Engineering Commons^™

Anticipated Changes In Precipitation Events Over The 21st Century Using Community Climate System Model, Version 4, Scott Tavish Deneale

Masters Theses

Future global daily precipitation data from Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) were analyzed to evaluate changes in a variety of precipitation parameters over the 21st century. Multiple ensemble members of 21st century Representative Community Pathways (RCP) radiative scenarios were included in the model to provide an array of potential future climate change results. Multiple ensembles of historic daily precipitation data from CCSM4 were compared with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V1DD daily precipitation data and Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) monthly precipitation data. Annual average and 95th percentile precipitation values were averaged from 1997-2005 …

Impacts Of Climate Change On Hydrology And Water Resources In The Boise And Spokane River Basins, Xin Jin, Venkataramana Sridhar

Civil Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the Pacific Northwest, warming climate has resulted in a lengthened growing season, declining snowpack, and earlier timing of spring runoff. This study characterizes the impact of climate change in two basins in Idaho, the Spokane River and the Boise River basins. We simulated the basin-scale hydrology by coupling the downscaled precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of global climate models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), between 2010 and 2060 and assess the impacts of climate change on water resources in the region. For the Boise River basin, changes in precipitation ranged from −3.8 to 36%. …

Fertilization Effects On The Ecohydrology Of A Southern California Annual Grassland, Anthony J. Parolari, Michael L. Goulden, Rafael L. Bras

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Research and Publications

Nitrogen limits leaf gas exchange, canopy development, and evapotranspiration in many ecosystems. In dryland ecosystems, it is unclear whether increased anthropogenic nitrogen inputs alter the widely recognized dominance of water and energy constraints on ecohydrology. We use observations from a factorial irrigation and fertilization experiment in a nitrogen-limited southern California annual grassland to explore this hypothesis. Our analysis shows growing season soil moisture and canopy-scale water vapor conductance are equivalent in control and fertilized plots. This consistency arises as fertilization-induced increases in leaf area index (LAI) are offset by reduced leaf area-based stomatal conductance, gs. We interpret this as evidence …

Technical Note: Bias Correcting Climate Model Simulated Daily Temperature Extremes With Quantile Mapping, Bridget Thrasher, Edwin P. Maurer, Philip B. Duffy, Colin Mckellar

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

When applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diuWhen applying a quantile mapping-based bias correction to daily temperature extremes simulated by a global climate model (GCM), the transformed values of maximum and minimum temperatures are changed, and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) can become physically unrealistic. While causes are not thoroughly explored, there is a strong relationship between GCM biases in snow albedo feedback during snowmelt and bias correction resulting in unrealistic DTR values. We propose a technique …

Evaluating Climate Change Effects In Two Contrasting Reservoirs Using Two-Dimensional Water Quality And Hydrodynamic Models, Oliver Obregon

Theses and Dissertations

I analyzed and compared impacts from global climate change (GCC) and land use change to Deer Creek (United States) a temperate reservoir and Aguamilpa (Mexico), a tropical reservoir by using calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) water quality and hydrodynamic models based on field data over an extended time period. I evaluated and compared the sensitivity to predicted GCC and land use changes. I individually evaluated changes to air temperature (TAIR), inflow rates (Q), and nutrient loads (PO4-P and NO3-NO2-N) followed by analysis of worst case scenarios. I developed analysis methods using indexes to represent the total …

Application Of A K-Nearest Neighbour Weather Generator For Simulation Of Historical And Future Climate Variables In The Upper Thames River Basin, Leanna M. King

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has the potential to significantly alter the hydrologic cycle, changing the frequency and intensity of precipitation events in an area. It is necessary to quantify these effects to effectively manage water resources in the future. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs), often used in climate change research, have spatial resolutions that are too large to capture the local climate characteristics of a watershed. As a result, several downscaling tools have been developed, including stochastic weather generators. A methodology for the simulation of historical and future climate data using a nonparametric K-Nearest Neighbour block resampling weather generator with perturbation …

