Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Siphoned Apart: A Portfolio Perspective On Order Flow Segmentation, Markus Baldauf, Joshua Mollner, Bart Zhou Yueshen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study liquidity supply in fragmented markets. Market makers intermediate heterogeneous order flows, trading off spread revenue against inventory costs. Applying our model to payment for order flow (PFOF), we demonstrate that portfolio-based considerations of inventory management incentivize market makers to segment retail orders by siphoning them off-exchange. Banning order flow segmentation reduces total welfare, can make trading more costly for all investors, and can resolve a prisoner's dilemma among market makers. These results differentiate our inventory-based model from the existing information-based theories of PFOF.

Investing In Climate: A Role For 'Sovereign Climate Funds', Marianna Kozintseva, Thierry Wizman

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Efforts to address climate change have generally been focused on deploying mitigation technologies. However, it is adaptation technologies (and climate risk transfer) that will have to gain an increasing share of an investment pool dedicated to climate if human systems are to stay resilient to climate forces. Just like mitigation projects, adaptation projects have a strong public goods aspect, wherein public returns exceed private returns, and thus call for the state’s involvement. We argue that sovereign climate funds (SCFs) - new types of sovereign wealth funds with a climate investment mandate - can be critical purpose-built conduits especially for undertaking …

Diverse Hedge Funds, Yan Lu, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedge fund teams with heterogeneous educational backgrounds, academic specializations, work experiences, genders, and races, outperform homogeneous teams after adjusting for risk and fund characteristics. An event study of manager team transitions, instrumental variable regressions, and an analysis of managers who simultaneously operate solo- and team-managed funds address endogeneity concerns. Diverse teams deliver superior returns by arbitraging more stock anomalies, avoiding behavioral biases, and minimizing downside risks. Moreover, diversity allows hedge funds to circumvent capacity constraints and generate persistent performance. Our results suggest that diversity adds value in asset management. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the …

What Difference Do The New Factor Models Make In Portfolio Allocation?, Frank J. Fabozzi, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Jiexun Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper compares the Hou-Xue-Zhang four-factor model with the Fama-French five-factor model from an investing perspective both in- and out-of-sample. Without margin requirements and model uncertainty, the Hou-Xue-Zhang model outperforms the Fama-French model. However, the outperformance could become negligible if an investor is subject to margin requirements and model uncertainty. The Hou-Xue-Zhang model shows similar power as the Fama-French model in describing the covariance matrix of asset returns. Overall, the two models do not make a difference for investing in a realistic setting.

Bio-Bust: Investigating Biotech Stock Factors Contributing To Abnormal Returns In The Wake Of Silicon Valley Bank's Failure, Spencer Kent

CMC Senior Theses

Following the unprecedented collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, this study explores abnormal stock price reactions within the biotechnology sector. As the chosen financial institution for countless Silicon Valley-type technology and healthcare firms, SVB's failure had a profound impact on small to mid-sized biotech companies. Analyzing a dataset of 180 biotech firms during a two-day event window over SVB’s collapse, I investigate whether exposure to SVB, or other factors, was the primary contributor to negative abnormal stock price reactions, considering variables such as the percentage of cash held at SVB, whether a firm maintained an active SVB …

Market Reaction Test On Banks & Brokers Based On Bitcoin Price History. A Look At National Commercial Banks And Security Broker, Exchanges, And Service Stocks Following The Most Volatile Swings In Bitcoin’S Price., Payton Earl

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines if there is an inverse correlation between Bitcoin’s most volatile price swings and national commercial banks and security brokers, exchanges and service companies performance. Company performance in the dataset is measured by Cumulative Abnormal Returns during 2021 within a two-day period where Bitcoin has had the most significant uptick and downtick events. Using a market-adjusted model for my regression, it is concluded that Bitcoin’s largest uptick event did indeed have an inversely negative effect on traditional banks and trading securities companies, as the Cumulative Abnormal Returns were negative for my 107 observations and the event was statistically …

Derivatives And Market (Il)Liquidity, Shiyang Huang, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Cheng Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how derivatives (with nonlinear payoffs) affect the underlying assets liquidity. In a rational expectations equilibrium, informed investors expect low conditional volatility and sell derivatives to the others. These derivative trades affect different investors utility differently, possibly amplifying liquidity risk. As investors delta hedge their derivative positions, price impact in the underlying drops, suggesting improved liquidity, because informed trading is diluted. In contrast, effects on price reversal are ambiguous, depending on investors relative delta hedging sensitivity, i.e., the gamma of the derivatives. The model cautions of potential disconnections between illiquidity measures and liquidity risk premium due to derivatives trading.

