Public Policy Commons^™

Do Nonprofit Ratings Help Donors Make Better Decisions?, Ashraf Haque

Center for Policy Research

Nonprofit organizations depend on donations to fulfill their missions, but donors choosing among 1.8 million U.S. public charities often lack the time or capacity to evaluate which organizations are actually performing well. This brief summarizes findings from a study that used a five-year panel dataset of over one million nonprofit-year records from GuideStar (2014–2018) to examine how transparency seal ratings affect donation behavior. The author finds that having any GuideStar seal increases donations by about 7% compared to having no seal, and that platinum-rated nonprofits receive 34% more in donations than unrated organizations, regardless of actual organizational quality. Donors do …

Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey

Center for Policy Research

Childbirth is a life event that often disrupts maternal employment and household earnings just as family expenses increase. In the United States, families do not have access to a national paid parental leave program and must rely on a patchwork of safety net programs that were not designed specifically to support households during pregnancy and the immediate postpartum period. This brief uses linked administrative data from the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (2016–2021) to describe changes in household earnings and social welfare benefits before and after childbirth among low-income mothers receiving the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Temporary Assistance for …

Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan

Center for Policy Research

I estimate the mortality and county-level regional economic impacts of hurricane evacuation orders using a novel instrumental variables framework. Relative to similarly affected but non-evacuated areas, evacuated counties experience fewer deaths but lower personal income, employment, and business establishments into the second year following the storm, likely stemming from delayed returns in wealthier neighborhoods. I then develop a threshold decision rule that balances the mortality benefits against these persistent economic costs and apply this framework to orders issued from 2016–2022. Incorporating these persistent economic costs alters policy evaluation: the largest orders generate net benefits that dwarf their costs, but the …

An Introduction To The China Land Sales Data Set: The Universe Of Land-Use-Right Transfers In China 2000-2022, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Qiang Ren

Center for Policy Research

The China Land Sales Data Set (2000-2022) includes the universe of land-use-right sales in China in the first 23 years of the 21st century, a period of the fastest mass urbanization and intense infrastructure construction in China’s history, that accompanied the rapid growth of China’s economy and household income. For this reason, this data set carries substance in many ways for anyone who needs to understand the occurrences in China of that period. The phrase “land sale” refers to the transfer of land-use right from the state as the sole owner of urban land to any individual, firm or entity …

The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco

Center for Policy Research

Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students’ academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy’s threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive …

How Shale Boom-Era Municipal Debt Could Undermine Community Resilience During The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles

Center for Policy Research

Local governments in oil and gas-producing regions took on significant municipal debt during the U.S. shale boom to build schools, water systems, and other infrastructure to accommodate rapid population growth. This brief uses Mergent municipal bond issuance data and interviews with local government officials to describe debt accumulation in shale boom communities (N=2,519 counties; 2004–2015) and its implications for the energy transition. The author finds that shale boom communities accumulated approximately $782 more in municipal debt per capita than comparable communities, a 26% increase totaling $1.9 billion across 58 shale boom counties. If production declines and newer residents leave, the …

The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Deepen The Farm Crisis, Not Solve It, Rebecca Schewe, Rick Welsh

Center for Policy Research

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) promises billions in new farm subsidies, but most of that money won’t go to the farmers who need it most. This brief describes how the OBBB’s changes to agricultural subsidy programs will disproportionately benefit large farms and non-farming investors, accelerating farm loss and consolidation across the United States. The authors argue that without reforms, the OBBB will inflate land values, raise barriers for new and small farmers, and further fuel absentee farmland investment. The authors also identify four reforms policymakers should enact to prevent these devastating consequences, including tightening payment limits and closing loopholes, …

Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul

Center for Policy Research

This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …

Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how increased immigration enforcement in the destination country impacts labor markets in the origin country. Using variation in Mexican migrant networks and Secure Communities (SC), a policy which expanded local immigration enforcement, I show that the deportation of Mexican migrants from the U.S. increases return migration to Mexico and decreases monthly earnings for workers in Mexico. The negative earnings effects are largest for workers most similar to return migrants in terms of their demographics, occupations, and employment types, and are consistent with increased labor market competition.