Analysis Of Relative Sea Level Variations And Trends In The Chesapeake Bay: Is There Evidence For Acceleration In Sea Level Rise?, Tal Ezer, William B. Corlett

CCPO Publications

Over the past few decades the pace of relative sea level rise (SLR) in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) has been 2-3 times faster than that of the globally mean absolute sea level. Our study is part of ongoing research that tries to determine if this SLR trend is continuing at the same pace, slowing down (SLR deceleration) or speeding up (SLR acceleration). We introduce a new analysis method for sea level data that is based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT); the analysis separates the SLR trend from other oscillating modes of different scales. Bootstrap calculations using …

Climate Change Impacts On Streamflow, Water Quality, And Best Management Practices For The Shell And Logan Creek Watersheds In Nebraska, M. W. Van Liew, S. Feng, T. B. Pathak

Biological Systems Engineering: Papers and Publications

Improvements in the management of water, sediment, and nutrients under future climatic conditions are needed to ensure increased crop and livestock production to meet greater global needs and the future availability of water for competing demands and protection against adverse water quality impairments. This study determined the impacts of future climate change scenarios on streamflow, water quality, and best management practices (BMPs) for two watersheds in Nebraska, USA. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate streamflow, sediment, total nitrogen (N) and total phosphorus (P) from the Shell Creek Watershed near Columbus, Nebraska and the Logan Creek …

Developing The Next Generation Of Women And Minority Scientists For The Nuclear Energy Industry, Darrell Burrell, Andrea Todd, Aikyna Finch, Maurice Dawson

Maurice Dawson

The largest source of carbon dioxide emissions globally is the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) in power plants, automobiles, industrial facilities and other sources. Generating electricity is the single largest source of carbon dioxide emissions, representing 41% of all emissions. Since 2007 the United States has been more actively considering nuclear power as an option for developing energy. Three decades after the Three Mile Island accident seemed to doom the nuclear power industry, the idea of a nuclear renaissance has been gaining public acceptance as a way to generate energy without greenhouse gas emissions and meet …

A System Dynamics Based Integrated Assessment Modelling Of Global-Regional Climate Change: A Model For Analyzing The Behaviour Of The Social-Energy-Economy-Climate System, Mohammad Khaled Akhtar

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI (version 2) represents the society-biosphere-climate-economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of the ANEMI model version 2 is based on the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows for the understanding and modelling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adopting to changing global conditions within an integrated assessment modelling framework. This thesis presents the ANEMI model version 2 and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. Two levels …

Climate Change Policy Could Make Keystone Xl Obsolete, Adam Liska

Adam Liska Papers

Clearly the Keystone XL pipeline threatens both surface and ground water that sustains the agricultural economy of Nebraska, but the projected profitability of tar sands oil and the pipeline operation are dependent on the future economics of climate change. Three recent scientific studies estimate the total carbon intensity of tar sands-based gasoline from Alberta (from both production and burning of the fuel) at an average of roughly 22 percent higher than U.S. gasoline in 2005, with the range of average carbon intensities for tar sands-gasoline at 16 to 27 percent higher than most other sources.

An Integrated System Dynamics Model For Analyzing Behaviour Of The Social-Energy-Economic-Climatic System: Model Description, Mohammad Khaled Akhtar, Slobodan P. Simonovic, Jacob Wibe, Jim Macgee, Jim Davies

Water Resources Research Report

The feedback based integrated assessment model ANEMI represents the society-biosphereclimate- economy-energy system of the earth and biosphere. The development of ANEMI model is done using the system dynamics simulation approach that (a) allows understanding and modeling of complex global change and (b) assists in the investigation of possible policy options for mitigating, and/or adopting to global changing conditions, within an integrated assessment modeling framework. This report presents ANEMI model and its nine individual sectors: climate, carbon cycle, land-use, population, food production, hydrologic cycle, water demand, water quality, and energy-economy. Two versions of the model are developed and presented in the …

