Models and Methods Commons^™

Natural Phenomena As Potential Influence On Social And Political Behavior: The Earth’S Magnetic Field, Jackie R. East

Theses and Dissertations--Political Science

Researchers use natural phenomena in a number of disciplines to help explain human behavioral outcomes. Research regarding the potential effects of magnetic fields on animal and human behavior indicates that fields could influence outcomes of interest to social scientists. Tests so far have been limited in scope. This work is a preliminary evaluation of whether the earth’s magnetic field influences human behavior it examines the baseline relationship exhibited between geomagnetic readings and a host of social and political outcomes. The emphasis on breadth of topical coverage in these statistical trials, rather than on depth of development for any one model, …

How Civil Society Represents Women: Feminists, Catholics, And Mobilization Strategies In Africa, Alice J. Kang

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

In recent years, civil society has risen to speak on behalf of underrepresented groups in Africa. In particular, civil society has advocated for the representation of women’s interests. Yet, relatively little is known about the full range of actors who seek the representation of women’s interests, mobilize around women’s issues, and articulate specific preferences. Some of these actors include not only feminists, but also religious activists who may clash over women’s issues. This gap in knowledge, moreover, extends to non-democratic countries. Who in civil society seeks to influence the representation of women’s interests and how, in both democratic and authoritarian …

Using Big Data And Quantitative Methods To Estimate And Fight Modern Day Slavery, Monti Narayan Datta

Political Science Faculty Publications

Given the hidden, criminal nature of contemporary slavery, empirically estimating the proportion of the population enslaved at the national and global level is a challenge. At the same time, little is understood about what happens to the lives of the survivors of slavery once they are free. I discuss some data collection methods from two nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) I have worked with that shed light on these issues. The first NGO, the Walk Free Foundation, estimates that there are about 30 million enslaved in the world today. The second NGO, Free the Slaves, employs a longitudinal analysis to chronicle the …

Reflections On The Metamorphosis At Robben Island: The Role Of Institutional Work And Positive Psychological Capital, Wayne F. Cascio, Fred Luthans

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

Nelson Mandela and other political prisoners from South Africa were imprisoned on notorious Robben Island from the mid-1960s until the end of the apartheid regime in 1991. The stark conditions and abusive treatment of these prisoners has been widely publicized. However, upon reflection and in retrospect, over the years, a type of metamorphosis occurred. Primarily drawing from firsthand accounts of the former prisoners and guards, it seems that Robben Island morphed from the traditional oppressive prison paradigm to one where the positively oriented prisoners disrupted the institution with a resulting climate of learning and transformation that eventually led to freedom …

Examining The Distinct Effects Of Emotive Triggers On Public Reactions To International Terrorism, Cigdem Sirin, Nehemia Geva

Selected Works Temporary Series

In recent years, a growing body of research has set out to examine the role that emotions play in shaping political attitudes and behaviors regarding terrorism. However, one major issue that is generally overlooked is whether the thematic relevance of emotive triggers leads to differential effects on people's reactions to international terrorism. Specifically, does anger—regardless of its source—tend to drive people towards supporting an aggressive foreign policy option to counter terrorism, or do the thematic underpinnings of anger (i.e., the specific contents that trigger this particular emotion, such as watching a news story about a recent terrorist attack) matter vis-à-vis …

Slavery In Europe: Part 1, Estimating The Dark Figure, Monti Narayan Datta, Kevin Bales

Political Science Faculty Publications

The estimation of the “dark figure” for any crime (the number of actual instances of a specific crime committed minus the reported cases of that crime within a population) has primarily rested on the ability to conduct random sample crime surveys. Such surveys are based on the assumption that victims experience crimes that are discrete, time-bound, and of relatively short duration. The crime of enslavement, however, presents a special challenge to estimation because it is of indeterminate duration. This challenge is compounded by the fact that victims of slavery are also often isolated by the stigma linked to sexual assault, …

Human Development Dynamics: An Agent Based Simulation Of Macro Social Systems And Individual Heterogeneous Evolutionary Games, Mark Abdollahian, Zining Yang, Travis Coan, Birol Yesilada

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Purpose: In the context of modernization and development, a complex adaptive systems framework can help address the coupling of macro social constraint and opportunity with individual agency. Combining system dynamics and agent based modeling, we formalize a simulation approach of the Human Development (HD) perspective to explore the interactive effects of economics, culture, society and politics across multiple human scales.

