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Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons™
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Articles 31 - 60 of 99
Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith
Operational Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Inferential, Sequential, And Adversarial Approaches, Andrew J. Keith
Theses and Dissertations
Modern security threats are characterized by a stochastic, dynamic, partially observable, and ambiguous operational environment. This dissertation addresses such complex security threats using operations research techniques for decision making under uncertainty in operations planning, analysis, and assessment. First, this research develops a new method for robust queue inference with partially observable, stochastic arrival and departure times, motivated by cybersecurity and terrorism applications. In the dynamic setting, this work develops a new variant of Markov decision processes and an algorithm for robust information collection in dynamic, partially observable and ambiguous environments, with an application to a cybersecurity detection problem. In the …
Methods To Support The Project Selection Problem With Non-Linear Portfolio Objectives, Time Sensitive Objectives, Time Sensitive Resource Constraints, And Modeling Inadequacies, Neil C. Ranly
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force relies upon information production activities to gain insight regarding uncertainties affecting important system configuration and in-mission task execution decisions. Constrained resources that prevent the fulfillment of every information production request, multiple information requestors holding different temporal-sensitive objectives, non-constant marginal value preferences, and information-product aging factors that affect the value-of-information complicate the management of these activities. This dissertation reviews project selection research related to these issues and presents novel methods to address these complications. Quantitative experimentation results demonstrate these methods’ significance.
Evaluating Process Improvement Courses Of Action Through Modeling And Simulation, Joseph R. Owens
Evaluating Process Improvement Courses Of Action Through Modeling And Simulation, Joseph R. Owens
Theses and Dissertations
Quantifying an expected improvement when considering moderate-complexity changes to a process is time consuming and has potential to overlook stochastic effects. By modeling a process as a Numerical Design Structure Matrix (NDSM), simulating the proposed changes, and evaluating performance, quantification can be rapidly accomplished to understand stochastic effects. This thesis explores a method to evaluate complex process changes within Six Sigma DMAIC process improvement to identify the most desirable outcome amongst several improvement options. A tool to perform the modeling and evaluation is developed. This process evaluation tool is verified for functionality, then is demonstrated against generic processes, a case …
Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo
Forecasting Us Army Enlistment Contract Production In Complex Geographical Marketing Areas, Joshua L. Mcdonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill, Christian Pardo
Faculty Publications
Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting. Design/methodology/approach: Time series methods, regression modeling, principle components and marketing research are included in this paper. Findings: This paper found the unique ability of multiple statistical methods applied to a forecasting context to consider the effects of inputs that are controlled to some degree by a decision maker. Research limitations/implications: This work will successfully inform the US Army recruiting leadership on how this improved methodology will improve their recruitment process.
Practical implications: Improved US Army analytical technique for forecasting recruiting goals.
Improving Resource Management In The Afghan Air Force, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Tamiko L. Ritschel
Improving Resource Management In The Afghan Air Force, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Tamiko L. Ritschel
Faculty Publications
The nascent Afghan Air Force (AAF) is rapidly changing with new platforms programmed and existing platforms expanding. As US and coalition forces draw down, the transition of financial responsibility from American to Afghan processes is on the horizon.