Identifying Changes In Climatic Trends And The Fingerprints Of Landuse And Landcover Changes In The High Plains Of The Usa, Denis Mutiibwa

Department of Agricultural and Biological Systems Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Human activities such as conversion of natural ecosystem to croplands and urban-centers, deforestation and afforestation impact biophysical properties of land surface such as albedo, energy balance, and surface roughness. Alterations in these properties affect the heat and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmospheric boundary layer. The objectives of this research were; (i) to quantitatively identify the High plains’ regional climate change in temperatures over the period 1895 to 2006, (ii) detect the signatures of anthropogenic forcing of LULC changes on the regional climate change of the High Plains, and (iii) examine the trends in evolving regional latent heat …

A Look At 20th Century Droughts, Vijay P. Singh, Ashok K. Mishra

2011 Symposium on Data-Driven Approaches to Droughts

Droughts exercise a profound effect on the social and economic fabric of nations. Many nations of the world experienced droughts encompassing the full spectrum of severity, areal extent and duration. The result has been that the economic development was hampered and many countries have not yet recouped fully from the ravages of droughts. The first decade of the 21st century has also witnessed varying degrees of droughts across the globe. Therefore, we ask the following questions: (a) Do droughts affect every part of the world? (b) Are there similarities in major droughts around the world? (c) Are climate change and …

Slides: Smart Fallowing: New Strategies In Ag Forbearance, Bonnie Colby

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Dr. Bonnie Colby, Department of Agriculture & Resource Economics, University of Arizona

34 slides

Materials For Presentation: Water Banks: Voluntary And Flexible Water Supplies For The Colorado River's Uncertain Future [Outline], Robert Wigington

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

4 pages.

"Robert Wigington, The Nature Conservancy"

Fact Sheet: Study Of Long-Term Augmentation Options For The Water Supply Of The Colorado System, Black & Veatch, Ch2m Hill

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

1 page.

"March 2008"

Material submitted by Les Lampe, Colorado River Water Consultants, for "Augmentation Options" program, Session 3: Mapping a New Course, Panel F: Some Policy Options and Solutions.

Colorado River Water Consultants is a project-specific partnership of engineering firms Black & Veatch and CH2MHill.

Agenda: Navigating The Future Of The Colorado River, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center, Western Water Policy Program

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Competition for scarce Colorado River water resources is nothing new, but the conflicts that prompted the seven basin states to negotiate the 1922 Colorado River Compact have grown considerably fiercer and more complex in recent decades. In 2007, responding to the challenges of increasing demand and sustained drought, the seven basin states and a number of other affected interests agreed to a set of interim guidelines for allocating Colorado River water in the event of shortages. This agreement represents an important evolution in the governance of the Colorado River, suggesting that the many interests in the basin can work together …

Uncertainty Estimation Of Extreme Precipitations Under Climate Change: A Non-Parametric Approach, Tarana A. Solaiman

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology at watershed scale incorporates (a) downscaling of global scale climatic variables into local scale hydrologic variables and (b) assessment of future hydrologic extremes. Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM) are designed to simulate time series of future climate responses accounting for human induced green house gas emissions. The present study addresses the following limitations of climate change impact research: (i) limited availability of observed historical information; (ii) limited research on the detection of changes in hydrologic extremes; and (iii) coarse spatio-temporal resolution of AOGCMs for use at regional or local scale. Downscaled output from …

Developing Methods To Assess The Potential Effects Of Global Climate Change On Deer Creek Reservoir Using Water Quality Modeling, Reed Earl Chilton

