Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

On The Effects Of Information Asymmetry In Digital Currency Trading, Kwansoo Kim, Robert John Kauffman

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We report on two studies that examine how social sentiment influences information asymmetry in digital currency markets. We also assess whether cryptocurrency can be an investment vehicle, as opposed to only an instrument for asset speculation. Using a dataset on transactions from an exchange in South Korea and sentiment from Korean social media in 2018, we conducted a study of different trading behavior under two cryptocurrency trading market microstructures: a bid-ask spread dealer's market and a continuous trading buy-sell, immediate trade execution market. Our results highlight the impacts of positive and negative trader social sentiment valences on the effects of …

The Economics Of Financial Scams: Evidence From Initial Coin Offerings, Kenny Phua, Bo Sang, Chi Shen Wei, Yang Yu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the economics of financial scams by analyzing the market for initial coin offerings (ICOs). Using data snapshots of 5,873 ICOs, we find that irregularities in ICO characteristics across listing websites predict higher scam risk and are likely intentional. These patterns are consistent with a model where malicious issuers maximize profits by using irregularities to screen for naïve investors. Almost half of the ICOs in our sample may be scams, amounting to more than U.S. $6 billion in losses. Our results draw attention to the frequent use of screening mechanisms in financial scams.

In Search Of Cryptocurrency Failure, Donglian Ma, Jun Tu, Zhaobo Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper explores the determinants of cryptocurrency failure and the pricing of crypto failure risk. We document different significant market- and characteristic-based predictors for coin and token failures. The introduction of Bitcoin futures and the outbreak of COVID19 affect the importance of many predictors. Investors require extra return for bearing high failure risk of crypto assets. The return difference across high and low failure risk crypto assets is not explained by the market, size and momentum factors in the cryptocurrency market. Finally, investors benefit from diversifying into high failure risk crypto assets that is little correlated with the stock market.

Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines herd behavior in the cryptocurrency market using data of the top 15 large cryptocurrencies and the CCi30 Index as a proxy for market return. The idea that investors mimic and follow the behavior of others in the cryptocurrency market rather than conducting their own research has received attention in the finance literature. The CSAD results in the static model detected herding but given the existence of structural breakdowns and nonlinearities in the data series, we opted to conduct a rolling window analysis. The results indicate strong herding behavior that fluctuates over time. Furthermore, results from the logistic …

The Future Of Cryptocurrency And Blockchain Technology In Finance, Wanyi Wong, Alan @ Ali Madjelisi Megargel

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Cryptocurrencies have been all the rage in recent years, with many being drawn to their appeal as speculative investment assets. Its proponents also champion the secure and decentralised nature of the technology it is based on, called the blockchain. Given the secure nature of blockchain technology, the idea of adopting cryptocurrencies as legal tender currency has also been mooted and experimented with – with the most famous example being the Central American nation of El Salvador’s bold move to adopting the cryptocurrency Bitcoin as legal tender in September 2021. In theory, this would provide a solution to the high transaction …

Evolve Path Tracer: Early Detection Of Malicious Addresses In Cryptocurrency, Ling Cheng, Feida Zhu, Yong Wang, Ruicheng Liang, Huiwen Liu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

With the boom of cryptocurrency and its concomitant financial risk concerns, detecting fraudulent behaviors and associated malicious addresses has been drawing significant research effort. Most existing studies, however, rely on the full history features or full-fledged address transaction networks, both of which are unavailable in the problem of early malicious address detection and therefore failing them for the task. To detect fraudulent behaviors of malicious addresses in the early stage, we present Evolve Path Tracer, which consists of Evolve Path Encoder LSTM, Evolve Path Graph GCN, and Hierarchical Survival Predictor. Specifically, in addition to the general address features, we propose …

The Financialization Of Cryptocurrencies, Lei Huang, Tse-Chun Lin, Fangzhou Lu, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that change in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust premium is the single most significant predictor of Bitcoin daily return. This sentiment measure is similar to the closed-end fund discount measure as in Baker and Wurgler (2006), but more likely to reflect the excess demand from traditional investors than from blockchain specialists. Although there is a substantial variation in Bitcoin price quotes worldwide, this Grayscale premium and discount predict Bitcoin daily return for the most liquid Bitcoin exchanges. Using K-means clustering and LDA analysis, we find that this predictability is especially significant when there is a large variation in bullish and …

