Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

An Examination Of Value Line’S Long-Term Projection, Andrew Szakmary, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution.

Duration Measures For Corporate Project Valuation, Tom Arnold, David S. North

Finance Faculty Publications

Sensitivity analysis is a very common exercise performed with the forecasting of project cash flows. In this paper, a duration-type measure is generated that provides a single number for the assessment of project cash flows relative to changes in the discount rate (or adjusted for changes in a particular cash flow model parameter). The calculation is no more difficult than the duration measures that already exist for bonds. Yet, the calculation provides valuable insight that many times is lost when performing sensitivity analysis. Further, at a minimum, the measure provides a gauge for the consequences of mis-specifiying the discount rate …

A Simplified Approach To Understanding The Kalman Filter Technique, Tom Arnold, Mark J. Bertus, Jonathan Godbey

Finance Faculty Publications

The Kalman filter is a time series estimation algorithm that is applied extensively in the field of engineering and recently (relative to engineering) in the field of finance and economics. However, presentations of the technique are somewhat intimidating despite the relative ease of generating the algorithm. This article presents the Kalman filter in a simplified manner and produces an example of an application of the algorithm in Excel. This scaled-down version of the Kalman filter can be introduced in the (advanced) undergraduate classroom as well as the graduate classroom.

An International Comparison Of Student Perceptions Of Earnings Management: Evidence Of Effects Of National Origin Between Mexico And The United States, Marshall A. Geiger, Carmen Quirvan, Alejandro Hazera

Accounting Faculty Publications

Manipulating reported earnings is a temptation faced by accountants and financial professionals around the world. Manipulating, or “managing,” one’s accounting earnings takes a variety of forms and includes not only the avoidance of prescribed accounting rules but also the practice of selectively choosing accounting estimates or timing operating decisions to move reported earnings toward a desired goal. Prior research reveals wide disagreement regarding the perceived ethical acceptability of this practice. This study investigates whether national origin influences perceptions of earnings management. Participants from the United States and Mexico evaluated thirteen vignettes describing various earnings management practices (Merchant and Rockness 1994). …

Brink's Entry Into China 2007, Roger R. Schnorbus, Littleton M. Maxwell

Robins School of Business White Paper Series, 1980-2022

This case was prepared from various referenced sources and was developed solely for classroom discussion; the case is not intended to serve as an endorsement, source of primary data or an illustration of either effective or ineffective handling of a business situation.

Ron Rokosz, the President of Brink's International was both pleased and distressed as he reviewed the financial results of International operations for fiscal 2006. Revenue had increased by 14% to $1,568.6M, driven by strong gains in both EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and LA (Latin America). In addition, operating profit in International was up by 68%. (Exhibit 1) …

A Simple Model Of Interest Rate Term Structure, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

Without much technical expertise, a yield curve model is presented that is very dynamic and can be easily programmed in Excel for classroom presentation or for assignments. By using the output of the model to have students find embedded rates within the yield curve, a discussion of how bond traders speculate on interest rates emerges very easily. Further, the model output can also be used for numerous exercises including the pricing of strips or for evaluating the positions of an entire bond portfolio. Within the exercises, the dynamic nature of the model can be exploited to provide sensitivity analysis.

Implied Binomial Trees In Excel Without Vba, Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack, Adam Schwartz

Finance Faculty Publications

We implement a Rubinstein-type (1994) implied binomial tree using an Excel spreadsheet, but without using VBA (Visual Basic Application). We demonstrate both the optimization needed to generate implied ending risk-neutral probabilities from a set of actual option prices and the backwards recursion needed to solve for the entire implied tree. By using only standard Excel spreadsheet functions, and not resorting to VBA, this complicated option pricing technique is now immediately transparent to academics, students, and practitioners alike. The intuition gained from our simple spreadsheet can be applied directly to the estimation of more complicated implied trees using more advanced software. …

The Relationship Between The Value Effect And Industry Affiliation, John C. Banko, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen

Finance Faculty Publications

We examine industry affiliation and the relationship between stock returns and book‐to‐market equity (the value effect). The robustness of the value effect is supported as a significant value premium is shown to exist in 15 of 21 industries. Both industry and firm‐level value effects are identified; however, the firm‐level effect is the more prominent of the two. Further, the value effect is shown to be strongest in value industries and weakest in growth industries. Finally, we show evidence consistent with the claim that the value premium is due to investors requiring higher returns from firms in distressed conditions.

