Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Historical Perspectives In Volatility Forecasting Methods With Machine Learning, Zhiang Qiu, Clemens Kownatzki, Fabien Scalzo, Eun Sang Cha

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

Volatility forecasting in the financial market plays a pivotal role across a spectrum of disciplines, such as risk management, option pricing, and market making. However, volatility forecasting is challenging because volatility can only be estimated, and different factors influence volatility, ranging from macroeconomic indicators to investor sentiments. While recent works suggest advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence for volatility forecasting, a comprehensive benchmark of current statistical and learning-based methods for such purposes is lacking. Thus, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey of the historical evolution of volatility forecasting with a comparative benchmark of key landmark models. We …

Two Essays In Real Estate Dynamics, Navid Safari

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

Real estate dynamics encompass a multifaceted interplay of various factors that shape the market. This dissertation presents two distinct essays that delve into critical aspects of real estate dynamics.

In the first essay, we investigate the influence of short-term rentals, specifically Airbnb activity, on neighboring house prices in Hampton Roads, Virginia. By employing robust measures such as active listings, reservations, and their cumulative impact over different periods, we uncover a positive association between prior Airbnb rental activity and housing sales prices. Moreover, we observe a spatial decay effect, where the localized impact diminishes with increasing geographic distance, particularly beyond 500 …

Data Driven Value-At-Risk Forecasting Using A Svr-Garch-Kde Hybrid, Marius Lux, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Stefan Lessmann

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Appropriate risk management is crucial to ensure the competitiveness of financial institutions and the stability of the economy. One widely used financial risk measure is value-at-risk (VaR). VaR estimates based on linear and parametric models can lead to biased results or even underestimation of risk due to time varying volatility, skewness and leptokurtosis of financial return series. The paper proposes a nonlinear and nonparametric framework to forecast VaR that is motivated by overcoming the disadvantages of parametric models with a purely data driven approach. Mean and volatility are modeled via support vector regression (SVR) where the volatility model is motivated …

The Impact Of The Introduction Of Fx Futures On The Volatility Of The Underlying Asian Emerging Market Currencies, Teresa Starzecki

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of currency futures on the volatility of four Asian emerging market currencies: Chinese yuan, Indian rupee, South Korean won, and Thai baht. A GARCH(1,1) model is implemented to measure volatility in pre- and post- futures introduction periods along with an MCMC procedure to estimate the model and test the significance in changes in volatility between the periods. We find that for three of the four currencies, the persistence and long-run mean of volatility significantly decrease after futures were introduced, while the variance of variance decreases for all four currencies. The results suggest …

Predictive Distributions Via Filtered Historical Simulation For Financial Risk Management, Tyson Clark

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Filtered historical simulation with an underlying GARCH process can be used as a valuable tool in VaR analysis, as it derives risk estimates that are sensitive to the distributional properties of the historical data of the produced predictive density. I examine the applications to risk analysis that filtered historical simulation can provide, as well as an interpretation of the predictive density as a poor man’s Bayesian posterior distribution. The predictive density allows us to make associated probabilistic statements regarding the results for VaR analysis, giving greater measurement of risk and the ability to maintain the optimal level of risk per …

Pricing Asian Options: Volatility Forecasting As A Source Of Downside Risk, Adam T. Diehl

Undergraduate Economic Review

Asian options are a class of derivative securities whose payoffs average movements in the underlying asset as a means of hedging exposure to unexpected market behavior. We find that despite their volatility smoothing properties, the price of an Asian option is sensitive to the choice of volatility model employed to price them from market data. We estimate the errors induced by two common schemes of forecasting volatility and their potential impact upon trading.

Is Google Search Behavior Related To Volatility? Incorporating Google Trends Data Into A Garch Model For Equity Volatility, Timothy De Silva

Undergraduate Economic Review

Intuitively, one would expect that internet search volume would contain valuable information about investor sentiment for a company. With the development of new data sources, such as Google Trends, this relationship can be more easily and objectively examined. This paper seeks to examine the relationship between a company’s stock price volatility and its Google search volume. A small cross-section of twenty companies is considered, and the goal of this paper is to demonstrate the power of Google Trends data in hope of initiating further research. Using a conventional GARCH framework for financial market volatility, an economically and statistically significant contemporaneous …

A Closer Look At The Impact Of Quantitative Easing On The Capital Markets: Garch Analysis Of The Exchange Traded Funds Market, Nicholas R. Duafala

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the capital markets by modeling exchange traded funds (ETFs) returns using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology. The results show that the 10-Year Treasury yields are significant in the returns of some sectors of the economy more so than others, and the Federal Funds Futures trading volume is significant in all ETFs return volatility. The implications of these results not only provide information about the reaction of the ETF market and QE, but also provide insight for developing investment strategies.