2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model, Bret N. Witham
2018 Military Retirement Options: An Expected Net Present Value Decision Analysis Model, Bret N. Witham
Theses and Dissertations
The 2016 NDAA authorized changes to the military retirement system transitioning from the legacy High-3 defined benefit annuity to the new Blended Retirement System (BRS). In exchange for a reduced defined benefit annuity, the BRS incorporates automatic and matching contributions to the member’s Thrift Savings Plan and a continuation payment offered at 12 years of service. In 2018,service members with less than 12 years of service will make an irrevocable decision between the two retirement systems. This research effort addresses the problem by developing a decision analysis model incorporating up to 27 different input variables. Service members can use the …
The Impact Of Learning Curve Model Selection And Criteria For Cost Estimation Accuracy In The Dod, Candace Honious, Brandon Johnson, John J. Elshaw, A. B. Badiru
The Impact Of Learning Curve Model Selection And Criteria For Cost Estimation Accuracy In The Dod, Candace Honious, Brandon Johnson, John J. Elshaw, A. B. Badiru
Faculty Publications
The first part of this manuscript examines the impact of configuration changes to the learning curve when implemented during production. This research is a study on the impact to the learning curve slope when production is continuous but a configuration change occurs. Analysis discovered the learning curve slope after a configuration change is different from the stable learning curve slope pre-configuration change. The newly configured units were statistically different from previous units. This supports that the new configuration should be estimated with a new learning curve equation. The research also discovered the post-configuration slope is always steeper than the stable …
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (Uav) Operators’ Workload Reduction: The Effect Of 3d Audio On Operators’ Workload And Performance During Multi-Aircraft Control, Sungbin Kim
Theses and Dissertations
The importance and number of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations are rapidly growing in both military and civilian applications. This growth has produced significant manpower issues, producing a desire that multiple aircraft are controlled by a single operator as opposed to the current model where one aircraft may require multiple operators. A potential issue is the need for an operator to monitor radio traffic for the call signs of multi-aircraft. An investigation of the use of 3D sound was undertaken to investigate whether an automatic parser, which preselected the spatial location of relevant versus irrelevant call signs, could aid UAV …
Analysis Of Inpatient Hospital Staff Mental Workload By Means Of Discrete-Event Simulation, Erich W. Maxheimer
Analysis Of Inpatient Hospital Staff Mental Workload By Means Of Discrete-Event Simulation, Erich W. Maxheimer
Theses and Dissertations
Many process improvement tools have been applied to the healthcare industry to improve safety and efficiency. However, nearly all of these tools have neglected to explicitly quantify mental workload of healthcare providers despite the consensus that it is related to human performance. This research uses the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT), a discrete-event simulation (DES), to quantify mental workload. Specifically, this research examines staff members in an inpatient unit at the Wright-Patterson Medical Center to detect workload differences between staff, identify trends which lead to high workload demands, evaluate the influence of patient load on mental workload, and test …
Determining The Degree Of The Routinization Of Additive Manufacturing In The Air Logistics Complexes, Candis A. Woods
Determining The Degree Of The Routinization Of Additive Manufacturing In The Air Logistics Complexes, Candis A. Woods
Theses and Dissertations
Fiscal constraints have affected the USAF’s spending and sustainment of weapons systems that are being utilized beyond their programmed life cycle; therefore, it is imperative that processes be given the critical eye for improvement, innovative approaches, and/or best practice implementation. The AFSC, part of the AFMC, has embarked on a groundbreaking effort to transform operations and leverage industry best practices, while maintaining focus on warfighter support to create “The AFSC Way.” The AFSC Way is based on a shared leadership model that emphasizes speed, safety, and quality, which gives way to innovative ideas and new technologies in order to achieve …
United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Amelia E. Bradshaw
United States Air Force Officer Manpower Planning Problem Via Approximate Dynamic Programming, Amelia E. Bradshaw
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force (USAF) is concerned with managing its officer corps to ensure sufficient personnel for mission readiness. Manpower planning for the USAF is a complex process which requires making decisions about accessions. Uncertainty about officer retention complicates such decisions. We formulate a Markov decision process model of the Air Force officer manpower planning problem (AFO-MPP) and utilize a least squares approximate policy iteration algorithm as an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) technique to attain solutions. Computational experiments are conducted on two AFO-MPP instances to compare the performance of the policy determined with the ADP algorithm to a benchmark …
The Influence Of Operational Resources And Activities On Indirect Personnel Costs: A Multilevel Modeling Approach, Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, Edward D. White, Jeffery D. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher
