Diplomacy & Negotiation, Liefke M. Cox

Master of Liberal Studies Theses

Over the course of history when women have been involved in the diplomatic, political, social, and economic structure of a country it has been found they are one of the key ingredients to building an effective and stable democracy. Investing in women strengthens the back bone of any society. Top CEO’s, such as Tupperware’s Rick Goings and Warren Buffett, have also publically supported this assumption. I argue that women in different societies have traits that have been instilled in them culturally which in turn translate directly to their ability to handle diplomatic situations and business negotiations. Societies, however intentionally or …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Creating Knowledge, Volume 6, 2013

Creating Knowledge

It is my great pleasure to introduce the sixth volume of the College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences’ “Creating Knowledge,” our undergraduate student scholarship and research journal. First published in 2008, the journal is the outcome of an initiative to enhance and enrich the academic quality of the student experience within the college. Through this publication, the college seeks to encourage students to become actively engaged in creating scholarship and research and gives them a venue for the publication of their essays.

This sixth volume is, however, unlike the previous ones in one major respect: the papers in this …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Creating A Comprehensive Profile Of The Academic Competitiveness Grant, Kelsea Klein

Political Science Theses and Capstones

The recent push for more Americans to attend postsecondary institutions has led to the development of numerous and far-reaching government student financial aid programs. These programs have aimed at supplying the whole of the population with financial assistance regardless of color, gender, or age. However, the distribution of the aid has encountered many problems as critics argue that the recipients of the aid are primarily limited to a narrow subgroup of the population. A new program created under the Higher Education Reconciliation Act of 2005 called the Academic Competitiveness Grant is no exception. Preliminary logit analysis of the reception rates …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2010, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

2010 annual report reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and appraises the macroeconomic policies in 2010. the report is structured into two parts. Part 1 reviews the corporate operations of the bank, while the part 2 evaluates the performance of the economy against the challenges in both the thrust of monetary policy and other financial measures was to improve liquidity and enhance the efficiency and stability of the financial system without compromising the primary goal of monetary and price stability.

China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Brazil is an increasingly important actor in global governance and for China specifically. Sino-Brazilian relations have deepened considerably but they remain concentrated in areas of trade and investment. There is also considerable overlap in interests between the two countries in other areas, such as diplomatic and political relations. At the same time, China must manage carefully important differences that exist over the enlargement of the UN and the potential challenge to the Brazilian industry.

Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …

Children's Health Insurance Program: The Dynamics Of Federalism And Health Care Policy, Erik White

Political Science Theses and Capstones

On February 4^th, 2009, President Obama signed into law the reauthorization of the Children Health Insurance Program. The federal government will now spend 30 billion dollars towards the goal of ensuring that more children in the United States are insured. I investigate this particular health care policy and look at the different dynamics that affect the ultimate goal of universal health insurance for children. Because this program allows for state flexibility under broad federal guidelines, one is able to look at individual states, and their particular actions and characteristics, to determine the best approach to insuring the most …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2008., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)'s 2008 report evaluates macroeconomic policies and outcomes, focusing on corporate operations and the economy's performance against domestic and external economic and financial developments. The CBN's monetary policy stance and banking and financial measures were deployed to ensure price stability and financial sector soundness. Despite the global economic downturn, the financial system remained relatively stable and overall macroeconomic performance was satisfactory. The formal financial system at end-December 2008 comprised the CBN, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the National Insurance Commission, the National Pension Commission, and various banks. The banking sector …

Fourth Annual Henry Lecture: Families Alone: The Changing Economics Of Rearing Children, Elizabeth Warren

Oklahoma Law Review

No abstract provided.

Statistics, December 1987, Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

This is a statistical representation of the economic activities in Nigeria in December, 1987

Locating In Searcy, Arkansas: A Facts Book For Business And Industry - Individuals And Families, Don P. Diffine Ph.D.

Belden Center Books

Compiled over a six-month period, under the auspices of the Searcy Chamber of Commerce, the 1987 edition of this book was a public service project, containing numerous new and expanded sections. This project was a relevant, practical and interesting experience for the Belden Center staff and, at the same time, it helped Searcy by providing a current and complete course of city information.

Statistical Section (December 1984), Central Bank Of Nigeria Cbn

Economic and Financial Review

This is a statistical representation of economic activities in Nigeria during the fourth quarter of 1984

Labor Relations In Maine 1971-1982, Bureau Of Labor Standards

Maine Collection

Labor Relations in Maine 1971-1982

Prepared by the Bureau of Labor Standards, Research & Statistics Division,

William A. Peabody, Director, April, 1983.

Contents: Authorization / Introduction / Narratives / Tables / Appendices

Locating In Searcy, Arkansas: Facts For Business And Industry (1980), Don P. Diffine Ph.D.

Belden Center Books

Compiled over a six-month period, under the auspices of the Searcy Chamber of Commerce, the 1980 edition of this book was a public service project, containing numerous new and expanded sections. This project was a relevant, practical and interesting experience for the Belden Center staff and, at the same time, it helped Searcy by providing a current and complete course of city information.

How Bad Can Good Data Really Be?, William (Bill) H. Williams

Publications and Research

Bias has different sources. Measurement errors create "bad" data and biased estimates. But selection biases occur even with "good" data and can be both subtle and large in magnitude.

Locating In Searcy, Arkansas: Facts For Business And Industry (1977), Don P. Diffine Ph.D.

Belden Center Books

Compiled over a two-month period, under the auspices of the Searcy Chamber of Commerce, the 1977 edition of this book was a public service project, containing numerous new and expanded sections. This project was a relevant, practical and interesting experience for the Belden Center staff and, at the same time, it helped Searcy by providing a current and complete course of city information.