Applying Altman's Z-Score In The Classroom, Tom Arnold, John H. Earl Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

Altman's Z-score is introduced in an Excel framework to produce a quick calculation of the Z-score with actual financial data available through the Internet. The lesson plan developed is easily introduced with topics covering ratio analysis, financial risk, bond rating changes, and bankruptcy. Given the wide use of the Z-score in practice to evaluate credit risk (or bankruptcy risk), the lesson plan produces a skill set that is very marketable.

Adding Depth To The Discussion Of Capital Budgeting Techniques, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

The subject of capital budgeting generally encompasses a significant percentage of any beginning finance course with net present value (NPV) often receiving the most attention. Even after this substantial time allotment, critical assumptions and comparisons of the different techniques (such as payback period, discounted payback period, NPV and IRR) are frequently glossed over due to time constraints. Consequently, the goal of this paper is to present these non-NPV techniques in a manner that allows the beginning finance student to expeditiously see the intuition, inherent assumptions, and any connection with the more popular NPV calculation. A small portion of this paper …

Getting More Out Of Two Asset Portfolios, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Two-asset portfolio mathematics is a fixture in many introductory finance and investment courses. However, the actual development of the efficient frontier and capital market line are generally left to a heuristic discussion with diagrams. In this article, the mathematics for calculating these attributes of two-asset portfolios are introduced in a framework intended for the undergraduate classroom.

Using Gmm To Flatten The Option Volatility Smile, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

By using an over-identified Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure with careful consideration for data biases existing in the previous literature, parameters are estimated for a stochastic volatility jump diffusion option pricing (SVJ) model. The estimated parameters indicate a statistically significant highly negative infrequent jump process in the underlying security return distribution consistent with market crashes. When comparing to a stochastic volatility (SV) option pricing model, the SVJ is more robust but not always the superior model. The robustness of the models is further gauged by evaluating performance up to a year beyond the estimation data.

Do Option Markets Substitute For Stock Markets?, Tom Arnold, Gayle Erwin, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Using a sample of cash tender offers occurring between 1993 and 2002, we find evidence that the options market has become the preferred venue for traders attempting to profit on anticipated announcements. Options offer advantages relative to stocks. Traders gain leverage by trading in options and multiple options contracts on an individual stock. The results of our study indicate that a substitution effect does exist. Abnormal volume in the option market replaces abnormal volume in the stock market prior to cash tender offer announcements, and this abnormal option volume precedes abnormal stock volume for targets with or without traded options.

Improving Pro Forma Analysis Through Better Terminal Value Estimates, Tom Arnold, David S. North, Roy A. Wiggins

Finance Faculty Publications

Basic pro forma analysis often estimates the terminal value input using a simple growing perpetuity assumption. While this assumption is easy to implement, it potentially creates an upward bias in some inputs leading to lower firm or project value outputs. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a more accurate way to estimate the terminal value input. Further, by allowing for multiple sales growth rates and by not restricting other input variables to necessarily grow at these same rates, a more accurate, flexible, compact, and thorough analysis is possible.

An Excel Application For Valuing European Options With Monte Carlo Analysis, Tom Arnold, Stephen C. Henry

Finance Faculty Publications

By developing the basic intuition of how Monte Carlo simulation works within an Excel spreadsheet framework, this paper allows the undergraduate student to use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to price European style options without additional sophisticated software. Further, the skills and intuition developed provide the basis for much more complex simulation techniques.