The Influence Of Operational Resources And Activities On Indirect Personnel Costs: A Multilevel Modeling Approach, Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, Edward D. White, Jeffery D. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher
Faculty Publications
Indirect activities often represent an underemphasized, yet significant, contributing source of costs for organizations. In order to manage indirect costs, organizations must understand how these costs behave relative to changes in operational resources and activities. This is of particular interest to the Air Force and its sister services, because recent and projected reductions in defense spending are forcing reductions in their operational variables, and insufficient research exists to help them understand how this may influence indirect costs. Furthermore, although academic research on indirect costs has advanced the knowledge behind the modeling and behavior of indirect costs, significant gaps in the …
Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation
Pragmatic Divestment Of Kc-135 Navigators In The Special Operations Air Refueling Mission, Andrew P. Nation
Theses and Dissertations
In the late 1990s, the Air Force eliminated over 200 KC-135 navigators, leaving 50 remaining for the aircraft's most complex Special Operations Air Refueling (SOAR) mission. As the Air Force unveils the KC-46 Pegasus, this mission will continue but without a position for the navigator. Instead, navigators will undergo divestment as the SOAR mission transfers to the KC-46. Current plans indicate navigators will not only remain as the KC-46 arrives, but inbound navigators will continue arriving until 2018. This thesis applies the Delphi method, a process eliciting analysis anonymously from a panel of experts, in order to examine the elements …
Vehicle Minimization For The Multimodal Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows, Benjamin A . Clapp
Vehicle Minimization For The Multimodal Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows, Benjamin A . Clapp
Theses and Dissertations
The algorithm proposed here is used for heuristic solutions for the Multimodal Multiple Vehicle Routing Problem with Unloading Capacity, Pickup and Dropoff, and Time Windows, solved so as to minimize the number of vehicles used, subject to varying objective function values for each vehicle. The MVRP is simplified and split into a routing problem and a scheduling problem. The routing problem is addressed by Dijkstra's Algorithm. This generates a new network for the second stage of the algorithm. It is assumed that the shortest path is the correct path to use, and shipments each travel unimodally. The scheduling problem is …
Alternative Active Duty Military Retirement Plan, Amy L. Schmidt
Alternative Active Duty Military Retirement Plan, Amy L. Schmidt
Theses and Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture Score: Evaluation Applied To Joint Force Protection Future State Design, Larry D. Cotton, Gary A. Haase
Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture Score: Evaluation Applied To Joint Force Protection Future State Design, Larry D. Cotton, Gary A. Haase
Theses and Dissertations
This research presents a methodology to evaluate the quality of a system's architecture using principles drawn from Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) and resulting in a Value-Driven Enterprise Architecture Score (VDEA-Score). This is an overall numerical architecture quality score useful to a system's management team to identify the advantages and disadvantages of a system design and associated architecture documentation or to track its quality across discrete evaluation epochs. This effort determined which aspects of the architecture are most valuable to the stakeholder in the areas of (1) the system effectiveness values (quality of the instantiated system being represented and its ability to …
The Hybrid Counterinsurgency Strategy: System Dynamics Employed To Develop A Behavioral Model Of Joint Strategy, Ferdinand Maldonado
The Hybrid Counterinsurgency Strategy: System Dynamics Employed To Develop A Behavioral Model Of Joint Strategy, Ferdinand Maldonado
Theses and Dissertations
Since the recent focus on the Global War on Terror, both military and civilian theorists have begun to “relearn” the intricacies of counterinsurgency warfare. We face difficult challenges when confronting non-state actors that tend to attack in the time between conventional battles and the establishment of stable governments. This research compares and contrasts current counterinsurgency strategies (Hearts and Minds and Cost Benefit Theory) by applying System Dynamics to provide insight into the influences and emergent behavior patterns of counterinsurgency systems. The information gained from the development of the models and from their simulation behaviors is used to construct a System …
Forecasting Flying Hour Costs Of The B-1, B-2, And B-52 Bomber Aircraft, Stefanie L. Van Dyk
Forecasting Flying Hour Costs Of The B-1, B-2, And B-52 Bomber Aircraft, Stefanie L. Van Dyk
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis both evaluates, and presents improvements to, the current method of forecasting flying costs of Air Force aircraft. It uses depot level repairable (DLR) and consumable (CONS) data for the Air Force's bomber platforms: B-1B, B-2, and B-52H. The current forecasting method assumes a proportional relationship between costs and flying hours such that 1) when no hours are flown costs are zero, and 2) a 1% increase in flying hours will increase costs by 1%. The findings of this research indicate that applying log-linear ordinary least squares regression techniques may be an improved fit of flying cost data over …
An Adaptive Tabu Search Heuristic For The Location Routing Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows With A Theater Distribution Application, Robert E. Burks Jr.
