Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Limited Attention To Detail In Financial Markets: Evidence From Reduced-Form And Structural Estimation, Henrik Cronqvist, Tomislav Ladika, Elisa Pazaj, Zacharias Sautner

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We show that firm valuations fell after a key expense became more visible in financial statements. FAS 123-R required firms to deduct option compensation costs from earnings, instead of disclosing them in footnotes. Firms that granted high option pay experienced earnings reductions, while fundamentals remained unchanged. These firms were more likely to miss earnings forecasts, and they experienced recommendation downgrades and valuation declines. Our findings suggest that market participants exhibited limited attention to option costs before FAS 123-R. As we reuse the FAS 123-R natural experiment, we show how one can address confounding channels by integrating reduced-form and structural estimation.

Does Finance Make Us Less Social?, Henrik Cronqvist, Mitch Warachka, Frank Yu

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Informal risk sharing within social networks and formal financial contracts both enable households to manage risk. We find that financial contracting reduces participation in social networks. Specifically, increased crop insurance usage decreased local religious adherence and congregation membership in agricultural communities. Our identification utilizes the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994 that doubled crop insurance usage nationally within a year, although changes in usage varied across counties. Difference-in-difference and Spatial First Difference tests confirm that households substituted insurance for religiosity. This substitution was associated with reductions in crop diversification and crop yields, indicating an increase in moral hazard.

The Night And Day Of Amihud’S (2002) Liquidity Measure, Yashar H. Barardehi, Dan Bernhardt, Thomas G. Ruchti, Marc Weidenmier

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Amihud’s stock (il)liquidity measure averages daily ratios of the absolute close-to-close return to dollar volume, including overnight returns. Our modified measure uses open-to-close returns matching return and trading volume measurement windows. It is more strongly correlated with trading-cost measures (by 8%–37%) and better explains cross-sections of returns, doubling estimated liquidity premiums. Using nonsynchronous trading near close, we show overnight returns are primarily information driven: including them in Amihud’s proxy for price impacts of trading magnifies measurement error, understating liquidity premiums. Our modification helps wherever Amihud’s measure is required. Our measures are publicly available for 1964–2019 and can be updated. ( …

How Social Media Communications Can Mitigate Negative Impacts Of Corporate Social Irresponsibility On Corporate Financial Performance?, Saad A. Alhoqail, Hyun Young Cho, Kristopher Floyd

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Previous research on corporate social responsibility (CSR) has focused on corporate reputation (CR) and corporate financial performance (CFP), showing a high correlation between both. While most researchers primarily focus on CSR, our research examines the other side of the coin; corporate social irresponsibility (CSI) and provides findings that counter previous thought. We contribute to the existing literature by showing that CSI has a non-significant impact on corporate financial performance, as measured by market value, while concurrently being negatively correlated to corporate reputation. Further, we show social media, as measured by the Social Media Sustainability Index (SMSI), a measure studied infrequently …

Investment In A Smaller World: The Implications Of Air Travel For Investors And Firms, Zhi Da, Umit G. Gurun, Bin Li, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

A large literature reports that proximity influences investment. We extend the measurement of proximity beyond distance and report that air travel reduces local investment bias. This result is confirmed using the initiation of connecting flights through recently opened air hubs because investment at destinations served by these connecting flights increases after, not before, their initiation. Air travel also broadens the investor base of firms and lowers their cost of equity by approximately 1%. Overall, air travel improves the diversification of investor portfolios and lowers the cost of equity for firms.

Fiscal Policy, Consumption Risk, And Stock Returns: Evidence From Us States, Zhi Da, Mitch Warachka, Hayong Yun

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We find that consumption risk is lower in states that implement countercyclical fiscal policies. Moreover, firms with an investor base that is concentrated in countercyclical states have lower stock returns, along with firms that relocate their headquarters to a countercyclical state. Therefore, countercyclical fiscal policies lower the consumption risk of investors and, consequently, their required equity return premium. This conclusion is confirmed by smaller declines in market participation during recessions in countercyclical states. Overall, the location of a firm’s investor base enables state-level fiscal policy to influence stock returns.

