Public Administration Commons^™

Analyzing The Interplay Between Public Pension Finances And Government Finances: Lessons From Linking An Economic Model To A Pension Fund Model, Yimeng Yin, Donald Boyd

Public Administration and Policy Faculty Scholarship

Public pension funds invest in stock, bonds, and other assets in an effort to keep the costs to governments of funding pensions low. Researchers have examined the investment-related risks to public pension funds, to the governments that contribute to them, and to stakeholders in pension funds and governments, using stochastic simulation models of pension fund finances.

These models generally use simple investment return assumptions, such as that returns are drawn from a normal distribution, are independent from year to year, and are not correlated with the governmental tax revenue needed to pay pension contributions. Because investment returns and tax revenue …