Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors find that a simple heuristic of sorting liquid equity options by dollar price to construct a portfolio of cheap put options leads to a surprisingly robust hedge for tail risk – the superior performance holds even when compared against more advanced empirical strategies. Further investigation reveals the asymmetry in market correlation under different market conditions as the mechanism of this robust hedging performance. The cheap options selected by the heuristic comprises of stocks with diverse firm characteristics. The correlation spike accompanying tail risk events leads to the majority of these put options moving into-the-money (ITM), thus compensating the …

A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedging is a common trading activity to manage the risk of engaging in transactions that involve derivatives such as options. Perfect and timely hedging, however, is an impossible task in the real market that characterizes discrete-time transactions with costs. Recent years have witnessed reinforcement learning (RL) in formulating optimal hedging strategies. Specifically, different RL algorithms have been applied to learn the optimal offsetting position based on market conditions, offering an automatic risk management solution that proposes optimal hedging strategies while catering to both market dynamics and restrictions. In this article, the author provides a comprehensive review of the use of …

The Analysis Of The Roles Of Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Gold As Hedge And Safe-Haven Assets On The Indonesian Stock Market Before And During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Carla A. Wijaya, Maria Ulpah

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The uncertainty due to the COVID-19 outbreak has encouraged investors to look for value hedging instruments to minimize risk, which can be in the form of hedging assets or safe-haven assets. In response to it, this study aims to find out whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold can behave as hedging and safe-haven assets before and amid the pandemic in Indonesia. The strategy is by observing the effects of volatility and return of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold on the Indonesian stock market. This study employed both quantile regression and simple linear regression models on data of daily closing price taken before …

Derivative Initiative: Does The Use Of Financial Derivatives Influence Firm Value In The Philippine Context?, Julia Alfonso D. Arrastia, Christina Angela N. Balagot, Joseph Anthony C. Go, Dominique Ann Philomena V. Lacuna

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Firms use financial derivatives as a way to hedge risky transactions to avoid financial risks. Studies have focused on firms’ use of financial derivatives in developed countries. However, there is limited research done on emerging markets like the Philippines because these economies have only recently adapted advanced reporting standards that obligate the disclosure of the nature and extent of risks resulting from the use of financial instruments. We used Tobin’s Q ratio to proxy for firm value and determine the presence of a hedging premium. Because derivatives are used by firms to hedge against currency risks, interest rate risks, and …

Hedging Season: The Effect Of Hedging Using Financial Derivatives On Firm Value Of Publicly-Listed Non-Financial Firms In The Philippines, Julio Alfonso D. Arrastia, Christina Angela N. Balagot, Joseph Anthony Go, Dominique Ann Philomena V. Lacuna

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Firms use financial derivatives as a way to hedge risky transactions to avoid financial risks. Studies have focused on firms’ use of financial derivatives in developed countries. However, there is limited research done on emerging markets like the Philippines because these economies have only recently adapted advanced reporting standards that obligate the disclosure of the nature and extent of risks resulting from the use of financial instruments. We used Tobin’s Q ratio to proxy for firm value and to determine the presence of a hedging premium. Because derivatives are used by firms to hedge against currency risks, interest rate risks, …

Reinforcement Learning For Dynamic Futures Hedging, Evan Bullard

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

This paper focuses on oil hedging using near month crude oil futures. Hedging may allow a firm to reduce risks and focus on areas of comparative advantage. Hedging requires a firm to estimate ex-ante the correct hedge ratio. The portfolio optimization framework allows for OLS to be applied to the estimation of a hedge ratio. Reinforcement Learning is another method available to hedgers to estimate a hedge ratio. Three strategies using econometric tools and one using Reinforcement Learning are estimated and tested against 2019 oil price data.

