Civil Engineering Commons^™

Development And Evaluation Of Seasonal, Continental-Scale Streamflow Forecasts, Elissa Marie Yeates

Theses and Dissertations

Methods of forecasting streamflow using atmospheric ensembles and hydrologic routing have greatly improved over the past decades. These forecasts anticipate the timing and magnitude of streamflow peaks, enabling early warning of floods. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have enabled production of forecasts months ahead, which are less precise but give a useful sense of trends.

The purpose of this study is to produce and evaluate a seasonal streamflow forecast model using a Muskingum routing hydrologic model coupled with runoff from a land surface model, and atmospheric input from a medium-term atmospheric and precipitation model. To evaluate the skill of the …

Incorporating Antecedent Soil Moisture Into Streamflow Forecasting, Abdoul Oubeidillah, Glenn Tootle, Thomas Piechota

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study incorporates antecedent (preceding) soil moisture into forecasting streamflow volumes within the North Platte River Basin, Colorado/Wyoming (USA). The incorporation of antecedent soil moisture accounts for infiltration and can improve streamflow predictions. Current Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) forecasting methods are replicated, and a comparison is drawn between current NRCS forecasts and proposed forecasting methods using antecedent soil moisture. Current predictors used by the NRCS in regression-based streamflow forecasting include precipitation, streamflow persistence (previous season streamflow volume) and snow water equivalent (SWE) from SNOTEL (snow telemetry) sites. Proposed methods utilize antecedent soil moisture as a predictor variable in addition …

Tree-Ring Reconstructions Of Streamflow For The Tennessee Valley, Sallyrose Anderson, Ross Ogle, Glenn Tootle, Abdoul Oubeidillah

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study reports the preliminary results from a statistical screening of tree-ring width records from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB), to evaluate the strength of the hydrological signal, in dendrochronological records from the Tennessee Valley. We used United States Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data from 11 gages, within the Tennessee Valley, and regional tree-ring chronologies, to analyze the dendroclimatic potential of the region, and create seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation, date, and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that large numbers of regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated …

Identification Of Long Term Changes And Evaluation Of The Relationships Among Streamflow Variability And Oceanic-Atmospheric Indices, Soumya Sagarika

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

To examine the effects of climate variability on streamflow, this thesis presents a comprehensive analysis of the streamflow variability of the continental United States and its association with oceanic-atmospheric indices. First, the presence of trends with consideration of short term and long term persistence followed by shifts over the past years in the continental U.S. streamflow were analyzed by using the non-parametric tests: Mann Kendall and Pettitt. Second, the spatio-temporal relationships between seasonal streamflow variability of continental U.S. and sea surface temperatures (SST) and 500 mbar geopotential height (Z500) of the Pacific and Atlantic were established using the singular valued …

Oceanic-Atmospheric And Hydrologic Variability In Long Lead-Time Forecasting, Abdoul Aziz Oubeidillah

Doctoral Dissertations

Water managers throughout the world are challenged with managing scarce resources and therefore rely heavily on forecasts to allocate and meet various water demands. The need for improved streamflow and snowpack forecast models is of the utmost importance. In this research, the use of oceanic and atmospheric variables as predictors was investigated to improve the long lead-time (three to nine months) forecast of streamflow and snowpack. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis was used to identify a region of Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs and a region of 500 mbar geopotential height (Z500mb) that were teleconnected with streamflow and snowpack. The …