Methods: Based on a system of asymmetric, coupled nonlinear equations, we first capture the core qualitative logic of HD theory, empirically validated from World Values Survey (WVS) data. Using a simple evolutionary game approach, second we fuse endogenously derived individual …

Data Analysis Using Regression Modeling: Visual Display And Setup Of Simple And Complex Statistical Models, Emil N. Coman, Maria A. Coman, Eugen Iordache, Russell Barbour, Lisa Dierker

Yale Day of Data

We present visual modeling solutions for testing simple and more advanced statistical hypotheses in any research field. All models can be directly specified in analytical software like Mplus or R.

Data analysis in any substantive field can be easily accomplished by translating statistical tests in the intuitive language of regression-based path diagrams with observed and unobserved variables. All models we presented can be directly specified and estimated in analytical software.

Students can particularly benefit from being taught the simple regression modeling setup of the path analytical method, as it empowers them to apply the techniques to any data to test …

Invisible Ink: Intersectionality And Political Inquiry, Dara Z. Strolovich

Indiana Journal of Law and Social Equality

No abstract provided.

Fourth Time's The Charm?: Modeling A Psychologically-Based Peace Iv Program In Northern Ireland, Cailin A. Rogers

The Macalester Review

Abstract: Social conflict has consumed Northern Ireland for centuries. The relationship between Catholic Nationalists and Protestant Loyalists has proved difficult to reconcile–current policy approaches have been unable to attain peace. This paper seeks to explore the gaps in policy created by ignoring the important distinction between the social identities Nationalists and Loyalists have created and which they continue to perpetuate. This paper examines Social identity theory in context of Northern Ireland and applies the psychology of disparate community identities to current policies and trends in Northern Ireland to suggest reasons for a lack of progress towards peace. Unfortunately, contemporary Northern …

A Political Profile Of Nevada’S Latino Population, David F. Damore, John P. Tuman, Maria J.F. Agreda

Brookings Mountain West Publications

Over the course of the past decade, Nevada’s Latino population has grown appreciably. Immigrants from Mexico and other parts of Latin America accounted for most of the growth in the state’s Latino population during this period. Nevertheless, the number of U.S.‐born and naturalized Latinos residing in Nevada has also increased, and this growth has altered the political landscape of the state. Indeed, the density of Latinos in the Nevada’s electorate expanded steadily between 2000 and 2010 (see Figure 3). Although recent studies have pointed to the potential significance of Nevada’s growing Latino electorate, the influences on Latino political participation in …

Validating Estimates Of Latent Traits From Textual Data Using Human Judgment As A Benchmark, Will Lowe, Kenneth Benoit

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Automated and statistical methods for estimating latent political traits and classes from textual data hold great promise, because virtually every political act involves the production of text. Statistical models of natural language features, however, are heavily laden with unrealistic assumptions about the process that generates these data, including the stochastic process of text generation, the functional link between political variables and observed text, and the nature of the variables (and dimensions) on which observed text should be conditioned. While acknowledging statistical models of latent traits to be "wrong," political scientists nonetheless treat their results as sufficiently valid to be useful. …

Making War And Securing Peace: The Viability Of Peace Enforcement As A Mechanism For Promoting And Securing Civil War Termination, Shawn H. Greene

Political Science Honors Projects

Peace enforcement—the threat or use of military force to compel belligerent adherence to a civil war settlement—has become increasingly salient in the past decade. Using a hazards analysis of all civil wars and associated third party interventions between 1945 and 2013 in addition to three structured, focused case studies, I argue that peace enforcement operations that 1) utilize the appropriate typological spoiler management strategy and 2) maintain legitimacy and impartiality through close cooperation with UN peacekeepers, are the most successful at catalyzing civil war termination and securing durable peace. I also provide a theoretical framework through which to study peace …

Guns Of Fortune: How Guns Move To Fulfill Demand, Michael J. Coates

Senior Honors Projects

Legislators face a compelling dilemma, how can they decrease the prevalence of gun violence? Cities and States around the United States have laws intended to prevent violent criminals from acquiring and using weapons, but it remains debatable whether these laws are effective.

