Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Financial Statement Analysis Project: "The Big Simulation", Luna Y. Goldblatt, Joao Q. Chaves, Andrew M. Landman, Salmin B. Mwinjuma, Braden C. Vitelli

Open Educational Resources

This project uses real-world financial statements (for Best Buy Co. Inc. and Nvidia Corporation) and creates a role-playing game where students can choose to be one of 4 capital market participants: an innovator that designs a brand-new accounting system, a company that prepares its best version of financial statements, an investor that chooses its ideal portfolio stocks, and a forensic accountant that looks for evidence of earnings management. The project helps student learn to conduct financial statement analysis and appreciate the impact of these statements on company financial ratios and capital market performance.

The Impacts Of Covid-19 On Capital Structure Determinants Of Hotel Real Estate Investment Trusts, Marcos Medeiros, Nan Hua, Youcheng Wang

Journal of Hospitality Financial Management

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are responsible for more than seventy-five percent of the hotel ownership structure in the USA. The effects of COVID-19 restrictions on hotel REITs were devastating due to the unpredictability of revenues and cash flows, directly impacting managerial decisions on how to adapt REITs' capital structure quickly. This paper used quarterly hotel REIT financial data of the 18 most representative U.S. H-REITs from January 2015 through December 2020 to understand the moderating effects of COVID-19 on hotel REITs' capital structure determinants. Analyzing a panel data of 472 observations, this study found robust empirical evidence that confirms …

Responsible Hedge Funds, Hao Liang, Lin Sun, Song Wee Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge funds that endorse the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) underperform other hedge funds after adjusting for risk but attract greater investor flows, accumulate more assets, and harvest greater fee revenues. Consistent with an agency explanation, the underperformance is driven by PRI signatories with low environmental, social, and governance (ESG) exposures and is greater for hedge funds with poor incentive alignment. To address endogeneity, we exploit regulatory reforms that enhance stewardship and show that the ESG exposure and relative performance of signatory funds improve post reforms. Our findings suggest that some hedge funds endorse responsible investment to pander …

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Fall 2022, Scott Deacle, Maureen Cumpstone, Jess Gutekunst, Michael Magargee

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this issue:

At a Glance

Letter from Jessica Gutekunst '23

Letter from Michael Magargee '23

Investment Team Strategies and Updates

UCIMCO Investment Performance and Analysis

Endowment Outlook

Stock Selection Picks

Women's Fund Picks

Our Teams

Thank You!

How to Contribute

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Endowment

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Stock Selection

Three Essays On Climate Finance And Machine Learning In Financial Studies, Huan Kuang

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation focuses on climate finance and explore how to incorporate machine learning techniques into financial research. In the first chapter, we focus on climate innovation. Through a novel design to link climate risk and the U.S. firm patents related to climate change mitigation technologies (CCMTs), we find that CCMT innovations generate significant economic value. These innovations are effective in mitigating firms’ carbon risk. We also find that adoption of a new patent classification scheme has promoted more CCMT innovations in the United States. However, we find mixed evidence on firms’ carbon risk and their CCMT innovation activities. Our work …

Essays On Performance Evaluation Of Portfolio Managers Of Mutual And Hedge Funds, Yuekun Liu

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays focusing on the performance evaluation of portfolio managers of mutual and hedge funds. The first essay shows the performance of corporate bond mutual funds tends to be estimated using models with limited empirical validation. I test several models and find considerable variation in quality. That variation leads to meaningful differences with respect to the stylized facts of corporate bond fund performance. Using my preferred BENCH4 model—a novel model based on funds’ common benchmarks—I find average underperformance, substantial relative performance persistence, a small number of funds with positive alphas unattributable to luck, and positive alphas …

Do Analysts’ Eps Forecasts Obey Benford’S Law? An Empirical Analysis, Clarence Goh

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Benford’s law gives the expected frequencies of digits in tabulated data. In this study, I investigate the extent to which a sample of analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts obey Benford’s law. I conduct Benford’s law’s second digit and last-two digits tests on a sample of analyst EPS forecasts of S&P 500 firms from 1998 to 2018. Overall, I find that analysts’ EPS forecasts obey Benford’s law’s second digit test but do not obey the last-two digits test. These findings suggest that while analysts do not engage in number invention, they do engage in rounding when making EPS forecasts.

