Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Comparing North American Professional Sports League Season Formats Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Lathan Gregg

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Each NFL, NBA, and MLB season consists of a regular season, in which teams play a set number of scheduled games and a playoff, in which qualifying teams compete for a championship. At the conclusion of each season, teams are ranked based on their performance throughout the season. This study aims to investigate the ability of each league's season format to accurately rank teams using Monte Carlo simulation. Matches between two teams are simulated by using the team’s assigned strength ranks to calculate a winning probability for each team. The winning probabilities are simulated with different skill values, dictating how …

Parameter Estimation For Patient Enrollment In Clinical Trials, Junyan Liu

Undergraduate Honors Theses

In this paper, we study the Poisson-gamma model for recruitment time in clinical trials. We proved several properties of this model that match our intuitions from a reliability perspective, did simulations on this model, and used different optimization methods to estimate the parameters. Although the behaviors of the optimization methods were unfavorable and unstable, we identified certain conditions and provided potential explanations for this phenomenon and further insights into the Poisson-gamma model.

Reducing Uncertainty In Sea-Level Rise Prediction: A Spatial-Variability-Aware Approach, Subhankar Ghosh, Shuai An, Arun Sharma, Jayant Gupta, Shashi Shekhar, Aneesh Subramanian

I-GUIDE Forum

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal communities and beyond due to climate change's impacts on polar ice sheets and the ocean. This problem is challenging due to spatial variability and unknowns such as possible tipping points (e.g., collapse of Greenland or West Antarctic ice-shelf), climate feedback loops (e.g., clouds, permafrost thawing), future policy decisions, and human actions. Most existing climate modeling approaches use the same set of weights globally, during either regression or …

A Machine Learning Approach For Predicting Clinical Trial Patient Enrollment In Drug Development Portfolio Demand Planning, Ahmed Shoieb

Masters Theses

One of the biggest challenges the clinical research industry currently faces is the accurate forecasting of patient enrollment (namely if and when a clinical trial will achieve full enrollment), as the stochastic behavior of enrollment can significantly contribute to delays in the development of new drugs, increases in duration and costs of clinical trials, and the over- or under- estimation of clinical supply. This study proposes a Machine Learning model using a Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) that is trained on a dataset of 100,000 patient enrollment data points including patient age, patient gender, patient disease, investigational product, study phase, blinded …

Reducing Restaurant Inventory Costs Through Sales Forecasting, Tyler Mason, Chris Schoen, Trevor Gilbert, Jonathan Enriquez

Senior Design Project For Engineers

Family Restaurant is a local restaurant in the greater Atlanta area that serves a variety of dishes that include an assortment of 19 different proteins. Currently, Family Restaurant places protein orders based on business intuition, and tends to over-stock and sometimes under-stock. To minimize inventory costs by reducing over-stocking and preventing under-stocking of proteins, we applied Facebook Prophet (FB Prophet), ARIMA, and XG Boost machine learning models to predict protein demand and then fed these results into a Fixed Time Period inventory model to make an overall order suggestion based on the specified time period. We trained our models on …

Investigating Collaborative Explainable Ai (Cxai)/Social Forum As An Explainable Ai (Xai) Method In Autonomous Driving (Ad), Tauseef Ibne Mamun

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Explainable AI (XAI) systems primarily focus on algorithms, integrating additional information into AI decisions and classifications to enhance user or developer comprehension of the system's behavior. These systems often incorporate untested concepts of explainability, lacking grounding in the cognitive and educational psychology literature (S. T. Mueller et al., 2021). Consequently, their effectiveness may be limited, as they may address problems that real users don't encounter or provide information that users do not seek.

In contrast, an alternative approach called Collaborative XAI (CXAI), as proposed by S. Mueller et al (2021), emphasizes generating explanations without relying solely on algorithms. CXAI centers …

Stochastic Optimization To Reduce Aircraft Taxi-In Time At Igia, New Delhi, Rajib Das, Saileswar Ghosh, Rajendra Desai, Pijus Kanti Bhuin, Stuti Agarwal

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Since there is an uncertainty in the arrival times of flights, pre-scheduled allocation of runways and stands and the subsequent first-come-first-served treatment results in a sub-optimal allocation of runways and stands, this is the prime reason for the unusual delays in taxi-in times at IGIA, New Delhi.

