Engineering Commons^™

Instrumental Intensity Scales For Geohazards, Steven Kramer, Sarah B. Upsall

Geohazards

The relationship between ground motion characteristics and geohazard-related earthquake damage was investigated for slope instability, lateral spreading, settlement, and buried pipeline damage, and the results used to develop two instrumental intensity scales. The scales are based on three velocity-related ground motion parameters that reflect the amplitude, frequency content, and duration of a ground motion. The scales provide intensity values that are strongly correlated to potential damage – one scale expresses intensity on a 0-10 scale and the other in terms of an apparent earthquake magnitude. The former is expected to be particularly useful for rapid identification of potential damaged areas …

Expected Earthquake Losses To Buildings In Istanbul And Implications For The Performance Of The Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, E. Durukal, M. Erdik, K. Sesetyan

Geohazards

The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large earthquake. This paper reports on the expected building losses in the city in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discussed the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country.

Dealing With Tsunami Risk - A Case Study For Thailand, Kjell Karlsrud, Farrokh Nadim, Hilmar Bungum, Carl B. Harbitz

Geohazards

The December 26 2004 tsunami event devastated large areas along the coastlines of Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and India, and even some parts of the east African coastline. It is a great challenge to the authorities in the countries affected by the tsunami to deal with the future risk of tsunami events and how to rehabilitate the devastated areas under consideration of that risk. On initiative from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (NGI), a project has been initiated to help develop a rehabilitation strategy in Thailand, but it is also intended as serve as an example project for other countries …

Disasters And Decision Processes, Carsten Felgentreff

Geohazards

One of the most important topics in hazard and disaster related research is the effective reduction of vulnerability. Despite the fact that our knowledge about several physical and human dimensions of disasters has grown rapidly in recent decades, there is ample evidence that casualties and damages due to natural disasters have grown even faster. Apparently, there is no such formula like ‘more data = better knowledge = less casualties and damages’.

Purpose of this paper is the identification of some potential reasons for this obvious dilemma. After briefly addressing selected social science concepts of hazards, disasters, and risks, it is …

Back Analysis Of The Lower San Fernando Dam Slide Using A Multi-Block Model, C. A. Stamatopoulos, P. Petridis

Geohazards

A multi-block sliding system model has been developed to simulate the displacement of sliding geo-masses. This model is a useful tool, especially when displacements are very large and computer codes based on the Finite Element Method cannot be applied. The paper investigates the ability of the model to predict the response of the well-documented Lower San Fernando Dam slide. The predicted movement, and deformation agreed reasonably well with that of the upper part of the slide. Yet, the lower part of the slide slid more that the model prediction. The multi-block model was applied a second time. This 2-slide approach …

Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation For Eskisehir, Turkey, M. S. Yucemen, N. Y. Ozturk, A. Deniz

Geohazards

Stochastic methods are utilized for the assessment of seismic hazard for the Eskisehir region. A comprehensive earthquake catalog, in which earthquakes in different scales are converted to a common scale, is compiled. Seismic source zones near the region with revised boundaries and various attenuation relationships are employed. Uncertainties related to the seismicity parameters and different assumptions are taken into consideration by using the logic tree procedure. Seismic hazard maps in terms of peak ground acceleration and MSK intensity, corresponding to a return period of 475 years are developed for Eskisehir. At the end of the study, the expected earthquake damage …

Remote Sensing Technologies For Monitoring Climate Change Impacts On Glacier- And Permafrost-Related Hazards, Andreas Kääb, C. Huggel, L. Fischer

Geohazards

Glacier- and permafrost-related hazards represent a continuous threat to human lives and infrastructure in high mountain regions. Because the surface and subsurface ice involved is generally close to melting conditions, glacier and permafrost hazards are particularly sensitive to climate changes. The present shift of cryospheric hazard zones due to atmospheric warming, process interactions and chain reactions, and the potential far reach of glacier disasters make it necessary to apply modern remote sensing techniques for the assessment of glacier and permafrost hazards in high mountains. In this contribution we provide an overview of different hazard types and how air- and space-borne …

A First-Order Second-Moment Framework For Probabilistic Estimation Of Vulnerability To Landslides, Marco Uzielli, S. Duzgun, B. V. Vangelsten

Geohazards

The object of the present paper, which synthesises a broader research effort by ICG (2006a), is the development of a probabilistic framework for the quantitative estimation of the vulnerability of the built environment to landslides. The method draws inspiration from an existing 3-dimensional qualitative framework proposed earlier by ICG (2005). As vulnerability is directly included in quantitative risk analysis (QRA), it would be beneficial to convert the conceptual framework to a quantitative perspective. It should be recognised that, in real investigations, the input parameters and the models used in vulnerability assessment are necessarily vague and imprecise, and are subjective to …