Modeling Stock Return Volatility In Mongolian Stock Market, Munkhtsog Altankhuu

Theses

This paper is one of the first research works to examine the stock index volatility in the Mongolian Stock Exchange. The study utilizes the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GAR CH) models to estimate volatility of stock market return of the Mongolian Stock Exchange. A number of prior research work demonstrated that ARCH and GARCH models are fruitful models for modeling volatility of time series data. However, they recommend using different versions of GARCH-type models for different distributions (Normal, Student's t, Skewed Student's t and Generalized Error Distribution) for emerging markets or developing markets. This paper compares the GARCH(l, 1) model …

Modelling The Volatility-Timing Of Funds Under Cpf Investment Theme, X Shen, Albert K. Tsui, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs 2013

The performance measure of funds has been an important topic in the past few decades. In recent years the conditional models on return and volatility have become popular in studying the funds’ performance measure, but most of these studies focus on the US funds and a few on the Asian-based funds. The purpose of this study is to examine the volatility-timing performance of Singapore-based funds under the CPF (Central Provident Fund) Investment Scheme and non-CPF linked funds by taking into account of the currency risk effect on internationally managed funds. The CPF investment scheme was introduced in 1986 by the …

Jump Processes In The Market For Crude Oil, Neil Wilmot, Charles Mason

Charles F Mason

In many commodity markets, the arrival of new information leads to unexpectedly rapid changes—or jumps—in commodity prices. Such arrivals suggest the assumption that log-return relatives are normally distributed may hold. Combined with time-varying volatility, the possibility of jumps offers a potential explanation for fat tails in oil price returns. This article investigates the potential presence of jumps and time-varying volatility in the spot price of crude oil and in futures prices. The investigation is carried out over three data frequencies (Monthly, Weekly, Daily), which allows for an investigation of temporal properties. Employing likelihood ratio tests to compare among four stochastic …

Arma-Garch Model Applied To Exchange-Traded Funds, Rebecca Davis

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In this paper, time-varying volatility of some of the leading exchange-traded funds are studied. The ARMA mean equation with GARCH errors is used to model the series correlations and the conditional heteroscadesticity in the asset

returns. The conditional distributions of the standardized residuals are assumed to be skew-generalized error distribution. The high kurtosis and fat tail of the returns, were captured in all the data by fitting an ARMA-GARCH model with the conditional distribution of, skew-generalized error distribution.

Furthermore, the sample cross-correlations of these significant exchange-traded funds and the corresponding financial indices they mimic were computed. The empirical conclusion was …

Study Of Volatility Structures In Geophysics And Finance Using Garch Models, Francis Biney

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This work investigates the underlying volatility processes in earthquake series, explosive series, high frequency (tick) data and financial indices. Furthermore it examines the applicability of a range of GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of these series in order to identify similarities and differences in the volatility structures. The GARCH

variants considered include the basic GARCH, IGARCH, ARFIMA (0,d,0)-GARCH and FIGARCH specifications. In all the applications the methodology provides insight into features of these series volatility.

Socially Responsible Investment In A Changing World, Desheng Wu

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Socially responsible investment funds make up a growing segment of the investment world. This work considers the impact of including SRI in an investor portfolio both normally and during crisis times. Regimes are identified using Markov switching models. This study is based on return data of four indices, namely, the MSCI World Index, S&P 500, Eurostoxx 50, and the socially responsible index - Advanced Sustainable Performance Index (ASPI). The approaches used are portfolio optimization, GARCH and Markov switching models. Our work shows that a socially responsible index is a good asset to keep in a portfolio. Our simulation results suggest …

Style Investing: International Evidence, Daniel Rafael Perez

Theses and Dissertations - UTB/UTPA

This dissertation studies the impact of investor sentiment on a portfolio formed of sin stocks—publicly traded companies in the alcohol, tobacco, and gaming industries. It also investigates the returns of a new type of sin stock in the UK—online gambling. Chapter 3 first uses a vector autogressive model to study the impact of both rational and irrational investor sentiments on pure sin returns. Next, making use of a variety of sentiments-augmented asset pricing models, this research examines whether investor sentiment is a risk factor for sin stock returns and if the abnormal returns of sin stocks persist after controlling for …

Interest Rate Convergence In The Euro-Candidate Countries: Volatility Dynamics Of Sovereign Bond Yields, Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Working Papers

We advocate a dynamic approach to monetary convergence to a common currency that is based on the analysis of financial system stability. Accordingly, we test empirically volatility dynamics of the ten-year sovereign bond yields of the 2004 EU accession countries in relation to the eurozone yields during the January 2, 2001- January 22, 2009 sample period. Our results show a varied degree of bond yield co-movements, the most pronounced for the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland, and weaker for Hungary and Slovakia. However, since the EU accession, we find some divergence of relative bond yields. We argue that a ‘static’ …

Realized Daily Variance Of S&P500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley J. Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this paper, the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland, and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …

Realized Daily Variance Of S&P 500 Cash Index: A Revaluation Of Stylized Facts, Shirley Huang, Qianqiu Liu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper the realized daily variance is obtained from intraday transaction prices of the S&P 500 cash index over the period from January 1993 to December 2004. When constructing realized daily variance, market microstructure noise is taken into account using a technique proposed by Zhang, Mykland and Ait-Sahalia (2005). The time series properties of realized daily variance are compared with those of variance estimates obtained from parametric GARCH and stochastic volatility models. Unconditional and dynamic properties concerning the realized daily variance are examined, the relationship between realized variance and returns is investigated, and the stylized facts concerning realized daily …