Is Fed Policy Still Relevant For Investors?, C. Mitchell Conover, Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Jeffrey M. Mercer

Finance Faculty Publications

Using 38 years of data, we show that U.S. monetary policy has had, and continues to have, a strong relationship with security returns. Specifically, we find that U.S. stock returns are consistently higher and less volatile during periods when the Federal Reserve is following an expansive monetary policy. Further, firms considered to be more sensitive to changes in monetary conditions, such as small firms and cyclicals, exhibit monetary-policy-related return patterns that are much more pronounced than average. Lastly, the influence of U.S. monetary policy is shown to be a global phenomenon, as international indices have return patterns similar to those …

Using The Wacc To Value Real Options, Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack

Finance Faculty Publications

We present a real option valuation using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This is an alternative to risk-neutral real option valuation. Using the WACC involves a marginal increase in mathematical complexity, but it is easy to implement in a spreadsheet, and it is easy to present to management. Our analysis reveals, however, that because the real option valuation is immune to choices of admissible discount rates (as per Arnold and Crack 2003a), the critical issue is correct estimation of volatility, not choice of discount rate. We also point out that the natural and conservative tendency to overestimate risk …

Interest Rate Parity In Excel, Tom Arnold, Bonnie Buchanan

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper develops interest rate parity in a framework that is easily implemented in Excel. The student can either be given the paper to see how the code is developed using the intuition of the interest rate parity framework or the student can be taught the interest rate parity framework and develop the Excel code as an assignment. Using either teaching method or the other exercises suggested in the paper, the student is able to understand how traders exploit violations of interest parity and become more comfortable with basic concepts, such as direct quotes and indirect quotes.

Understanding The Impact Of Financial Decisions On Financial Statements: A Pedagogical Note, Tom Arnold, Leroy Brooks, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Viable financial planning requires financial managers' understanding of the consequences of impending decisions on their company's financial performance and position. Understanding the impact of prior decisions on their financial statements also enables future decisions aimed at improving their shareholders' wealth. This note intends to contribute to developing this capacity in finance students. We provide a presentation format directly connecting financial decisions to financial statement impacts. Bridging material covered in accounting courses and a finance student's needs as a possible future manager or analyst, this classroom pedagogy supplements and reinforces the objectives of the financial planning component of a finance course.

Campbell Soup Company In 2004 (A), Roger R. Schnorbus

Robins School of Business White Paper Series, 1980-2022

As fiscal 2004[1] began, Doug Conant, the President and CEO of the Campbell Soup Company could take pride in the results of his 3-year transformation plan instituted in fiscal 2001 to revitalize the company. The key initiatives of the plan were to restore revenue and profitability growth and stimulate shareholder wealth.

Conant, who became President and CEO in January of 2001, called the plan, “the single most comprehensive commitment to revitalization ever undertaken in the 132-year history of Campbell Soup Company.”

The financial results achieved in fiscal 2002, the first year of the plan, were a mixed bag. Although net …

An Empirical Analysis Of Internal Control Weaknesses Under Sas No. 78: An Examination Of State Audit Reports, Edmund J. Boyle, Steven M. Cooper, Marshall A. Geiger

Accounting Faculty Publications

While there has been a considerable amount of research regarding internal control over the past several years, scant empirical research has examined SAS No. 78's integrated five-component depiction of internal control in a government setting. In particular, to our knowledge, no study has assessed the types or frequency of weaknesses under the SAS No. 78 framework using actual internal control system findings. In this study, we examine 32 state department and agency internal control reports to assess how well the theoretical framework captures actual system weaknesses, and to determine the relative distribution of weaknesses across components of the framework.

Our …

Intuitive Black-Scholes Option Pricing With A Simple Table, Tom Arnold, Terry D. Nixon, Richard L. Shockley Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

The Black-Scholes option pricing model (1973) can be intimidating for the novice. By rearranging and combining some of the variables, one can reduce the number of parameters in the valuation problem from five to two: 1) the option's moneyness ratio and 2) its time-adjusted volatility. This allows the computationally complex Black-Scholes formula to be collapsed into an easy-to-use table similar to those in some popular textbooks. The tabular approach provides an excellent tool for building intuition about the comparative statics in the Black-Scholes equation. Further, the pricing table can be used to price options on dividend-paying stocks, commodities, foreign exchange …

Finding Firm Value "Quickly" With An Analysis Of Debt, Tom Arnold, Jerry James

Finance Faculty Publications

A firm value calculator (FVC) is introduced that is much faster and less tedious than its pro forma counter-part. The additional benefit of this FVC over what is available in the existing literature is a direct analysis of the effect of leverage. The debt analysis is captured within both the firm's cash flow and the discount rate for the firm's cash flow. The calculator can be implemented on a hand-held calculator or on an Excel spreadsheet making the analysis very amenable to the classroom.

