Fire Science and Firefighting Commons^™

Assessing Climate Change Impacts On Wildfire Risk In Central Appalachian Forests Of The Eastern United States, Imiya Mudiyanselage Chathuranika, Dalya Ismael

Engineering Technology Faculty Publications

Wildfire risk is increasing in the eastern U.S., yet spatial and climate-driven assessments remain limited. This study evaluates climate change impacts on wildfire risk in the Upper James Watershed (UJW) using baseline (2000–2019), near-future (2021–2040), and far-future (2061–2080) projections from a 12-model CMIP6 global climate model (GCM) ensemble under SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. A wildfire risk model was developed in ArcGIS Pro using nine key factors and validated with MODIS hotspot data, showing good agreement between modeled risk patterns and observed fire occurrences (NOF = 0.21, RMSE = 4.20, MAE = 3.37). Baseline risk was primarily driven by land cover, fire-lookout …

Yearly Population Data At Census Tract Level Revealed That More People Are Now Living In Highly Fire-Prone Zones In California, Usa, Slade Lazeweski, Shenyue Jia, Jessica E. Viner, Wesley Ho, Brian Hoover, Seung Hee Kim, Menas C. Kafatos

Institute for ECHO Articles and Research

In California (CA), the wildland-urban interface (WUI) faces escalating challenges due to surging population and real estate development. This study evaluates communities along CA's WUI that have witnessed substantial population growth from 2010 to 2021, utilizing demographic data and the 2020 WUI boundaries by the University of Wisconsin-Madison SILVIS Lab. Employing the Mann-Kendall test, we analyze yearly population trends for each census tract along the CA WUI and assess their significance. House ownership, affordability, and wildfire risk are examined as potential drivers of this demographic shift. Our findings indicate that 12.7% of CA's total population now resides in census tracts …

Burning Fear, Amy Dorie

Textile Society of America: Symposium Proceedings

Climate change is leading to more intense and devastating wildfires that lead to tragic loss of life and property (Cal Fire, 2018; Sinco et al., 2023) and disturbing environmental impacts (OECD, 2023). The purpose of this textile design was to create an activist design that communicates the fear and anxiety felt by those impacted by wildfires. First-hand accounts of those experiencing wildfires were researched as inspiration for the textile design. Based on the accounts, a selection of wildfire-related images were cropped in irregular shapes, placed around the canvas, and blended evoking a sense of chaos and devastation. An image of …

Intelligence Versus Inferno: How Artificial Intelligence Can Be Used To Monitor And Manage Wildfires In Europe, Maxwell Feldman

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Escalating wildfire occurrences in Europe, particularly in the southern Mediterranean region, are presenting significant challenges to socioeconomic, environmental, and ecosystem services. The increasing frequency and severity of these wildfires are straining resources and emphasizing the need for a better understanding of the relationship between suppression capacity and fire behavior in wildfire management. The following research addresses the urgent need for more proactive, knowledge-based, and technologically driven fire management strategies, throughout all four stages of wildfire response – fuel and land management, fire preparedness, fire suppression, and post-fire management. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming increasingly significant in climate change adaptation, especially …

On The Stratospheric Chemistry Of Midlatitude Wildfire Smoke, Susan Soloman, Kimberlee Dube, Kane Stone, Pengfei Yu, Doug Kinnison, Owen B. Toon, Susan E. Strahan, Karen H. Rosenlof, Robert Portmann, Sean Davis, William Randel, Peter Bernath, Chris Boone, Charles G. Bardeen, Adam Bourassa, Daniel Zawada, Doug Degenstein

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

Massive Australian wildfires lofted smoke directly into the stratosphere in the austral summer of 2019/20. The smoke led to increases in optical extinction throughout the midlatitudes of the southern hemisphere that rivalled substantial volcanic perturbations. Previous studies have assumed that the smoke became coated with sulfuric acid and water and would deplete the ozone layer through heterogeneous chemistry on those surfaces, as is routinely observed following volcanic enhancements of the stratospheric sulfate layer. Here, observations of extinction and reactive nitrogen species from multiple independent satellites that sampled the smoke region are compared to one another and to model calculations. The …

Public Perception Of Forest And Fire Management Policy In Portugal, Jensen Rocha

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The impacts of forest fires are growing as climate change creates more frequent ideal temperature conditions for extreme wildfires. With the devastating fires it experienced in 2017, Portugal stands as an example of the impacts of dangerous wildfires and is working on developing a plan to protect its country from this rising threat. Important in the plan development is the opinion of the many stakeholders involved and the public whom the fires impact. Using an interview and survey approach, this study gathers public and stakeholder opinion on the forest and fire management policy in Portugal to understand what issues in …

Multifidelity Prediction In Wildfire Spread Simulation: Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification And Sensitivity Analysis, Mario Miguel Valero, Lluís Jofre, Ricardo Torres

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

Wildfire behavior predictions typically suffer from significant uncertainty. However, wildfire modeling uncertainties remain largely unquantified in the literature, mainly due to computing constraints. New multifidelity techniques provide a promising opportunity to overcome these limitations. Therefore, this paper explores the applicability of multifidelity approaches to wildland fire spread prediction problems. Using a canonical simulation scenario, we assessed the performance of control variates Monte-Carlo (MC) and multilevel MC strategies, achieving speedups of up to 100x in comparison to a standard MC method. This improvement was leveraged to quantify aleatoric uncertainties and analyze the sensitivity of the fire rate of spread (RoS) to …

Ecological Risk Assessment Of Managed Relocation As A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, Aviv Karasov-Olson, Mark W. Schwartz, Julian D. Olden, Sarah Skikne, Jessica J. Hellmann, Sarah Allen, Christy Brigham, Danielle Buttke, David J. Lawrence, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing, Jeffrey T. Morisette, Gregor W. Schuurman, Melissa Trammell, Cat Hawkins Hoffman

United States National Park Service: Publications

Executive Summary

Changing climate and introduced species are placing an increasing number of species at risk of extinction. Increasing extinction risk is increasing calls to protect species by relocating, or translocating, them to locations with more favorable biotic or climatic conditions. Managed relocation, or assisted migration, of species entails risks to both the conservation target organisms being moved as well as the recipient ecosystems into which they are moved.