Evaluating The Performance Of Real Estate Exchange-Traded Funds, Davinder K. Malhotra

School of Business Faculty Papers

This study examines the net monthly returns of real estate exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through various performance evaluation models and market situations. The results reveal that these ETFs generated positive alphas and outperformed benchmark indices in absolute returns. However, their performance varied across market conditions, demonstrating both outperformance and underperformance compared to U.S. and global stocks. During the COVID-19 pandemic, real estate ETFs displayed a decline, trailing behind U.S. and global equities in both absolute returns and risk-adjusted performance. This emphasized their vulnerability during economic crises. Utilizing the Carhart four-factor model, significant exposure of real estate ETFs to the stock market …

Does The Presence Of Foreign Investors Affect Financial Reporting Quality In Philippine Publicly Listed Firms?, Natasha Amber Y. Cabiltes, Megan Justine Siao Beltran, John Miguel Roger Dela Cruz Benito, Gianna Zenovia Domingo Agaton, Mariel Monica R. Sauler, Angelo A. Unite

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Reinstate accounting conservatism in the Conceptual Framework – Our findings should be of interest to accounting standard setters, given the ongoing debate on the necessity for accounting conservatism as a characteristic for useful financial statements after its initial removal from the conceptual framework in 2010. While there are arguments that conservatism violates the neutrality of financial reports, further discussions show that conservatism can give a more faithful representation of firm performance (Cooper, 2015; International Accounting Standards Board, 2018).

Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …

Is Anti-Herding Always A Smart Choice? Evidence From Mutual Funds, John Byong-Tek Lee, Jun Ma, Dimitris Margaritis, Wanyi Yang

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

Recent empirical studies document a negative relation between herding behaviour and the skill of mutual fund managers. We explore this relationship further by focusing on fund managers' contrarian buy and sell behaviour against the market. Our study reveals an asymmetry in the performance of mutual funds with contrarian buy behaviour and contrarian sell behaviour. The contrarian-buy behaviour reflects skill by positively predicting the cross-section of next period's mutual fund returns, while the contrarian-sell behaviour reflects a lack of skill associated with a negative prediction. These findings are robust to various risk-adjusted performance measures. Contrarian-buy funds outperform momentum-buy funds by 3% …

Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The authors find that a simple heuristic of sorting liquid equity options by dollar price to construct a portfolio of cheap put options leads to a surprisingly robust hedge for tail risk – the superior performance holds even when compared against more advanced empirical strategies. Further investigation reveals the asymmetry in market correlation under different market conditions as the mechanism of this robust hedging performance. The cheap options selected by the heuristic comprises of stocks with diverse firm characteristics. The correlation spike accompanying tail risk events leads to the majority of these put options moving into-the-money (ITM), thus compensating the …

Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Jeremy C. Goh, Lisa (Zongfei) Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We confirm prior evidence that bonds on average are offered at prices below their immediate post-offer secondary market prices. However, in cases where banks lead–manage their own bond offerings the underpricing is significantly less as compared with other non-self-marketed offerings. These findings are robust across various matched samples and selection models. Our results suggest that the bond offering process is characterized by substantive agency conflicts between shareholders of corporations (issuers) and underwriters.

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Fall 2023, Kaela Frenchman, Olivia Defusco, Jack Thompson

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this issue:

At a Glance

Letter from Kaela Frenchman '24 and Olivia DeFusco '24

Letter from Jack Thompson '24

Honoring Dr. Scott Deacle and Investment Team Updates

UCIMCO Investment Performance and Analysis

Endowment Outlook

Stock Selection Picks

Women's Fund Picks

Our Teams

Thank You!

How to Contribute

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Endowment

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Stock Selection

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Women's Fund

Ucimco Endowment Semi-Annual Presentation, Fall 2023, Will Alain, Billy Cardino, Tyler Causa, Patrick Collins, Bill Cook, Cole Grubbs, Kieran Hollander, Dylan Hollick, Jared Minnichbach, Alexandra Nenish, Jordan Pick, Kipp Ransome, Kirk Ransome, Kyle Rosenfeld, Tyler Sargent, Michael Scheller, Max Shilstone, Mckade Trauger, Nick Troha

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. This presentation, by the endowment team, examines performance and investment philosophy while discussing selections in the portfolio including: fixed income, U.S. and international equities, real estate and commodities.

