Political Science Commons^™

Predicting Genocide And Mass Atrocities, Ernesto Verdeja

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

This article examines several current risk assessment and early warning models to predict genocide and mass atrocities. Risk assessment (RA) concerns a country’s long­-term structural conditions (regime type, state-led discrimination, etc.) that determine overall risk for atrocities. Early warning (EW) focuses on short/midterm dynamics that can serve as triggers. The article evaluates contemporary RA and EW forecast modeling, and asks: How well can we predict mass atrocities and genocide? What are the strengths and limitations to current predictive modeling? Part I examines several quantitative (statistical) RA models and identifies several strengths and limitations in current research. Part II investigates a …

Why The U.S. Government Failed To Anticipate The Rwandan Genocide Of 1994: Lessons For Early Warning And Prevention, Matthew Levinger

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

During the months leading up to the Rwandan genocide of 1994, cognitive biases obstructed the capacity of U.S. government analysts and policymakers to anticipate mass violence against the country’s Tutsi minority. Drawing on recently declassified U.S. government documents and on interviews with key current and former officials, this essay shows that most U.S. government reporting on Rwanda before April 1994 utilized a faulty cognitive frame that failed to differentiate between threats of civil war and genocide. Because U.S. officials framed the crisis in Rwanda as a potential civil war, they underestimated the virulence of the threat to Tutsi civilians and …

Dangerous Speech And Dangerous Ideology: An Integrated Model For Monitoring And Prevention, Jonathan Leader Maynard, Susan Benesch

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

There is considerable agreement amongst scholars and international actors that ideologies and speech play a critical role in the path of escalation towards mass atrocity crimes. Speech features prominently in the jurisprudence of the U.N. war crimes tribunal for Rwanda, for example, and in historical accounts of the months and years preceding many other genocides. Nonetheless, this is one of the most underdeveloped components of genocide and atrocity prevention, in both theory and practice. This paper draws together the authors’ independent past work on dangerous speech and the ideological dynamics of mass atrocities by offering a new integrated model to …

The Impossibility To Protect? Media Narratives And The Responsibility To Protect, Kjell Føllingstad Anderson, Ingjerd Veiden Brakstad

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

The media plays an important role in communicating mass atrocities to audiences across the globe. This article critically examines how journalists’ framing of mass atrocities may contribute to public discourse on the responsibility to protect principle, in particular the perceived obligation to intervene in cases of mass atrocities. It will draw from a broader conceptual framework on bystander responses to mass atrocities and utilise evidence from the analysis of newspaper accounts of the Rwandan and Bosnian genocides. It will argue that, in some cases, media narratives may actually erode political will and encourage passivity in response to mass atrocities.

More Lessons Learned From The Holocaust - Towards A Complexity-Embracing Approach To Why Genocide Occurs, Timothy Williams

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

Why do genocides occur? This paper applies qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to revisit this question, and analyses 139 cases of genocide and non-genocide. The paper demonstrates the importance of both priming, contextual conditions which provide a political opportunity structure conducive to genocide, as well as triggering, more proximate conditions which constitute immanent motivations. Most centrally, sufficiency is demonstrated for genocide occurrence when an autocratic regime and the salience of an elite's ethnicity are present, and are combined with either an exclusionary ideology or political upheaval. As such, the autocratic nature of the state provides an opportunity structure allowing genocide to …

Book Review: The Structural Prevention Of Mass Atrocities: Understanding Risk And Resilience, Rhiannon S. Neilsen

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

Scholarship on the structural prevention of genocide and mass atrocities is, for the most part, saturated with identifying the ‘root causes’ of deadly violence. Conversely, the causes of peace and the processes that de-escalate tensions – in effect, “what goes right” – remain comparatively under researched. In his book The Structural Prevention of Mass Atrocities, Stephen McLoughlin contends that positioning prevention simply on identifying and ameliorating risk factors erroneously assumes a linear inevitability between cause and outcome, and thus “fails to explain why some at-risk countries experience mass atrocities, yet others do not” (3). McLoughlin convincingly advocates an …

