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- Uncertainty -- Mathematical models (5)
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- Hydrologic models -- Data processing (1)
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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Civil Engineering
The Quest For Model Uncertainty Quantification: A Hybrid Ensemble And Variational Data Assimilation Framework, Peyman Abbaszadeh, Hamid Moradkhani, Dacian Daescu
The Quest For Model Uncertainty Quantification: A Hybrid Ensemble And Variational Data Assimilation Framework, Peyman Abbaszadeh, Hamid Moradkhani, Dacian Daescu
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
This article presents a novel approach to couple a deterministic four‐dimensional variational (4DVAR) assimilation method with the particle filter (PF) ensemble data assimilation system, to produce a robust approach for dual‐state‐parameter estimation. In our proposed method, the Hybrid Ensemble and Variational Data Assimilation framework for Environmental systems (HEAVEN), we characterize the model structural uncertainty in addition to model parameter and input uncertainties. The sequential PF is formulated within the 4DVAR system to design a computationally efficient feedback mechanism throughout the assimilation period. In this framework, the 4DVAR optimization produces the maximum a posteriori estimate of state variables at the beginning …
A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment For New York Harbor, Philip M. Orton, T. M. Hall, Stefan A. Talke, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, S. Vinogradov
A Validated Tropical-Extratropical Flood Hazard Assessment For New York Harbor, Philip M. Orton, T. M. Hall, Stefan A. Talke, Alan F. Blumberg, Nickitas Georgas, S. Vinogradov
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Recent studies of flood risk at New York Harbor (NYH) have shown disparate results for the 100 year storm tide, providing an uncertain foundation for the flood mitigation response after Hurricane Sandy. Here we present a flood hazard assessment that improves confidence in our understanding of the region's present-day potential for flooding, by separately including the contribution of tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs), and validating our modeling study at multiple stages against historical observations. The TC assessment is based on a climatology of 606 synthetic storms developed from a statistical-stochastic model of North Atlantic TCs. The ETC assessment …
Estimating River Discharge Using Multiple-Tide Gauges Distributed Along A Channel, Hamed R. Moftakhari, David A. Jay, Stefan Talke
Estimating River Discharge Using Multiple-Tide Gauges Distributed Along A Channel, Hamed R. Moftakhari, David A. Jay, Stefan Talke
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Reliable estimation of freshwater inflow to the ocean from large tidal rivers is vital for water resources management and climate analyses. Discharge gauging stations are typically located beyond the tidal intrusion reach, such that inputs and losses occurring closer to the ocean are not included. Here, we develop a method of estimating river discharge using multiple gauges and time-dependent tidal statistics determined via wavelet analysis. The Multiple-gauge Tidal Discharge Estimate (MTDE) method is developed using data from the Columbia River and Fraser River estuaries and calibrated against river discharge. Next, we evaluate the general applicability of MTDE by testing an …
Multi-Criteria Evaluation Of Cmip5 Gcms For Climate Change Impact Analysis, Ali Ahmadalipour, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani, Ashish Sharma
Multi-Criteria Evaluation Of Cmip5 Gcms For Climate Change Impact Analysis, Ali Ahmadalipour, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani, Ashish Sharma
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Climate change is expected to have severe impacts on global hydrological cycle along with food-water-energy nexus. Currently, there are many climate models used in predicting important climatic variables. Though there have been advances in the field, there are still many problems to be resolved related to reliability, uncertainty, and computing needs, among many others. In the present work, we have analyzed performance of 20 different global climate models (GCMs) from Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset over the Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest USA. We demonstrate a statistical multicriteria approach, using univariate and multivariate techniques, …
Recent Progress In Performance Evaluations And Near Real-Time Assessment Of Operational Ocean Products, Fabrice Hernandez, Edward Blockley, Gary B. Brassington, Fraser Davidson, Prasanth Divakaran, Marie Drévillon, Shiro Ishizaki, Marcos Garcia-Sotillo, Patrick J. Hogan, Priidik Lagemaa, Bruno Levier, Matthew Martin, Avichal Mehra, Christopher Mooers, Nicolas Ferry, Andrew Ryan, Charly Regnier, Alistair Sellar, Gregory C. Smith, Sarantis Sofianos, Todd Spindler, Gianluca Volpe, John Wilkin, Edward Zaron, Aijun Zhang
