Engineering Commons^™

Quantifying Impacts Of Climate Change On Headwater Streamflow Regime In Robinson Forest: Insights From 35-Years Of Data Collection., Lauren Brown

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Climate change may shift patterns of streamflow permanence in headwater systems by altering the frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change of surface streamflow, impacting both local ecosystems as well as regional water budgets and availability. While much uncertainty surrounds modeling-based methods to quantify the impacts of climate change on water budgets, long-term hydrologic data collected from headwaters in experimental research forests serve as critical evidence to reduce such uncertainty. The objective of this study is to quantify shifts in frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, and rate of change of streamflow in two headwater catchments with relatively little recent disturbance …

Pan-Arctic Soil Moisture Control On Tundra Carbon Sequestration And Plant Productivity, Donatella Zona, Peter M. Lafleur, Koen Hufkens, Beniamino Gioli, Barbara Bailey, George Burba, Eugénie S. Euskirchen, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Mary Farina, John S. Kimball, Martin Heimann, Mathias Göckede, Martijn Pallandt, Torben R. Christensen, Mikhail Mastepanov, Efrén López-Blanco, Albertus J. Dolman, Roisin Commane, Charles E. Miller, Josh Hashemi, Lars Kutzbach, David Holl, Julia Boike, Christian Wille, Torsten Sachs, Aram Kalhori, Elyn R. Humphreys, Oliver Sonnentag, Gesa Meyer, Gabriel H. Gosselin, Philip Marsh, Walter C. Oechel

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Long-term atmospheric CO₂ concentration records have suggested a reduction in the positive effect of warming on high-latitude carbon uptake since the 1990s. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the reduced net carbon sink of northern ecosystems with increased air temperature, including water stress on vegetation and increased respiration over recent decades. However, the lack of consistent long-term carbon flux and in situ soil moisture data has severely limited our ability to identify the mechanisms responsible for the recent reduced carbon sink strength. In this study, we used a record of nearly 100 site-years of eddy covariance …

Joint Failure Probability Of Dams Based On Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis, Matthew G. Montgomery

Masters Theses

Probabilistic risk methods are becoming increasingly accepted as a means of carrying out risk-informed decision making regarding the design and operation of structures such as dams. Probabilistic risk calculations require the quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties not investigated through deterministic methodologies. In this hydrological study, a stochastic sampling methodology is employed to investigate the joint failure probability of three dams in adjacent, similarly sized watersheds within the same Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 6 basin. A Probabilistic Flood Hazard Analysis (PFHA) framework is used to simulate the hydrologic loading of a wide range of extreme precipitation events across the combined …

Quo Vadis Lakes Azuei And Enriquillo: A Future Outlook For Two Of The Caribbean Basin's Largest Lakes, Mahrokh Moknatian, Michael Piasecki

Publications and Research

Lakes Azuei (LA) and Enriquillo (LE) on Hispaniola Island started expanding in 2005 and continued to do so until 2016. After inundating large swaths of arable land, submerging a small community, and threatening to swallow a significant trade route between the Dominican Republic and Haiti; worries persisted at how far this seemingly unstoppable expansion would go. The paper outlines the approach to a look forward to answer this question vis-à-vis climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses numerical representations of the two lakes, and it examines how the lakes might evolve, deploying three …

Impact Of Regional Climate Changes On Changes In River Water Content In Uzbekistan, A.T. Salokhiddinov, P.A. Khakimova, R.V. Toryanniova, O.A. Ashirova, A.G. Gofurov

Irrigation and Melioration

The paper presents the research results on the analysis of the climate change impacts on the potential of water resources in Central Asia. We analyzed the materials of an extensive database of monitoring data from numerous gauge stations on different river basins and satellite data information. A quantitative assessment of the transformation of river hydrographs, the growth of flow variability in the Republic of Uzbekistan's major rivers, in connection with climate change, was performed. The specific features of the impact of climate changes on changes in the water content of rivers in Uzbekistan in large and small river basins are …

Assessment Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Hydrological Processes In The Chirchik River Basin, Kh.Sh. Gafforov, Sh.D. Sh.D.Tursunboev

Irrigation and Melioration

The importance of assessing past and future climate differences plays an important role in future planning in relation to climate change. This situation requires urgent and concerted action in several areas: technology, infrastructure, politics, economics, and the environment. The article evaluates the impact of changes in precipitation intensity on the water level in the global circulation model (GCM) RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. This study is a useful reference for improving water resource management and ensuring the sustainability of agricultural products in the future, as well as for improving operational water management and agricultural …

