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Articles 1 - 30 of 66
Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Modeling Radiation Exposure On Flight Missions To Analyze Aircrew Risk, Camila V. Quintero Hilsaca
Modeling Radiation Exposure On Flight Missions To Analyze Aircrew Risk, Camila V. Quintero Hilsaca
Theses and Dissertations
GCR and SPE comprise the majority of the ionizing radiation experienced in the upper atmosphere within flight-altitude environments. Although previous studies have analyzed radiation doses from single sources on civilian flight operations, there is a lack of research focused on dose received by military personnel during flight from both sources simultaneously. In-flight radiation environments are modeled through the MCNP6 for two separate aircraft, an Air Force A-10 and a Boeing 737. Particle fluence values for galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events for four separate flight paths are determined using the CARI-7A software and the SIRE2 toolkit, respectively. MCNP6 code …
Sea Level Rise Impacts On Wastewater Treatment Plants And Their Social Vulnerability Differences, David S. P. Robinson
Sea Level Rise Impacts On Wastewater Treatment Plants And Their Social Vulnerability Differences, David S. P. Robinson
Theses and Dissertations
Many of the United States’ major cities that have a high population are located along the coast. The number of people residing in low elevation coastal areas, be-low 10 meters, is increasing. Coastal areas may be affected by various short- and long-term climate hazards, such as sea level rise (SLR). Climate change induced SLR will threaten residents and infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas. A household’s capacity to respond to hazards is highly dependent on its socio-demographic situation which determines its social vulnerability. Wastewater treatment facilities area particularly critical piece of infrastructure often located in low-lying areas due to gravity fed …
Applications Of Fragile Curves To Water Distribution Networks, Danielle M. Van Lanen
Applications Of Fragile Curves To Water Distribution Networks, Danielle M. Van Lanen
Theses and Dissertations
Water distribution networks are of critical importance to provide uninterrupted services to a city. Not only do they provide potable drinking water to customers they also are used for fire services and other emergency support functions. By the year 2039, the United States’ drinking water investment gap is estimated to grow to $136 billion dollars. As the gap between available funding and funding required, being able to prioritize assets for investments is critical. Unfortunately, water distribution networks are typically managed reactively rather than proactively. This paper showcases a methodology for a proactive approach to asset management through the use of …
Fragility Of The Florida Panhandle's Electrical Transmission Grid To Hurricanes, Zachary D. Schumann
Fragility Of The Florida Panhandle's Electrical Transmission Grid To Hurricanes, Zachary D. Schumann
Theses and Dissertations
The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid’s resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build …
Examining Fuel Service System Failures Of The Usaf R11 Using Survival Analysis, Roed M.S. Mejia
Examining Fuel Service System Failures Of The Usaf R11 Using Survival Analysis, Roed M.S. Mejia
Theses and Dissertations
Recent events show that fuel supply is a large contributor to the success or failure of a military operation in response to a contingency. Any future near-peer conflict will stress the supply chain and require fully operational vehicles to be ready for the primary mission sets they support. In the United States Air Force (USAF), the readiness of fuel distribution trucks is crucial to meeting those mission sets in global operations. Utilizing non-parametric and semi-parametric survival models, which do not assume specific probability distributions, this study analyzes maintenance data for R-11 trucks that refuel aircraft.
Evaluating A Statistical-Based Assessment Tool For Stratifying Risk Among U.S. Air Force Organizations, Tiffany A. Low
Evaluating A Statistical-Based Assessment Tool For Stratifying Risk Among U.S. Air Force Organizations, Tiffany A. Low
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force Inspection System is a proponent of utilizing a risk-based sampling strategy (RBSS) for conducting inspections from major command levels down to the unit level. The strategy identifies areas deemed most important or risky by commanders and prioritizes them accordingly for an independent assessment by the Inspector General. While Air Force regulation specifies the need to use a RBSS for inspection, the implementation process is delegated to individual commands and, subsequently, wings. The 23rd Wing, the sponsor for this research, directed us to analyze a RBSS tool highlighted as an example from which to adopt for those units …
Understanding Logistics Airmen’S Risk Information Seeking And Processing During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Extended Prism Framework, Christopher T. Price
Understanding Logistics Airmen’S Risk Information Seeking And Processing During The Covid-19 Pandemic: The Role Of Organizational Meetings In An Extended Prism Framework, Christopher T. Price
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this survey-based research was to understand how organizational workplace meetings surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic impacted logistics Airmen across the United States Air Force and subsequently played a role into their risk seeking behavior on social media. Specifically, this research tested an expanded Planned Information Risk Seeking Model with organizational meetings as an antecedent to determine if current meetings influenced an Airman's perceived behavioral control, attitude toward seeking, subjective norms, knowledge sufficiency an intentions to seek information regarding COVID-19.
Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard
Indicators Of Political Instability In The Presence Of Rapid Urban And Youth Population Growth, Douglas W. Hubbard
Theses and Dissertations
Large and rapidly growing cities and other urban agglomerations have the potential to become incubators of political instability. This is especially true of rapidly growing cities which are located in countries that are also experiencing high rates of growth in their youth population. Rapid growth rates put stress on urban infrastructure and other institutions, and these stresses can cause major problems for both city and national governments. Knowing when these cities and countries may be trending toward their tipping points regarding political instability will help governments and international organizations develop and implement effective strategies to mitigate the risk of instability.
Requirements Analysis And Architecture For An Operational Study Of Fatigue In Usaf Mobility Aircrew, Jonathan F. Mecham
Requirements Analysis And Architecture For An Operational Study Of Fatigue In Usaf Mobility Aircrew, Jonathan F. Mecham
Theses and Dissertations
Aircrew fatigue in flight operations is a known hazard that has driven the creation of fatigue-reducing regulation and fatigue risk management systems industry wide. In addition, biomathematical models have been created and tested to forecast the effectiveness of aircrew under conditions of time-zone shifts and long duty days. However, limited operational studies exist to validate these models or to help understand how individual factors can affect them. Operational studies have a variety of limitations that make gathering typical data regarding fatigue or sleep difficult. This research takes systems requirement analysis approach to design a study that measures effects of circadian …
Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways To Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation And Economic Modeling Framework For Coastal Installations, Alexander J. Baldwin
Developing Infrastructure Adaptation Pathways To Combat Hurricane Intensification: A Coupled Storm Simulation And Economic Modeling Framework For Coastal Installations, Alexander J. Baldwin
Theses and Dissertations
Climate change projections suggest intensification of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, is expected throughout the 21st century. This will lead to increased destruction for coastal military bases unless infrastructure resiliency and adaptation measures are implemented. This research focuses on examining the simulation of probabilistic, climate-intensified hurricane events at Eglin Air Force Base. FEMA Hazus models are combined with climate projections for wind Intensity, tide, and sea-level rise to produce an assessment of losses to the installation. Damage estimates and hurricane intensity outputs are downscaled to the facility-level so that climate adaptation signals can be identified. The facility losses and climate …
Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei
Design And Test Of An Autonomy Monitoring Service To Detect Divergent Behaviors On Unmanned Aerial Systems, Loay Y. Almannaei
Theses and Dissertations
Operation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) support many critical missions in the United State Air Force (USAF). Monitoring abnormal behavior is one of many responsibilities of the operator during a mission. Some behaviors are hard to be detect by an operator, especially when flying one or more autonomous vehicles; as such, detections require a high level of attention and focus to flight parameters. In this research, a monitoring system and its algorithm are designed and tested for a target fixed-wing UAV. The Autonomy Monitoring Service (AMS) compares the real vehicle or simulated Vehicle with a similar simulated vehicle using Software …
An Analysis Of A Hurricane Loss Model, Validation From Tyndall Afb, And Applications For The Air Force, Nestor Hernandez
An Analysis Of A Hurricane Loss Model, Validation From Tyndall Afb, And Applications For The Air Force, Nestor Hernandez
Theses and Dissertations
Recent reconstruction of infrastructure and its associated cost due to hurricanes justify research into hurricane loss models that can provide a more robust cost estimate. Academic research indicates that hurricane disasters are becoming more frequent and are becoming costlier. This research intends to explore hurricane loss models used by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Risk Management Solution (RMS) and Florida State University (FSU). Within the literature review, key components of hurricane loss models were identified. These models and the key components were explored in order to help bring an understanding of loss estimation. The research found that the implementation of …