From Tether To Terra: The Current Stablecoin Ecosystem And The Failure Of Regulators, Mary E. Burke

Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law

The Tether controversy and Terra crash have placed stablecoins in the regulatory spotlight. Stablecoins are often portrayed as posing systemic risks to financial markets, with some pundits labelling them “the villain of the finance world.” Global regulatory bodies, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of International Settlement (BIS), and political leaders, including the Biden Administration, have all called for stablecoin regulation. These officials allege that stablecoins’ structure, combined with their exponential growth, pose a unique risk to global markets. Before the May 2022 Terra crash, government reports superficially treated stablecoins by exclusively focusing on asset-backed coins. Post …

Secure Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet Supporting Stealth Address, Xin Yin, Zhen Liu, Guomin Yang, Guoxing Chen, Haojin Zhu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Over the past decade, cryptocurrency has been undergoing a rapid development. Digital wallet, as the tool to store and manage the cryptographic keys, is the primary entrance for the public to access cryptocurrency assets. Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet (HDW), proposed in Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 32 (BIP32), has attracted much attention and been widely used in the community, due to its virtues such as easy backup/recovery, convenient cold-address management, and supporting trust-less audits and applications in hierarchical organizations. While HDW allows the wallet owner to generate and manage his keys conveniently, Stealth Address (SA) allows a payer to generate fresh address (i.e., …

When Will Cryptocurrency’S Winter Come To An End?, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

With the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies dropping dramatically, what is in store for the digital asset market?

The Cryptocurrency Participation Puzzle, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, Xi Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that ongoing zero portfolio weights in cryptocurrency are surprisingly difficult to generate in a standard Bayesian portfolio theory framework. With ten years of prior data, equity market investors would need very pessimistic priors on mean returns to justify never having bought cryptocurrency: -10.6% per month for Bitcoin, and -19.6% per month for a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, most priors that involve never purchasing cryptocurrency imply that investors should short cryptocurrency. Optimal absolute weights are generally small but non-trivial (1-5%), frequently positive, and fairly smooth despite returns being volatile. Under a wide range of priors, the certainty equivalent …

Cryptocurrencies: Now What?, Wei Zhou, Fathurraman

Perspectives@SMU

New use cases could lead to wider adoption, but regulation and the transition to Web3 must be handled first

Regulating The Fintech Space, Jing Yang, Patrick Thng, Zhu Juntao, Kell Jay Lim

Perspectives@SMU

China gets to grips with fintech but still frowns upon cryptocurrencies. Regulation, blockchain technology, and central bank digital currencies will be under the spotlight amidst the crypto crash

Is The Crypto World Having Its Own 2008 Lehman Brothers Moment?, Eric Lim

Perspectives@SMU

Cryptocurrency markets have tumbled in recent times due to the age-old story of greed, arrogance and disregard for responsibility, writes UNSW Business School’s Eric Lim

Coinbase Global Inc. Strategic Audit, Decker Bobin

Honors Theses

Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in the U.S during 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam. Coinbase’s application allows users to buy, sell, and exchange different cryptocurrencies on the open market. Cryptocurrencies are digital assets used as a medium to quickly transfer value, globally, without any middleman. Some cryptocurrencies have different technology than others, but all are based on blockchain, and cryptography. Blockchain technology allows transactions to be built into a chain that is forever accessible, hence the name “public ledger.” Cryptography is what ensures ultimate ownership, through seed phrases, and security through encryption. Coinbase has several large competitors …

Flight To Bitcoin, Yang Yu, Jinyuan Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper uncovers an overlooked motivation of Bitcoin investment: investors hold Bitcoin as an asset on which government authorities have limited influence. Consistent with this motivation, we document a flight-to-Bitcoin (FTB) phenomenon whereby local demand for Bitcoin increases with local economic policy uncertainties and Bitcoin ownership shifts from centralized exchanges to decentralized wallets amid such turbulence. FTB is driven by investors’ lack of confidence in government as FTB is stronger in countries where the confidence in government is low and corruption incidents surge. Finally, a comparison with safe-haven assets further differentiates FTB from flight-to-safety.