Political Psychology (Annotated Bibliography), Ingrid J. Haas

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

The field of political psychology explains political behavior as a function of both individual- and group-level psychological processes. While the field is interdisciplinary, political psychologists tend to work in either psychology or political science departments. Although the overall aim is often similar, researchers from each discipline approach the same questions in different ways, and interested scholars are encouraged to examine literatures from both fields. The general approach to research is to focus on individual political attitudes, emotion, beliefs, and behavior, and attempt to explain these phenomena using psychological research and theory. Historical approaches to research in this field often relied …

Legislator Responsiveness, Age, And Internet Proficiency, Sean Stephenson, Michael Barber

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Elected officials should try to establish a relationship with their constituents and keep them well informed by responding to any questions they may have regarding political issues. One way legislators can do this is by responding to emails. Some legislators choose to respond to emails themselves, while others choose to hire people who respond to the emails sent to their campaign email address. Age may be one of the factors that affect the likelihood of whether a legislator chooses to respond to questions from his/her constituents. The purpose of my research is to determine whether a legislator’s age affects her …

A Tall Tale: How Story Frames Can Shape U.S. Public Opinion, Matthew Young, Darren Hawkins

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Presently, U.S. foreign aid only represents about 1% of the total US budget, but according to the Kaiser Family Foundation the majority Americans believe foreign aid to be 28% of the national budget. If that were the case, foreign aid would be more expensive than Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, or all defense spending1. As of 2014, the U.S. Agency for International Development only used data heavy stories when communicating with the public. With such a large public misperception of aid a new method of communication must be found.

Overcoming Cultural Barriers In Thai Elections, Carly Madsen, Joel Selway

Journal of Undergraduate Research

As I finish my undergraduate education at Brigham Young University I am filled with gratitude for the many experiences I have been privileged to have. The climax of my studies in political science occurred this summer as I participated in a mentored research project in Thailand. This experience was particularly special for me, as I served as a missionary in Thailand just over a year ago. Being able to return to Thailand and be with people that I love, doing research on a topic of great interest to me, was the best part about my mentoring experience.

Interpreting China’S New Urban Spaces: State, Market, And Society In Action, Shenjing He, Lily Kong, George C. S. Lin

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Chinese urbanism has long historical roots and has profoundly influenced world civilizations. Yet, the Chinese city has not, until very recently, attracted sustained or intense global attention. In the post-reform era, especially after 1992, the scale and speed of China’s urbanization, and the intricacy of its dynamics and socio-spatial consequences have dwarfed those of other countries in the world. The latest reform era of urban China is characterized by a renewed and thriving urbanism, which manifests itself in the sheer scale of new urban space (re)production and the intricate interrelationships among the state, market, and society. The proliferation of new …

The Politics Of Middle Class Decline And Growth In Industrialized Democracies, 1980 To 2010, Young-Hwan Byun

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This research explains why some industrialized democracies have experienced middle class decline while others have experienced middle class growth since the 1980s. The prevailing political science literature based on the median voter theory predicts that middle class decline should not occur in democracies, whereas economic theories fail to explain national variation of middle class decline by attributing the decline to common developments such as globalization or technological change. I analyze data from the Luxembourg Income Study Database, the Comparative Welfare States Dataset, and the Comparative Welfare Entitlement Dataset, and demonstrate a significant partisan effect on middle class decline. I argue …

The Hermeneutics Of International Trade Conflicts: U.S. Punitive Trade Policy Towards China And Japan, Barry F. Murdaco

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation analyzes punitive trade conflicts between the U.S. and two trading partners: China and Japan. Punitive trade conflicts can be defined as trade wars between two states, retaliatory tariffs, or other forms of conflict, e.g. preventing the acquisition of foreign assets or sanctions for an undervalued exchange rate. I will examine several trade conflicts between the U.S. and Japan in the 1980s and several trade conflicts between the U.S. and China from 2001 to the present. This study is situated within a larger debate concerning the resolution of four theoretical "puzzles" in political science. The first concerns the dispute …

Unfaithful Allies: Local Resistance And The Failure Of Statebuilding, Ervin Kallfa

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Unfaithful Allies: Local resistance and the failure of statebuilding in the Western Balkans

Adviser: Professor Susan Woodward

International efforts to build strong and legitimate states in developing societies often present a paradox. In many instances they are undermined by the resistance of very local actors with whom the Union partners up. The form that this resistance takes varies by country. In some instances the domestic partners show open defiance. In other cases they formally conform, while working behind the scene to undermine statebuilding.

