Personality and Social Contexts Commons^™

The Political Personality Of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin, Aubrey Immelman, Joseph V. Trenzeluk

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality of Vladimir Putin, president of the Russian Federation, from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data regarding President Putin were extracted from open-source intelligence and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with Axis II of DSM-IV.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed on the basis of interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of Personality Styles manuals. Putin’s primary personality patterns were found …

Personality And Leadership Profiles Of 2016 Presidential Candidates Hillary Clinton And Donald Trump, Aubrey Immelman

Forum Lectures

Aubrey Immelman presents the psychological profiles of the Democratic and Republican nominees in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. The presentation outlines the leadership implications of the profiles and compares the nominees’ scores on the locally developed Presidential Electability Index (PEI). The PEI, which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996, projects that Trump will win the election.

The Political Personality Of 2016 Democratic Presidential Nominee Hillary Clinton, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democratic nominee in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. The present report combines data from five studies conducted between 1998 and 2016 from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data about Clinton was collected from biographical sources and media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with Axis II of DSM–IV.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed in accordance with interpretive …

The Political Personality Of 2016 Republican Presidential Nominee Donald J. Trump, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality of Donald J. Trump, Republican nominee in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, conducted 2015–2016 from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon.

Psychodiagnostically relevant data about Trump were collected from biographical sources and media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with DSM-III-R, DSM-IV, and DSM-5.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed in accordance with interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC and Millon Index of …

The Role Of Social Dominance Orientation And Patriotism In The Evaluation Of Minority And Female Leaders, Crystal L. Hoyt, Stefanie Simon

Jepson School of Leadership Studies articles, book chapters and other publications

This research broadens our understanding of racial and gender bias in leader evaluations by merging implicit leadership theory and social dominance perspectives. Across two experimental studies (291 participants), we tested the prediction that bias in leader evaluations stemming from White and masculine leader standards depends on the extent to which people favor hierarchical group relationships (social dominance orientation) and their level of patriotism. Employing the Goldberg paradigm, participants read identical leadership speeches attributed to either a woman or a man described as either a minority (Black or Latino/a) or a majority (White) group member. Results show social dominance orientation negatively …

Personality Profiles Of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidates, Aubrey Immelman

Forum Lectures

Aubrey Immelman and his summer research assistant Joe Trenzeluk present summaries of the psychological profiles of Republican contenders in the 2016 U.S. presidential election (including Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker) and outline the leadership implications of those profiles. In addition, the presenters discuss the personality profile of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and compare the candidates’ scores on the locally developed Personal [Presidential] Electability Index (PEI). The PEI, which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996, projects that Trump will win the election.

The Political Personality Of 2016 Presidential Candidate Rand Paul, Katherine A. (Katie) Stelzner, Anh Doan, Natalie J. Gannon, Katie Miller

Celebrating Scholarship & Creativity Day (2011-2017)

We conducted a psychodiagnostic case study of Kentucky senator and declared 2016 Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul. The purpose of the study was to construct a Millon-based personality profile of Dr. Paul.

Excusing Murder? Conservative Jurors’ Acceptance Of The Gay Panic Defense, Cynthia J. Najdowski, Jessica Salerno, Bette L. Bottoms, B. L. Harrington, Dave Kemner

Psychology Faculty Scholarship

We conducted a simulated trial study to investigate the effectiveness of a “gay-panic” provocation defense as a function of jurors’ political orientation. Mock jurors read about a murder case in which a male defendant claimed a victim provoked the killing by starting a fight, which either included or did not include the male victim making an unwanted sexual advance that triggered a state of panic in the defendant. Conservative jurors were significantly less punitive when the defendant claimed to have acted out of gay panic as compared to when this element was not part of the defense. In contrast, liberal …

Examining The Distinct Effects Of Emotive Triggers On Public Reactions To International Terrorism, Cigdem Sirin, Nehemia Geva

Selected Works Temporary Series

In recent years, a growing body of research has set out to examine the role that emotions play in shaping political attitudes and behaviors regarding terrorism. However, one major issue that is generally overlooked is whether the thematic relevance of emotive triggers leads to differential effects on people's reactions to international terrorism. Specifically, does anger—regardless of its source—tend to drive people towards supporting an aggressive foreign policy option to counter terrorism, or do the thematic underpinnings of anger (i.e., the specific contents that trigger this particular emotion, such as watching a news story about a recent terrorist attack) matter vis-à-vis …