Do Alpha Males Deliver Alpha? Facial Width-To-Height Ratio And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

An abundance of evidence relates facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) to masculine behaviors in males. We show that hedge funds operated by high-fWHR managers underperform those operated by low-fWHR managers, bear greater downside risk, are more susceptible to fire sales, and fail more often. High-fWHR managers compensate for their underperformance by marketing their funds more aggressively, thereby garnering higher flows and fee revenues. By exploiting major personal events that shape testosterone, namely marriage and fatherhood, we trace the biological mechanism underlying the relation between fWHR and investment performance to circulating testosterone. Our findings are robust and extend to equity mutual funds.

Information Acquisition And Expected Returns: Evidence From Edgar Search Traffic, Frank Weikai Li, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines expected return information embedded in investors' information acquisition activity. Using a novel dataset containing investors' access of company filings through SEC's EDGAR system, we reverse engineer their expectations over future payoffs and show that the abnormal number of IPs searching for firms' financial statements strongly predict future returns. The return predictability stems from investors allocating more effort to firms with improving fundamentals and following exogeneous shock to underpricing. A long-short portfolio based on our measure of information acquisition activity generate monthly abnormal return of 80 basis points and does not reverse over the long-run.. In addition, the …

Analyzing The Relationship Between Return And Trading Volume In Relation To Cross-Sectional Absolute Deviation (Csad) In Order To Detect Herding Behavior In Indonesia Emerging Stock Market, Helma Malini, Annisa Dipa Sakliana

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

Investor herding behavior is a primary source of speculative bubbles since it implies that investors make identical trading decisions, which can lead to stock prices deviating from their underlying worth. The goal of this study is to detect herding behavior in the Indonesian stock market between 2016 and 2021. The relationship between return and trading volume, known as Cross Sectional Absolute Deviation, is used to assess herding behavior (CSAD). Time-series regression and quantile regression analysis will be employed as data analytic techniques in this study to investigate herding behavior under various market scenarios. Herding behavior is evident in the Indonesian …

Indonesian Capital Market Reaction To Jakarta’S Large Scale Social Restrictions, Nur Wahyu Catur Wicaksono, Y. Anni Aryani, Doddy Setiawan

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study aims to analyze the Indonesian capital market reaction to the Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) policy in Jakarta in 2020. The findings from this study can be used as a policy evaluation and as a reference to assess similar future policies to be implemented in Jakarta. Four event periods were used based on the number of times this policy was implemented in 2020. Using the event study approach and single index model method, this study used 568 companies listed on the IDX which are then divided into nine sectors. The results of this study showed that the Indonesian capital …

The Existence Of Indonesian Islamic Market Stocks During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Febryna Rizka Pratiwi, Nur Fatwa Dr.

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

When the first Covid-19 case entered Indonesia, Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) underwent a very deep correction until it reached its lowest point in the last decade, from the level of 6,300 to the level of 3,975 as of March 24, 2020. But, an interesting fact in the following months the JCI consistently rose, and even managed to break back above the 6000 level in the period from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021. Indonesia has again won the nomination for the category 'The Best Islamic Capital Market 2020' from the Global Islamic Finance Awards (GIFA). The growth …

The Additional Burden Of The Bank Security Act On Community Banks In States With Casinos, Danielle Lewis

Southern University College of Business E-Journal

Deeply embedded compliance costs are difficult to account. We modeled non-interest expenses using all U.S. community banks and found the 2001 USA Patriot Act increased the compliance burdens, but particularly for banks with casinos in their state. Changes in policy pertaining to the Bank Secrecy Act include Congress modernizing the BSA provisions because the rules leave excessive room for interpretation and subjectivity across examiners and courts. Additionally, a publication showing the effectiveness of BSA reporting could benefit bankers and help make compliance more cost efficient.

Coinbase Global Inc. Strategic Audit, Decker Bobin

Honors Theses

Coinbase is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in the U.S during 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam. Coinbase’s application allows users to buy, sell, and exchange different cryptocurrencies on the open market. Cryptocurrencies are digital assets used as a medium to quickly transfer value, globally, without any middleman. Some cryptocurrencies have different technology than others, but all are based on blockchain, and cryptography. Blockchain technology allows transactions to be built into a chain that is forever accessible, hence the name “public ledger.” Cryptography is what ensures ultimate ownership, through seed phrases, and security through encryption. Coinbase has several large competitors …

Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective, Ekkehart Boehmer, Zsuzsa R. Huszar, Yanchu Wang, Xiaoyan Zhang, Xinran Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using multiple short-sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market. Our results display significant cross-country and cross-firm differences in the predictive power of alternative short-sale measures. The predictive power of shorts is stronger in countries with nonprohibitive short sale regulations and for stocks with relatively low liquidity, high shorting fees, and low price efficiency.

