Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Characteristics Based Factor Models - Comparison Of Estimation Procedures, Henri Ohl

McKelvey School of Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Understanding cross-sectional and time series variation of asset returns is fundamental in finance, particularly in asset pricing. This thesis explores the integration of factor theory with machine learning to deepen our comprehension of these dynamics. Characteristics based factor models offer a systematic framework for quantifying an asset's underlying risk-return structure, leveraging time-varying conditional information on model parameters carried by firm-specific characteristics. These models serve as valuable tools for discerning the driving components of an asset's expected excess return. Recent research established a novel methodology for consistent parameter estimation within this framework, only requiring a large cross-section but not a long …

What Difference Do The New Factor Models Make In Portfolio Allocation?, Frank J. Fabozzi, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jiexun Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper compares the Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model with the Fama-French five-factor model from an investing perspective both in- and out-of-sample. Without margin requirements and model uncertainty, the Hou-Xue-Zhang model outperforms the Fama-French model. However, the outperformance could become negligible if an investor is subject to margin requirements and model uncertainty. The Hou-Xue-Zhang model shows similar power as the Fama-French model in describing the covariance matrix of asset returns. Overall, the two models do not make a difference for investing in a realistic setting.

A Better Model? Testing Of Fama And French Six-Factor Model In Pakistan, Mehak Younus

Business Review

This study examines the performance of the Fama and French six factor model and the alternative six-factor model in explaining anomalous return patterns using a broad sample of the Pakistani stock market from 2000 to 2017. This study is the first to test the applicability of these models in Pakistan and their performance in explaining anomalous returns. There are 11 anomalies taken, which proved to be significant in the Pakistani market. The GRS test is used with other time-series measures to check the power of the given models in explaining one-way sorted quintile portfolios. The results reveal that both models …

The Hotelling Valuation Principle: Does User Cost And Reserve Differentials Improve Validity?, Brian K. Hicks

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Hotelling Valuation Principal (HVP) implies that the value per unit of an in-ground exhaustible natural resource is equal to the current price less the cost of production. The assumptions required for this principle include a certain and homogenous reserve stock, unconstrained extraction, and constant costs. Extensive research has empirically investigated the HVP. This paper expands the HVP framework and relaxes the theory’s assumptions to account for reserve differentials. The results show that the original net price model is more closely aligned with developed reserve value, than total reserve value. In addition, this paper develops two- and three-factor net price …

Stock Market Information And Security Prices, Haoyuan Li

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Chapter 1: Analyst report content and stock market anomalies A series of recent papers document that security analyst recommendations tend to contradict stock-mispricing signals. This seems at odds with the large prior literature on the investment value of analyst recommendations. What justifications do analysts make when they write reports on mispriced stocks? I use the latest techniques in machine learning and textual analysis to categorize the qualitative information in a large sample of analyst reports. I find that report content can be intuitively classified into five categories or topics: 1) Growth, 2) Earnings, 3) New developments, 4) Management transactions, and …

Surplus Consumption, Habit Utility And Moody Investors, Jun Lou

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The thesis examines a blend of Asset Pricing topics: joint stock-bond pricing, consumption-based asset pricing puzzles, time variation in risk preference, among others. In chapter one, I first review the literature on respective topics in search of a consolidated framework of resolution. I then propose one, a consumption-based affine model that jointly prices bond and stock in closed form. The tractable feature of the price solutions remains standard as in affine termstructure of interest rates, but presents novelty for the stock prices. In chapter two, I discuss the GMM based procedures for model estimation. In chapter three, I interpret the …

Upper Bounds On Return Predictability, Dashan Huang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Can the degree of predictability found in data be explained by existing asset pricing models? We provide two theoretical upper bounds on the R² of predictive regressions. Using data on the market portfolio and component portfolios, we find that the empirical R² are significantly greater than the theoretical upper bounds. Our results suggest that the most promising direction for future research should aim to identify new state variables that are highly correlated with stock returns instead of seeking more elaborate stochastic discount factors.

Cash Flow News, Discount Rate News, And Momentum, Umut Celiker, Nuri Volkan Kayacetin, Raman Kumar, Gokhan Sonaer

Business Faculty Publications

We examine the effect of aggregate cash flow news and discount rate news on momentum returns. We find that momentum profits are higher following aggregate positive cash flow news, even in down markets or low sentiment periods. This finding expands on the evidence in Cooper et al. (2004) that momentum is significant only when past market returns are non-negative and in Antoniou et al. (2013) that momentum is weaker when sentiment is pessimistic. We find that the higher momentum profits during aggregate positive cash flow news periods are primarily driven by the losers continuing to underperform in subsequent periods. Our …

Asset Pricing With Financial Bubble Risk, Ji Hyung Lee, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper characterizes systematic risk stemming from the possible occurrence of price bubbles and measures the impact of this additional risk factor on asset prices. Historical stock market behavior and recent empirical experience have led economists and policy makers to acknowledge that price bubbles in financial markets do occur and need to be accounted for in risk analysis. New econometric tools for analyzing mildly explosive behavior (Phillips and Magdalinos, 2007; Phillips et al., 2011) have made it possible to detect the presence of bubbles in data and to date stamp their origination and collapse, providing empirical confirmation of such episodes …

Essays On Investor Attention, Hongqi Liu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that examine investor attention and its impact on corporate events and asset prices using a Google search-based measure of investor attention.

