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Articles 1 - 30 of 110
Full-Text Articles in Peace and Conflict Studies
Play The Players For Winning Peace: Complexity Analytics With The Uk-Ireland Good Friday Agreement As A Case Study, Bilal M. Ayyub
Play The Players For Winning Peace: Complexity Analytics With The Uk-Ireland Good Friday Agreement As A Case Study, Bilal M. Ayyub
New England Journal of Public Policy
This article presents an innovative framework for analyzing and resolving intractable conflicts through the lens of complexity analytics. By conceptualizing conflicts as complex adaptive systems with fractal properties, we introduce a multifaceted methodology that integrates game theory, network analysis, cognitive science, and artificial intelligence (AI) to comprehend and influence conflict dynamics across multiple scales. The approach emphasizes ‘playing the players’ rather than focusing solely on the immediate conflict situation, drawing insights from poker strategy and AI-driven decision-making processes. This strategy involves understanding the psychological profiles, risk attitudes, and decision-making patterns of key actors, allowing for more nuanced and effective interventions. …
Gerald Templer's Leadership In The Malayan Emergency (1948-1960): Its Enduring Relevance, Kumar Ramakrishna
Gerald Templer's Leadership In The Malayan Emergency (1948-1960): Its Enduring Relevance, Kumar Ramakrishna
New England Journal of Public Policy
This article explores the leadership contributions of General Sir Gerald Templer, who was both High Commissioner and Director of Operations, during the counterinsurgency campaign waged by the British colonial authorities in Malaya against the Malayan Communist Party, between 1948 and 1960. This campaign has become known as the Malayan Emergency. The article explores how Templer’s leadership—marked by a combination of high intellect, sound practical nous, and the ability to galvanize governmental action and ultimately inspire the population to eventual victory—was instrumental in transforming the nature of the problematic initial British response to the Communist insurgency. The article suggests that Templer’s …
Front Matter And Table Of Contents
Front Matter And Table Of Contents
New England Journal of Public Policy
Front matter and table of contents for Volume 37, Issue 1 of the New England Journal of Public Policy.
What Future For Peace In A World Characterized By Uncertainty And Fear?, Cedric De Coning, John, Lord Alderdice
What Future For Peace In A World Characterized By Uncertainty And Fear?, Cedric De Coning, John, Lord Alderdice
New England Journal of Public Policy
After World War II the leading victorious powers put in place a series of structures that became known as the ‘rules-based international order.’ Its purpose was to prevent another global conflict, and for Western countries the method was the promotion of liberal democracy. During succeeding decades, the commitment to building and securing a more peaceful world order saw the establishment of political, security, and economic institutions and civil society organizations that worked to implement it. However, the last decade has seen the increasing fragmentation and dissolution of this rules-based order and those who worked to develop it are having increasing …
Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley
Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley
New England Journal of Public Policy
This issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy, again with Lord John Alderdice as guest editor, examined how wars end. The articles complement those in the previous issue on the Changing Character of War and Peacemaking.