Financial Synergies And Systemic Risk In The Organization Of Bank Afþliates, Elisa Luciano, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We analyze theoretically banks’ choice of organizational structures in branches, subsidiaries or stand-alone banks, in the presence of public bailouts and default costs. These structures are characterized by different arrangements for internal rescue of affiliates against default. The cost of debt and leverage are endogenous. For moderate bailout probabilities, subsidiary structures, wherein the two entities provide mutual internal rescue under limited liability, have the highest group value, but also the highest risk taking as measured by leverage and expected loss. We explore the effect of constraints on leverage and policy implications. The conflict of interests between regulators, who minimize systemic …

Lottery Tax Windfalls, State-Level Fiscal Policy, And Consumption, Zhi Da, Mitch Warachka, Hayong Yun

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We find that lottery tax windfalls finance higher state-government expenditures on supplemental security income that increase consumption, but only during bust periods. Wealth transfers from lottery winners to low income households enable fiscal policy to stabilize consumption during bust periods.

Frog In The Pan: Continuous Information And Momentum, Zhi Da, Umit G. Gurun, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We test a frog-in-the-pan (FIP) hypothesis that predicts investors are inattentive to information arriving continuously in small amounts. Intuitively, we hypothesize that a series of frequent gradual changes attracts less attention than infrequent dramatic changes. Consistent with the FIP hypothesis, we find that continuous information induces strong persistent return continuation that does not reverse in the long run. Momentum decreases monotonically from 5.94% for stocks with continuous information during their formation period to –2.07% for stocks with discrete information but similar cumulative formation-period returns. Higher media coverage coincides with discrete information and mitigates the stronger momentum following continuous information.

Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Roger K. Loh, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

The gambler's fallacy [Rabin, M. 2002. Inference by believers in the law of small numbers. Quart. J. Econom.117(3) 775–816] predicts that trends bias investor expectations. Consistent with this prediction, we find that investors underreact to streaks of consecutive earnings surprises with the same sign. When the most recent earnings surprise extends a streak, post-earnings-announcement drift is strong and significant. In contrast, the drift is negligible following the termination of a streak. Indeed, streaks explain about half of the post-earnings-announcement drift in our sample. Our results are robust to more general definitions of trends than streaks and a battery …

An Improved Test For Statistical Arbitrage, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We improve upon the power of the statistical arbitrage test in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004). Our methodology also allows for the evaluation of return anomalies under weaker assumptions. We then compare strategies based on their convergence rates to arbitrage and identify strategies whose probability of a loss declines to zero most rapidly. These strategies are preferred by investors with finite horizons or limited capital. After controlling for market frictions and examining convergence rates to arbitrage, we find that momentum and value strategies offer the most desirable trading opportunities.

International Comparisons Of Bank Regulation, Liberalization, And Banking Crises, Puspa Amri, Apanard P. Angkinand, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Purpose: The recurrence of banking crises throughout the 1980s and 1990s, and in the more recent 2008-09 global financial crisis, has led to an expanding empirical literature on crisis explanation and prediction. This paper provides an analytical review of proxies for and important determinants of banking crises − credit growth, financial liberalization, bank regulation and supervision.

Design/Methodology/Approach: The study surveys the banking crisis literature by comparing proxies for and measures of banking crises and policy-related variables in the literature. Advantages and disadvantages of different proxies are discussed.

Findings: Disagreements about determinants of banking crises are in part …

The Disparity Between Long-Term And Short-Term Forecasted Earnings Growth, Zhi Da, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We find the disparity between long-term and short-term analyst forecasted earnings growth is a robust predictor of future returns and long-term analyst forecast errors. After adjusting for industry characteristics, stocks whose long-term earnings growth forecasts are far above or far below their implied short-term forecasts for earnings growth have negative and positive subsequent risk-adjusted returns along with downward and upward revisions in long-term forecasted earnings growth, respectively. Additional results indicate that investor inattention toward firm-level changes in long-term earnings growth is responsible for these risk-adjusted returns.

The Impact Of Transaction Duration, Volume And Direction On Price Dynamics And Volatility, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We explore the role of trade volume, trade direction, and the duration between trades in explaining price dynamics and volatility using an Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration model applied to intraday transactions data. Our results suggest that volume, direction and duration are important determinants of price dynamics, while duration is also an important determinant of volatility. However, the impact of volume and direction on volatility is marginal after controlling for duration, and the impact of volume on volatility appears to be confined to periods of infrequent trading.

