Aerospace Engineering Commons^™

Advanced Ensemble Modeling Method For Space Object State Prediction Accounting For Uncertainty In Atmospheric Density, Smriti Nandan Paul, Richard J. Licata, Piyush M. Mehta

Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space traffic management activities such as the satellite conjunction analysis. This paper investigates the evolution of orbit error distribution in the presence of atmospheric density uncertainties, which are modeled using probabilistic machine learning techniques. The recently proposed "HASDM-ML," "CHAMP-ML," and "MSIS-UQ" machine learning models for density estimation (Licata and Mehta, 2022b; Licata et al., 2022b) are used in this work. The investigation is convoluted because of the spatial and temporal correlation of the atmospheric density …