Instability In Soft Sensitive Clays, V. Thakur, G. Grimstad, S. Nordal

Geohazards

Soft sensitive clays like quick clays are well known in Scandinavia and in some regions in Canada. The salt pore water of these marine clays has been leached out since last glaciations and left a brittle mineral structure. Slides in quick clays can be extremely disastrous, as in Verdal, Norway in 1893 or Rissa in 1978. The slides may be initiated by local overloading, river erosion or similar and can escalate in size in a retrogressive manner in which large volumes of clay finally may liquefy. Norwegian quick clay has a very low permeability and hence pore water pressure becomes …

An Introduced Methodology For Estimating Landslide Hazard For Seismic Andrainfall Induced Landslides In A Geographical Information System Environment , M. D. Ferentinou, M. Sakellariou, V. Matziaris, S. Charalambous

Geohazards

The demand for estimating landslide hazard has evolved during the last decade. Landslides are characterised among the most severe natural hazards, which can cause casualties, fatalities, harm or detriment in natural and man-made environment.

In the first part of this paper the results of the research conducted on slope deformation due to seismic loading are presented. According to field observations deformation and displacement of natural and man-made slopes in strong earthquakes are common phenomena, even though they are associated to moderate magnitude seismic events. These permanent displacements are due to seismic loading, and are produced because the material, through which …

On Tsunami Risk Assessment For The West Coast Of Thailand, Farrokh Nadim, Thomas Glade

Geohazards

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientists and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami risk evaluation and presents the results of a tsunami risk mitigation study for the west coast of Thailand. It is argued that a scenario-based approach is particularly well suited for evaluation of the risk posed by tsunamis. The approach consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by these events, estimating the possible range of casualties for …

The Importance Of Laboratory Experiments In Landslide Investigation, Barbara Schneider-Muntau, D. Renk, T. Marcher, Wolfgang Fellin

Geohazards

This study focuses on a better understanding of mass movements and on the influences of different boundary conditions on velocities of creeping slopes. A well monitored example of a slowly creeping landslide is the mass movement Hochmais - Atemkopf, situated in the Kaunertal, Tyrol, Austria (Fig. 1). The long term monitoring program for more than 40 years of this landslide gives a good impression of its time dependent behaviour. A large amount of additional data, as geological mapping, boreholes, geophysical investigation and so on provides a funded base for the model’s geometry. The most influencing factor for finite element …

Landslide Hazard In El Salvador, Carlos Eduardo Rodriguez, A. T. Torres, E. A. León

Geohazards

The destructive seismic events of January 13 (ML: 7.6) and February 13 (ML: 6.1) 2001 in El Salvador, with origin in the subduction area and the volcanic chain, respectively, provide an ideal scenario to analyse the factors that define the landslide hazard in this country. In this paper we analysed the events in terms of strong-motion and precedent climatic condition and their relation with the landslides induced; establishing a great opportunity to compare some hazard assessment methods as those proposed by Mora and Vahrson (1994) and Rodríguez (2001) which define the hazard in terms of the interaction between triggering agents …

Hazards, Climate Change And Extreme Weather Events, Christian Jaedicke, Kalle Kronholm, Anders Solheim, Ketil Isaksen, Dagrun Vikhamar, Kari Sletten, Lars Harald Blikra, Asgeir Sorteberg, Asbjørn Aaheim

Geohazards

Geohazards are events related to geological features and processes that cause loss of life and severe damage to property and the natural and built environment. The most common and destructive geohazards in Norway are snow avalanches, clay-, debris- and rock slides, and floods, which together caused more than 2000 deaths during the last 150 years. Statistically, about 10 large slides and avalanches are expected to occur in Norway the next 50-100 years, each with possibly 20-100 deaths, unless preventive planning and actions are made. In addition to the loss of lives, geohazards pose a large impact on infrastructure and the …

Landslide Hazard Assessment At “Sakhalin-2” Main Pipeline Project, S. I. Matsiy, A. P. Sheglov, D. V. Pleshakov

Geohazards

In the given article, 2 various approaches to a landslide hazard assessment are considered. Landslide hazard means probability of a slope failure. The calculations have been carried out using a landslide hazardous section of Sakhalin-2 main pipeline route as an example.