Using A Field Mill Climatology To Assess All Lightning Launch Commit Criteria, Shane C. Gardner
Using A Field Mill Climatology To Assess All Lightning Launch Commit Criteria, Shane C. Gardner
Theses and Dissertations
Due to the danger and cost of lightning striking a space vehicle, the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) balances between the mission of launching and cessation thereof to minimize the risk of a lightning strike. This process is mediated through a set of rules called the Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC). To date, no empirical modeling of these rules has been established. To alleviate this shortcoming, this thesis uses the voltage readings of the surrounding CCAFS surface field mills to establish the viability of modeling the entirety of the LLCC rules statistically. Converting approximately 312,000,000 field mill voltage readings …
Optimization Of Airfield Parking And Fuel Asset Dispersal To Maximize Survivability And Mission Capability Level, Ryley R. H. Paquette
Optimization Of Airfield Parking And Fuel Asset Dispersal To Maximize Survivability And Mission Capability Level, Ryley R. H. Paquette
Theses and Dissertations
While the US focus for the majority of the past two decades has been on combatting insurgency and promoting stability in Southwest Asia, strategic focus is beginning to shift toward concerns of conflict with a near-peer state. Such conflict brings with it the risk of ballistic missile attack on air bases. With 26 conflicts worldwide in the past 100 years including attacks on air bases, new doctrine and modeling capacity are needed to enable the Department of Defense to continue use of vulnerable bases during conflict involving ballistic missiles. Several models have been developed to date for Air Force strategic …
An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller
An Investigation Into Subject Matter Expert Elicitation In Cost Risk Analysis, Christopher W. Miller
Theses and Dissertations
This research compares the efficacy of subject matter expert (SME) elicitation methods to other cost estimation methods using a development and production dataset provided by AFLCMC/FZC. First, by using descriptive statistics to evaluate low versus high amount of the respective cost estimation methods by analyzing the means of percent cost growth for both groups. Next, this research involved using a statistics-based approach to investigate whether SME based cost estimating methods have an associated relationship to percent change of Program Acquisition Unit Costs (PAUC), which will be our proxy variable to cost growth. Using a pooled cross-sectional OLS regression analysis model …
Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii
Methods For Using Manpower To Assess Usaf Strategic Risk, Calvin J. Bradshaw Iii
Theses and Dissertations
With limited personnel resource funding availability, senior US Air Force (USAF) decision makers struggle to base enterprise resource allocation from rigorous analytical traceability. There are over 240 career fields in the USAF spanning 12 enterprises. Each enterprise develops annual risk assessments by distinctive core capabilities. A core capability (e.g. Research and Development) is an enabling function necessary for the USAF to perform its mission as part of the Department of Defense (DOD). Assessing risk at the core capability is a good start to assessing risk, but is still not comprehensiveness enough. One of the twelve enterprises has linked its task …
Cost Versus Risk: The Policy Of Nuclear Weapon Maintenance Of Tritium Based Limited Life Components, Michael P. Mason
Cost Versus Risk: The Policy Of Nuclear Weapon Maintenance Of Tritium Based Limited Life Components, Michael P. Mason
Theses and Dissertations
This research develops a method to measure the cost to society of current maintenance policy for the exchange of tritium based limited life components within nuclear weapons. The incentives for the Department of Energy and Department of Defense which causes either a substantial cost or substantial risk to be accepted by either Department. A simulation model is created to measure the current policy and compare it to different policies in order to recommend a policy that would minimize the cost to society. The measurement of the cost to society will offer decision makers insight into the ramifications of their decisions.
