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Risk Analysis

Air Force Institute of Technology

Theses/Dissertations

Airborne operations (Military science)

Publication Year

Articles 1 - 2 of 2

Full-Text Articles in Engineering

Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger Sep 2012

Minimization Of Collateral Damage In Airdrops And Airstrikes, Steven P. Dillenburger

Theses and Dissertations

Collateral damage presents a significant risk during air drops and airstrikes, risking citizens' lives and property, straining the relationship between the United States Air Force and host nations. This dissertation presents a methodology to determine the optimal location for making supply airdrops in order to minimize collateral damage while maintaining a high likelihood of successful recovery. A series of non-linear optimization algorithms is presented along with their relative success in finding the optimal location in the airdrop problem. Additionally, we present a quick algorithm for accurately creating the Pareto frontier in the multi-objective airstrike problem. We demonstrate the effect of …


Estimating Cargo Airdrop Collateral Damage Risk, Vincent R. Cammarano Mar 2011

Estimating Cargo Airdrop Collateral Damage Risk, Vincent R. Cammarano

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research is to determine an appropriate method for estimating cargo airdrop collateral damage risk. Specifically, this thesis answers the question: How can mission planners accurately predict airdrop collateral damage risk? The question is answered through a literature review and a thorough examination of a data set of real world airdrop scoring data. The data were examined to determine critical factors that affect airdrop error risks as well as to determine the characteristics of airdrop error patterns. Through this research it was determined that bivariate normal distributions with parameters pairs determined by empirical data are appropriate for …