the sample standard deviation is a widely used measure of the variability or dispersion of a data set. The standard deviation of a data set is the square root of its variance. In calculating the sample standard deviation, the divisor is the number of samples in the data set minus one (n-1) rather than n. This often confuses students. This paper offers a quick overview of why the divisor is (n-1) for calculating the sample standard deviation.

Differences In The Performance Of Knowledge Transfer Across Projects: A Study Of Gender And Role Of Key Project Stakeholders, Rafael E. Landaeta, Catherine Vergopia, Rey N. Diaz

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

This investigation contributes empirical results of differences identified in key project stakeholders with respect to their use of knowledge transferred across projects. Gender and role were the two individual characteristics investigated. Project managers and members of project teams were the key stakeholders analyzed. Data was collected from 71 closed projects using a survey composed of closed-ended questions. The data collected was cross tabulated and statistically analyzed using Friedman's test and Spearman's correlation. The results provide evidence of the association of the performance of knowledge transfer across projects with (a) the individual factors of gender and role of key project stakeholders …

Effective Use Of Process Capability Indices For Supplier Management, Elizabeth A. Cudney, David Drain

Engineering Management and Systems Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

Process capability indices were originally invented to enable an organization to make economically sound decisions for process management. Process capability is a comparison of the voice of the process with the voice of the customer. Current practice is to use Cp and Cpk regardless of the validity of the underlying assumptions necessary for their use. Even if all necessary assumptions are satisfied, important problems can be missed if these indices are the sole process evaluation examined. Customer-supplier axioms are introduced to motivate more useful process evaluations and foster long-term harmonious relationships. This paper explores the alternative capability indices Cpm, Cpmk, …

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Transmission Project: Final Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix L, New England Division, United States Army Corps Of Engineers, United States Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

This draft EIS Supplement describes the environmental impacts of updated transmission plans of the Department of Energy (DOE) for the proposed Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project. Energy produced by the project is to be integrated into the New England electric system if the project is constructed.

Federal Water Pollution Control Act Section "404" Evaluation For Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes, New England Division, United States Army Engineer Division, United States Army Corps Of Engineers

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

The purpose of this report is to relate various aspects of the proposed Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Hydroelectric Project to appropriate considerations defined by Section 404 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972.

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Transmission Studies Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix H: Socio-Economic Impact Study, Edward C. Jordan Co., Inc., United States Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

The principal objective of this study is to identify the major types and intensity of social and economic impacts anticipated with the proposed pre-construction, construction, operation and maintenance of the Dickey-Lincoln transmission line. In order to address the types of anticipated impacts it was necessary to first develop a socio-economic profile of the affected area.

Revised Draft Impact Statement Issued For Dickey-Lincoln, New England Division, United States Army Engineer Division, United States Army Corps Of Engineers

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

Revised draft combines data previously published in two separate impact statements prepared by the corps relating to the dams, reservoirs and power plants and by the U. S. Department of Energy for transmission facilities to link the St. John River development to the New England power grid. The latter agency is responsible for the marketing and distribution of power generated at federally-financed installations.

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Transmission Studies Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix F: Geotechnical Impact Study, Jordan Gorrill Associates, Edward C. Jordan Co., Inc., United States Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

The U.S. Departments of the Interior and Energy have conducted system planning, location, and environmental studies for the trans-mission facilities required for the Dickey-Lincoln School Hydroelectric project. These studies of many alternate routes have resulted in iden-tification of a proposed transmission line route and an environmental impact statement, as required by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. This report, one of several prepared under contract to the DOE by various consultants, is published as an appendix to that statement. Appendix F, Geotechnical Impact Study (two volumes, the second being a map volume), documents a study performed by E. C. …

Draft Environmental Impact Statement : Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Transmission Project, United States Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

This draft environmental impact statement (EIS) will describe the environmental impacts of transmission plans of the Department of Energy (DOE) for the proposed Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project. Electric power produced by the project is to be integrated into the New England electric system if the project is constructed.

Ecological Resources Impact Study. Map Volume, United States. Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

Environmental Assessment of Alternative Routes, Ecological Resources Impact Study, Maps and Legend land cover types

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Transmission Studies Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix J: Historical-Archeological Impact Study, Albert A. Dekin Jr., Bruce R. Donaldson, J. Lloyd Pepper, Paul A. Robinson, Edward A. Hession, Judith A. Rasson, Public Archaeology Facility Department Of Anthropology, United States Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

The report assessing cultural resources for the Dickey/Lincoln School Transmission Project consists of five narrative chapters, a topical bibliography, and five appendices. The scope of work, together with the USDI guidelines for cultural resource survey (included in Appendix E), comprise an attitude and approach toward prehistory which is in accord with the current state of the art, not simply in terms of cultural resource management but also in terms of contemporary standards generally recognized by practitioners of anthropological archaeology.

Visual-Recreation Resources Impact Study. Map Volume, United States. Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

Environmental Assessment of Alternative Routes, Visual/Recreational Resources Impact Studies, Maps of Recreational Resources

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Transmission Studies Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix B: Alternative Power Transmission Corridors, United States Department Of Energy, United States Department Of The Interior

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

This report identifies alternative corridors of land within which transmission lines could be routed and details various impacts on the environment which would be associated with introduction of transmission facilities. Many alternative corridor locations were identified (see Figure 1-1). Identification of these alternative transmission corridors was a complex process, since the number of potential corridors capable of connecting the various substations was myriad; the 'least desirable' potential corridors, i.e., those where transmission facilities might have entailed severest impacts on the environment, had to be eliminated from consideration before alternative corridors could be delineated. Identified alternative corridor locations were subsequently evaluated …

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Transmission Studies Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix I: Visual-Recreation Resources Impact Study, United States Department Of Energy

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

The U.S. Departments of the Interior and Energy have conducted system planning, location, and environmental studies for the transmission facilities required for the Dickey-Lincoln School Hydroelectric Project. These studies of many alternate routes have resulted in identification of a proposed transmission line route, and an environmental impact statement as required by the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. This report, one of several covering various topical areas, is published as an appendix to that statement.

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project Transmission Studies Environmental Impact Statement: Appendix E: Ecological Resources Impact Study, United States Department Of Energy, Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

Dickey-Lincoln School Lakes Project

The responsibility for marketing federally generated power (under provisions of the Flood Control Act of 1944) was transferred from the Department of the Interior to the newly formed Department of Energy. The power transmission portions of the Dickey- Lincoln School Lakes Project were included in that transfer. The U.S. Department of the Interior and Energy have conducted system planning, location, and environmental studies for the transmission facilities required for the Dickey-Lincoln School Hydroelectric Project. These studies of many alternate routes have resulted in identification of a proposed transmission line route and an environmental impact statement, as required by the National …