Risk-Return Dynamics Using Leveraged Etf Options, Eliza Wampler

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study uses barbell strategies on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 to explore if funds invested primarily in fixed income assets with a portion of the investment placed in in-the-money call options can participate in upside potential, while also reducing risk. This study examines call options on the underlying indexes as well as their leveraged, 2x and 3x, counterparts. The barbell strategy studied, 88% in fixed income bonds and 12% in call options, does not have a higher return than the underlying index, and adds additional risk. However, a weighted portfolio with combinations of a risk-free asset and …

Market Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings: Evidence Prior To The Global Financial Crisis Of 2007-2009, Charlie Charoenwong, Kuan Yong David Ding, Ping Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Since the adoption of the SEC’s Rule 10b-21 in 1988, many researchers have been concerned over the effectiveness of short sales constraints in preventing manipulative trading in the derivatives market. We analyze whether options can be used as synthetic short sale instruments to manipulate stock prices before a seasoned equity offer. Due to the existence of strict short sales constraints in the equity market and market makers’ anticipation of manipulative trading, it would be very costly for a manipulator to drive stock prices down artificially either by short selling in the equity market or by using synthetic short sales in …

Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …

Non-Gaap Earnings And Stock Price Crash Risk, Charles Hsu, Rencheng Wang, Benjamin C. Whipple

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

We investigate whether non-GAAP earnings disclosures increase stock price crash risk. Consistent with non-GAAP disclosures allowing managers to inflate investors' perceptions about firm performance, our results indicate that income increasing non-GAAP reporting increases crash risk. We also find that managers can use non-GAAP reporting as a substitute for earnings management to withhold bad news from investors (the traditional explanation for crashes). Finally, we find a positive association between non-GAAP reporting and the likelihood of subsequent events that can trigger a crash. Overall, our evidence is consistent with some non-GAAP disclosures exposing investors to risks of large and sudden price declines.(c) …

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Spring 2022, Scott Deacle, Olivia Defusco, Peyton Vostenak, Stephen Schoenborn, Stevie Benson, Jake Rowland, Jeremy Calabro

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this issue:

Letter from Olivia DeFusco '24

Letter from Peyton Vostenak '22

At a Glance

Investment Team Strategies and Updates

UCIMCO Research

UCIMCO Investment Performance and Analysis

Endowment Outlook

Stock Selection Picks

Women's Fund Picks

Our Teams

Thank You!

How to Contribute

Expected Return, Volume, And Mispricing, Yufeng Han, Dashan Huang, Dayong Huang, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that expected return is related to trading volume positively among underpriced stocks but negatively among overpriced stocks. As such, trading volume amplifies mispricing. Our results are robust to alternative mispricing and trading volume measures, alternative portfolio formation methods, and controlling for variables that are known to have amplification effects on mispricing. By attributing trading volume to investor disagreement, we show that our results are consistent with the recent theoretical model of Atmaz and Basak (2018) in that investor disagreement predicts stock returns conditional on expectation bias.

Race And Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We find that minority operated funds deliver higher alphas, Sharpe ratios, and information ratios than do non-minority operated funds. Moreover, minority fund managers attended more selective schools, worked at higher status investment banks, and are more likely to hold post-graduate degrees. Yet, minority managers raise less start-up capital and attract lower investor flows. Racial homophily fuels investors' appetite for non-minority funds. To address endogeneity, we leverage on an event study of minority manager fund transitions and an instrumental variable analysis that exploits racial imprinting during childhood. The results suggest that minorities face significant barriers to entry in the hedge fund …

Uncertainty And Banks’ Security Holdings, Van Dan Dang, Hoang Chung Nguyen

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The paper enriches the existing literature on financial intermediaries’ operations in the face of uncertainty by empirically examining the impact of banking uncertainty on banks’ security holdings. Using bank-level data in Vietnam during 2007–2019 to compute a micro uncertainty proxy based on the dispersion of bank shocks, we document that banking uncertainty tends to enhance total security holdings at banks. Decomposing aggregate securities into disaggregate components, we find that safer investments (including government bonds and financial institution bonds) dominate the overall impact of banking uncertainty on security holdings, which completely offset a drop in the volume of riskier investments (including …

The Impact Of Geopolitical Risk On Corporate Investment: Evidence From Turkish Firms, Omer Faruk Tan, Hakan Cavlak, Yasin Cebeci, Necati Güneş