Financial Liberalization And Banking Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis, Apanard P. Angkinand, Wanvimol Sawangngoenyuang, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization contributes to the likelihood of a financial crisis. We focus on banking crises and argue that they are most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms in 48 countries between 1973 and 2005, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of crisis. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking crises depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation …

Deposit Insurance Coverage, Ownership, And Banks' Risk-Taking In Emerging Markets, Apanard P. Angkinand, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We ask how deposit insurance systems and ownership of banks affect the degree of market discipline on banks' risk-taking. Market discipline is determined by the extent of explicit deposit insurance, as well as by the credibility of non-insurance of groups of depositors and other creditors. Furthermore, market discipline depends on the ownership structure of banks and the responsiveness of bank managers to market incentives. An expected U-shaped relationship between explicit deposit insurance coverage and banks' risk-taking is influenced by country specific institutional factors, including bank ownership. We analyze specifically how government ownership, foreign ownership and shareholder rights affect the disciplinary …

Impact Of Mad Money Stock Recommendations: Merging Financial And Marketing Perspectives, Ekaterina Karniouchina, William L. Moore, Kevin J. Cooney

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This article relies on advertising and persuasive communications theories to uncover persistent variations in investor response to television stock recommendations targeting naive investors. The authors use an event study methodology to determine the size of the next-day abnormal market reaction to recommendations on Mad Money with Jim Cramer. Although viewers are actively looking for recommendations, the results show that any individual recommendation is still subject to many of the same communication challenges as traditional advertisements. A regression analysis finds that traditional advertising variables, such as message length, recency-primacy effects, information clutter, and source credibility, influence the size of the market …

Origins And Resolution Of Financial Crises: Lessons From The Current And Northern European Crises, Finn Ostrup, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Since July 2007, the world economy has experienced a severe financial crisis that originated in the U.S. housing market. Subsequently, the crisis has spread to financial sectors in European and Asian economies and led to a severe worldwide recession. The existing literature on financial crises rarely distinguishes between factors that create the original strain on the financial sector and factors that explain why these strains lead to system-wide contagion and a possible credit crunch. Most of the literature on financial crises refers to factors that cause an original disruption in the financial system. We argue that a financial crisis with …

Origins And Resolution Of Financial Crises: Lessons From The Current And Northern European Crises, Finn Østrup, Lars Oxelheim, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Since July 2007, the world economy has experienced a severe financial crisis that originated in the U.S. housing market. Subsequently, the crisis has spread to financial sectors in European and Asian economies and led to a severe worldwide recession. The existing literature on financial crises rarely distinguishes between factors that create the original strain on the financial sector and factors that explain why these strains lead to system-wide contagion and a possible credit crunch. Most of the literature on financial crises refers to factors that cause an original disruption in the financial system. We argue that a financial crisis with …

Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

We evaluate the relative performance of funds by conditioning their returns on the cross-section of portfolio characteristics across fund managers. Our implied procedure circumvents the need to specify benchmark returns or peer funds. Instead, fund-specific benchmarks for measuring selection and market timing ability are constructed. This technique is robust to herding as well as window dressing and mitigates survivorship bias. Empirically, the conditional information contained in portfolio weights defined by industry sectors, assets, and geographical regions is important to the assessment of fund management. For each set of portfolio characteristics, we identify funds with success at either selecting securities or …

Oxytocin Increases Generosity In Humans, Paul J. Zak, Angela Stanton, Sheila Ahmadi

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Human beings routinely help strangers at costs to themselves. Sometimes the help offered is generous-offering more than the other expects. The proximate mechanisms supporting generosity are not well-understood, but several lines of research suggest a role for empathy. In this study, participants were infused with 40 IU oxytocin (OT) or placebo and engaged in a blinded, one-shot decision on how to split a sum of money with a stranger that could be rejected. Those on OT were 80% more generous than those given a placebo. OT had no effect on a unilateral monetary transfer task dissociating generosity from altruism. OT …

Evaluating The Nordea Experiment: Evidence From Market And Accounting Data, Lawrence G. Goldberg, Richard J. Sweeney, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This paper discusses results and difficulties of comparing banks’ performance based on publicly available data for the case of Nordea, a pan-Nordic bank created through mergers of important national banks. The objective is to determine whether Nordea’s unique strategy of functional integration across four countries can be advantageous. For stock-market data, however, Nordea does not have stable betas on risk factors, and thus the comparables method must be used with great care. The Nordea holding company performed about as well as the comparables, both in terms of stock-market and accounting data. Nordea banks in individual countries outperformed comparable holding companies; …

Optimal Liquidation Strategies And Their Implications, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka, Yonggan Zhao

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This paper studies optimal liquidation when the selling price depends on the rate of liquidation, transaction time, volume, and the asset's intrinsic value. A generic closed-form solution for maximizing the discounted liquidation proceeds is derived. To obtain financial insights, three parametric specifications that proxy for increasingly realistic market conditions are examined. In our framework, maximizing liquidation proceeds and minimizing liquidity costs are equivalent. The optimal strategies imply more rapid liquidations in less liquid markets. We also show that volatility is stochastic when market liquidity is unpredictable.