Ending Wars In Times Of Uncertainty: Moral Leadership, Memory, And The Cost Of Peace, Eva Grosman
Ending Wars In Times Of Uncertainty: Moral Leadership, Memory, And The Cost Of Peace, Eva Grosman
New England Journal of Public Policy
In our era of ‘liquid modernity,’ ending wars requires more than ceasing hostilities—it demands ethical frameworks that address the deeper wounds of conflict. This article examines how peace processes frequently abandon those who sacrificed most, creating narratives of betrayal that undermine future stability. Using Poland’s post–World War II experience as a case study, it demonstrates how prioritizing geopolitical expediency over justice creates lasting damage to international order. Drawing on Zygmunt Bauman’s concept of liquid times, Anne Applebaum’s work on memory and abandonment, and Jonathan Sacks’s vision of moral leadership, the article argues that sustainable peace requires attention to dignity, inclusion, …
Ending War, But Beginning Peace?, Alain Tschudin
Ending War, But Beginning Peace?, Alain Tschudin
New England Journal of Public Policy
The end of war, conventionally marked by the implementation of a ceasefire agreement, is popularly celebrated and politically lauded in the aftermath of extreme violence. However, the so- called “silencing of the guns” is regarded only as “negative peace” or first steps away from direct violence. What about beginning Peace? Johan Galtung, esteemed for his life work in peace studies, suggests that the situation after the cessation of hostilities might be worse than the status quo ante. With reference to contemporary violent conflict in the Middle East, focusing on hostilities between Israel and Palestine, I suggest that pursuing lasting “positive …
Examining Shifts In Group-Based Motivations For Civil Conflicts In Libya, Michael D. Buhrmester, William B. Swann Jr., Brian Mcquinn, Alexis Everington, Layal Hafid, Harvey Whitehouse
Examining Shifts In Group-Based Motivations For Civil Conflicts In Libya, Michael D. Buhrmester, William B. Swann Jr., Brian Mcquinn, Alexis Everington, Layal Hafid, Harvey Whitehouse
New England Journal of Public Policy
This study examines shifting group alignments in Libya from 2011 to 2019, exploring their impact on continued conflict. Following up on our original research into group bonding among insurgents during the 2011 revolution, we conducted two surveys in Benghazi: first in 2015, during the aftermath of Operation Dignity, and again in 2019, as General Khalifa Haftar’s forces waged war against Tripoli. Our results show that the previously very strong group bonds with 2011 revolutionary fighters had dissipated by 2015, replaced by allegiance to Haftar’s militias. By 2019, this alignment extended to Haftar himself, reinforcing an “us versus them” mentality that …
How Gaza Sees The 2023-2025 War And The Future Of The Israel-Palestine Conflict, Scott Atran, Laura Rodriguez-Gómez, Kamil Yilmaz, Ángel Gómez
How Gaza Sees The 2023-2025 War And The Future Of The Israel-Palestine Conflict, Scott Atran, Laura Rodriguez-Gómez, Kamil Yilmaz, Ángel Gómez
New England Journal of Public Policy
In political science and international relations, as in foreign policy and military circles, a debate is ongoing between “realists” and “moralists” regarding the importance of material factors (territory, economy, security, etc.) versus value-laden factors (justice, ideals, identity, etc.) in motivating, sustaining, and ending wars. An early 2025 representative survey of Gaza’s population considers both sets of factors in how Gazans perceive the present and future states of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Comparisons with our previous studies in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe aim to extend this survey’s relevance beyond the current Israel-Palestine theater. The survey suggests that after waging …
Understanding The Underlying Motivations Of The Russia-Ukraine War, John Bell
Understanding The Underlying Motivations Of The Russia-Ukraine War, John Bell
New England Journal of Public Policy
Conflict resolution often focuses on material interests or trust building rather than the core psychological needs of the sides. Mapping the key emotional red lines of parties and addressing them creatively may offer new opportunities for peace. This article examines such an approach for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with reflection on the Middle East where such a mapping of needs has begun. This approach leads to the concept of mutual needs satisfaction, where all sides’ critical red lines are addressed, if imperfectly. This is discussed regarding Russia, Ukraine, and the West today. As former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat demonstrated by going …
Subnational Diplomacy As 'Positive Fragmentation': Our Best Hope For A Peaceful Collapse Of The Nation-State?, Alison R. Holmes
Subnational Diplomacy As 'Positive Fragmentation': Our Best Hope For A Peaceful Collapse Of The Nation-State?, Alison R. Holmes
New England Journal of Public Policy
The current phase of globalization is one of fundamental erosion in the efficacy of the territorial nation-state and slow implosion of traditional sovereignty-based models of the state system. Combined with the breakdown of the rationalist-universalist ‘consensus,’ sub-state entities up and down the “vertical axis” of diplomacy are increasingly asserting mutually exclusive concepts of power and self-determination that could lead to a potential fragmentation of the basic structures of governance. Linear theories of state development and traditional definitions of sovereignty, with its consequent forms of recognition, urgently need to be revised or the likelihood of a continued disruption of international collaboration, …