Air Force Project Risk Management – The Impact Of Inconsistent Processes, Eric J. Perez
Air Force Project Risk Management – The Impact Of Inconsistent Processes, Eric J. Perez
Theses and Dissertations
On the surface, the majority of Air Force units appear to be executing some form of project risk management (PRM). Deeper investigation exposes many of the PRM practices currently in place to often be ad hoc, and as such, have the potential to poorly inform decisions when risk data is escalated to the enterprise levels of the Air Force. Resultantly, there is inconsistency between the PRM processes practiced by Air Force units. This inconsistency is an indication of risk mishandling at the project level and erroneous risk data provided at the enterprise levels of the Air Force. It may be …
Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering
Validation And Improvement Of Reliability Methods For Air Force Building Systems, Patrick A. Deering
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Air Force manages its civil infrastructure resource allocation via a two-dimensional risk model consisting of the consequence of failure and reliability. Air Force civil engineers currently use the BUILDER® Sustainment Management System to estimate and predict reliability at multiple levels within its civil infrastructure systems. Alley (2015) developed and validated a probabilistic model to calculate reliability at the system level. The probabilistic model was found to be a significant improvement over the currently employed BUILDER® model for four major building systems (electrical, HVAC, fire protection, and electrical). This research assessed the performance and accuracy of both the …
A Risk Based Approach To Node Insertion Within Social Networks, Chancellor A. J. Johnstone
A Risk Based Approach To Node Insertion Within Social Networks, Chancellor A. J. Johnstone
Theses and Dissertations
Social Network Analysis (SNA) is a primary tool for counter-terrorism operations, ranging from resiliency and influence to interdiction on threats stemming from illicit overt and clandestine network operations. In an ideal world, SNA would provide a perfect course of action to eliminate dangerous situations that terrorist organizations bring. Unfortunately, the covert nature of terrorist networks makes the effects of these techniques unknown and possibly detrimental. To avoid potentially harmful changes to enemy networks, tactical involvement must evolve, beginning with the intelligent use of network in filtration through the application of the node insertion problem. The framework for the node insertion …
Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney
Investigation Into Risk And Uncertainty: Identifying Coefficient Of Variation Benchmarks For Air Force Acat I Programs, Shaun T. Carney
Theses and Dissertations
Previous DoD cost growth studies found typical cost growth in defense acquisitions is around forty-six to sixty percent of the original estimate. The research in this study addresses the identification of risk and uncertainty benchmarks by providing decision makers with coefficient of variation ranges for cost estimates. The study recommends coefficient of variation (CV) ranges for Air Force Acquisition programs, determines if different CV ranges should be used based on platform type, and determines if CV decreases over the course of the program's acquisition lifecycle. The analysis found that the Air Force should enhance the CV review process to ensure …
Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger
Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger
Theses and Dissertations
Collateral damage presents a significant risk during air drops and airstrikes, risking citizens' lives and property, straining the relationship between the United States Air Force and host nations. This dissertation presents a methodology to determine the optimal location for making supply airdrops in order to minimize collateral damage while maintaining a high likelihood of successful recovery. A series of non-linear optimization algorithms is presented along with their relative success in finding the optimal location in the airdrop problem. Additionally, we present a quick algorithm for accurately creating the Pareto frontier in the multi-objective airstrike problem. We demonstrate the effect of …
Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain
Analysis Of Kc-46 Live-Fire Risk Mitigation Program Testing, Chad N. Chamberlain
Theses and Dissertations
Increased emphasis from the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) over the past few years to include statistical rigor in all testing has brought an augmented look at testing across the Department of Defense. This thesis examines the methodology currently used in live fire testing, particularly in the case of risk mitigation of the KC-46 dry-bay fire test program. The thesis addresses gaps within the methodology and analyzes the results of a statistically rigorous test. The research furthers work on modeling the characterization of ballistic impact flash by validating concurrent models and characterizing the errors prone to these models …
Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow
Ballistic Flash Characterization: Penetration And Back-Face Flash, Michael J. Koslow