Derivatives Use And Risk Taking: Evidence From Alternative Mutual Funds, Alyse Mcalpine

Financial Analyst

I provide new empirical evidence on the effect of derivatives usage on the risk and performance of a group of mutual funds mimicking hedge fund strategies, namely alternative mutual funds (AMFs). Using data on a sample of 914 AMFs from Morningstar during 2002-2017, I show that while the use of derivatives does impact the performance of AMFs, it significantly increases AMFs’ total and idiosyncratic volatilities, even after we control for various fund characteristics. This positive relation between the use of derivatives and the risk-taking of AMFs is particularly strong during the crisis period, and Bear Market, Long-Short Credit, Managed Futures, …

Risk Management And Hedging Approaches In Energy Markets, Jim Hanly

Articles

Energy based assets are showing increased susceptibility to volatility arising out of geo-political, economic, climate and technological events. Given the economic importance of energy products, their market participants need to be able to access efficient strategies to effectively manage their exposures and reduce price risk. This chapter will outline the key futures based hedging approaches that have been developed for managing energy price risk and evaluate their effectiveness. A key element of this analysis will be the breadth of assets considered. These include Crude and Refined Oil products, Natural Gas, and wholesale Electricity markets. We find significant differences in the …

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

Hedging And Pricing Rent Risk With Search Frictions, Briana Chang, Hyunsoo Choi, Harrison Hong, Jeffrey Kubik

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The desire of risk-averse households to hedge rent risk is thought to increase home ownership and prices. While evidence for the ownership implication is compelling, support for the price effect is mixed. We show that an important reason is search frictions. Rent risk reduces outside options, leading to less-picky buyers and worse home/buyer matches. This attenuates the rise in the price-to-rent ratio that would otherwise occur without frictions. Consistent with our model, a house remains on the market for fewer days when rent risk is higher. Accounting for frictions significantly increases the effect of rent risk on home prices.

Managing Energy Price Risk Using Futures Contracts: A Comparative Analysis, Jim Hanly

Articles

This paper carries out a comparative analysis of managing energy risk through futures hedging, for energy market participants across a broad dataset that encompasses the largest and most actively traded energy products. Uniquely, we carry out a hedge comparison using a variety of risk measures including Variance, Value at risk (VaR), and Expected Shortfall as well as a utility based performance metric for two different investor horizons; weekly and monthly. We find that hedging is effective across the spectrum of risk measures we employ. We also find significant differences in both the hedging strategies and the hedging effectiveness of different …

Hedging Exchange Rate Risks, Godwill George Wanga

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

Risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates affect investment cost and investor profitability. Approximately 50% of firms in emerging markets have significant exposure to fluctuating exchange rates. Grounded in principal-agent theory (PAT), the purpose of this case study was to explore hedging strategies to mitigate risks of fluctuating exchange rates. The population comprised a census sampling of 12 bank hedgers (risk managers and controllers) in Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, East Africa. Data collection involved semistructured interviews, casual observations of the work environment, and analysis of reports including risk management, internal control, and compliance policies. Data were analyzed by coding and …

Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing literature treats the short side (i.e., short selling) and the long side of hedge fund trading (i.e., fund holdings) independently. The two sides, however, complement each other: opposite changes in the two are likely to be driven by information, whereas simultaneous increases (decreases) of the two may be motivated by hedging (unwinding) considerations. We use this intuition to identify informed demand and document that it exhibits highly significant predictive power over returns (approximately 10% per year). We also find that informed demand forecasts future firm fundamentals, suggesting that hedge funds play an important role in information discovery. (C) …

Do Analysts Understand The Economic And Reporting Complexities Of Derivatives?, Hye Sun Chang, Michael Donohoe, Theodore Sougiannis

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We investigate whether and how the complexity of derivatives influences analysts earnings forecast properties. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that, relative to a matched control sample of non-users, analysts earnings forecasts for new derivatives users are less accurate and more dispersed after derivatives initiation. These results do not appear to be driven by the economic complexity of derivatives, but rather the financial reporting of such economic complexity. Overall, despite their financial expertise, analysts routinely misjudge the earnings implications of firms derivatives activity. However, we find evidence that a series of derivatives accounting standards has helped analysts improve their forecasts …

Volatility And Risk Management In European Electricity Futures Markets, Jim Hanly, Lucia Morales