Recognizing this risk, calls have been made for practitioners interested in considering a managed relocation project to engage in a serious risk assessment prior to advancing a project. We engaged a …

Homestead National Monument Of America, Acoustic Monitoring, 2011-2012

United States National Park Service: Publications

Executive Summary

This report presents acoustical data gathered by Student Conservation Association interns and the Natural Resource Specialist at Homestead National Monument of America in 2011 and 2012. Data were collected at four sites to provide park managers with information on the acoustical environment, sources of noise, and the existing ambient sound levels within the monument. The data will also inform the park managers with information regarding the potential impact of traffic on Highway 4.

Monitoring occurred at each site during two different seasons (except HOME002) in order to document seasonal variations. In each deployment, sound pressure level (SPL) was …

Vegetation Classification And Mapping, Missouri National Recreational River, Tom Baldvins, Matt Ley, David Jones, Joe Stevens, Hannah Pilkington

United States National Park Service: Publications

Executive Summary

The vegetation inventory project at Missouri National Recreational River (MNRR) classified and mapped vegetation within the park administrative boundary and estimated thematic map accuracy quantitatively. The project was conducted over a four year period from the summer of 2015 to the winter of 2019.

The project follows guidance provided by the National Park Service (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory (VMI) Program. The overall process includes initial planning and scoping, imagery procurement, field data collection, data analysis, imagery interpretation and classification, and accuracy assessment. The initial planning and scoping meetings to support study plan development took place in December, 2009, …

Homestead National Monument Of America, Bat Acoustic Monitoring, September 2016, Daniel S. Licht

United States National Park Service: Publications

Abstract

Homestead National Monument of America is a 211-acre park located in an agrarian landscape in southeastern Nebraska. From September 16 to October 1, 2016, park staff deployed acoustic monitors at three sites in the park for purposes of monitoring night-time bat activity. The three sites averaged 179, 48, and 33 bat detections per night. Night-time bat activity was generally highest in the 1-2 hours following sunset.

Based on the acoustic surveys the big brown (Eptesicus fuscus), eastern red (Lasiurus borealis), northern long-eared (Myotis septentrionalis) and evening bats (Nycticeius humeralis) were present at the …

Air Quality Related Values (Aqrvs) For Northern Great Plains Network (Ngpn) Parks, Effects From Ozone; Visibility Reducing Particles; And Atmospheric Deposition Of Acids, Nutrients And Toxics, Timothy J. Sullivan

United States National Park Service: Publications

Summary

This report describes the Air Quality Related Values (AQRVs) of the Northern Great Plains Network (NGPN). AQRVs are those resources sensitive to air quality and include streams, lakes, soils, vegetation, fish and wildlife, and visibility. This report also describes air pollutant emissions and air quality in NGPN, and their effects on AQRVs. The primary pollutants likely to affect AQRVs include nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds (nitrate [NO₃^-], ammonium [NH₄⁺], and sulfate [SO₄^2-]); ground-level ozone (O₃); haze-causing particles; and airborne toxics.

The 13 parks that are included in …

Climate Change Tipping Points: A Point Of No Return?, Elise Lequire

Joint Fire Science Program Digests

Summer 2012 saw records fall for intensity of drought and number, size, and cost of wildfires in the Central and Western United States, and the climate forecast calls for more of the same in the near and distant future. When wildfire breaks out, emergency responders decide their immediate strategy based on past experience and quick judgment calls. But in the long term, land managers need to plan for a warmer climate on a time scale of decades, or even a century or more, to better reflect the life span of trees and forests. Studies supported by the Joint Fire Science …

Evaluation Of The Sensitivity Of Inventory And Monitoring National Parks To Acidification Effects From Atmospheric Sulfur And Nitrogen Deposition, Northern Great Plains Network (Ngpn), T. J. Sullivan, T. C. Mcdonnell, G. T. Mcpherson, S. D. Mackey, D. Moore

United States National Park Service: Publications

Northern Great Plains Network (NGPN)

National maps of atmospheric sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions and deposition are provided in Maps A through D as context for subsequent network data presentations. Maps A and B show county level emissions of total S and total N for the year 2002. Maps C and D show total S and total N deposition, again for the year 2002.

There are three parks in the Northern Great Plains Network that are larger than 100 square miles: Badlands (BADL), Missouri (MNRR), and Theodore Roosevelt (THRO). In addition, there are 10 smaller parks.

Total annual S …

Evaluation Of The Sensitivity Of Inventory And Monitoring National Parks To Nutrient Enrichment Effects From Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition Northern Great Plains Network (Ngpn), T. J. Sullivan, T. C. Mcdonnell, G. T. Mcpherson, S. D. Mackey, D. Moore

United States National Park Service: Publications

Northern Great Plains Network (NGPN)

National maps of atmospheric N emissions and deposition are provided in Maps A and B as context for subsequent network data presentations. Map A shows county level emissions of total N for the year 2002. Map B shows total N deposition, again for the year 2002.

There are three parks in the Northern Great Plains Network that are larger than 100 square miles: Badlands (BADL), Missouri (MNRR), and Theodore Roosevelt (THRO). In addition, there are 10 other smaller parks.

Total annual N emissions, by county, are shown in Map C for lands in and surrounding …