Political And Psychological Effects Of Political Public Art In Conflict Zones, Leora Sotto, Caryl Sibbett
Political And Psychological Effects Of Political Public Art In Conflict Zones, Leora Sotto, Caryl Sibbett
New England Journal of Public Policy
This article will explore the topic of conflict-related visual-political media displayed in public in Israel and Northern Ireland, such as posters, banners, and murals. We will discuss examples of such political public art, looking at graphic characteristics as well as several multi-faceted topics that tend to appear: first, the topic of victim / victimizer, art expressing feelings of aggression, blaming, injustice, or pain; second, cross-cultural similarities and differences in the art expression; third, art promoting peace. We will reflect on these from a psychotherapy perspective, noting themes of trauma and dis/empowerment. We will discuss visual art and war, their interaction, …
Preventing War As Ending War: The European Network Remembrance And Solidarity On Channeling Potential Conflict Through Dialogue On History, Rafal Rogulski
Preventing War As Ending War: The European Network Remembrance And Solidarity On Channeling Potential Conflict Through Dialogue On History, Rafal Rogulski
New England Journal of Public Policy
Dialogue about history is an important element in the processes of ordering social and international reality. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries in Europe alone, we have experienced so many dramas that virtually every country and its citizens have issues in their history that call for prolonged and consistent dialogue, often in an international setting. Colonialism, wars, totalitarian and authoritarian regimes, genocide, forced displacement—we have a lot to talk about in Europe when it comes to history. The establishment and activities of the European Network Remembrance and Solidarity provide an example of how international discourse on history can be conducted …
Introduction, John, Lord Alderdice
Introduction, John, Lord Alderdice
New England Journal of Public Policy
Introduction for Volume 37, Issue 1 of the New England Journal of Public Policy.
Solving Global Problems Requires Global Cohesion, Harvey Whitehouse, John, Lord Alderdice, Carlos Alvarado Quesada, Peter Gluckman, Hakima El Haité, Lukas Reinhardt
Solving Global Problems Requires Global Cohesion, Harvey Whitehouse, John, Lord Alderdice, Carlos Alvarado Quesada, Peter Gluckman, Hakima El Haité, Lukas Reinhardt
New England Journal of Public Policy
A growing body of evidence from evolutionary anthropology and social psychology suggests that group cohesion can be scaled up beyond the level of nations and even regional blocs and transnational religions to encompass humanity at large. This article brings together insights from globally renowned political leaders, activists, and academics by arguing that this scaling up is not only possible but necessary to address the most pressing collective action problems facing our planet today. Drawing on evidence from experiments, longitudinal studies, and multi-country surveys, along with extensive practical experience—from serving as a head of state to playing leading roles in climate …
Employing Multi-Agent Ai To Model Conflict And Cooperation In Northern Ireland, Katherine O'Lone, Michael Gantley, Justin E. Lane, F. Leron Shults
Employing Multi-Agent Ai To Model Conflict And Cooperation In Northern Ireland, Katherine O'Lone, Michael Gantley, Justin E. Lane, F. Leron Shults
New England Journal of Public Policy
In this article, we outline the development of a multi-agent artificial intelligence (MAAI) model for post-conflict Northern Ireland. We discuss the insights it provides into the primary drivers of conflict and cooperation in the post-Agreement era. Analyses reveal that leading drivers of cooperation in the model are fairness and sadness, while the main drivers of conflict are related to anxiety and perceived moral authority. We examine these findings in the context of previous computational modeling efforts in Northern Ireland, the social psychological literature on intergroup conflict, and the current geopolitical landscape. We conclude by advocating for the application of this …
Coping With The Complexity Of The Changing Character Of War: Toward A New Paradigm Of Adaptive Peace, Cedric De Coning
Coping With The Complexity Of The Changing Character Of War: Toward A New Paradigm Of Adaptive Peace, Cedric De Coning
New England Journal of Public Policy
The world has entered a period of heightened geopolitical instability that is compounded by climate change and the emergence of new technologies. The number of conflicts and related deaths are increasing. Dramatic failures in Afghanistan and elsewhere show that the mainstream approach to peace and conflict is no longer effective. The aim of this article is to contribute to re-thinking peace and security in two ways. First, by explaining why trying to influence complex social change process with a determined-design approach is self-defeating. Second, by introducing adaptive peace theory as a normative and functional approach to ending violent conflicts and …
Introduction To The Special Issue, John, Lord Alderdice
Introduction To The Special Issue, John, Lord Alderdice
New England Journal of Public Policy
This issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy, with Lord John Alderdice as the guest editor, examines how, with the advent of sophisticated technologies and AI, the conduct of wars and peacemaking in the opening decades of the twenty-first century has changed, with implications for the future of both and society at large.