Fourth Time's The Charm?: Modeling A Psychologically-Based Peace Iv Program In Northern Ireland, Cailin A. Rogers

The Macalester Review

Abstract: Social conflict has consumed Northern Ireland for centuries. The relationship between Catholic Nationalists and Protestant Loyalists has proved difficult to reconcile–current policy approaches have been unable to attain peace. This paper seeks to explore the gaps in policy created by ignoring the important distinction between the social identities Nationalists and Loyalists have created and which they continue to perpetuate. This paper examines Social identity theory in context of Northern Ireland and applies the psychology of disparate community identities to current policies and trends in Northern Ireland to suggest reasons for a lack of progress towards peace. Unfortunately, contemporary Northern …

Analyzing The Determinants Of Group Identity Among Alevis In Turkey: A National Survey Study, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study systematically explores the factors that affect collective identity associations within the Alevi community in Turkey by employing the social identity approach and examining survey data collected through fieldwork. The results show that Kurdish Alevis express lower levels of attachment to their religious identity as compared to Turkish Alevis. The results also indicate that personal experiences of discrimination tend to increase one's prioritization of Alevi identity. Last, no significant differences are observed regarding group identity between Alevis who reside in urban areas and those who live in rural areas.

Do "Suicide Bombers" Really Commit Suicide?, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

By Israel Oron (Ostre), Ph.D., Psychologist, National Program for Suicide Prevention, Ministry of Health, Israel, and The Department for Psychology, Health and Ethics/ University of Haifa, Israel.

[Dr. Oron (Ostre) was formerly Psychologist, Behavior Section/The Department of Criminal Investigations & Intelligence, Israel Police HQ].

This article applies a psychological approach to explore and to explain the behavior of Palestinian terrorists who blow themselves up in the light of their own words. It is shown that terrorists have no suicidal intent; hence, their behavior is not an act of suicide. Psychological analysis point to a behavioral reaction to stress situations that …

The Political Personality Of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of an indirect assessment of the personality of Willard Mitt Romney, Republican presidential candidate in the 2008 U.S. presidential election and Republican presidential nominee in 2012.

The study was conducted in 2007–2008 and 2012, from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon. Information concerning Romney was collected from biographical sources and media reports and synthesized into a personality profile using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with Axis II of DSM-IV.

The personality profile yielded by the MIDC was analyzed on the basis of …

Presidential Decision Making: Comparing The Personality Profiles Of Barack Obama And Franklin D. Roosevelt, Andrew Obritsch, Aubrey Immelman

Psychology Faculty Publications

This paper presents the results of indirect assessments of the personalities of U.S. presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Barack H. Obama, from the conceptual perspective of personologist Theodore Millon. Information concerning Roosevelt and Obama was collected from biographical sources and published reports and synthesized into personality profiles using the second edition of the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria (MIDC), which yields 34 normal and maladaptive personality classifications congruent with Axis II of DSM-IV.

The personality profiles yielded by the MIDC were analyzed on the basis of interpretive guidelines provided in the MIDC manual. Roosevelt’s primary personality pattern was found …

Public Support For Military Interventions Across Levels Of Political Information And Stages Of Intervention: The Case Of The Iraq War, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the effect of political information levels and intervention stages on the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions by analyzing survey data pertaining to the 2003 military intervention in Iraq. The results show that before and immediately after the launch of the intervention, politically uninformed individuals expressed higher support for the war compared to politically informed ones. However, as the intervention proceeded and casualties were incurred, higher rates of decrease in support were observed among the politically uninformed. Politically informed individuals, on the other hand, demonstrated more stable levels of support throughout the course of …

Public Support For Military Interventions Across Levels Of Political Information And Stages Of Intervention: The Case Of The Iraq War, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the effect of political information levels and intervention stages on the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions by analyzing survey data pertaining to the 2003 military intervention in Iraq. The results show that before and immediately after the launch of the intervention, politically uninformed individuals expressed higher support for the war compared to politically informed ones. However, as the intervention proceeded and casualties were incurred, higher rates of decrease in support were observed among the politically uninformed. Politically informed individuals, on the other hand, demonstrated more stable levels of support throughout the course of …

