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Long-Range Trends In Adult Mortality: Models And Projection Methods, John Bongaarts

Poverty, Gender, and Youth

This Population Council working paper has two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates, and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness-of-fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicates that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method based on the shifting mortality model is proposed and compared with the widely …