Hold Harmless For Whom? The Impact Of Covid Era Policies On School Funding, Teachers, And Students, Michah W. Rothbart, Samantha Cervantes, Amy Ellen Schwartz

Center for Policy Research

This study evaluates the fiscal and academic consequences of New York City’s hold harmless policy during COVID-19, which aimed to stabilize school expenditures amid unexpected enrollment declines by restoring schools’ funding up to initial levels. We examine how school racial composition predicts whether or when schools receive hold harmless “treatment” and assess the impact of hold harmless on financial resources, staffing, and student outcomes, exploring heterogeneity by timing of policy announcement. Although schools with higher White student shares were no more likely than those with higher Hispanic or Black shares to receive hold harmless funds, schools with higher Black shares …

Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines how protection from deportation and work authorization affect immigration outcomes, focusing on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Using a difference-in-differences design exploiting geographic variation in exposure to DACA-eligible immigrants, we find that DACA significantly increased the number of naturalized citizens without increasing the number of noncitizens. This increase is driven by higher naturalization among prior noncitizens, most of whom are likely not DACA beneficiaries. We provide evidence consistent with DACA increasing incentives for, and reducing barriers to, naturalization by protecting undocumented DACA-eligible contacts, suggesting temporary protections can encourage longer-term commitments and permanent residence among existing immigrants.

On The Legal-Theoretical Foundations Of Property Taxation Under State Ownership Of Land, Tianke Ban, Yilin Hou, Ping Zhang

Center for Policy Research

The general public and even some scholars challenge the legitimacy of levying the property tax under conditions where land is state-owned and multi-year land-use fees have already been collected at the time of house sales. This challenge points to the legal- theoretical foundations of property taxation: the core issue is whether the rights and economic utility of China's construction land-use-rights (CLUR) are sufficient to be treated as the object of property tax levy. China's Civil Law stipulates that CLUR holders have the rights to possess, use, and profit from the land during their use period, as well as the right …

Student Disruptions And Teacher Turnover, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines how exposure to disruptive students affects teacher retention using linked teacher–student administrative records from North Carolina. To address non-random classroom assignment, we instrument for classroom exposure using the school-by-grade share of disruptive students based on prior-year disciplinary infractions. A 10 percentage point increase in the share of disruptive students raises the probability of an early-career teacher leaving the school in the following year by 1.0 percentage points. Notably, working in a school environment with supportive leadership and greater teacher autonomy, particularly around student conduct policies, mitigates the impact of student disruptions.

Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how neighborhood density affects residential carbon emissions, using detailed data from Indonesia and the Philippines. To address simultaneity, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and to address sorting, we control for community averages of observed characteristics. Unlike cities in developed countries, we find that density is positively correlated with residential energy use. After controlling for sorting, we find a precise null relationship between density and residential carbon emissions. Our results suggest that policies to control urban sprawl may not be successful in reducing residential carbon emissions in developing country cities.

A Policy Reversal As Structural Break: A Lesson From China’S Land Lease Financing For Infrastructure, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Lei Shao

Center for Policy Research

Land-based revenues as a fiscal instrument to finance infrastructure tie public investment to real estate markets, where demand fluctuations cause fiscal consequences. This paper takes policy reversals as structural breaks and examines their impacts on infrastructure investment. We dissect China’s 2016 policy reversal that disallowed developers to finance land purchase with debt, causing sharp declines in local government land revenues, slashing their fiscal base for infrastructure investment. Using prefecture-level panel data and continuous difference-in-differences identification, we estimate the reversal reduced land-lease revenues by 55%. Two-stage least squares estimates suggest a 10% land-revenue decline translates into 6.6% investment reduction. Decomposing the …

Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina

Center for Policy Research

Many New York State school districts spend significant amounts each year for retiree health care benefits, and these payments are expected to grow over the coming decades. This brief summarizes findings from a study examining approximately 300 New York State school districts. Unlike retiree pension plans, which are typically prefunded, retiree health care benefits are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that benefits for past employees who are currently retired are paid using current district revenues. In the average school district, pay-as-you-go spending currently amounts to 4.5 percent of district revenues. Assuming current benefit and funding policies remain, spending is …

Asian College Students' Well-Being During A Period Of Rising Anti-Asian Sentiment, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu

Center for Policy Research

We use a large survey of students in U.S. colleges to study the distinct ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying anti-Asian rhetoric shaped the experiences of Asian and Pacific Islanders (APIs). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the pandemic led to Asian students experiencing more discrimination, feeling less safe during the day, and using fewer mental health services compared to White peers. The increase in discrimination and the perceived lower safety are concentrated among East and Southeast Asians, while South Asians were not affected. Despite these effects, we detect no relative deterioration in severe psychological distress or …

A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang

Center for Policy Research

Many developing countries are planning to create new capital cities, a place-making policy designed to alleviate congestion and respond to climate change. To evaluate growth and welfare effects, we specify a dynamic quantitative spatial model with public employment, informality, fiscal transfers, and frictions in trade and migration. We calibrate the model with data from Indonesia and conduct policy experiments studying the creation of Nusantara in East Kalimantan. Despite increasing employment in the new capital region, we find that building Nusantara reduces national growth and welfare. Climate change attenuates its negative welfare effects, but only slightly.

Housing Market Responses To Constrained Mobility Rights - Evidence From A School Enrollment Reform For Migrant Children, Yilin Hou, Jinghua Qi, Yugang Tang

Center for Policy Research

Mobility matches open housing markets. With constrained mobility and partially open housing markets, market responses reflect the constraints. We study this mechanism by examining disparity in access to public schools across socio-economic groups, focusing on properties near primary schools accessible to migrant students under social integration policies in a Chinese megacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we uncover complex spatial and market dynamics: while house prices close to ordinary primary schools remained relatively stable, house prices farther away declined markedly. This differential impact suggests the interaction between a potential "peer effect" and an "amenity effect." The rental rates showed little change …

Student Alienation In Schools Goes Beyond Low Achievement, Sean J. Drake, Jeffrey Guhin

Center for Policy Research

When we think about students struggling in school, we often focus on grades, test scores, and graduation rates. But there's a deeper problem affecting students across all achievement levels: alienation. Students feel disconnected from school not because they're failing, but because they can't see themselves in the narrow story schools tell about success. This brief summarizes findings from a study drawing on over two years of ethnographic fieldwork in two different high schools in Los Angeles, California. The authors identify four types of alienation students experience: feeling like they don't belong, being in schools that can't support their goals, pursuing …

Public School Districts Should Close Their “Alternative” And “Continuation” High Schools, Sean J. Drake

Center for Policy Research

Public school districts across the country funnel academically struggling students into "alternative" or "continuation" high schools designed to help them catch up on credits and graduate on time. However, these schools often reproduce more inequality than they alleviate. This brief summarizes findings from a two-year ethnographic case study of an alternative high school in suburban Los Angeles, California. The author finds that these schools offer limited curricula and no extracurricular opportunities, while Black, Latino, and low-income students are vastly overrepresented compared to district averages. Students transferred to alternative schools are also more likely to drop out than low-performing peers who …

Why Aren’T More People Calling 988 For Mental Health Crises?, Michiko Ueda, Colleen M. Heflin, Yanhong Liu, Qingyi Yu, Seethalakshmi Ramanathan

Center for Policy Research

When someone is in a mental health crisis, calling 911 has long been the default response. However, 911 call centers are not well-equipped to handle mental health emergencies, and law enforcement dispatch can result in unnecessary arrests, hospitalizations, or crisis escalation. The 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline launched in 2022 is a free, confidential alternative, yet awareness remains low and misconceptions persist. Using data from a 2024 national online survey of nearly 1,900 U.S. adults ages 18-50, this brief summarizes findings about awareness of 988, willingness to use it, and concerns about the service. Results show that only 22% of …

China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao

Center for Policy Research

As part of its turn towards domestic-led growth China plans to stimulate consumption, including through a reduction in consumption taxes. We compare two model-based scenarios in which the revenue losses from lower consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes or higher land taxes. The model is carefully calibrated to recent Chinese data, including detailed fiscal data. We find that higher income taxes lead to significant losses in output and incomes, while higher land taxes lead to significant gains. These gains are increasing in the share of land in net wealth, a statistic for which better data would be invaluable.