This study posits that guns are subject to the laws of supply and demand and the variable gun laws in states across the country decreases the effectiveness of local and state gun legislation. In short, guns are trafficked across state lines to meet demand in states with stricter gun laws.

Data for the study was collected from the …

Imagining Jazzocracy: Notes Toward A New Democratic Subject, Mario Tofano

Dissertations, Masters Theses, Capstones, and Culminating Projects

What does participatory democracy look like? This essay finds an answer in the indigenous art form of the United States—jazz. Political engagement in America must learn from the jazz aesthetic which realizes the communal projects of individuals in concert. After a brief survey of the biological, historical, and cultural formations that construct our political environment this essay advances equaliberty as the foundational concept for the Jazzocrat, the new political subject for tomorrow’s participatory democracy.

Testing Two Explanations Of The Liberal Peace: The Opportunity Cost And Signaling Arguments, Nam Kyu Kim

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

Considerable evidence suggests that economic interdependence and integration reduce the likelihood of militarized conflict. However, scholars have devoted remarkably scant attention to testing different explanations of the liberal peace. This article offers an empirical test that can help adjudicate the two main arguments on the liberal peace: the opportunity cost and signaling arguments. Under the incomplete information assumption, I derive different observable implications of the competing arguments regarding how target states respond when challenged. By estimating selection models comprising dispute initiation and reciprocation, I find that, as challengers are more dependent on bilateral trade, targets are less likely to reciprocate …

Chieftaincy-Based Community Dispute Resolution: The Case Of Sierra Leone, Whitney Mcintyre Miller

Education Faculty Articles and Research

Sierra Leone suffered a destructive 11-year civil war that largely left its communities torn apart and in need of vast redevelopment. One of the ways that communities are rebuilding and making efforts to move forward is through the chieftaincy-based community dispute resolution process. Based on historical norms, this process involves the community leader, or chief, helping to resolve disputes within the community. This article reviews this chieftaincy-based community dispute resolution process, discusses the types of disputes settled, and provides broader lessons learned for communities who may be interested in truly community-based dispute resolution.

Slavery Is Bad For Business: Analyzing The Impact Of Slavery On National Economies, Monti Narayan Datta, Kevin Bales

Political Science Faculty Publications

This article, using a novel dataset, demonstrates that slavery is empirically bad for business. Building upon the work of Robert Smith, the authors analysis examines the relationship between the prevalence of slavery in a country (in terms of the proportion of the population enslaved) and several economic measures (the United Nations Human Development Index, growth domestic product in terms of purchasing power parity, access to financial services, and the Gini coefficient). In each instance, controlling for alternative explanations, greater levels of slavery are associated with a decline in economic growth and human development. The findings imply that beyond the morality …

An Analysis Of The Effectiveness Of The Director Of National Intelligence (Dni) In Uniting The Intelligence Community, Bethany G. Pico

Senior Honors Theses

September 11, 2001 marks the date of the largest attack on American soil since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor during World War II. This event not only changed the lives of individuals who suffered intense loss but changed the course of American history in several ways. This paper focuses specifically on the changes in the intelligence community since the attacks. The attacks that 9/11 presented flaws in the system created demonstrating weakness as a direct result of the immense destruction that occurred. The thesis of this paper is to analyze, assess, and draw conclusions on the effectiveness of the …

Social Media And The Transformation Of The Humanitarian Narrative: A Comparative Analysis Of Humanitarian Discourse In Libya 2011 And Bosnia 1994, Ellen Noble

Political Science Honors Projects

Within humanitarian discourse, there is a prevailing narrative: the powerful liberal heroes are saving the helpless, weak victims. However, the beginning of the 21^st century marks the expansion of the digital revolution throughout lesser-developed states. Growing access to the Internet has enabled aid recipients to communicate with the outside world, giving them an unprecedented opportunity to reshape discourses surrounding humanitarianism. Through a comparative discourse analysis of Libyan Tweets, 1994 newspaper reports on Bosnia, and 2011 newspaper reports on Libya, this paper analyzes whether aid recipient discourse can resist the dominant humanitarian narrative and if that resistance can influence dominant …