Models and Methods Commons^™

Examining The Distinct Effects Of Emotive Triggers On Public Reactions To International Terrorism, Cigdem Sirin, Nehemia Geva

Selected Works Temporary Series

In recent years, a growing body of research has set out to examine the role that emotions play in shaping political attitudes and behaviors regarding terrorism. However, one major issue that is generally overlooked is whether the thematic relevance of emotive triggers leads to differential effects on people's reactions to international terrorism. Specifically, does anger—regardless of its source—tend to drive people towards supporting an aggressive foreign policy option to counter terrorism, or do the thematic underpinnings of anger (i.e., the specific contents that trigger this particular emotion, such as watching a news story about a recent terrorist attack) matter vis-à-vis …

Data Analysis Using Regression Modeling: Visual Display And Setup Of Simple And Complex Statistical Models, Emil N. Coman, Maria A. Coman, Eugen Iordache, Russell Barbour, Lisa Dierker

Yale Day of Data

We present visual modeling solutions for testing simple and more advanced statistical hypotheses in any research field. All models can be directly specified in analytical software like Mplus or R.

Data analysis in any substantive field can be easily accomplished by translating statistical tests in the intuitive language of regression-based path diagrams with observed and unobserved variables. All models we presented can be directly specified and estimated in analytical software.

Students can particularly benefit from being taught the simple regression modeling setup of the path analytical method, as it empowers them to apply the techniques to any data to test …

Fourth Time's The Charm?: Modeling A Psychologically-Based Peace Iv Program In Northern Ireland, Cailin A. Rogers

The Macalester Review

Abstract: Social conflict has consumed Northern Ireland for centuries. The relationship between Catholic Nationalists and Protestant Loyalists has proved difficult to reconcile–current policy approaches have been unable to attain peace. This paper seeks to explore the gaps in policy created by ignoring the important distinction between the social identities Nationalists and Loyalists have created and which they continue to perpetuate. This paper examines Social identity theory in context of Northern Ireland and applies the psychology of disparate community identities to current policies and trends in Northern Ireland to suggest reasons for a lack of progress towards peace. Unfortunately, contemporary Northern …

Analyzing The Determinants Of Group Identity Among Alevis In Turkey: A National Survey Study, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study systematically explores the factors that affect collective identity associations within the Alevi community in Turkey by employing the social identity approach and examining survey data collected through fieldwork. The results show that Kurdish Alevis express lower levels of attachment to their religious identity as compared to Turkish Alevis. The results also indicate that personal experiences of discrimination tend to increase one's prioritization of Alevi identity. Last, no significant differences are observed regarding group identity between Alevis who reside in urban areas and those who live in rural areas.

Cheap, Easy, Or Connected: The Conditions For Creating Group Coordination, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Daniel Rodriguez, Nicholas Weller

Faculty Scholarship

In both legal and political settings there has been a push toward adopting institutions that encourage consensus. The key feature of these institutions is that they bring interested parties together to communicate with each other. Existing research about the success or failure of particular institutions is ambiguous. Therefore, we turn our attention to understanding the general conditions when consensus is achievable, and we test experimentally three crucial factors that affect a group's ability to achieve consensus: (1) the difficulty of the problem, (2) the costs of communication, and (3) the structure of communication. Using multiple experimental approaches, we find that …

Public Support For Military Interventions Across Levels Of Political Information And Stages Of Intervention: The Case Of The Iraq War, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the effect of political information levels and intervention stages on the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions by analyzing survey data pertaining to the 2003 military intervention in Iraq. The results show that before and immediately after the launch of the intervention, politically uninformed individuals expressed higher support for the war compared to politically informed ones. However, as the intervention proceeded and casualties were incurred, higher rates of decrease in support were observed among the politically uninformed. Politically informed individuals, on the other hand, demonstrated more stable levels of support throughout the course of …

Public Support For Military Interventions Across Levels Of Political Information And Stages Of Intervention: The Case Of The Iraq War, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the effect of political information levels and intervention stages on the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions by analyzing survey data pertaining to the 2003 military intervention in Iraq. The results show that before and immediately after the launch of the intervention, politically uninformed individuals expressed higher support for the war compared to politically informed ones. However, as the intervention proceeded and casualties were incurred, higher rates of decrease in support were observed among the politically uninformed. Politically informed individuals, on the other hand, demonstrated more stable levels of support throughout the course of …

Examining The Role Of Identity In Negotiation Decision Making: The Case Of Cyprus, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the effects of ethnic and social identities on negotiation decision making in the context of the Cyprus conflict. I conduct a theory-driven case study of the 1959 Zurich-London agreements on Cyprus, analyzing the positions of Turkey, Greece, Britain, and the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities during the negotiation process. I find that even in the presence of adversarial ethnic ties, decision makers who have a shared (and salient) social identity are more likely to employ collective-serving decision strategies and seek evenhanded solutions that will not jeopardize their mutual interests. In contrast, decision makers with severe ethnic fragmentation …

