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Medicaid Forecasting Practices, Dan Williams

Publications and Research

This paper examines forecasting activities among Medicaid agencies in the fifty United States, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories (American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands). Most frequently, studies of state or local forecasting practice focus on revenue forecasting. There are several reasons why comparison of state Medicaid forecast practice may be better than comparison of state revenue forecasting practices. First, there is no consistent reporting of state revenue estimates. States make forecasts when it suits them and report them in a manner that is satisfactory to their governors or legislatures. Collection of data through national …