We simulated the arrival pattern of aircraft and utilized stochastic optimization to arrive at the best runway-stands allocation for a day. Optimization is done using a GRG Non-Linear algorithm in the Frontline Systems Analytic Solver platform. We applied this model to eight representative scenarios of two different days. Our results show that without …

Towards Structured Planning And Learning At The State Fisheries Agency Scale, Caleb A. Aldridge

Theses and Dissertations

Inland recreational fisheries has grown philosophically and scientifically to consider economic and sociopolitical aspects (non-biological) in addition to the biological. However, integrating biological and non-biological aspects of inland fisheries has been challenging. Thus, an opportunity exists to develop approaches and tools which operationalize planning and decision-making processes which include biological and non-biological aspects of a fishery. This dissertation expands the idea that a core set of goals and objectives is shared among and within inland fisheries agencies; that many routine operations of inland fisheries managers can be regimented or standardized; and the novel concept that current information and operations can …

Efficient Approaches To Steady State Detection In Multivariate Systems, Honglun Xu

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Steady state detection is critically important in many engineering fields such as fault detection and diagnosis, process monitoring and control. However, most of the existing methods are designed for univariate signals. In this dissertation, we proposed an efficient online steady state detection method for multivariate systems through a sequential Bayesian partitioning approach. The signal is modeled by a Bayesian piecewise constant mean and covariance model, and a recursive updating method is developed to calculate the posterior distributions analytically. The duration of the current segment is utilized to test the steady state. Insightful guidance is provided for hyperparameter selection. The effectiveness …

Ensemble Tree-Based Machine Learning For Imaging Data, Reza Iranzad

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In particular medical imaging data, such as positron emission tomography (PET), computed tomography (CT), and fluorescence intravital microscopy (IVM), have become prevalent for use in a wide variety of applications, from diagnostic purposes, tracking diseases' progress, and monitoring the effectiveness of treatments to decision-making processes. The detailed information generated by medical imaging has enabled physicians to provide more comprehensive care. Although numerous machine learning algorithms, especially those used for imaging data, have been developed, dealing with unique structures in imaging data remained a big challenge. In this dissertation, we are proposing novel statistical tree-based methods with more efficient and more …

Assessing The Influence Of Health Policy And Population Mobility On Covid-19 Spread In Arkansas, Tayden Barretto

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

The outbreak of COVID-19 has created a major crisis across the world since its start in 2019, and its influence on every realm of society is undeniable. Globally, more than 500 million cases have been recorded since March 2020, with almost 6 million deaths. In the wake of this crisis, many governments and health organizations have taken steps and precautions to mitigate its spread. These steps involve public mandates of information, reducing frequency of personal contact, and use of masks to minimize the risk of transmission. Current access to mobility data released from Google detailing population movements has provided a …

Predicting Tf33-Pw-100a Engine Failures Due To Oil Issues Using Survival Analyses, Anna M. Davis

Theses and Dissertations

In 2007, the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment pushed for the need to transition to a Condition Based Maintenance Plus (CBM ) initiative for weapon systems in the U.S. Department of Defense. The CBM initiative can help increase aircraft availability (AA) for the United States Air Force. There are many reasons where AA can be affected but one such issue is engine availability primarily due to oil issues. Within the CBM perspective, this study examines the risk of a jet engine failure due to an oil issue and attempts to predict an engines time until next …

Comparison Of Lightning Warning Radii Distributions, Michael M. Maestas

Theses and Dissertations

Previous research investigating lightning warning radii about the Cape Canaveral space launch facilities have focused on reducing these radii from either 5 nautical miles (NM) to 4 NM or from 6 NM to 5 NM depending on the structures being protected. Some of these findings have suggested the possibility of both a seasonal difference (warm versus cold) and lightning detection events (cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) or total lightning (TL)) impacting these radii and associated risk levels. Utilizing the 2017-2020 data provided by the 45th Weather Squadron at Patrick Space Force Base via the Mesoscale Eastern Range Lightning Information System (MERLIN), this …

Simulating Autonomous Cruise Missile Swarm Behaviors In An Anti-Access Area Denial (A2ad) Environment, Kyle W. Goggins

Theses and Dissertations

The increasingly sophisticated anti-access area denial (A2AD) threat imposed by the modern integrated air defense system (IADS), coupled with the decreasingly potent advantage provided by high-end stealth platforms, has prompted Air Force senior leaders to invest in radically changing the nature of air power for the year 2030 and beyond. A prominent element of this new vision is weapon swarming, which aims to address this challenge by overwhelming the IADS with huge numbers of low-cost, attritable aerial assets emboldened by autonomous capabilities. This research proposes a framework for classifying the different levels of autonomous capability along three independent dimensions—namely ability …

The Development Of Authentic Virtual Reality Scenarios To Measure Individuals’ Level Of Systems Thinking Skills And Learning Abilities, Vidanelage L. Dayarathna

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation develops virtual reality modules to capture individuals’ learning abilities and systems thinking skills in dynamic environments. In the first chapter, an immersive queuing theory teaching module is developed using virtual reality technology. The objective of the study is to present systems engineering concepts in a more sophisticated environment and measure students learning abilities. Furthermore, the study explores the performance gaps between male and female students in manufacturing systems concepts. To investigate the gender biases toward the performance of developed VR module, three efficacy measures (simulation sickness questionnaire, systems usability scale, and presence questionnaire) and two effectiveness measures (NASA …