The Impact Of Precipitation On The Groundwater Of Coal Waste Dump, Tomasz Suponik, Dawid Franke, Robert Frączek, Katarzyna Nowińska, Piotr Pierzyna, Zenon Różański, Paweł Wrona

Journal of Sustainable Mining

The aim of the study was to assess the effect of climate change, mainly higher and lower precipitation, on the intensity of the impact of a coal waste dump on groundwater. The analysis used meteorological data for the Katowice region in 2002-2020 as well as data on the height of the groundwater table in the vicinity of the coal waste dump, and data on physicochemical parameters and chemical composition of groundwater in 2004-2020. Based on the analyses, it was found that the periods of drought in the Silesian Voivodeship, located in the south of Poland, occurred mainly in spring, while …

Empirical Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture In Samarkand Region, Sh.B. Babakholov

Irrigation and Melioration

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate factors like other endogenous factors, and the expected climate change projections may have a negative impact on the efficiency and income of agricultural producers. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors (average air temperature and precipitation) on the technical efficiency of cotton growing farmers as its determinants in Samarkand region. Empirical analyzes were performed on the cases of 1141 cotton-growing farms using panel-based Time-Invariant Inefficiency model. According to the results of the analysis, cotton farms in the region have an average technical efficiency of 76%, which in …

Economic Assesment Of The Impact Of Climate Factors On Wheat Yield In Samarkand Region, Sh.B. Babakholov

Irrigation and Melioration

Agricultural production is highly vulnerable to climate shocks and predicted climate consequences may pose severe challenges to the resilience of Uzbek agricultural system, especially in terms of food security and income stability of rural producers. In this context, present study proposed to assess the impact of climate factors, such particular changes in mean temperature and rainfalls on total output of wheat-cultivating farmers in Samarkand region. By considering irrigation source and heterogeneous geography of the region, farmers engaged in wheat production were analyzed in two: upstream and downstream zones using Fixed effect panel approach. The empirical findings of study revealed that, …

Determination And Assessment Of The Spatio-Temporal Changing Dynamics In The Groundwater Level And Mineralization In Irrigated Areas Under Climate Change (As An Example Of Syrdarya Province), S. Khasanov, S. Adilov, R. Kulmatov

Irrigation and Melioration

In the irrigated lands of the Aral Sea Basin, salinization processes are taking place as a result of rising groundwater levels and increasing its mineralization due to the unsustainable use of water and land resources. This, in turn, leads to the withdrawing of arable land and a decrease in crop yields. This is especially the case in the irrigated areas of the lower reaches of the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers, located in Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. This research was aimed to learn and evaluate the long-term changing behavior of groundwater level and mineralization in the irrigated areas of the …

Climate Change Impacts The Subsurface Transport Of Atrazine And Estrone Originating From Agricultural Production Activities, Renys Enrique Barrios, Simin Akbariyeh, Chuyang Liu, Khalid Muzamil Gani, Margarita T. Kovalchuk, Xu Li, Yusong Li, Daniel D. Snow, Zhenghong Tang, John Gates, Shannon L. Bartelt-Hunt

Nebraska Water Center: Faculty Publications

Climate change will impact soil properties such as soil moisture, organic carbon and temperature and changes in these properties will influence the sorption, biodegradation and leaching of trace organic contaminants to groundwater. In this study, we conducted a modeling case study to evaluate atrazine and estrone transport in the subsurface under current and future climate conditions at a field site in central Nebraska. According to the modeling results, in the future, enhanced evapotranspiration and increased average air temperature may cause drier soil conditions, which consequently reduces the biodegradation of atrazine and estrone in the water phase. On the other hand, …

Variance Decomposition Of Forecasted Water Budget And Sediment Processes Under Changing Climate In Fluvial And Fluviokarst Systems, Nabil Al Aamery

Theses and Dissertations--Civil Engineering

Variance decomposition is the partitioning of different factors affecting the variance structure of a response variable. The present research focuses on future streamflow and sediment transport processes projections as the response variables. The authors propose using numerous climate factors and hydrological modeling factors that can cause any response variable to vary from historic to future conditions in any given watershed system. The climate modeling factors include global climate model, downscaling method, emission scenario, project phase, bias correction. The hydrological modeling factor includes hydrological model parametrization, and meteorological variable inclusion in the analysis. This research uses a wide spectrum of data, …