An Adaptive Tabu Search Heuristic For The Location Routing Pickup And Delivery Problem With Time Windows With A Theater Distribution Application, Robert E. Burks Jr.
Theses and Dissertations
The time constrained pickup and delivery problem (PDPTW) is a problem of finding a set of routes for a fleet of vehicles in order to satisfy a set of transportation requests. Each request represents a user-specified pickup and delivery location. The PDPTW may be used to model many problems in logistics and public transportation. The location routing problem (LRP) is an extension of the vehicle routing problem where the solution identifies the optimal location of the depots and provides the vehicle schedules and distribution routes. This dissertation seeks to blend the PDPTW and LRP areas of research and formulate a …
Modeling A Reparable Supply Chain And Applying Cpfr Concepts, Sandra A. Mayhall
Modeling A Reparable Supply Chain And Applying Cpfr Concepts, Sandra A. Mayhall
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force supply chain includes parts required to build, fix, or maintain aircraft delivered to the warfighter to carry out missions. Industry has shown that following Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) concepts, particularly reducing inventory through accurate demand forecasts, has increased profits in part by lowering the holding costs of inventory and increasing sales. This is analogous to the Air Force increasing aircraft availability. There is scant evidence that demand forecasts generated at any level in the Air Force are shared with the intent of coordinating replenishment. This thesis uses a simple discrete-event stochastic simulation model to show …
Reducing Uncertainty In Effects-Based Operations, Wilburn B. Mclamb
Reducing Uncertainty In Effects-Based Operations, Wilburn B. Mclamb
Theses and Dissertations
Known as the fog of war, uncertainty has been prevalent in the conduct of military operations throughout human history. Intelligence collection efforts are tasked to reduce this uncertainty through the collection of information. Utilizing Shannon's entropy as a measure of the expected information gain due to an intelligence collection effort, a methodology is developed to prioritize and allocate intelligence assets in an efficient manner. Incorporated in this methodology are target priority and the requirement to reassess dynamic targets. The application area for the methodology is Effects-Based Operations. A generalized state model is developed to conduct adversary system-of-systems analysis. This model …
Understanding Innovation Adoption In The Air Force, Morgan J. Evans
Understanding Innovation Adoption In The Air Force, Morgan J. Evans
Theses and Dissertations
Innovation adoption has become a critical issue for organizations in both the public and private sectors. The search for competitive advantage has led to the recognition that innovation is a vital ingredient for an organization's survival and profitability in this information age. The United States Air Force is seeking to adapt to this new information age by transforming its business processes in order to sustain its competitive advantage as the world's most respected air force. Adopting innovations and integrating new or improved technologies, capabilities, concepts, and processes into Air Force planning and acquisition activities, organizations, and operations are goals of …
Air Force Jp-8 Fuel Distribution System: A Statistical Analysis To Determine Where And When To Sample, Eric J. Heath
Air Force Jp-8 Fuel Distribution System: A Statistical Analysis To Determine Where And When To Sample, Eric J. Heath
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Petroleum Office at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio collects JP-8 sampling data, but this data doesn't undergo analysis to determine the health of the base-level JP-8 fuel distribution system. Commanders possess no known confidence level when assessing base-level fuel health. Therefore, the objective of this research is to assess Air Force base-level fuel sampling data to determine the base-level sampling point that ensures a quality and healthy product at the aircraft. Also, this research seeks to identify how often correlation sampling should take place. Sample test pass rates are analyzed from three locations, receipt, storage, and vehicles/aircraft, …
Output Analysis And Comparison Of Deployment Models With Varying Fidelity, Matthew M. Gill
Output Analysis And Comparison Of Deployment Models With Varying Fidelity, Matthew M. Gill
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis explores the changes in insights that result from using different types of models to assess the capability of deploying the Stryker Brigade within specific timeline goals. The thesis uses as its primary base a study conducted in 2002 by USTRANSCOM to evaluate the ability of Stryker to meet stated deployment timeline goals. Specifically, the author compares the outputs from four different models as they change over three different deployment scenarios and 10 different routes. The study investigates the relationships among the outputs of spreadsheet models, spreadsheet models with elements of variability added, and low- and high-level discrete-event simulations. …
Optimization Model For Base-Level Delivery Routes And Crew Scheduling, Young-Ho Cha