My dissertation examines the factors that shape the domestic resistance to statebuilding projects by examining EU statebuilding …

The Dream Defaulted: Foreclosure, Crisis, And Hope In Baltimore, Maryland, And Detroit, Michigan, Heidi M. Rafferty-Reijm

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In the United States, the late 2000s were a time of crisis that tested many urban decision-makers. The recession that started in 2007 was defined by a severe crash in the housing market and the proliferation of mortgage foreclosures across the country. Foreclosures occurred in urban, suburban, and rural communities, but had a particularly devastating impact on larger, older cities and their low and moderate-income neighborhoods. These cities had been dealing with economic and population decline for half a century. In many of their urban neighborhoods, foreclosures affected as many as one in four households and added yet another challenge …

The Politics Of Court Driven Morality Policy: A Comparative Analysis Of Abortion And Same-Sex Marriage 1971-2015, Korey L. Hughes

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

My dissertation had two principal components. First was the development of an argument outlining the five critical differences between abortion and same-sex marriage policy, which highlight the current insufficiency of the existing morality politics framework. These differences were: the duration of the issue, whether it demonstrated an incrementalist of a punctuated equilibrium theory of policy change, the scope of conflict, the degree of institutional entrenchment within the two parties, and the social construction of stakeholders. I then advanced five hypotheses to explain why these differences between the two policy areas in both process and outcome existed, for the purpose of …

The Thai Military, Coups, And The False Hope Of Professionalism, Jacob Ricks

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Thailand is one of the most coup-prone countries in the world, having experienced no less than 19 coup attempts since 1932. The prevalence of military interventions casts doubt on whether Thai politicians will ever be able to reign in their armed counterparts. One prominent response to this concern claims that through increasing the level of military professionalism, or expertise, social responsibility, and organizational unity, Thai troops could be tamed and the Army’s propensity to intervene in politics curbed. This, though, is a false hope.

Could Latinos Choose The Next President? States In Which Latinos Could Determine The Margin Of Victory In The 2016 Presidential Election, Laird W. Bergad

Center for Latin American, Caribbean, and Latino Studies

This special report in partnership with CNN en Espanol examines characteristics of states in which the Latino electorate could determine victory in the 2016 presidential election. Methods: Data were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, Voting and Registration, as a part of the Current Population Survey data from the November Voter Supplements. The 2016 estimates were derived by using the yearly percentage rate of increase between 2004 and 2012. Additional data were derived from an analysis of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) American Community Survey (ACS). Results: In Florida Latinos comprise a large share of the electorate and …

Research In Brief - Can They Teach Each Other? : The Restructuring Of Higher Education And The Rise Of Undergraduate Student “Teachers” In Ontario, Jennifer Massey, Sean Field

Journal of Critical Scholarship on Higher Education and Student Affairs

Changes to public funding regimes, coupled with transformations in how universities are managed and measured have altered the methods for educating undergraduate students. The growing reliance on teaching fellows, teaching assistants, and increasingly undergraduate peer educators (administering Supplemental Instruction [SI] programs) is promoted as a means toachieve a greater “return on investment” in the delivery of postsecondary education. Neoliberal discourses legitimating this downloading of teaching labour suggest it offers a “win-win” solution to the “problem” of educating growing numbers of undergraduate students. It proposes universities can deliver the same curricula, and achieve the same “outcomes” (primarily measured through grades and …

A Precautionary Tale, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

No abstract provided.