Models and Methods Commons^™

Dead Money: Measuring The Influence Of Representatives On Government Spending, Adhitya Venkatraman

CMC Senior Theses

In line with popular criticisms of Congressional pork barrel spending, I find that that individual representatives do wield significant influence in securing government contracts for their districts. Using federal contract data organized at the congressional district level from FY 2001 – FY 2021, I estimate how individual members of the House of Representatives affect funding outcomes. My identification strategy leverages changes in contract funding that occur during exogenous vacancies occurring in the middle of a term. By comparing contract funding outcomes during vacant quarters to non-vacant quarters, I estimate the amount of individual influence exercised by representatives.

During vacant quarters, …

Promoting Regulatory Prediction, Jonathan S. Masur, Jonathan R. Nash

Faculty Articles

It is essential for environmental protection that private actors be able to anticipate government regulation. If, for instance, the Biden Administration is planning to tighten regulations of greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative that private companies anticipate this regulatory change now, not a few years from now after they have constructed even more coal- and gas-fired power plants. Those additional power plants will mean more irreversible greenhouse gases, and these plants can be politically challenging to shutter once built. The point is general to private actors making decisions in the shadow of potential government regulation. Better information about future government …

Gift Baskets For South Asia: Nuclear Risk Reduction And Crisis Management, Amber Jamil, Megan Goyette

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Gift Basket diplomacy is an interest-based approach to negotiation that encourages voluntary commitments as incentives for cooperation. International diplomats used this approach during the Nuclear Security Summits (NSS), and it is the new standard for international cooperation. This model was successfully replicated in climate talks and led to a global effort to combat climate change. The use of house presents, and gift baskets encourages leadership and team building, to excel beyond intractable consensus-based stalemates. The Gift Basket Diplomacy model may reduce South Asia’s nuclear risk and enhance crisis management by increasing diplomatic efforts during regional party talks and cooperative engagements, …

Smoke Filled Back Hollars: The Impact Of Traditional Barbecue On Modern Political Campaigns Within Western Virginia, Monica Thomas Fury

Undergraduate Honors Theses

The first political barbecue took place in Virginia during the Colonial period. Since then, barbecue has remained an essential part of American civic life. Western Virginia, defined for the purposes of this thesis as the political borders of the sixth and ninth Congressional Districts in Virginia as drawn in 2021, is largely a rural area, considered by most political consultants to be heavily Republican and not winnable seats for Democratic candidates. The state Democratic Party of Virginia has rarely earmarked funds or support for candidates within those districts for the past two decades. Ironically, the Democratic party controlled this same …

A Proportionality-Based Framework For Government Regulation Of Digital Tracing Apps In Times Of Emergency, Sharon Bassan

Dickinson Law Review (2017-Present)

Times of emergency present an inherent conflict between the public interest and the preservation of individual rights. Such times require granting emergency powers to the government on behalf of the public interest and relaxing safeguards against government actions that infringe rights. The lack of theoretical framework to assess governmental decisions in times of emergency leads to a polarized and politicized discourse about potential policies, and often, to public distrust and lack of compliance.

Such a discourse was evident regarding Digital Tracing Apps (“DTAs”), which are apps installed on cellular phones to alert users that they were exposed to people who …

The Politics Of Belonging: How Migration Affects Social Democratic Welfare States, Katherine Grace Siegenthaler

Pomona Senior Theses

The refugee crisis of 2015 sparked a new era of migration politics in Europe, with waves of immigrants altering the expectations for integration and assimilation policies in many states. Social democratic welfare states, that is, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, while far north of many of the arrival destinations of these migrants, were not immune to these changes. However, as social-democratic welfare states, much of their legitimacy rests on their ability to provide for their citizens, which is in turn supported by a pervasive sense of solidarity amongst their communities, so that extensive tax systems can continue to …

An Analysis Of Cyber Wargaming: Current Games, Limitations, And Recommendations, Sarah Chen

CMC Senior Theses

Cyberspace operations and conflict pose a unique challenge to decision-makers due to the uncertainty and unpredictability of cyber capabilities. Relying on wargaming literature, public cyber wargame reports, and expert interviews, this thesis analyzes the utility of cyber wargaming for education and analysis. Cyber wargames offer a method of testing, exploring, and understanding cyberspace through the abstraction and representation of cyber tools and attack cycles.

The thesis begins by examining cyber conflict and theorizes hypothetical wargame use cases. It then creates a framework for cyber wargaming elements and examines the design of eleven analytical wargames, eight educational wargames, and three commercial …

A Gamefied Synthetic Environment For Evaluation Of Counter-Disinformation Solutions, Jesse Richman, Lora Pitman, Girish S. Nandakumar

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

This paper presents a simulation-based approach to countering online dis/misinformation. This disruptive technology experiment incorporated a synthetic environment component, based on adapted SIR epidemiological model to evaluate and visualize the effectiveness of suggested solutions to the issue. The participants in the simulation were given a realistic scenario depicting a dis/misinformation threat and were asked to select a number of solutions, described in IoS (Ideas-of-Systems) cards. During the event, the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the IoS cards, were tested in a synthetic environment (SEN), built after a Susceptible-Infected-Resistant (SIR) model. The participants, divided into teams, presented and justified their dis/misinformation …

Dynamic Modeling Of Inland Flooding And Storm Surge On Coastal Cities Under Climate Change Scenarios: Transportation Infrastructure Impacts In Norfolk, Virginia Usa As A Case Study, Yawen Shen, Navid Tahvildari, Mohamed M. Morsy, Chris Huxley, T. Donna Chen, Jonathan Lee Goodall

Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications

Low-lying coastal cities across the world are vulnerable to the combined impact of rainfall and storm tide. However, existing approaches lack the ability to model the combined effect of these flood mechanisms, especially under climate change and sea level rise (SLR). Thus, to increase flood resilience of coastal cities, modeling techniques to improve the understanding and prediction of the combined effect of these flood hazards are critical. To address this need, this study presents a modeling system for assessing the combined flood impact on coastal cities under selected future climate scenarios that leverages ocean modeling with land surface modeling capable …