Assessing The Impacts Of Super Storm Flooding In The Transportation Infrastructure – Case Study: San Antonio, Texas, Marcio Giacomoni, Francisco Olivera, Cesar Do Lago

Data

Corresponding data set for Tran-SET Project No. 18HSTSA02. Abstract of the final report is stated below for reference:

"Flooding are likely to increase worldwide due to climate change. Large storms, referred here as superstorms, defined as events with return period equal or larger than 100 years, can lead to an increase of property damages and loss of life. The ability to predict and plan for the impacts of superstorms on transportation infrastructure is key to mitigate future damages and losses. This study analyzed 51 combinations of future projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which were used …

Assessing The Impacts Of Super Storm Flooding In The Transportation Infrastructure – Case Study: San Antonio, Texas, Marcio Giacomoni, Francisco Olivera, Cesar Do Lago

Publications

Flooding are likely to increase worldwide due to climate change. Large storms, referred here as superstorms, defined as events with return period equal or larger than 100 years, can lead to an increase of property damages and loss of life. The ability to predict and plan for the impacts of superstorms on transportation infrastructure is key to mitigate future damages and losses. This study analyzed 51 combinations of future projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which were used to calculate future 1st and 3rd quartiles, median, minimum and maximum intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF). A HEC-HMS and GSSHA …

Development Of Threshold Levels And A Climate-Sensitivity Model Of The Hydrological Regime Of The High-Altitude Catchment Of The Western Himalayas, Pakistan, Muhammad Saifullah, Shiyin Liu, Adnan Ahmad Tahir, Muhammad Zaman, Sajjad Ahmad, Muhammad Adnan, Dianyu Chen, Muhammad Ashraf, Asif Mehmood

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Water shortages in Pakistan are among the most severe in the world, and its water resources are decreasing significantly due to the prevailing hydro-meteorological conditions. We assessed variations in meteorological and hydrological variables using innovative trend analysis (ITA) and traditional trend analysis methods at a practical significance level, which is also of practical interest. We developed threshold levels of hydrological variables and developed a non-parametric climate-sensitivity model of the high-altitude catchment of the western Himalayas. The runoff of Zone I decreased, while the temperature increased and the precipitation increased significantly. In Zone II, the runoff and temperature increased but the …

Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in Western North America (WNA) can cause significant socioeconomic problems and threaten existing infrastructure. In this study we analyze the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes and assess the role of internal variability over WNA, which collectively drain an area of about 1 million km². We used gridded observations and downscaled precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a large ensemble of CanESM2 model simulations (CanESM2-LE; 50 members) for this analysis. Spatial …

Changes In Snow Phenology From 1979 To 2016 Over The Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia, Tao Yang, Qian Li, Sajjad Ahmad, Hongfei Zhou, Lanhai Li

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Snowmelt from the Tianshan Mountains (TS) is a major contributor to the water resources of the Central Asian region. Thus, changes in snow phenology over the TS have significant implications for regional water supplies and ecosystem services. However, the characteristics of changes in snow phenology and their influences on the climate are poorly understood throughout the entire TS due to the lack of in situ observations, limitations of optical remote sensing due to clouds, and decentralized political landscapes. Using passive microwave remote sensing snow data from 1979 to 2016 across the TS, this study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of snow …

Predicting Effects Of Climate Change And Sea Level Rise On Hydrologic Processes In A Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watershed, Rui Li

Civil & Environmental Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation assessed impacts of Climate Change (CC) and Sea Level Rise (SLR) on coastal hydrologic processes using the Lynnhaven River watershed as a test bed. The watershed is part of Chesapeake Bay Watershed and hydraulically connected with mid-Atlantic Ocean. Six CC scenarios were considered in terms of eight Regional Climate Models’ predictions for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission assumptions, namely, B1, A1B, and A2, for two future periods, namely 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2099. The ensemble means of downscaling results from four methods were used to represent the future climates. On the other hand, …

A Detailed Hydrodynamic Study To Help Community Based Resiliency Planning Under Extreme Climatic And Weather Events, Md. Golam Rabbani Fahad

Theses and Dissertations

The State of New Jersey is particularly vulnerable to extreme weather and climatic events. This study concentrates on spatial and temporal vulnerability of these events using climate and hydrodynamic modelling. The first chapter focuses on historical climatic trend of temperature and precipitation as well as the future scenarios using 10 bias corrected climate model output considering high end emission scenario derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In the second chapter a coastal hydrodynamic model called ADCIRC-2DDI was implemented to assess the impact of hurricanes in the Western North Atlantic (WNAT) model domain. The efficiency of the model …