Articles

This paper estimates and applies a risk management strategy for electricity spot exposures using futures hedging. We apply our approach to three of the most actively traded European electricity markets, Nordpool, APXUK and Phelix. We compare both optimal hedging strategies and the hedging effectiveness of these markets for two hedging horizons, weekly and monthly using both Variance and Value at Risk (VaR). We find significant differences in both the Optimal Hedge Ratios (OHR’s) and the hedging effectiveness of the different electricity markets. Better performance is found for the Nordpool market while the poorest performer in hedging terms is Phelix. However …

Ethanol Energy Futures: Identifying Hedge Ratios, Cointegration Equations And Price Bubbles, Sergio Garcia

Theses and Dissertations - UTB/UTPA

Ethanol has been the subject of intense debate following the adoption of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) which established that the gasoline supply in the United States (U.S.) must contain 10% ethanol. The subsequent increase in the production of ethanol since 2005 has had an effect on the prices of corn, ethanol, and gasoline. This work seeks to identify hedging ratios using dynamic multivariate GARCH to best identify hedging opportunities in a newly developed futures market. In addition, Cointegration and Vector Error Models are used to identify relationships in price movements between ethanol futures, spot prices and related …

Usage Of Derivatives In Business Today, Duston J. Hodgkins

Honors Scholar Theses

Derivatives were created as a method of hedging risks. Yet in today's society, derivatives have taken on many new roles, and with it have systemically changed the way the financial industry operates. Warren Buffett called these powerful tools "financial weapons of mass destruction." No longer do these tools simply mitigate risks; instead, they are creating new and potentially lethal risks. How did their usage shift from risk management? This thesis delves into what actions occurred over the past half century that drove derivatives usage to what is facing the market today. Through the exploration of major successes and failures of …

Essays On Earnings Quality: Evidence From Net Share Issue, Put Option Sales, And Hedging, Jagadish Dandu

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

There are three essays in this research. The main objective of the research is to extend the literature in corporate finance by investigating the quality of earnings around corporate events like net share issues, put option sales by firms on their own stock, and hedging commodities by high input cost group of firms.

The first paper is "Does Earnings Quality predicts Net Share Issuance". This paper investigates whether quality of earnings predicts net share issuance by corporations. Pontiff and Woodgate (2008) show that annual share issuance (ISSUE) measure is a better predictor of future cross-sectional returns and we use this …

Pricing Options On Foreign Currency With A Preset Exchange Rate, Avner Wolf, Christopher Heseel

Publications and Research

This paper presents a new option that can be used by agents for managing foreign exchange risk. Unlike the Garman Kolhagen model [1], (GK), this paper presents a new model with a preset exchange rate (PE), that allows the agent to take advantage of the his/her view on both the direction and magnitude of rate movement and as such provides this agent with more choices. The model has a provision for an automatic exchange of the payoff at a preset exchange rate, and upon expiration gives the agent the choice of keeping the payoff in the foreign currency or exchanging …

Risk Allocation Across The Enterprise: Evidence From The Insurance Industry, Michael K. Mcshane, Tao Zhang, Larry A. Cox

Finance Faculty Publications

Financial researchers initially regarded hedging activities as a means to reduce total firm risk, which often is defined in terms of cash flow volatility. More recently, researchers have focused on the strategic allocation of risk. Direct tests of risk allocation have been problematic, however, because hedging data are rarely available and, when available, are specific only to a single operation of the firm, such as bank lending. In this study, we exploit unique data from the insurance industry that allows us to observe hedging proxies for both investment and insurance underwriting risks and test the risk allocation hypothesis developed in …

Hedging Effectiveness Under Conditions Of Asymmetry, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

We examine whether hedging effectiveness is affected by asymmetry in the return distribution by applying tail specific metrics, for example, Value at Risk, to compare the hedging effectiveness of short and long hedgers. Comparisons are applied to a number of hedging strategies including OLS, and both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We apply our analysis to a dataset consisting of S&P500 index cash and futures containing symmetric and asymmetric return distributions chosen ex-post. Our findings show that asymmetry reduces out-of-sample hedging performance and that significant differences occur in hedging performance between short and long hedgers.