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force is extremely concerned with the safety of its people, especially those who are flying aircraft. Aircrew members flying combat missions are concerned with the chance that a fragment from an exploding threat device may penetrate into the airframe to possibly ignite a fire onboard the aircraft. One concern for vulnerability revolves around a flash that may occur when a projectile strikes and penetrates an aircraft's fuselage. When certain fired rounds strike the airframe, they break into fragments called spall. Spall and other fragmentation from an impact often gain enough thermal energy to oxidize the materials involved. This …
A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff
A Spatial Risk Analysis Of Oil Refineries Within The United States, Zachary L. Schiff
Theses and Dissertations
A risk analysis methodology is necessary to manage the potential effects of oil refinery outages to the increasingly connected, interdependent critical infrastructure of the United States. Following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the lack of a critical infrastructure risk mitigation strategy was identified as an area for improvement. In both the 9/11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, cascading failures occurred due to the interdependencies among infrastructures and their spatial relationships. Furthermore, the U.S. military is dependent on oil refining capability and a major shortage could potentially have devastating effects on mission accomplishment. As a result, a need has emerged to better …
Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper
Agent Based Modeling And Simulation Framework For Supply Chain Risk Management, Tiffany J. Harper
Theses and Dissertations
This research develops a flexible agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) framework for supply chain risk management with significant enhancements to standard ABMS methods and supply chain risk modeling. Our framework starts with the use of software agents to gather and process input data for use in our simulation model. For our simulation model, we extend an existing mathematical framework for discrete event simulation (DES) to ABMS and then implement the concepts of variable resolution modeling from the DES domain to ABMS and provide further guidelines for aggregation and disaggregation of supply chain models. Existing supply chain risk management research focuses …
Risks Associated With Federal Construction Projects, Krishna R. Surajbally
Risks Associated With Federal Construction Projects, Krishna R. Surajbally
Theses and Dissertations
The rise in terrorism, corporate espionage, cyber attacks, and federal fiscal constraints play an important role in the federal construction process. The risks associated with these occurrences are studied to aid in the risk management of the military construction process. This paper presents the status of research into these areas to identify how methods, policies, applications, and information obtained from case studies can be used by stakeholders to manage risk in the United States Air Force construction process. The author reviewed research on risk associated with four essential components of the military construction process – Critical Infrastructure, Information Technology, Contracts, …
Estimating Cargo Airdrop Collateral Damage Risk, Vincent R. Cammarano
Estimating Cargo Airdrop Collateral Damage Risk, Vincent R. Cammarano
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to determine an appropriate method for estimating cargo airdrop collateral damage risk. Specifically, this thesis answers the question: How can mission planners accurately predict airdrop collateral damage risk? The question is answered through a literature review and a thorough examination of a data set of real world airdrop scoring data. The data were examined to determine critical factors that affect airdrop error risks as well as to determine the characteristics of airdrop error patterns. Through this research it was determined that bivariate normal distributions with parameters pairs determined by empirical data are appropriate for …
Improving The Relevance Of Cyber Incident Notification For Mission Assurance, Stephen M. Woskov
Improving The Relevance Of Cyber Incident Notification For Mission Assurance, Stephen M. Woskov
Theses and Dissertations
Military organizations have embedded Information and Communication Technology (ICT) into their core mission processes as a means to increase operational efficiency, improve decision making quality, and shorten the kill chain. This dependence can place the mission at risk when the loss, corruption, or degradation of the confidentiality, integrity, and/or availability of a critical information resource occurs. Since the accuracy, conciseness, and timeliness of the information used in decision making processes dramatically impacts the quality of command decisions, and hence, the operational mission outcome; the recognition, quantification, and documentation of critical mission-information resource dependencies is essential for the organization to gain …
Application Of Post Modern Portfolio Theory To Mitigate Risk In International Shipping, Michael R. Quashne
Application Of Post Modern Portfolio Theory To Mitigate Risk In International Shipping, Michael R. Quashne
Theses and Dissertations
This research uses asset allocation concepts to determine the correct amount of cargo to send down the PAKGLOC and NDN to minimize the risk of loss or damage. Loss and Damage data is used from Transportation Discrepancy Reports and overall value is assumed to match the industry standard. Using assumed levels of pilferage along the NDN, a Monte Carlo simulation is run at each level of pilferage, and a Co-Lower Partial Moment model is solved. Analysis of the data shows a wide spread of possible optimal solutions at each level of pilferage. Due to the low levels of risk along …