Modelling Of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change, Ayushi Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycle in Canada. In this study, future runoff projections made by 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs into a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model: CaMa-Flood to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) time-periods. Future changes in flood-hazard as a consequence of changes in flooding frequencies of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events, and changes in the month of occurrence of extreme flows are analyzed. Changes in flood risk at Canada’s 100 most populous cities and …

Influence Of Internal Variability On Population Exposure To Hydroclimatic Changes, Justin S. Mankin, Daniel Viviroli, Mesfin Mekonnen, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Radley M. Horton, Jason E. Smerdon, Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Daugherty Water for Food Global Institute: Faculty Publications

Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people’s exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and ‘irreducible’ uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …

Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles, A. Shchiptsova, D. Kovalevsky, E. Rovenskaya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To date, no model building process can guarantee full representation of the complex climate-economic processes and narrow down the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. Multiple highly detailed models are developed by individual research groups to capture various known aspects of the climate processes. Normally, these models represent only a part of the climate-society system due to its complexity. On the other hand, a number of the simplified integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been put forward in the attempt to introduce the full causal loop between accumulated emissions, economy and climate, and study associated uncertainty. We present a simplified system …

Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …

Informing Adaptive Strategies For The Colorado Basin, David Groves, Robert Lempert, Jordan Fischbach, Evan Bloom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado River is the single most important source of water in the southwestern United States, providing water and power for nearly 40 million people and water to irrigate more than five million acres of farmland across seven states and for 22 Native American tribes. A vast physical and institutional infrastructure exists to provide water, as well as hydropower, recreational opportunities, environmental services, and other benefits to all these users. However, increasing demand, a decade of drought, and expectations of a significantly changing future climate have put the system under significant and deeply uncertain stress. This paper employs and extends …

Water Resource Management With The Management Software Manuela, Monika Von Haaren

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The impact of climate change with increasing droughts will lead to an increase of water consumption in agriculture. Even in Germany, agricultural land is already irrigated intensively to secure harvests at a higher level. The demand for additional irrigation will lead to conflicts between agriculture, water management and nature conservation. This paper shows a new way for the evaluation of water use in agricultural farming. With the developed method stakeholder can assess the water consumption for irrigation in agriculture, which is transferable, regionally applicable and comparable. The water-module is available as a new plug-in in the management software MANUELA and …

Modelling Adaptive Behaviour In Spatial Agent-­Based Models: Coastal Cities And Climate Change, Tatiana Filatova, Erik Horstman, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher, Ju-­Sung Lee, Johan De Waard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A major part of world population lives in coastal and delta areas threatened by adverse consequences of climate change (increasing probabilities or severity of floods and hurricanes). It might lead to a forced displacement of up to 187 million people in coastal zones. Still, exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas rapidly escalate due to the clustering of population and growth of property values in flood-­prone areas. Land markets driven by individual location preferences are crucial in the formation of spatial patterns of activities and the economic value they receive. Under the conditions of uncertainty where probabilistic disasters and rich amenities …

Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers, policy makers and scientists are well aware of this problem: obtaining sound cost information for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture or ecosystem service provision by agriculture is burdensome. In most cases, data sets are developed for a specific region with a given set of management variants for a baseline period. Adapting such information to another region or adjusting costs to expected future price scenarios requires additional efforts and frequently done an ad-hoc and case by case. A new tool is presented that can be used to identify and analyze the entangled effects of future climate and …

Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Several analysis platforms have been developed worldwide to help effectively control and response to these impacts from different angles, including water resources management, energy production and consumption management, air pollution control, or other natural resources management. To contribute to this goal, Griffith University in Australia has developed Autoflow^©, a smart application for water demand analysis and carbon emission monitoring and prediction. Various advanced mathematical models have been …

Hydrological Water Resources Assessment Of Cega-Eresma-Adaja Watershed System Using Swat Model, David A. Rivas, Angel De Miguel, Bárbara Willarts

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the hydrological assessment of water bodies, modeling is a key fact in water management strategies of watersheds and serves as a tool for decision making considering environmental issues as the core of sustainable development in the region. In this direction, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess the water availability related with agricultural management in the watersheds of the tributary rivers Cega, Eresma and Adaja of Duero’s River in Spain both in the current and future climate change scenarios. To define the HRUs, land use maps from remote-sensing processes were used, extracting the agricultural uses …