Agenda Setting From The Oval Office: An Experimental Examination Of Presidential Influence Over The Public Agenda, José Villalobos, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study employs an experimental approach to isolate and directly test the extent to which presidents can affect public perceptions of issue importance and support for policy action, taking into consideration key factors that condition such effects. Our findings provide new empirical evidence that presidents can, in fact, positively influence public opinion through agenda setting, particularly by increasing the perceptual importance of low salience foreign policy issues. However, the results also indicate that such positive effects do not translate into public support for policy action; instead, presidential appeals actually decrease support. Last, our study offers new evidence that employing bipartisan …

Agenda Setting From The Oval Office: An Experimental Examination Of Presidential Influence Over The Public Agenda, José Villalobos, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study employs an experimental approach to isolate and directly test the extent to which presidents can affect public perceptions of issue importance and support for policy action, taking into consideration key factors that condition such effects. Our findings provide new empirical evidence that presidents can, in fact, positively influence public opinion through agenda setting, particularly by increasing the perceptual importance of low salience foreign policy issues. However, the results also indicate that such positive effects do not translate into public support for policy action; instead, presidential appeals actually decrease support. Last, our study offers new evidence that employing bipartisan …

Examining The Role Of Identity In Negotiation Decision Making: The Case Of Cyprus, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the effects of ethnic and social identities on negotiation decision making in the context of the Cyprus conflict. I conduct a theory-driven case study of the 1959 Zurich-London agreements on Cyprus, analyzing the positions of Turkey, Greece, Britain, and the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities during the negotiation process. I find that even in the presence of adversarial ethnic ties, decision makers who have a shared (and salient) social identity are more likely to employ collective-serving decision strategies and seek evenhanded solutions that will not jeopardize their mutual interests. In contrast, decision makers with severe ethnic fragmentation …

Examining The Role Of Identity In Negotiation Decision Making: The Case Of Cyprus, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the effects of ethnic and social identities on negotiation decision making in the context of the Cyprus conflict. I conduct a theory-driven case study of the 1959 Zurich-London agreements on Cyprus, analyzing the positions of Turkey, Greece, Britain, and the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities during the negotiation process. I find that even in the presence of adversarial ethnic ties, decision makers who have a shared (and salient) social identity are more likely to employ collective-serving decision strategies and seek evenhanded solutions that will not jeopardize their mutual interests. In contrast, decision makers with severe ethnic fragmentation …

From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study investigates presidential progress in addressing racial injustices and disparities within the context of the war on drugs. I argue that racial inequalities emanating from the war on drugs have been largely overlooked and at times aggravated by previous administrations. Although there have been some improvements in this regard since President Obama took office, more extensive policy reforms are needed to better remedy such inequalities. I also argue that the viability of a progressive presidency for racial justice vis-à-vis U.S. drug policies depends not only on the personal agenda of the president but also on a supportive public as …

From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study investigates presidential progress in addressing racial injustices and disparities within the context of the war on drugs. I argue that racial inequalities emanating from the war on drugs have been largely overlooked and at times aggravated by previous administrations. Although there have been some improvements in this regard since President Obama took office, more extensive policy reforms are needed to better remedy such inequalities. I also argue that the viability of a progressive presidency for racial justice vis-à-vis U.S. drug policies depends not only on the personal agenda of the president but also on a supportive public as …

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

Psychological Assessment: What Will The Future Bring?, Ibpp Editor

International Bulletin of Political Psychology

The author discusses the (de)valuation of psychological assessment from various perspectives.

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

Decision-Making Techniques Used By Elected Officials, Michael Gordon

Graduate Research Symposium (2010 - 2017)

Politicians often make decisions that lead to contradictory outcomes from situations with seemingly similar circumstances and related factors. Recent examples include the U.S. reaction to the uprising in Iran contrasted with the call for the ousting of president Hosni Mubarak after the 18 Day Revolution in Egypt.

This frustrating reality, frequently based on perceived risks of publication of state secrets, has various far-reaching effects. Two effects of this reality include the loss of trust in government and government officials to do the right thing as well as the frequency of market fluctuations.