The Psychological Risks Of War Between The United States And China, Eugen Koh
The Psychological Risks Of War Between The United States And China, Eugen Koh
New England Journal of Public Policy
The relationship between the United States and China has deteriorated over the past two decades and fears of escalating risks of war are regularly reported in global media. This article explores the psychological factors that contribute to the two superpowers shifting from a collaborative relationship to a competitive relationship, seeing each other as enemies, feeling increasingly threatened by each other, failing to consider the heightened sensitivities that arise from their respective traumatic pasts, triggering the collapse of thinking and unleashing of uncontainable emotionality, escalating accidents to conflict, and escalating conflict to war. It highlights the dangers of ignoring heightened trauma-related …
Front Matter And Table Of Contents
Front Matter And Table Of Contents
New England Journal of Public Policy
Front matter and table of contents for Volume 36, Issue 1 of the New England Journal of Public Policy.
Brothers And Sisters From Another Mother–Promoting Inter-Cultural Understanding, Conflict Reduction, And Solidarity Among Partner Forces In The Sahel, Alain Tschudin, James Smith
Brothers And Sisters From Another Mother–Promoting Inter-Cultural Understanding, Conflict Reduction, And Solidarity Among Partner Forces In The Sahel, Alain Tschudin, James Smith
New England Journal of Public Policy
The dynamics of war have changed markedly from conventional battlefield kinetic encounters to unconventional sub-threshold or asymmetric warfare, with combatants using new tactics and emergent technologies to gain a comparative advantage over their adversaries. In the face of such developments and mindful of globalized extremist challenges, we propose that fresh innovations should be encouraged with respect to the conventional training of international and African partner forces tasked with teaming up to engage security threats in the Sahel region. Accordingly, this article promotes a contemporary peacebuilding approach using a transformative, dialogical methodology that focuses on the promotion of greater inter-cultural understanding …
New Technologies In Wars, Old And New, John, Lord Alderdice
New Technologies In Wars, Old And New, John, Lord Alderdice
New England Journal of Public Policy
Wars are often marked by technological advances and while the front line in the confrontation in the Russia-Ukraine War is between the two countries concerned, many other countries are also involved in bringing a range of weapons to bear. Some, such as drones and satellite communications, are not entirely new, but are playing a greater role than before. They are also being combined with more definitively new technologies such as artificial intelligence. However, the older ways of warfare are still center stage. Not only has there been a return of war in Europe between major powers, but even the trench …
Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley
Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley
New England Journal of Public Policy
This issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy, with Lord John Alderdice as the guest editor, examines how, with the advent of sophisticated technologies and AI, the conduct of wars and peacemaking in the opening decades of the twenty-first century has changed, with implications for the future of both and society at large.