Rising Waters, Falling Taxes: The Impact Of Hurricane Sandy On Property Tax Assessments In New York City, Wei Guo, Qing Miao, Yusun Kim, Yilin Hou

Center for Policy Research

Climate disasters pose fiscal challenges for local governments by increasing recovery costs and demand for property tax relief. Homeowners with or without property damage face tax burdens that may not match changes to their property value. This study examines the impact of Hurricane Sandy on property values and tax assessments in New York City. Using a difference-in-differences approach and comprehensive property-level data, we find that (1) inundated properties faced greater tax burdens due to limited declines in taxable value; (2) unaffected properties in flood zones saw tax burden increases due to declining market values and unchanged taxable values; and (3) …

Debt Accumulation In Fossil Fuel-Reliant Localities During The Shale Boom And Implications For The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles

Center for Policy Research

The energy transition away from fossil fuels poses long-term economic risks for communities reliant on oil and natural gas production and some may face exceptionally difficult challenges in adapting to the change. Bonds issued by these localities during the shale boom may undermine their financial resilience as shale activity dwindles. Declining tax revenue may undermine their ability to service the debt and maintain the associated physical assets. This study addresses the extent to which local governments in oil- and natural gas-producing communities accumulated significantly more municipal debt during the shale boom than other communities. The analysis uses bond issuance data …

Policy Recommendations To Reduce Old Age Food Insecurity In The United States, Colleen M. Heflin, Madonna Harrington Meyer

Center for Policy Research

In 2023, 7.4 million adults ages 60 and over in the United States were food insecure. As the number of older people at risk of food insecurity in the U.S. continues to rise, effective policy responses are critical. The current policy responses to old age food insecurity are complex, costly, and not nearly effective enough.

Based on the book, Food for Thought: Understanding Older Adults Food Insecurity, this brief summarizes five policy recommendations to improve food insecurity among U.S. older adults. The authors recommend measuring food security in multidimensional ways, treating food insecurity as a health issue, adopting SNAP …

Why Are Food System Workers Excluded From Local Food Policy Councils?, Frank Sarfo, Laura-Anne Minkoff-Zern, Jonnell A. Robinson

Center for Policy Research

One in seven workers in the United States is employed in food labor jobs, yet these jobs are among the lowest paid and least regulated in the country. Food Policy Councils (FPCs) have emerged to expand the benefits of food systems, however, few FPCs have prioritized food system labor concerns. This brief summarizes findings from a study that used data from the 2016-2023 Food Policy Network’s national survey as well as focus groups and interviews with over 25 FPC representatives and leaders to examine the challenges and barriers that have limited FPCs’ engagement with labor issues. The authors find that …

Inequality And Covid Risk At School: Racial Disparities In Indoor Density, Vaccination Rates, And Consequences For Absenteeism, Michael C. Quinn, Michah W. Rothbart, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Brian Elbel

Center for Policy Research

During the COVID pandemic, schools were widely believed to be a venue that facilitated disease transmission. While some worried Black and Hispanic students would disproportionately face greater risk of COVID exposure at school (school COVID risk) – given well-documented racially disparate school environments and resources – little empirical evidence exists documenting or refuting potential disparities in school COVID risk. This paper begins to fill this gap by examining racial disparities in the school environments that contribute to COVID risk at school—specifically, vaccination rates and classroom space per pupil (indoor density) - in New York City elementary schools. We then document …

How Does Snap Access Prior To Pregnancy Affect Maternal And Infant Health Outcomes?, Sarah Hamersma, Mitch Mcfarlane

Center for Policy Research

Consistent access to healthy food even before pregnancy can play a role in maternal and child health. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides food assistance to low-income individuals, including those who do not yet have children (often classified as Able-Bodied Adults Without Dependents, or ABAWDs). Our study uses ABAWD work requirement waivers – which vary within and across counties over a 15-year-period – as a measure of SNAP access for childless women. We use this variation to investigate pre-pregnancy SNAP access and the health of mothers and their infants. Using rich, population-wide Vital Statistics data combined with county-level SNAP …

How Can Public Sector Employers Improve The Effectiveness Of Email Recruitment?, Leonard M. Lopoo, Robert Bifulco, Hannah Patnaik, Ashraf Haque, Christine Ashby, George Theoharis

Center for Policy Research

With the constant deluge of listservs, email advertisements, and phishing scams, many email recipients have become accustomed to deleting emails from unknown sources without ever reading them. Knowing what can increase the likelihood of email engagement may improve the effectiveness of email communications in job recruitment. This brief summarizes findings from a study that reports results from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a mass email campaign to recruit applicants for a training program for K-12 teaching jobs. The authors compared email open rates between emails that contained a letter with university logos signed by a university official versus emails …