Ursinus College Women's Investment Fund, Fall 2023, Sarah Dilello, Emily Carkhuff, Katie Ciuffreda, Laura Bradley, Samantha Mallen, Carly Troilo, Camila Knipe, Isabella Scarpetti, Mayleigh Rickey, Carlie Shiller

Business and Economics Presentations

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company (UCIMCO) consists of groups of student analysts who manage endowment-style and stock selection funds on behalf of the college endowment. In 2020, a group of women students began to manage their own fund. This presentation reviews activities of the Fall 2023 semester and analyzes the stock performance of various companies including: Salesforce, InterDigital Inc., SPX Technologies, NextEra Energy and RenaissanceRe Holdings.

Who Profits From Trading Options?, Jianfeng Hu, Antonia Kirilova, Gilbert Seongkyu Park, Doojin. Ryu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We use account-level transaction data to examine trading styles and profitability in a leading derivatives market. Approximately 66% of active retail investors predominantly hold simple, one-sided positions in only one class of options, whereas institutional investors are more likely to use complex strategies. Hypothesizing that the complexity of trading styles reflects investors' skills, we examine the effect of options trading styles on investment performance. We find that retail investors using simple strategies lose to the rest of the market. For both retail and institutional investors, selling volatility is the most successful strategy. We conclude that these style effects are persistent …

Does Herding Behavior Exist In The Cryptocurrency Market?, Anis Mnif

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

This paper examines herd behavior in the cryptocurrency market using data of the top 15 large cryptocurrencies and the CCi30 Index as a proxy for market return. The idea that investors mimic and follow the behavior of others in the cryptocurrency market rather than conducting their own research has received attention in the finance literature. The CSAD results in the static model detected herding but given the existence of structural breakdowns and nonlinearities in the data series, we opted to conduct a rolling window analysis. The results indicate strong herding behavior that fluctuates over time. Furthermore, results from the logistic …

Assessing Diversification Of S&P500 And Cdx Indexes, Jeffrey A. Palma

Doctoral Dissertations (DBA)

In this paper, I conduct a study of comovement between equity and corporate bonds using S&P500 and Investment Grade and High Yield CDX Indexes to evaluate the diversification benefits of holding these assets in portfolios. I assess comovement and diversification potential using DCC-GARCH and copulas. This approach allows for a review of equity and credit linkages through multiple lenses and evaluation of how these relationships have evolved over time. In general, I find only modest potential for diversification between equity and CDX markets and strong evidence of increased comovement over time.

Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive?, Thomas Ernst, Chester Spatt, Jian Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We model two different methods of executing segregated retail orders: broker's routing, whereby brokers allocate orders using market maker's overall performance, and order-by-order auctions, where market makers bid on individual orders, a recent SEC proposal. Order-by-order auctions improve market maker allocative efficiency, but face a winner's curse reducing retail investor welfare, particularly when liquidity is limited. Additional market participants competing for retail orders fail to improve total efficiency and investor welfare when entrants possess information superior to incumbent wholesalers. Existing Retail Liquidity Programs empirically suggest order-by-order auctions would attract few bidders in less liquid stocks and low-liquidity periods.

Is Carbon Risk Priced In The Cross Section Of Corporate Bond Returns?, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Quan Wen

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This article examines the pricing of a firm’s carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the “carbon risk premium” hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and exposure to known risk factors. Investigating sources of the low carbon alpha, we find the underperformance of bonds issued by carbon-intensive firms cannot be fully explained by divestment from institutional investors. Instead, our evidence is most consistent with investor underreaction to the predictability of carbon intensity for firm cash-flow news, creditworthiness, and environmental incidents.