Muscat, Madrid, Ulster, And The Holy Land: The Medrc Model Of Environmental Peacebuilding In A Revived Middle East Peace Process, Ciarán Ó. Cuinn
Muscat, Madrid, Ulster, And The Holy Land: The Medrc Model Of Environmental Peacebuilding In A Revived Middle East Peace Process, Ciarán Ó. Cuinn
New England Journal of Public Policy
Mandated to assist the Middle East peace process through environmental diplomacy, MEDRC, the last surviving institution of that process, has survived through an institutional and operational approach to conflict resolution separate from the rest of the process. Understanding its transferable approach is important in fields of environmental diplomacy and conflict resolution not only in the context of combating transboundary climate and environmental threats but of using these threats as entry points into a peace process. As the international community grapples with the need for a credible solution to the intractable conflict in Israel and Palestine, the MEDRC approach has implications …
The Middle East: From An Inflammable Region To A Resilient Land Of Opportunities–A Case Study Of Ecopeace Middle East's Approach To Conflict And Environmental Action, Yana Abu Taleb, Thalsa-Thiziri Mekaouche
The Middle East: From An Inflammable Region To A Resilient Land Of Opportunities–A Case Study Of Ecopeace Middle East's Approach To Conflict And Environmental Action, Yana Abu Taleb, Thalsa-Thiziri Mekaouche
New England Journal of Public Policy
The Middle East is an inflammable region on multiple levels. The ongoing war between Israel and Hamas, with its overwhelming loss of human lives, has further disrupted the already fragile prospect of peace in the region. It is also ‘inflammable’ from an environmental perspective, insofar as it is considered the most climate vulnerable region on Earth, with an expected 4°C increase in average temperature over the next decades. Yet, through the example of EcoPeace Middle East, an environmental and peacebuilding regional organization working in Jordan, Israel, and Palestine, this article sheds light on a theory of change that seeks to …
Understanding The Indirect Strategy Moment In Global Affairs, Kumar Ramakrishna
Understanding The Indirect Strategy Moment In Global Affairs, Kumar Ramakrishna
New England Journal of Public Policy
This article argues that policymakers need to better grasp what can best be understood as the “indirect strategy moment” in global affairs. It explains what is meant by indirect strategy in the classical strategic thought, before analyzing how indirect strategy has already been applied in the post-Cold War era. The article will then illustrate how indirect strategy is being applied in the cyber, social media, and telecommunications domains, before arguing that adopting “indirect strategy lenses” appears to be rather important in order to better frame current and ongoing geostrategic developments across a range of issues and domains. A recurring theme …
Pioneering The Digital Frontier: Cmi's Approach To Forward-Looking Dialogues, Johanna Poutanen, Felix Kufus
Pioneering The Digital Frontier: Cmi's Approach To Forward-Looking Dialogues, Johanna Poutanen, Felix Kufus
New England Journal of Public Policy
As contemporary conflicts grow increasingly complex, new approaches to peacemaking are needed. This article outlines how CMI – Martti Ahtisaari Peace Foundation (CMI) incorporates technology-enhanced foresight methodologies into its dialogue and mediation work. Digital tools, such as software dedicated to data analysis and visualization, play a key role in CMI’s foresight approach by facilitating broad-based data collection and participatory analysis. Interactive visual aids foster collective sense-making and help challenge entrenched mindsets of conflict stakeholders. The article illustrates how foresight approaches can be used to develop shared future visions and facilitate collaboration even in the context of stalled peace processes.
Personal Reflections From A Grassroots Peacebuilding Journey, Mark Clark
Personal Reflections From A Grassroots Peacebuilding Journey, Mark Clark
New England Journal of Public Policy
This article presents the author’s personal reflections from experiences over the past thirty years, working at the intersection of leadership development, complexity, and conflict: a journey from corporate law, the British Army, and armed conflict, through the British Foreign & Commonwealth Office and the US-led coalition’s intervention in Iraq, emergency humanitarian response in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and violence reduction and post-conflict reconciliation in Papua New Guinea, to a Jordan-based international peacebuilding organization that supports grassroots peacebuilding efforts in fifty-two countries, and finally a return home to Scotland. It is a journey of naïveté, hubris, curiosity, and an …
The Art And Artifacts Of Solidarity, Yasmin Merali
The Art And Artifacts Of Solidarity, Yasmin Merali
New England Journal of Public Policy
In Complex Adaptive Systems in a Contentious World I showed how viewing social systems as Complex Adaptive Systems exposes the systemic mechanisms that underpin their resilience and sustainability. In this article I show the utility of that approach for elucidating the role of art and artists in the evolution of resilient social movements. I do this by exploring the way in which art and artifacts were implicated in the evolution of the Polish Solidarność movement.
Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley
Editor's Note, Padraig O'Malley
New England Journal of Public Policy
The articles in this issue of the New England Journal of Public Policy primarily interrogate the challenges facing democracy and democratic peacebuilding in divided societies.