Theses and Dissertations

To evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on a temperate reservoir, I used a calibrated water quality and hydrodynamic model validated using three years of data (2007-2009) from Deer Creek Reservoir (Utah). I evaluated the changes due to altered air temperatures, inflow rates, and nutrient loads that might occur under Global Climate Change (GCC). I developed methods to study GCC on reservoirs. I produced Average Water Temperature Plots, Stratification Plots, and Total Concentration Plots. Average Water Temperature Plots show the sensitivity of the water temperature to various parameters. Stratification Plots quantify stratification length and strength as well as …

Slides: Environmental Water In Australia, Chris Arnott

Conversation with Water Management Reps from Colorado and Australia: "Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons Learned from Australia" (February 14)

Presenter: Chris Arnott, Managing Director, Alluvium Consulting

30 slides

Green Technology: Think Globally, Act Locally, Arden L. Bement Jr.

PPRI Digital Library

No abstract provided.

The Utility Of Daily Large-Scale Climate Data In The Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Daily Streamflow In California, Edwin P. Maurer, H. G. Hidalgo, T. Das, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan

Civil, Environmental and Sustainable Engineering

Three statistical downscaling methods were applied to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (used as a surrogate for the best possible general circulation model), and the downscaled meteorology was used to drive a hydrologic model over California. The historic record was divided into an “observed” period of 1950–1976 to provide the basis for downscaling, and a “projected” period of 1977–1999 for assessing skill. The downscaling methods included a biascorrection/ spatial downscaling method (BCSD), which relies solely on monthly large scale meteorology and resamples the historical record to obtain daily sequences, a constructed analogues approach (CA), which uses daily large-scale anomalies, and a hybrid method …

Global Warming Advocacy Science: A Cross Examination, Jason S. Johnston

All Faculty Scholarship

Legal scholarship has come to accept as true the various pronouncements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientists who have been active in the movement for greenhouse gas (ghg) emission reductions to combat global warming. The only criticism that legal scholars have had of the story told by this group of activist scientists – what may be called the climate establishment – is that it is too conservative in not paying enough attention to possible catastrophic harm from potentially very high temperature increases. This paper departs from such faith in the climate establishment by comparing the …

Sustainable Portland: Implementation Series 3, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

This report is the third in a series of efforts by students at the Muskie School of Public Service, Community Planning and Development Master’s program, in a core class called “Sustainable Communities.” In this course students seek to understand principles of sustainability and how efforts to implement Sustainability programs can become more successful. The report assembles term papers students completed on particular efforts by municipalities, universities, and other groups to achieve sustainability goals. Students worked on each project in a service learning format with real world clients. They were asked to fashion their papers around lessons learned by other organizations …

Colorado River Water: Mexico's Perspective On The Ongoing Negotiations, Mario López Pérez

US-Mexico Negotiations on Improved Colorado River Management: An Update (February 19)

Presenter: Mario López, Engineering and Technical Standards Manager, National Water Commission of México

53 slides

Slides: Costs And Benefits Of Oil Shale Development, James T. Bartis

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: James T. Bartis, Senior Policy Researcher, Rand Corporation

21 slides

Agenda: The Promise And Peril Of Oil Shale Development, University Of Colorado Boulder. Natural Resources Law Center

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

The largest known oil shale deposits in the world are in the Green River Formation, which covers portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Fully one-half of the world’s oil shale lies within 150 miles of Grand Junction, Colorado, and about 80% of these reserves are on federal land. Estimates of recoverable reserves in the Green River Formation range from 500 billion to 1.53 trillion barrels. At present consumption rates, this is enough oil to satisfy 100% of U.S. demand for well over 100 years.

Development of oil shale could cause significant impacts on the Colorado Plateau. It would provide for …

Slides: The Peril Of Energy Usage, Mike Tupper

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Mike Tupper, Executive Vice President, Composite Technology Development, Inc.

9 slides

Slides: Oil Shale Water Needs, State Water Planning And The Colorado River Compact, Daniel R. Birch

The Promise and Peril of Oil Shale Development (February 5)

Presenter: Daniel R. Birch, Deputy General Manager & Chief Engineer, Colorado River District

17 slides