Statistical Modeling, Learning And Computing For Stochastic Dynamics Of Complex Systems, Mohammadmahdi Hajiha

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

With the recent advances in sensor technology, it is much easier to collect and store streams of system operational and environmental (SOE) data. These data can be used as input to model the underlying behavior of complex engineered systems and phenomenons if appropriate algorithms with well-defined assumptions are developed. This dissertation is comprised of the research work to show the applicability of SOE data when fed into proposed tailored algorithms. The first purposes of these algorithms are to estimate and analyze the reliability of a system as elaborated in Chapter 2. This chapter provides the derivation of closed-form expressions that …

Integration Of Blockchain Technology Into Automobiles To Prevent And Study The Causes Of Accidents, John Kim

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automobile collisions occur daily. We now live in an information-driven world, one where technology is quickly evolving. Blockchain technology can change the automotive industry, the safety of the motoring public and its surrounding environment by incorporating this vast array of information. It can place safety and efficiency at the forefront to pedestrians, public establishments, and provide public agencies with pertinent information securely and efficiently. Other industries where Blockchain technology has been effective in are as follows: supply chain management, logistics, and banking. This paper reviews some statistical information regarding automobile collisions, Blockchain technology, Smart Contracts, Smart Cities; assesses the feasibility …

Wavelet Methods For Very-Short Term Forecasting Of Functional Time Series, Jared K. Nystrom

Theses and Dissertations

Space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (KSC/CCSFS) are complicated by unique requirements for near-real time determination of risk from lightning. Lightning forecast weather sensor networks produce data that are noisy, high volume, and high frequency time series for which traditional forecasting methods are often ill-suited. Current approaches result in significant residual uncertainties and consequentially may result in forecasting operational policies that are excessively conservative or inefficient. This work proposes a new methodology of wavelet-enabled semiparametric modeling to develop accurate and timely forecasts robust against chaotic functional data. Wavelets methods are first used to …

Knowledge Discovery From Complex Event Time Data With Covariates, Samira Karimi

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In particular engineering applications, such as reliability engineering, complex types of data are encountered which require novel methods of statistical analysis. Handling covariates properly while managing the missing values is a challenging task. These type of issues happen frequently in reliability data analysis. Specifically, accelerated life testing (ALT) data are usually conducted by exposing test units of a product to severer-than-normal conditions to expedite the failure process. The resulting lifetime and/or censoring data are often modeled by a probability distribution along with a life-stress relationship. However, if the probability distribution and life-stress relationship selected cannot adequately describe the underlying failure …

Statistically Defensible Wind Tunnel Models, Timothy A. Roche

Theses and Dissertations

Wind tunnels are used to test scale-model air frames in order to collect aerodynamic data. The Subsonic Aerodynamic Research Laboratory (SARL) Wind Tunnel is a low speed wind tunnel located at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The SARL Wind Tunnel team approached AFIT for assistance in creating statistically defensible models for the conditions inside the wind tunnel. During a wind tunnel test, pressure sensors cannot be placed at the test model. Instead, pressure is measured by a pitot probe permanently mounted in the corner of the test chamber. The pressure at the model location is predicted from the measurements taken by …

Modeling And Solving The Outsourcing Risk Management Problem In Multi-Echelon Supply Chains, Arian A. Nahangi

Master's Theses

Worldwide globalization has made supply chains more vulnerable to risk factors, increasing the associated costs of outsourcing goods. Outsourcing is highly beneficial for any company that values building upon its core competencies, but the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic and other crises have exposed significant vulnerabilities within supply chains. These disruptions forced a shift in the production of goods from outsourcing to domestic methods.

This paper considers a multi-echelon supply chain model with global and domestic raw material suppliers, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and markets. All levels within the supply chain network are evaluated from a holistic perspective, calculating a total …

An Examination Into Retention Behavior Of Air Force Female Officers, Jessica M. Astudillo

Theses and Dissertations

Female retention rates in the US military have been considerably lower than that of their male counterparts for numerous years. In the Air Force, women represent 14 percent of officer ranks from O-5 level and above. Comparatively, the overall rate of women officers in service is 20 percent. Understanding the negative factors associated with the attrition rate of this group can help the Air Force leverage positive change. It may also influence adjustments that will increase the number of women serving, and improve diversity throughout both the officer and enlisted ranks. In this study, logistic regression and survival analysis are …

Computational Modeling For Decision-Making Under Climate Change Uncertainty: Reservoir Simulation Game, Julianne Quinn

