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Estimating Engineering Cost Risk Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Vincent P. Sipple

Theses and Dissertations

This study explores a two-step procedure for assessing defense acquisition program cost growth using historical data. Specifically, we seek to predict whether a program will experience cost growth and, if applicable, how much costs will increase. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2000 for programs from all defense departments. We focus our analysis on cost growth in research and development dollars for the Engineering Manufacturing Development phase of acquisition. We further limit our study to only one of the seven SAR categories of cost growth engineering cost growth. We explore the use of …