Optimization Model For Base-Level Delivery Routes And Crew Scheduling, Young-Ho Cha
Theses and Dissertations
In the U.S. Air Force, a Logistic Readiness Squadron (LRS) provides material management, distribution, and oversight of contingency operations. Dispatchers in the LRS must quickly prepare schedules that meet the needs of their customers while dealing with real-world constraints, such as time windows, delivery priorities, and intermittent recurring missions. Currently, LRS vehicle operation elements are faced with a shortage of manpower and lack an efficient scheduling algorithm and tool. The purpose of this research is to enhance the dispatchers' capability to handle flexible situations and produce "good" schedules within current manpower restrictions. In this research, a new scheduling model and …
Barriers To Electronic Records Management (Erm): An Exploratory Case Study Investigating Erm In The Deployed Environment During Operations Enduring Freedom And Iraqi Freedom, Brian G. Hobbs
Theses and Dissertations
Corporate and government organizations can use electronic records as an important strategic resource, if the records are managed properly. In addition to meeting legal requirements, electronic records can play a vital role in the management and operation of an organization's activities. Corporate America is facing challenges in managing electronic records, and so too is the U.S. Air Force (USAF). The deployed environment is particularly problematic for electronic records management (ERM). This research, thus, investigates ERM in the deployed environment to identify and characterize the barriers faced by USAF personnel who deployed to locations supporting Operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom. …
A Multiple-Case Analysis Of Lean Six Sigma Deployment And Implementation Strategies, Peter M. O'Rourke
A Multiple-Case Analysis Of Lean Six Sigma Deployment And Implementation Strategies, Peter M. O'Rourke
Theses and Dissertations
Lean and Six Sigma are recent developments in continuous improvement methodology that have been popularized by several high-profile companies. The success and complementary nature of these methodologies has led to their combination into a single methodology, commonly called Lean Six Sigma or Lean Sigma. Although there is considerable literature available and many consultants involved with Lean Six Sigma, very little published research addresses the practical experiences of companies that have implemented Lean Six Sigma. The research question for this research is: How and why are certain private sector implementations of Lean Six Sigma successful or unsuccessful? The investigative questions further …
Assessing The Usefulness Of The Decision Framework For Identifying And Selecting Knowledge Management Projects, Kevin G. Budai
Assessing The Usefulness Of The Decision Framework For Identifying And Selecting Knowledge Management Projects, Kevin G. Budai
Theses and Dissertations
Knowledge management (KM) is becoming recognized as a valuable tool for the Department of Defense (DoD) in its effort to maintain a competitive, strategic advantage against its enemies in a new threat environment. Decision superiority is the ultimate end result and is only possible through the effective and efficient use of its chief key resource--knowledge. As the Air Force seeks to transform the way it does business the concept of knowledge management has made its way to the forefront of both the Air Force's Information Strategy and Information Resource Flight Plan. This research assesses the usefulness of a knowledge management …
Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon
Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon
Theses and Dissertations
Many countries realize the importance of the retention of qualified military personnel, and have tried to solve this problem using various methods. Nevertheless, the effects of those methods have not been determined or proven yet. The military retention problem is closely related to each individual's separation decision from the military. The characteristics of this decision are multi-objective and highly subjective. Accordingly, the effectiveness of various methods is heavily dependant on the value set of each individual. Decision Analysis (DA) using Value Focused Thinking (VFT) can be an excellent process to deal with this decision. Also, the data can reflect the …
Value-Focused Thinking In The Presence Of Weight Ambiguity: A Solution Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Timothy W. Porter
Value-Focused Thinking In The Presence Of Weight Ambiguity: A Solution Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Timothy W. Porter
Theses and Dissertations
When a Decision Maker is asked to provide his or her preferences, the response represents a snapshot in time. While their preference structure elicited at any given moment may represent their revealed preferences at that point in time, it may change over time. These changing preferences over time represent ambiguity in the decision maker's preferences. Other sources of ambiguity may exist. One weakness of many decision analysis techniques today is the inability to incorporate ambiguity into the basic decision model. The existence of the problem has been known and commented on for many years. This research addresses that problem. It …