Pricing Options In An Extended Black Scholes Economy With Illiquidity: Theory And Empirical Evidence, U. Çetin, Robert Jarrow, P. Protter, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This article studies the pricing of options in an extended Black Scholes economy in which the underlying asset is not perfectly liquid. The resulting liquidity risk is modeled as a stochastic supply curve, with the transaction price being a function of the trade size. Consistent with the market microstructure literature, the supply curve is upward sloping with purchases executed at higher prices and sales at lower prices. Optimal discrete time hedging strategies are then derived. Empirical evidence reveals a significant liquidity cost intrinsic to every option.

Outsourcing Central Banking: Lessons From Estonia, Sarkis Joseph Khoury, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

An orthodox currency board (CB) renders central banking redundant for interest and exchange rate determination. Thereby, monetary policy is de facto outsourced. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in banking can lead to outsourcing of the second important central bank function, responsibility for banking supervision. Economic and political conditions for outsourcing of central banking are discussed. Estonia's experience with a CB and expanding foreign involvement in banking is reviewed. The Argentine CB experience is discussed briefly to provide a contrast. The conclusion outlines the conditions for successful currency outsourcing to another country or regional authority.

The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Lim Kian Guan, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.

Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage With Applications To Momentum And Value Strategies, Steve Hogan, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

This paper introduces the concept of statistical arbitrage, a long horizon trading opportunity that generates a riskless profit and is designed to exploit persistent anomalies. Statistical arbitrage circumvents the joint hypothesis dilemma of traditional market efficiency tests because its definition is independent of any equilibrium model and its existence is incompatible with market efficiency. We provide a methodology to test for statistical arbitrage and then empirically investigate whether momentum and value trading strategies constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities. Despite adjusting for transaction costs, the influence of small stocks, margin requirements, liquidity buffers for the marking-to-market of short-sales, and higher borrowing rates, …

The Effect Of Taxes On The Pricing Of Defaultable Debt, Kian Guan Lim, Fenghua Song, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Empirical studies have documented the dependence of corporate credit spreads on default risk, equity premiums, and taxes. However, taxes have previously not been incorporated into reduced-form credit risk models. Therefore, we first extend the existing literature by considering a default intensity that depends on taxes as well as the default-free short rate and a market index. Consequently, we establish a theoretical basis to explain previous empirical findings regarding the significant impact of taxation on defaultable bond prices. Unlike previous models, tax implications for defaultable debt cannot be constructed from a sum of tax effects on zero coupon bonds. Our empirical …

Impact: What Influences Finance Research?, Tom Arnold, Alexander W. Butler, Timothy Falcon Crack, Ayca Altintig

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Which journal articles have had the most impact on finance research? Which journals dominated finance research in the 1990s? We answer these and similar questions using a comprehensive sample of journals, an extensive time period, and a new ranking method that avoids problems inherent in the existing literature. Among our findings: six of the 10 articles most highly cited by finance journals were published in econometrics or economics journals; Journal of Finance has the most citations, but it accounts for only one of the top 10 articles; and Journal of Financial Economics has the highest impact per article.

A Quantum Field Theory Term Structure Model Applied To Hedging, Belal E. Baaquie, Marakani Skirant, Mitch Warachka

Business Faculty Articles and Research

A quantum field theory generalization, Baaquie [1], of the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (HJM) [10] term structure model parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. Field theory also offers powerful computational tools to compute path integrals which naturally arise from all forward rate models. Specifically, incorporating field theory into the term structure facilitates hedge parameters that reduce to their finite factor HJM counterparts under special correlation structures. Although investors are unable to perfectly hedge against an infinite number of term structure perturbations in a field theory model, empirical evidence using market data reveals the effectiveness of a low …