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Outperforming The Stock Market Using Market Anomalies, Brett Bennett

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

The objective of this study is to explore the use of well-researched market anomalies to generate higher risk-adjusted returns than the overall stock market. Four specific market anomalies are examined: the small-firm effect; price reversals; the January effect; and the momentum effect. It focuses on historical evidence, anomaly characteristics, and potential risks. This study also explores the use of anomaly detection techniques, such as machine learning, in identifying market mispricings. It finds that a selective approach, combining market anomalies with traditional investment strategies, is crucial for effective implementation. This study provides insights for investors seeking to capitalize on market anomalies …

Assessing The Impact Of Impact Investing: Practices, Challenges, And Opportunities Towards The Standardization Of Impact Assessment Mechanisms, Taylor Poe

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

This research project focuses on gathering information on which impact measurement mechanisms are currently used in the impact investing industry, and how these mechanisms are standardized across various firms, geographic locations, and fund types. The overarching goal of the study is to provide an assessment of the impact investing industry and the use of standardized impact assessment practices. The specific goal of this research study is to collect and present information on the current state of impact measurement standardization. Research is separated into three large components: interviews with industry leaders, findings from social finance conferences, and research of scholarly sources. …

An Investigation Into The Economic Useful Life Of Commercial Aircraft As Impacted By Maintenance And Economic Variables, Robert Gallagher

Doctoral Dissertations and Master's Theses

This research involved examining the economic useful life of commercial aircraft and the impact of maintenance and economic variables on the viability and longevity of the asset. The data sample consisted of the entire population of Boeing commercial aircraft produced between 1956 and 2021. The objective was to determine the effect of both maintenance and economic variables on the longevity and usefulness of commercial aircraft. As manufacturers work with issues such as service life, economic life, safety, and critical design features, those in the aviation community focus on the operational side of the equation––how long can one operate the asset, …

The Ursinus College Investment Management Company Newsletter, Spring 2023, Eric Parnell, Scott Deacle, Maureen Cumpstone, Ben Sjosten, Kaela Frenchman, Evan Coffrey

Investment Management Company Newsletter

Inside this issue:

At a Glance

Letter from Ben Sjosten '23

Letter from Kaela Frenchman '24

Letter from Evan Coffrey '24

Investment Team Strategies and Updates

UCIMCO Investment Performance and Analysis

Endowment Outlook

Stock Selection Picks

Women's Fund Picks

Our Teams

Thank You!

How to Contribute

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Endowment

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Women's Fund

Investment Policy Statement UCIMCO Stock Selection

Fraud Pattern Detection For Nft Markets, Andrew Leppla, Jorge Olmos, Jaideep Lamba

SMU Data Science Review

Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) enable ownership and transfer of digital assets using blockchain technology. As a relatively new financial asset class, NFTs lack robust oversight and regulations. These conditions create an environment that is susceptible to fraudulent activity and market manipulation schemes. This study examines the buyer-seller network transactional data from some of the most popular NFT marketplaces (e.g., AtomicHub, OpenSea) to identify and predict fraudulent activity. To accomplish this goal multiple features such as price, volume, and network metrics were extracted from NFT transactional data. These were fed into a Multiple-Scale Convolutional Neural Network that predicts suspected fraudulent activity based …

A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Hedging is a common trading activity to manage the risk of engaging in transactions that involve derivatives such as options. Perfect and timely hedging, however, is an impossible task in the real market that characterizes discrete-time transactions with costs. Recent years have witnessed reinforcement learning (RL) in formulating optimal hedging strategies. Specifically, different RL algorithms have been applied to learn the optimal offsetting position based on market conditions, offering an automatic risk management solution that proposes optimal hedging strategies while catering to both market dynamics and restrictions. In this article, the author provides a comprehensive review of the use of …

Price Comovement And Market Segmentation Of Chinese A- And H-Shares: Evidence From A Panel Latent-Factor Model, Yingjie Dong, Wenxin Huang, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the price comovement of cross-listed Chinese A- and H-shares using a panel model with latent factors and a heterogeneous long-run structure. Our model is more flexible than the cointegration system and is estimated using the data-driven Cup–Lasso method. The long-run H-share price discounts are heterogeneous across different groups of stocks. We have identified both stationary and nonstationary latent factors in the price differentials, which are driven by different economic variables. By analyzing the factor loadings of the nonstationary latent factor, we identify some trading-friction and information-friction variables that have effects on the price convergence between the A- …

Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study the importance of peer effects among sell-side analysts who work at the same brokerage house, but cover different firms. By mapping the information network within each brokerage, we identify analysts who occupy central positions in their network. Central analysts incorporate more information from their coworkers and produce better research. Using shocks to network structures around brokerage mergers, we identify the influence of peer effects and the importance of industry expertise on analysts’ performance. A portfolio strategy that exploits the forecast revisions of central analysts earns up to 24% per annum.