Simulation Of Socio-Economic Impacts Due To Seismic Damage Of Tehran Water Network, Reza Rasti, Farshad Vazinram

Geohazards

In recent years, the massive losses caused due to big earthquakes in urban areas. These cause significant casualties and losses. The economic losses exceed several billions dollars per year. The loss may be categorized in two types of direct and indirect loss. Direct economic losses occur just during the earthquakes or immediately after them. Indirect losses are resulted from direct losses. These losses are obtained in Tehran due to damage of Water Network. A scenario earthquake that would severely damage the city is assumed. The acceleration and velocities are determined in Tehran GIS map. The vulnerability coefficient for pipe via …

Predicting Rainfall-Induced Movements Of Slides In Stiff Clays, Michele Calvello, Leonardo Cascini

Geohazards

A physically-based numerical method is presented for displacements hazard analyses, at large-scale, in the case of landslides characterized by movements along pre-existing slip surfaces induced by rainfall-triggered pore pressure fluctuations. The method comprises a transient seepage finite element analysis and a kinematic model. With reference to the latter, the rates of displacement are assumed to be of the viscous type and are related to the factors of safety along the slip surface computed performing time-dependent limit equilibrium analyses. Monitoring data from an active slide in Central Italy are then used both for calibrating the models, by means of an inverse …

A Capacity Spectrum Method For Seismic Risk Assessment, Sergio Molina, Conrad D. Lindholm

Geohazards

Although earthquakes and the associated damage occur in a fundamentally deterministic way, the processes are so complex that our prediction scenarios are basically uncertain approximations. In the first attempts to model hazard and risk, point estimates based on empirical data were used, however, for quite some time the more advanced seismic hazard modelling has been based on models in which the variability/uncertainty of the input parameters are consistently carried through the computations so that the results are probabilistically combined to give a median value and confidence levels that reflect on the input parameter uncertainty. For seismic damage scenarios the first …

Earthquake-Induced Landslides In Colombia, Carlos Eduardo Rodriguez

Geohazards

Landslides due to earthquakes in Colombia have been historically reported since 1530 when ground cracking, soil movements and liquefaction events were induced by an earthquake which magnitude has not been defined. Since then more than thirty earthquakes have been identified to have produced landslides in the country, in some cases consequences related to landslides have been more significant than those due to direct effects of the earthquake itself.

The author has compiled a database of landslides induced by earthquakes in Colombia from which relationships between earthquake magnitude and landslide characteristics have been explored. It has been found that residual and …

Influence Of Degrading Permafrost On Landsliding Processes: Little Salmon Lake, Yukon Territory, Canada, R. Lyle, D. Jean Hutchinson

Geohazards

A landslide inventory was carried out for the Little Salmon Lake area, Yukon Territory, Canada, in response to observations of several new landslides in the area, suspected to be the result of degrading permafrost. The largest of these landslides, the Magundy River bi-modal flow-slide, has progressed over the last decade until it now involves over 1x106 m3 of material. The inventory is based on terrain mapping and field work, and includes multiple landslide types. The field work provided the opportunity to examine the slides, ground truth the map, and to examine the progression of the landslide, as well as the …

The Hazard Assessment In A Terraced Landscape: Preliminary Result Of The Liguria (Italy) Case Study In The Interreg Iii Alpter Project, G. Brancucci, G. Paliaga

Geohazards

In steep areas the lack of terrain suitable to farming has induced man to modify the slopes with terraces. In the ligurian territory (northern Italy) above the twenty per cent of the total surface area have been changed by means of terraces. Terraces may be regarded as a human interference with the geomorphic system, which drives the evolution of the terrestrial surface. This interference actually causes the increase of the hazard particularly in those areas where the morphology hardly constrains the urbanisation. The preliminary results here presented are part of the hazard assessment task of the EU Interreg III Alpter …

Comparison Of Risk Management Policies In Oecd Countries, Reza Lahidji

Geohazards

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development started in 2003 a series of country studies and reviews aimed at assisting its Member countries in evaluating the effectiveness of their risk management systems, notably in terms of their ability to contend with large-scale risks of the future, and at offering them guidance in making the requisite improvements. The project, entitled the OECD Futures Project on Risk Management Policies, focuses on the consistency of risk management policies and on their ability to deal with the challenges, present and future, created by the evolution of the risk landscape.

