Public Policy Commons^™

Balancing Science And Public Policy In Pakistan's Covid-19 Response, Zulfiqar Ahmed Bhutta, Faisal Sultan, Aamer Ikram, Adil H. Haider, Assad Hafeez, Muhammad Islam

Department of Paediatrics and Child Health

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected the world in an unprecedented manner and South Asian countries were among the first to experience imported cases. Pakistan's response to COVID-19 has been under scrutiny for its granularity, reach and impact.
Aims: to evaluate objectively the chronology and depth of the response to COVID-19 in Pakistan.
Methods: We evaluated available national and subnational epidemiological and burden information on COVID-19 cases and deaths in Pakistan, including projection models available to the Government at an early stage of the pandemic.
Results: Pakistan, with a population of 215 million and considerable geographic diversity, experienced case …

Short-Range Forecasting Of Covid-19 During Early Onset At County, Health District, And State Geographic Levels Using Seven Methods: Comparative Forecasting Study, Christopher Lynch, Ross Gore

VMASC Publications

BACKGROUND:

Forecasting methods rely on trends and averages of prior observations to forecast COVID-19 case counts. COVID-19 forecasts have received much media attention, and numerous platforms have been created to inform the public. However, forecasting effectiveness varies by geographic scope and is affected by changing assumptions in behaviors and preventative measures in response to the pandemic. Due to time requirements for developing a COVID-19 vaccine, evidence is needed to inform short-term forecasting method selection at county, health district, and state levels.

OBJECTIVE:

COVID-19 forecasts keep the public informed and contribute to public policy. As such, proper understanding of forecasting purposes …