Examining The Role Of Identity In Negotiation Decision Making: The Case Of Cyprus, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the effects of ethnic and social identities on negotiation decision making in the context of the Cyprus conflict. I conduct a theory-driven case study of the 1959 Zurich-London agreements on Cyprus, analyzing the positions of Turkey, Greece, Britain, and the Turkish and Greek Cypriot communities during the negotiation process. I find that even in the presence of adversarial ethnic ties, decision makers who have a shared (and salient) social identity are more likely to employ collective-serving decision strategies and seek evenhanded solutions that will not jeopardize their mutual interests. In contrast, decision makers with severe ethnic fragmentation …

The Theory Of Minds Within The Theory Of Games, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Mark Turner, Nicholas Weller

Faculty Scholarship

Classical rationality as accepted by game theory assumes that a human chooser in a given moment has consistent preferences and beliefs and that actions result consistently from those preferences and beliefs, and moreover that these preferences, beliefs, and actions remain the same across equal choice moments. Since, as is widely found in prior experiments, subjects do not follow the predictions of classical rationality, behavioral game theorists have assumed consistent deviations from classical rationality by assigning to subjects certain dispositions— risk preference, cognitive abilities, social norms, etc. All of these theories are fundamentally cognitive theories, making claims about how individual human …

From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study investigates presidential progress in addressing racial injustices and disparities within the context of the war on drugs. I argue that racial inequalities emanating from the war on drugs have been largely overlooked and at times aggravated by previous administrations. Although there have been some improvements in this regard since President Obama took office, more extensive policy reforms are needed to better remedy such inequalities. I also argue that the viability of a progressive presidency for racial justice vis-à-vis U.S. drug policies depends not only on the personal agenda of the president but also on a supportive public as …

From Nixon’S War On Drugs To Obama’S Drug Policies Today: Presidential Progress In Addressing Racial Injustices And Disparities, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study investigates presidential progress in addressing racial injustices and disparities within the context of the war on drugs. I argue that racial inequalities emanating from the war on drugs have been largely overlooked and at times aggravated by previous administrations. Although there have been some improvements in this regard since President Obama took office, more extensive policy reforms are needed to better remedy such inequalities. I also argue that the viability of a progressive presidency for racial justice vis-à-vis U.S. drug policies depends not only on the personal agenda of the president but also on a supportive public as …

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

Examining The Effects Of Political Information And Intervention Stages On Public Support For Military Interventions: A Panel Experiment, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study examines the formation and continuity of public support for military interventions as a function of political information levels and intervention stages using a panel experiment. The results demonstrate that politically informed individuals express less support for a military intervention at the beginning of that intervention compared to uninformed ones. However, as the intervention proceeds and casualties are incurred, the support of politically uninformed people decreases at a higher rate than does the support of the politically informed. As such, politically informed individuals demonstrate more stable levels of support across intervention stages. In addition, success or failure of an …

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem Sirin

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

Is It Cohesion Or Diversion? Domestic Instability And The Use Of Force In International Crises, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study asserts that cohesionary—rather than diversionary—motives primarily influence the propensity of political leaders to use external force in international crises in times of domestic turmoil. Specifically, I contend that mass violence leads political leaders to engage in cohesionary tactics to achieve and maintain social order in their country for political survival. Employing random effects probit analyses with International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data for one-hundred and thirty-nine countries from 1918 to 2005, I find that increased mass violence is more likely than other forms of domestic problems (be it an economic downturn or government instability) to instigate the external use …

Scarcity-Induced Domestic Conflict: Examining The Interactive Effects Of Environmental Scarcity And ‘Ethnic’ Population Pressures, Cigdem Sirin

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study argues that environmental scarcity is more likely to result in civil conflict in countries that experience ‘ethnic’ population pressures (i.e. where the size of the largest minority group is close to parity with the majority group). I refer to this argument as the ‘parity-threat’ approach to the study of scarcity-induced domestic conflict. I empirically test my argument by analysing time-series cross-section data for the period 1979–2000 using four alternative environmental indicators: (1) ecological footprint, (2) biocapacity, (3) scarcity of ecological reserves and (4) water scarcity. The results demonstrate that environmental scarcity increases the probability of civil conflict when …

Decision-Making Techniques Used By Elected Officials, Michael Gordon

Graduate Research Symposium (2010 - 2017)

Politicians often make decisions that lead to contradictory outcomes from situations with seemingly similar circumstances and related factors. Recent examples include the U.S. reaction to the uprising in Iran contrasted with the call for the ousting of president Hosni Mubarak after the 18 Day Revolution in Egypt.

This frustrating reality, frequently based on perceived risks of publication of state secrets, has various far-reaching effects. Two effects of this reality include the loss of trust in government and government officials to do the right thing as well as the frequency of market fluctuations.

Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos, Nehemia Geva

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study explores the effects of political information and anger on the public’s cognitive processing and foreign policy preferences concerning third-party interventions in ethnic conflict. Our study employs an experimental design wherein we manipulate policy-specific information by generating ad hoc political information related to ethnic conflict. The statistical methods of analysis are logistic regression and analysis of covariance. The results demonstrate that both political information and anger have a significant impact on an individual’s cognitive processing and policy preferences regarding ethnic conflict interventions. Specifically, political information increases one’s proclivity to choose non-military policy options, whereas anger instigates support for aggressive …

Political Information And Emotions In Ethnic Conflict Interventions, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos, Nehemia Geva

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study explores the effects of political information and anger on the public’s cognitive processing and foreign policy preferences concerning third-party interventions in ethnic conflict. Our study employs an experimental design wherein we manipulate policy-specific information by generating ad hoc political information related to ethnic conflict. The statistical methods of analysis are logistic regression and analysis of covariance. The results demonstrate that both political information and anger have a significant impact on an individual’s cognitive processing and policy preferences regarding ethnic conflict interventions. Specifically, political information increases one’s proclivity to choose non-military policy options, whereas anger instigates support for aggressive …

Attitudes, William A. Cunningham, Ingrid J. Haas, Andrew Jahn

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

This chapter reviews social neuroscience research that links social psychological attitudes and evaluative processes to their presumed neural bases. The chapter is organized into four parts. The first section discusses how attitude representations are transformed into evaluative states that can be used to guide thought and action. The next two sections address the related processes of attitude learning and change. The final section discusses applications of these concepts for the study of prejudice and political behavior.

We Call Ourselves By Many Names: Storytelling And Inter-Minority Coalition-Building, Celina Su

Publications and Research

Scholars debate whether new immigrants will join minority native-born groups, especially African-Americans, in battling racial disparities, income inequalities, and discrimination in the United States. Although scholars have investigated inter-minority coalition-building in the context of electoral politics, a substantial share of newer immigrant social and political action has not been formalized. Social change organizations play an integral role in less formalized politics. The article draws upon ethnographic data on two case study organizations to investigate how they built coalitions between immigrants and non-immigrants. It pinpoints the ways in which they engaged in storytelling to emphasize multiple identity – namely, how any …

Connected Coordination: Network Structure And Group Coordination, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Ramamohan Paturi, Nicholas Weller

Faculty Scholarship

Networks can affect a group’s ability to solve a coordination problem. We utilize laboratory experiments to study the conditions under which groups of subjects can solve coordination games. We investigate a variety of different network structures, and we also investigate coordination games with symmetric and asymmetric payoffs. Our results show that network connections facilitate coordination in both symmetric and asymmetric games. Most significantly, we find that increases in the number of network connections encourage coordination even when payoffs are highly asymmetric. These results shed light on the conditions that may facilitate coordination in real-world networks.

The Coevolution Of Networks And Political Attitudes, David Lazer, Brian Rubineau, Carol Chetkovich, Nancy Katz, Michael Neblo

Working Papers

How do attitudes and social affiliations co-evolve? A long stream of research has focused on the relationship between attitudes and social affiliations. However, in most of this research the causal relationship between views and affiliations is difficult to discern definitively: Do people influence each other’s views so that they converge over time or do they primarily affiliate (by choice or happenstance) with those of similar views? Here we use longitudinal attitudinal and whole network data collected at critical times (notably, at the inception of the system) to identify robustly the determinants of attitudes and affiliations. We find significant conformity tendencies: …

Knowing When To Trust Others: An Erp Study Of Decision-Making After Receiving Information From Unknown People, Cheryl Boudreau, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Seana Coulson

Faculty Scholarship

To address the neurocognitive mechanisms that underlie choices made after receiving information from an anonymous individual, reaction times (Experiment 1) and event-related brain potentials (Experiment 2) were recorded as participants played 3 variants of the Coin Toss game. In this game, participants guess the outcomes of unseen coin tosses after a person in another room (dubbed “the reporter”) observes the coin toss outcomes and then sends reports (which may or may not be truthful) to participants about whether the coins landed on heads or tails. Participants knew that the reporter's interests either were aligned with their own (Common Interests), opposed …

Nothing But The Truth? Experiments On Adversarial Competition, Expert Testimony, And Decision Making, Cheryl Boudreau, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

Many scholars debate whether a competition between experts in legal, political, or economic contexts elicits truthful information and, in turn, enables people to make informed decisions. Thus, we analyze experimentally the conditions under which competition between experts induces the experts to make truthful statements and enables jurors listening to these statements to improve their decisions. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to game theoretic predictions and contrary to critics of our adversarial legal system, competition induces enough truth telling to allow jurors to improve their decisions. Then, when we impose additional institutions (such as penalties for lying or the threat of …

Affective Flexibility: Evaluative Processing Goals Shape Amygdala Activity, William A. Cunningham, Jay J. Van Bavel, Ingrid Johnsen Haas

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

Although early research implicated the amygdala in automatic processing of negative information, more recent research suggests that it plays a more general role in processing the motivational relevance of various stimuli, suggesting that the relation between valence and amygdala activation may depend on contextual goals. This study provides experimental evidence that the relation between valence and amygdala activity is dynamically modulated by evaluative goals. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants evaluated the positive, negative, or overall (positive plus negative) aspects of famous people. When participants were providing overall evaluations, both positive and negative names were associated with amygdala activation. When …