The Project gathers eight Member …

Cost Evaluation For Traffic And Transport Infrastructure Projects Taking Account Of Project Risks, Rudolf Poettler, H. F. Schweiger

Geohazards

The realisation of large transport infrastructure projects is influenced by a wide range of different factors. The general expectation that a project should be carried out under defined boundary conditions within the planned period and on budget requires a high level of design, planning and controlling. This paper discusses standardised comprehensible fundamental rules and guidelines for defining project costs and project budgets of infrastructure projects taking into account risk assessment and risk management. Adhering to these guidelines and rules contributes to ensure that the structure can be built in the required quality, on schedule and on budget, as well as …

Integrating Physical Accessibility Of Emergency Establishments Into Earthquake Risk Assessment, Kivanc Ertugay, Sebnem Duzgun

Geohazards

Human being has always been in a continual struggle with disasters. They are mostly sudden and unexpected and cause irreversible damages to human life and property. Disasters are facts of life, but it is always possible to decrease the effects of disasters by preparedness. In disaster case, accessibility is one of the most vital and important components of disaster preparedness and mean the difference between loosing a life or saving a life. That is why emergency accessibility, regardless if it is measured in time, distance, population or any other cost, is the most important variable that decision makers must consider …

Integrated Natural Disaster Risk Assessment: The Socio-Economic Dimension Of Earthquake Risk In The Urban Area, Sibel Kalaycioglu, Helga Rittersberger-Tilic, Kezban Celik, Fatime Günes

Geohazards

Understanding and formulation of risk of a natural disaster requires consideration of every aspect of risk, which can be handled by development of integrated approaches. In such integrated approaches, several discipline’s views are incorporated into risk assessment to see the whole picture. Hence, the risk which can be experienced before and / or after a natural disaster should be a common concern for both natural and social disciplines and should be handled through a interdisciplinary approach. A field research was conducted with 1500 households, selected through stratified random sampling, using the database obtained from the Eskisehir Greater Metropolitan Municipality. Interviews …

Dealing With Uncertainty In Engineering Design For Large-Scale Gravel Soil Slopes In The Three Gorges Reservoir Zone, Wilson H. Tang, L. M. Zhang, Y. R. Zheng

Geohazards

The objective of this paper is to first present a general formulation for analysis of uncertainties and evaluation of risks associated with large-scale slopes. The risks may be expressed in terms of the reliability of the system and the consequence. Preliminary studies regarding the mitigation of landslides in the Three-Gorge reservoir zone (TGRZ) of the Yangtze River is presented next. At the normal water level of 175 m, the Three-Gorge reservoir stretches for 665 km along the Yangtze River and extends into many tributaries. Some 684 colluvial deposits, ancient slides and hanging rock blocks, which are larger than 100,000 m3 …

Urban Earthquake Risk, Mustafa Erdik

Geohazards

The impact of earthquakes in urban areas is a complex problem compounded by multi-hazard and consequential risk issues, enormous inventory of vulnerable physical elements and the attendant socio-economic problems. A review of our state-of-knowledge and applications on the assessment of urban earthquake risk is provided. Rational urban risk predictions and expected losses from major earthquakes in the future serve the basis and also provide strong reasons for the proactive risk mitigation activities.

Dam Risk Analysis Using Bayesian Networks, Marc Smith

Geohazards

The risks related to existing hydraulic structures have been analyzed using bayesian networks. The proposed multidisciplinary approach allowed the comparison, according to the probability of failure being used as a common denominator, of the geotechnical, hydrological and structural risks. The factors contributing the most to the overall risk have been identified as well as the interventions to be realized in priority. The presented concepts consider dam risk in a more global and holistic way.

Mapping Expert Uncertainties Or Confidence Level In Mining Risk Prevention Plans, M. Cauvin, T. Verdel, R. Salmon, C. Didier

Geohazards

Mining Risk Prevention Plans have been developed in France in order to deal with “Post-Mining” issues in a rapid and operational way. This inevitably implies that the final result of those risk analyses might contain a significant part of uncertainty. The study presented herein introduces a framework and some tools that allow experts to express the confidence they have in their evaluation and raise the main difficulties they face in their daily work.

Risk Assessment Due To Debris Flows In Paz De Río-Colombia, Carlos Eduardo Rodriguez, O. I. Chaparro, G. Flechas

Geohazards

Paz de Río is an important economic area of Colombia where iron mines produce most of the mineral for the steel production in the country. Along the La Chapa creek some debris flows have occurred since 1963 producing economic losses and human deaths at Santa Teresa village. Economical losses are related to disruption of the main access to La Chapa iron mine facilities, and flooding of Paz de Río due to damming of Chicamocha River, the main drainage system of the region, which is blocked by debris flows.

The local authority for Natural Disaster Management (CREPAD) jointly with the Universidad …