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study analyzes the effects of geopolitical risk on the corporate investment of 164 Turkish manufacturing firms listed in Borsa Istanbul (BIST). The time covers the period from 2005 to 2019, applying the system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that geopolitical risk hurts corporate investment in Turkey. Under uncertainty induced by geographical risk, firms prefer to decline their investment. Additionally, financially constrained (non-dividend, small, young) firms are more negatively affected than financially unconstrained firms. Our findings are robust under alternative measures of geopolitical risk. Overall, this study reveals that geopolitical risk is a significant uncertainty affecting …

The Analysis Of The Roles Of Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Gold As Hedge And Safe-Haven Assets On The Indonesian Stock Market Before And During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Carla A. Wijaya, Maria Ulpah

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The uncertainty due to the COVID-19 outbreak has encouraged investors to look for value hedging instruments to minimize risk, which can be in the form of hedging assets or safe-haven assets. In response to it, this study aims to find out whether Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold can behave as hedging and safe-haven assets before and amid the pandemic in Indonesia. The strategy is by observing the effects of volatility and return of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold on the Indonesian stock market. This study employed both quantile regression and simple linear regression models on data of daily closing price taken before …

Monetary Policy And Herding Behavior: Empirical Evidence From Indonesia Stock Market, Retno Puspita K. Wicaksono, Telisa Aulia Falianty

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study aims to analyze the role of monetary policy, including the spillover of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy, in the existence of herding behavior in the Indonesian stock market. We used beta herding to measure the level of herding behavior and analyze the relationship between monetary policy and beta herding using the VECM model, as well as IRF and FEVD. This study shows that monetary policy plays a role in the existence of herding behavior in the Indonesian stock market. Although the effect of monetary policy on herding behavior is relatively small, Fed monetary policy shocks have …

Modeling The Impact Of Adding Cryptocurrency In A Portfolio, Ashley Pineault

Honors Theses and Capstones

This study examines the backgrounds of Bitcoin and Ethereum. How they came about, where they differ from one another in functions, and what investors believe will be a better cryptocurrency stock as an investment to include in an optimized portfolio. It will also study the impact of adding two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, into a hypothetical, optimal investment portfolio. Data collection includes the adjusted closing price of 30 diversified stocks from 2016 to 2021. Those adjusted closing prices are the beginning of determining the optimal portfolio for three separate portfolios. One has the Ethereum cryptocurrencies, the other has Bitcoin …

Concept Links And Return Momentum, Qianqian Du, Dawei Liang, Zilin Chen, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Unlike traditional asset categories (e.g., industry classifications) that are generally defined clearly, some groups of stocks are tied to certain loosely defined “concepts” (e.g., e-commerce). When investors find it difficult to analyze ambiguous concept-oriented information, information diffuses slowly, creating “concept momentum”. Based on unique concept data in the Chinese stock market, this study constructs a concept-momentum strategy that involves buying stocks from past winning concepts and selling stocks from past losing concepts, which can generate pronounced abnormal returns. Neither risk factors, firm-level momentum, nor industry-level momentum can explain concept momentum. Furthermore, we find that both the underreaction and cross-stock lead-lag …

Securing The Overnight Rates: A Study Of Alternative Reference Rates In Illiquid Overnight Tri-Party Repo Markets, Michael Murphy

CMC Senior Theses

Since 2011, the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) has been on the way out for practitioners and researchers alike due to its manipulation in key bank quotes during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). This paper intends to examine key rates being introduced as LIBOR substitutes, such as SOFR, BSBY, and Ameribor. Specific to its concern, the paper will back test these rates during times of illiquidity in both their respective markets and the broader financial markets to determine which rates will be able to sustain an abnormal drop in transaction volumes. Furthermore, this paper will try to determine whether a …

Co-Jumps, Co-Jump Tests, And Volatility Forecasting: Monte Carlo And Empirical Evidence, Weijia Peng, Chun Yao

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study classifies jumps into idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps to quantitatively identify systematic risk and idiosyncratic risk by utilizing high-frequency data. We found that systematic risk occurs more frequently and has larger magnitudes than the idiosyncratic risk in an individual asset, which indicates that volatilities from one sector are largely derived from the contagious effect of other sectors. We further investigated the importance of idiosyncratic jumps and co-jumps to predict the sector-level S&P500 exchange-traded fund (ETF) volatility. It was found that the predictive content of co-jumps is higher than that of idiosyncratic jumps, suggesting that systematic risk is more informative …