Impact: What Influences Finance Research?, Tom Arnold, Alexander W. Butler, Timothy Falcon Crack, Ayca Altintig

Finance Faculty Publications

Which journal articles have had the most impact on finance research? Which journals dominated finance research in the 1990s? We answer these and similar questions using a comprehensive sample of journals, an extensive time period, and a new ranking method that avoids problems inherent in the existing literature. Among our findings: six of the 10 articles most highly cited by finance journals were published in econometrics or economics journals; Journal of Finance has the most citations, but it accounts for only one of the top 10 articles; and Journal of Financial Economics has the highest impact per article.

Diversification Benefits From Foreign Real Estate Investment, C. Mitchell Conover, H. Swint Friday, G. Stacy Sirmans

Finance Faculty Publications

Previous research has questioned the stability of international equity diversification. This study examines whether foreign real estate exists in a more segmented market and whether foreign real estate provides any diversification benefit beyond that obtainable from foreign stocks. Using data encompassing the stock market crash of 1987, foreign real estate was found to have a lower correlation with U.S. stocks than foreign stocks. This lower correlation is shown to be stable through time as foreign real estate has a lower correlation in nearly the entire time period. Foreign real estate was also found to have a significant weight in efficient …

Adr Risk Characteristics And Measurement, Tom Arnold, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

While a healthy empirical literature exists on international diversification and its benefits, surprisingly few studies have examined the risk characteristics and efficacy of asset pricing models for one avenue of international diversification – investments in American Depository Receipts (ADRs). Originating in approximately 1927, ADRs provide an opportunity for investors to indirectly purchase shares of foreign firms. ADRs represent a claim to a given number of shares of a foreign firm held by a U.S. financial institution (e.g., Bank of New York). With the increasingly significant presence of ADR trading in the American stock markets – increasing six-fold between 1990 and …

An Analysis Of The Cross Section Of Returns For Ereits Using A Varying-Risk Beta Model, C. Mitchell Conover, H. Swint Friday, Shelly W. Howton

Finance Faculty Publications

A dual-beta asset pricing model is employed to examine the cross-section of realized equity real estate investment trust (EREIT) returns over bull and bear markets. No significant relationship is found between EREIT returns and a constant beta. However, beta explains cross-sectional returns when betas are allowed to vary across bull markets. This positive relationship exists for both January and non-January months. During bear-market months, no significant relationship is found between REIT betas and returns. But, during such months, size and book-to-market ratio are found to be negatively related to returns.

Going-Concern Audit Report Recipients Before And After Sas No. 59, Marshall A. Geiger, Kannan Raghunandan, D. V. Rama

Accounting Faculty Publications

In an attempt to provide information to make an evaluation on whether the requirements under SAS No. 59 have had any significant effect on auditor reporting decisions, a study was conducted that examined companies receiving going-concern modified reports before and after the implementation of SAS No. 59. We wanted to assess whether auditors were issuing going-concern modified reports to clients exhibiting different levels of financial stress and also whether the bankruptcy rate of such companies was different after the adoption of SAS No. 59.

How Much Is Purchasing Power Parity Worth?, Stefan C. Norrbin, C. Mitchell Conover

Finance Faculty Publications

Updating Bilson 's (1984) investment strategy using an out-of-sample forecast procedure, we find much smaller profits from a trading strategy based on purchasing power parity. Though the total profit is significant at a 5 percent level, it is substantially lower than what Bilson found. Our results suggest Bilson's excess profits are due to the sample of data used and the in-sample nature of the tests. Hence, this paper demonstrates that the simple investment strategy leads to the same conclusion that econometric testing does; namely, that purchasing power parity is only marginally useful in forecasting exchange rates.

Auditor Judgment Confidence: Direct Evidence For The Process View, Marshall A. Geiger, A.C. Lloyd Spurrell

Accounting Faculty Publications

Although there has been considerable research on audit judgment processes and structures, one area that has received little attention is auditor judgment confidence. Determining the nature of confidence attainment has direct implications for audit practice, particularly regarding the timing of evidence evaluation leading to final judgments. The present study extends the early work of Pincus (1991) and is the first to provide direct evidence in support of the process view of audit judgment confidence.