Chapter 1 This chapter investigates investor attention patterns and its determinants. I document that investor attention displays strong seasonality. It is significantly lower on Fridays and in summer months. I find that investor attention increases significantly following earnings announcements and macro news releases, and the effect is stronger for large firms. When faced with both firm-specific and market-wide information shocks, investors’ attention response to firm-specific information attenuates and their trading behavior is also …

Two Essays On Investor Attention And Asset Pricing, Nadia Asmaa Nafar

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation explores the effect of investor attention, as measured by Google Search Volume Index, on security prices. It seeks to answer the following research questions: 1) what is the effect of investor attention on the expected returns of EREITs? And 2) what is the impact of investor attention on the open market repurchases post announcement returns?

Classic theory suggests that information is immediately incorporated into stock prices. However, existing empirical evidence shows that investors are limited in terms of the amount of information they can process. Kahneman (1973) advances that attention is a scarce cognitive resource. Individuals suffer from …

Industry-Based Style Investing, Russell Jame, Qing Tong

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Motivated by the style investing model of Barberis and Shleifer (2003), we examine the industry-wide investment decisions of retail investors. We find that retail investor industry demand is highly correlated and strongly related to past industry returns. Moreover, industries heavily bought by retail investors over the past year significantly underperform industries heavily sold over the subsequent year. Similarly, stocks in industries heavily bought by retail investors underperform stocks in industries heavily sold, even after controlling for firm-level demand. Our results suggest that industry-wide categorization influences the investment decisions of retail investors and has a significant impact on asset prices.

Liquidity, Governance And Adverse Selection In Asset Pricing, Sascha Strobl

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

A plethora of recent literature on asset pricing provides plenty of empirical evidence on the importance of liquidity, governance and adverse selection of equity on pricing of assets together with more traditional factors such as market beta and the Fama-French factors. However, literature has usually stressed that these factors are priced individually. In this dissertation we argue that these factors may be related to each other, hence not only individual but also joint tests of their significance is called for.

In the three related essays, we examine the liquidity premium in the context of the finer three-digit SIC industry classification, …

Income Inequality And Stock Pricing In The U.S. Market, Minh T. Nguyen

Lawrence University Honors Projects

In this research, the effect of income inequality as measured by the share of national income going to the wealthiest 10% of the nation in the U.S. is assessed for its significance at explaining stock returns in the U.S from 1927 to 2012. Income inequality has always been an important economic indicator and it has the potential to become one of the fundamental sources of risk that affect stock prices. By utilizing the Fama-French three-factor model, this research obtains the inequality beta coefficient, and the inequality risk premium. In turn, the findings of this research suggest the existence of a …

Are Retail Investors The Culprits? Evidence From Australian Individual Stock Price Bubbles, Julia Henker, Thomas Henker

Thomas Henker

We address the question of whether the trading of retail investors causes stock price anomalies. Our intent is to study settings in which retail investors are most likely to have influence on market prices. Previous research suggests that retail investors have more influence in small capitalization stocks, and argues that retail investors are most likely to be irrational. Most theories of stock price anomalies hypothesize the presence of irrational traders. Consequently, we focus on stock price anomalies in primarily small capitalization stocks. Our data are from the Australian Stock Exchange Clearinghouse. The Australian stock market is characterized by a high …

P/E Changes: Some New Results, Thomas S. Zorn, Donna M. Dudney, Benjamas Jirasakuldech

Department of Finance: Faculty Publications

The P/E ratio is often used as a metric to compare individual stocks and the market as a whole relative to historical valuations. We examine the factors that affect changes in the inverse of the P/E ratio (E/P) over time in the broad market (S&P 500 Index). Our model includes variables that measure investor beliefs and changes in tax rates and shows that these variables are important factors affecting the P/E ratio. We extend prior work by correcting for the presence of a long-run relation between variables included in the model. As frequently conjectured, changes in the P/E ratio have …

Market Segmentation, Liquidity Spillover, And Closed-End Country Fund Discounts, Sai Pang (Justin) Chan, Ravi Jain, Yihong Xia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a segmented international capital market, the illiquidity of a country fund in the market in which its shares are traded affects only the share price of the fund (S), while the illiquidity of its underlying assets in the market in which these are traded affects only the fund net asset value (NAV). In an integrated market, illiquidity in one market can easily spill over to another and affect both the fund share price and its underlying asset value. It follows that the closed-end country fund premium, P[reverse not equivalent]ln(S)-ln(NAV), is negatively (positively) affected by the fund (underlying asset) illiquidity …

A Tale Of Two Prices: Liquidity And Asset Prices In Multiple Markets, Justin Sai Pang Chan, Dong Hong, Marti G. Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper investigates the liquidity effect in asset pricing by studying the liquidity-premium relationship of an American depositary receipt (ADR) and its underlying share. Using the [Amihud, Yakov, 2002. Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time series effects. Journal of Financial Markets 5, 31-56] measure, the turnover ratio and trading infrequency as proxies for liquidity, we show that a higher ADR premium is associated with higher ADR liquidity and lower home share liquidity, in terms of changes in these variables. We find that the liquidity effects remain strong after we control for firm size and a number of country characteristics, …