The Analysis Of The Roles Of Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Gold As Hedge And Safe-Haven Assets On The Indonesian Stock Market Before And During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Carla A. Wijaya, Maria Ulpah

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The uncertainty due to the COVID-19 outbreak has encouraged investors to look for value hedging instruments to minimize risk, which can be in the form of hedging assets or safe-haven assets. In response to it, this study aims to find out whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold can behave as hedging and safe-haven assets before and amid the pandemic in Indonesia. The strategy is by observing the effects of volatility and return of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold on the Indonesian stock market. This study employed both quantile regression and simple linear regression models on data of daily closing price taken before …

Should Cryptocurrency And Nft’S Be Used As Collateral?, John M. Helmanis

Honors Theses and Capstones

Nothing has captured the attention of modern finance quite like cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFT), whether it’s the massive skyrocketing price or the next day's sudden drop wiping out millions of dollars seemingly overnight. This paper seeks to understand cryptocurrencies and NFT's position in modern finance in terms of collateral. Specifically, the question that will be answered is should cryptocurrencies and NFTs be used as collateral? This question has relevance because widespread use as collateral would signify validation as an asset class that holds value. Some cryptocurrency brokers are making loans backed by cryptocurrency, but currently, no major banks are …

Modeling The Impact Of Adding Cryptocurrency In A Portfolio, Ashley Pineault

Honors Theses and Capstones

This study examines the backgrounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum. How they came about, where they differ from one another in functions, and what investors believe will be a better cryptocurrency stock as an investment to include in an optimized portfolio. It will also study the impact of adding two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, into a hypothetical, optimal investment portfolio. Data collection includes the adjusted closing price of 30 diversified stocks from 2016 to 2021. Those adjusted closing prices are the beginning of determining the optimal portfolio for three separate portfolios. One has the Ethereum cryptocurrencies, the other has Bitcoin …

The Volatility Implications Of The Chinese Cryptocurrency Ban, Keaton Manwaring

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this paper, I examine the effect of the May 18^th, 2021 Chinese ban of cryptocurrency transactions on the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market. To do this, I analyze, in both univariate and multivariate settings, range-based volatility in various event windows surrounding the event. I find clear economic and statistical change in volatility in the five days after the ban. In the ten-day period after the ban, there is a moderate economic change in volatility. In the forty-day period after the ban, there is little economic change in volatility. I conclude that the Chinese ban had a …

A Reexamination Of The Illiquidity Premium In Cryptocurrencies, Wyatt Fitz

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

In this study, I examine the illiquidity premium amongst the 372 most actively traded cryptocurrencies from September 2014 to May 2021. I find that the average returns on the most illiquid cryptocurrencies are larger than those on the most liquid cryptocurrencies. My results are robust to different weighting mechanisms for the market index and to various asset pricing model specifications. These results suggest that an investor might be able to go long a portfolio of illiquid cryptocurrencies while simultaneously shorting a portfolio of liquid cryptocurrencies to effectively generate a positive risk-adjusted return.

Cross-Cryptocurrency Return Predictability, Li Guo, Bo Sang, Jun Tu, Yu Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using the minute-frequency data on Binance, we find strong evidence of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability. The lagged returns of other cryptocurrencies serve as significant predictors of focal cryptocurrencies up to ten minutes, in line with slow information diffusion. The results are robust across various methods, including the adaptive LASSO and principal component analysis. Furthermore, a long-short portfolio formed on the past returns of cryptocurrencies can generate a daily return of 2.16% out-of-sample after accounting for transaction costs, indicating sizable economic value of cross-cryptocurrency return predictability.

Making Money From Cryptocurrency? The Taxman May Call On You, Hern Kuan Liu, Vincent Ooi

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

Miners, forgers, hobbyists, traders – different rules apply. Just don’t assume crypto investment is somehow immune to taxation.