All ECSTATIC Materials

Almost every decision you make is under uncertainty. Will I need a rain jacket in the afternoon? Will they say yes if I ask them out? Is 1 hour enough time to finish this assignment? Oftentimes, we can use computational modeling to simulate different scenarios of what might happen in the future to inform what decisions are best on average, or what decisions minimize the worst case outcome. For example, you could decide what player to draft for your Fantasy Football team by simulating player performance. In this activity, we will simulate how much water to release from a dam …

A Transdisciplinary Analysis Of Just Transition Pathways To 100% Renewable Electricity, Adewale Aremu Adesanya

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

The transition to using clean, affordable, and reliable electrical energy is critical for enhancing human opportunities and capabilities. In the United States, many states and localities are engaging in this transition despite the lack of ambitious federal policy support. This research builds on the theoretical framework of the multilevel perspective (MLP) of sociotechnical transitions as well as the concept of energy justice to investigate potential pathways to 100 percent renewable energy (RE) for electricity provision in the U.S. This research seeks to answer the question: what are the technical, policy, and perceptual pathways, barriers, and opportunities for just transition to …

Cost Estimating Using A New Learning Curve Theory For Non-Constant Production Rates, Dakotah Hogan, John J. Elshaw, Clay M. Koschnick, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Adedeji B. Badiru, Shawn M. Valentine

Faculty Publications

Traditional learning curve theory assumes a constant learning rate regardless of the number of units produced. However, a collection of theoretical and empirical evidence indicates that learning rates decrease as more units are produced in some cases. These diminishing learning rates cause traditional learning curves to underestimate required resources, potentially resulting in cost overruns. A diminishing learning rate model, namely Boone’s learning curve, was recently developed to model this phenomenon. This research confirms that Boone’s learning curve systematically reduced error in modeling observed learning curves using production data from 169 Department of Defense end-items. However, high amounts of variability in …

Analyzing The Fractal Dimension Of Various Musical Pieces, Nathan Clark

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

One of the most common tools for evaluating data is regression. This technique, widely used by industrial engineers, explores linear relationships between predictors and the response. Each observation of the response is a fixed linear combination of the predictors with an added error element. The method is built on the assumption that this error is normally distributed across all observations and has a mean of zero. In some cases, it has been found that the inherent variation is not the result of a random variable, but is instead the result of self-symmetric properties of the observations. For data with these …

Models For Data Analysis In Accelerated Reliability Growth, Cesar Alexander Ruiz Torres

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This work develops new methodologies for analyzing accelerated testing data in the context of a reliability growth program for a complex multi-component system. Each component has multiple failure modes and the growth program consists of multiple test-fix stages with corrective actions applied at the end of each stage. The first group of methods considers time-to-failure data and test covariates for predicting the final reliability of the system. The time-to-failure of each failure mode is assumed to follow a Weibull distribution with rate parameter proportional to an acceleration factor. Acceleration factors are specific to each failure mode and test covariates. We …

Combining Machine Learning And Empirical Engineering Methods Towards Improving Oil Production Forecasting, Andrew J. Allen

Master's Theses

Current methods of production forecasting such as decline curve analysis (DCA) or numerical simulation require years of historical production data, and their accuracy is limited by the choice of model parameters. Unconventional resources have proven challenging to apply traditional methods of production forecasting because they lack long production histories and have extremely variable model parameters. This research proposes a data-driven alternative to reservoir simulation and production forecasting techniques. We create a proxy-well model for predicting cumulative oil production by selecting statistically significant well completion parameters and reservoir information as independent predictor variables in regression-based models. Then, principal component analysis (PCA) …

Identification Of Patterns And Disruptions In Ambient Sensor Data From Private Homes, Yan Wang

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The world’s population is rapidly aging and the increasing demand for home and health care services from this aging population brings unprecedented challenges to the economy and society. Ambient-assisted smart homes, residences equipped with ambient sensors to monitor the resident’s daily activities in a continuous and unobtrusive way, present great potential to manage the growing care service needs of this older population segment, and enable them to age-in-place.

Despite growing research, using ambient sensor data from private homes to monitor daily activities, health and wellness still faces significant challenges. To study ambient sensor data from private homes where annotated data …

Waiting-Time Paradox In 1922, Naoki Masuda, Takayuki Hiraoka

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

We present an English translation and discussion of an essay that a Japanese physicist, Torahiko Terada, wrote in 1922. In the essay, he described the waiting-time paradox, also called the bus paradox, which is a known mathematical phenomenon in queuing theory, stochastic processes, and modern temporal network analysis. He also observed and analyzed data on Tokyo City trams to verify the relevance of the waiting-time paradox to busy passengers in Tokyo at the time. This essay seems to be one of the earliest documentations of the waiting-time paradox in a sufficiently scientific manner.