Risk Allocation Across The Enterprise: Evidence From The Insurance Industry, Michael K. Mcshane, Tao Zhang, Larry A. Cox

Finance Faculty Publications

Financial researchers initially regarded hedging activities as a means to reduce total firm risk, which often is defined in terms of cash flow volatility. More recently, researchers have focused on the strategic allocation of risk. Direct tests of risk allocation have been problematic, however, because hedging data are rarely available and, when available, are specific only to a single operation of the firm, such as bank lending. In this study, we exploit unique data from the insurance industry that allows us to observe hedging proxies for both investment and insurance underwriting risks and test the risk allocation hypothesis developed in …

Essays On Foreign Currency Risk Management, Sungjae Francis Kim

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation studies on-balance-sheet and off-balance-sheet foreign currency risk management of corporate firms and commercial banks. It is comprised of two essays. The first essay investigates what determines firms’ foreign currency spot net asset positions, derivatives hedging and synthetic hedging positions. We build a model that anticipates a firm’s market timing in currency markets and credit markets according to the exchange-rate return and interest rate differential. Using a unique set of data containing complete foreign currency spot and derivatives positions of Korean exporting firms, we empirically find that currency position-squaring firms have significantly higher firm value. We also find evidence …

Time Varying Risk Aversion: An Application To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of …

Three Essays In Options Pricing: 1. Volatilities Implied By Price Changes In The S&P 500 Options And Future Contracts 2. Price Changes In The S&P Options And Futures Contracts: A Regression Analysis 3. Hedging Price Changes In The S&P 500 Options And Futures Contracts: The Effect Of Different Measures Of Implied Volatility, Jitka Hilliard

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

In this work, I develop a new volatility measure; the volatility implied by price changes in option contracts and their underlyings. I refer to this as implied price change volatility. First, I examine the time series behavior of implied price change volatility and investigate possible moneyness and maturity effects. I compare these characteristics to those of the usual implied volatility measure and the historical volatility of the S&P 500 index. Then, I investigate the performance of the implied price change volatility in a regression setup and in hedging applications. I compare the performance of hedges using daily updated implied price …

Essays On Currency Risk Management, Nehad Elsawaf

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

In recent years a growing number of corporations have committed considerable resources to risk management, indicating the potential for risk management to protect and increase firm value. One can argue that most prior attempts to directly link the value of the firm to its hedging strategies are rather scant. Moreover, several questions with regards to firms' risk management activities remain unanswered. This study consists of two essays dealing with a series of questions regarding corporate risk management in modern U.S. multinational corporations.

In the first essay we first, test the valuation effects of currency hedging policies of firms around extraordinary …

A Note On The Preferred Hedge Instrument, Arthur Hau

Hong Kong Institute of Business Studies Working Paper Series

Contrary to Battermann et al.'s (2000) claims, this paper shows that risk-averse exporters may produce less with fair commodity futures than with fair put options; moreover, they may prefer the latter instrument for hedging against its exchange rate risk.

A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied To Hedging, Belal E. Baaquie, Marakani Skirant, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

A quantum field theory generalization, Baaquie [1], of the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (HJM) [10] term structure model parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. Field theory also offers powerful computational tools to compute path integrals which naturally arise from all forward rate models. Specifically, incorporating field theory into the term structure facilitates hedge parameters that reduce to their finite factor HJM counterparts under special correlation structures. Although investors are unable to perfectly hedge against an infinite number of term structure perturbations in a field theory model, empirical evidence using market data reveals the effectiveness of a low …

M-Garch Hedge Ratios And Hedging Effectiveness In Australian Futures Markets, Wenling Yang

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

This study deals with the estimation of the optimal hedge ratios using various econometric models. Most of the recent papers have demonstrated that the conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) method of estimating constant hedge ratios is inappropriate, other more complicated models however seem to produce no more efficient hedge ratios. Using daily AOIs and SPI futures on the Australian market, optimal hedge ratios are calculated from four different models: the OLS regression model, the bivariate vector autoaggressive model (BVAR), the error-correction model (ECM) and the multivariate diagonal Vcc GARCH Model. The performance of each hedge ratio is then compared. The …