Asia Embraces Digital Currency And Cryptocurrency, David Kuo Chen Lee

Asian Management Insights

A decade ago, everyone was sceptical about cryptocurrency. Today, Asian governments are harnessing its technology to raise payment efficiency and improve financial inclusion. Initially, the technology was advocated and harnessed by ‘cypherpunks’, that is, individuals who advocate the use of cryptography and other strong encryption technologies to promote social and political change. At that time, being a cypherpunk meant standing on the opposite side of the government; today, I see cypherpunks, otherwise more appropriately known as cryptopunks, working closely with governments.

Fall/Winter 2021

Business Exchange

Flexibility Is Our New Norm; $8 Million Bequest Supports Student Scholarships; Women in Entrepreneurship Institute Partnership Supports Business Founders of Color; College Named a Bloomberg Experiential Learning Partner; MacArthur Foundation Grant Supports Housing Research; Navigating the New Workplace Norms; Professor Introduces Students to Fintech Innovations; Accounting Graduate Brews Coffee Business with Soul

Bitcoin As A Viable Alternative To Legacy Reserve Assets: Reasons, Risks, And Adoption, Jeffry Blake Dunson Ii

Senior Honors Theses

Reserve assets include commodities, currencies, or other capital held by institutions as a hedge against the fluctuations of external factors. While the United States’ rise to power helped establish the US dollar as the most predominant reserve asset of the past fifty years, current events & the fast pace of technological advancement has exposed some limitations in the system. Blockchain technology has allowed for assets with cryptographically verifiable integrity that fundamentally depart from the US dollar standard and has potential to overhaul reserve assets as we know it. The course of this research details the downsides of legacy reserve assets, …

Bitcoin: The Pioneer Of Cryptocurrency With A Limited Dream, Anna M. Gellerman, Benjamin Zheng

Publications and Research

BitCoin is the most well known and adaptable cryptocurrency today. Due to the evolvement of the cryptocurrency market, many are thinking what this could mean for society; is the world ready for a new mainstream medium of exchange? This poster argues that although BitCoin is functional for small scale payments, it is inadaptable to become a payment tool comparable to cash and card.

The Budding Disruption Of Blockchain Technology Upon The Current Structure Of The Music Industry, Bradley Rauman

Senior Theses

One of the most pertinent opportunities within the music industry, and many other industries as well, stems from the use of blockchain technology. Blockchain’s core technology, which enables smart contracts and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), could be used to restructure and decentralize the music industry to be in alignment with the best interests of artists - the individuals responsible for driving the success of this industry.

The current system is outmoded. It evinces a disparity in the level of information held by artists and intermediaries (i.e. labels, publishers, and streaming services) and this disparity enables intermediaries to deduct egregious fees that …

Traceable Monero: Anonymous Cryptocurrency With Enhanced Accountability, Yannan Li, Guomin Yang, Wily Susilo, Yong Yu, Man Ho Au, Dongxi Liu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Monero provides a high level of anonymity for both users and their transactions. However, many criminal activities might be committed with the protection of anonymity in cryptocurrency transactions. Thus, user accountability (or traceability) is also important in Monero transactions, which is unfortunately lacking in the current literature. In this paper, we fill this gap by introducing a new cryptocurrency named Traceable Monero to balance the user anonymity and accountability. Our framework relies on a tracing authority, but is optimistic, in that it is only involved when investigations in certain transactions are required. We formalize the system model and security model …

Rise Of The Machines? Intraday High-Frequency Trading Patterns Of Cryptocurrencies, Alla A Petukhina, Raphael C. G. Reule, Wolfgang Karl Hardle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

This research analyses high-frequency data of the cryptocurrency market in regards to intraday trading patterns related to algorithmic trading and its impact on the European cryptocurrency market. We study trading quantitatives such as returns, traded volumes, volatility periodicity, and provide summary statistics of return correlations to CRIX (CRyptocurrency IndeX), as well as respective overall high-frequency based market statistics with respect to temporal aspects. Our results provide mandatory insight into a market, where the grand scale employment of automated trading algorithms and the extremely rapid execution of trades might seem to be a standard based on media reports. Our findings on …