Recent Progress In Performance Evaluations And Near Real-Time Assessment Of Operational Ocean Products, Fabrice Hernandez, Edward Blockley, Gary B. Brassington, Fraser Davidson, Prasanth Divakaran, Marie Drévillon, Shiro Ishizaki, Marcos Garcia-Sotillo, Patrick J. Hogan, Priidik Lagemaa, Bruno Levier, Matthew Martin, Avichal Mehra, Christopher Mooers, Nicolas Ferry, Andrew Ryan, Charly Regnier, Alistair Sellar, Gregory C. Smith, Sarantis Sofianos, Todd Spindler, Gianluca Volpe, John Wilkin, Edward Zaron, Aijun Zhang
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Operational ocean forecast systems provide routine marine products to an ever-widening community of users and stakeholders. The majority of users need information about the quality and reliability of the products to exploit them fully. Hence, forecast centres have been developing improved methods for evaluating and communicating the quality of their products. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) OceanView, along with the Copernicus European Marine Core Service and other national and international programmes, has facilitated the development of coordinated validation activities among these centres. New metrics, assessing a wider range of ocean parameters, have been defined and implemented in real-time. An …
On The Assessment Of Reliability In Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Event Forecasting, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
On The Assessment Of Reliability In Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Event Forecasting, Caleb Matthew Dechant, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
Probabilistic forecasts are commonly used to communicate uncertainty in the occurrence of hydrometeorological events. Although probabilistic forecasting is common, conventional methods for assessing the reliability of these forecasts are approximate. Among the most common methods for assessing reliability, the decomposed Brier Score and Reliability Diagram treat an observed string of events as samples from multiple Binomial distributions, but this is an approximation of the forecast reliability, leading to unnecessary loss of information. This article suggests testing the hypothesis of reliability via the Poisson-Binomial distribution, which is a generalized solution to the Binomial distribution, providing a more accurate model of the …
Sensitivity Of Columbia Basin Runoff To Long-Term Changes In Multi-Model Cmip5 Precipitation Simulations, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Sensitivity Of Columbia Basin Runoff To Long-Term Changes In Multi-Model Cmip5 Precipitation Simulations, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
In this study, we used precipitation elasticity index of streamflow, to reflect on the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in future precipitation. We estimated precipitation elasticity of streamflow from: (1) simulated streamflow by the VIC model using observed precipitation for the current climate (1963–2003); (2) simulated streamflow by the VIC model using simulated precipitation from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010–2099) including two different pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two different downscaled products (BCSD and MACA). The hydrological model was calibrated at 1/16 latitude-longitude resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the subbasin outlets of …
Impacts Of Climate Change On The Seasonality Of Extremes In The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Impacts Of Climate Change On The Seasonality Of Extremes In The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of extremes i.e. both high and low flows in the Columbia River basin were analyzed using three seasonality indices, namely the seasonality ratio (SR), weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD) and weighted persistence (WP). These indices reflect the streamflow regime, timing and variability in timing of extreme events respectively. The three indices were estimated from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by the VIC model using simulated inputs from ten combinations of bias corrected and downscaled CMIP5 inputs for the current climate (1979–2005); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated inputs from ten combinations of …
The Effect Of Multi-Model Averaging Of Climate Model Outputs On The Seasonality Of Rainfall Over The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani
The Effect Of Multi-Model Averaging Of Climate Model Outputs On The Seasonality Of Rainfall Over The Columbia River Basin, Mehmet Demirel, Arun Rana, Hamid Moradkhani
Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations
The rainfall seasonality index is the measure of precipitation distribution throughout the seasonal cycle. The aim of this study is to compare the effect of different multi-model averaging methods on the rainfall seasonality index at each 1/16 latitude-longitude cells covering the Columbia River Basin. In accordance with the same, ten different climate model outputs are selected from 45 available climate models from CMIP5 dataset. The reanalysis precipitation data is used to estimate the errors in rainfall seasonality for the climate model outputs. The inverse variance method and statistical multi criteria analysis (SMCA) method were used to estimate the weights for …