Models and Methods Commons^™

David Versus Goliath: The Power Of Weakness In Asymmetric Warfare—Lessons From History, Nicholas K. Petaludis

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Under what conditions do violent nonstate actors (VNA) succeed against states? Why does David sometimes beat Goliath? Since at least the time of Thucydides and the Peloponnesian Wars, the realist narrative in international relations measures power primarily in relative, coercive, and deterrent terms. Strong states should accordingly face fewer constraints and enjoy more options while pursuing their national interests. Unconventional warfare, and its subsets of terrorism and insurgency, should—given these circumstances, end in VNA failure. Sometimes, however, VNAs find success. By comparing the literature on historical and current case studies, I propose that a set of preconditions and two mechanisms …

The Role Of The United States In Advancing Democracy In Developing Countries: The Case Of Bangladesh, 2008-2020, Abdul Halim

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The United States has been working in close collaboration with the government of Bangladesh (GoB) to promote democratic norms and practices in the country. Over the past five decades, various US agencies have provided about $8 billion in foreign aid to Bangladesh (U.S. Department of State, 2022) with a significant percentage of these funds devoted to promoting democratic governance in the recipient nation. This study seeks to investigate the impact of US aid on democratization in Bangladesh from 2008 to 2020. Utilizing bi-variate statistical models, this essay analyzes four distinct measures of US-funded projects that directly promote democracy and their …

Recommendations For Sustainable Tourism In Patagonia: An Exploratory Analysis Of Sustainable Tourism In Costa Rica, The Nordic Region, And Thailand’S Communities, Julia K. Lowery

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis explores different levels of governance and its role towards actualizing sustainable tourism in Patagonia. With the growing threat of climate change, international destinations such as Patagonia are looking to continue building their tourism industries in a sustainable way. Through analyzing case studies of national governance in Costa Rica, multi-national governance in the Nordic region, and community-based tourism in Thailand, we can better understand how each form of governance has the potential to create a sustainable tourism industry. With this understanding of successful governance in my case studies, as well as understanding the historical and political forces that have …

Economic Predictors Of Democratic Backsliding: A Comparison Of Populist And Non-Populist Leaders, Jacob Winter

Honors Theses

The initial motivation of this research was to develop a better understanding of the primary causes of democratic backsliding, and by extension, how pro-democratic governments, NGOs, and other institutions can most effectively combat democratic backsliding. Previous research has examined the effects of economic conditions (Waldner and Lust 2018) as well as populism (Kyle and Mounk 2018) on a country’s democracy, but to my knowledge, no study has examined whether the effect of economic conditions on a country’s democracy differs between populist and non-populist countries. My research attempts to provide an answer to this question by examining how personal wealth, price …

Reformation Within The Nation: Adapting The Nordic Rehabilitation And Reintegration Model To Positively Recondition The United States Criminal Justice System, Jessica Cornell

Helm's School of Government Conference - 2021-2024

An analytical and statistical based comparison of criminal sentencing, incarceration, rehabilitation and reintegration in the United States of America to those of the five countries which follows those of the Nordic Criminal Justice System.

Gift Baskets For South Asia: Nuclear Risk Reduction And Crisis Management, Amber Jamil, Megan Goyette

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Gift Basket diplomacy is an interest-based approach to negotiation that encourages voluntary commitments as incentives for cooperation. International diplomats used this approach during the Nuclear Security Summits (NSS), and it is the new standard for international cooperation. This model was successfully replicated in climate talks and led to a global effort to combat climate change. The use of house presents, and gift baskets encourages leadership and team building, to excel beyond intractable consensus-based stalemates. The Gift Basket Diplomacy model may reduce South Asia’s nuclear risk and enhance crisis management by increasing diplomatic efforts during regional party talks and cooperative engagements, …

The Politics Of Belonging: How Migration Affects Social Democratic Welfare States, Katherine Grace Siegenthaler

Pomona Senior Theses

The refugee crisis of 2015 sparked a new era of migration politics in Europe, with waves of immigrants altering the expectations for integration and assimilation policies in many states. Social democratic welfare states, that is, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, while far north of many of the arrival destinations of these migrants, were not immune to these changes. However, as social-democratic welfare states, much of their legitimacy rests on their ability to provide for their citizens, which is in turn supported by a pervasive sense of solidarity amongst their communities, so that extensive tax systems can continue to …

An Analysis Of Cyber Wargaming: Current Games, Limitations, And Recommendations, Sarah Chen

CMC Senior Theses

Cyberspace operations and conflict pose a unique challenge to decision-makers due to the uncertainty and unpredictability of cyber capabilities. Relying on wargaming literature, public cyber wargame reports, and expert interviews, this thesis analyzes the utility of cyber wargaming for education and analysis. Cyber wargames offer a method of testing, exploring, and understanding cyberspace through the abstraction and representation of cyber tools and attack cycles.

The thesis begins by examining cyber conflict and theorizes hypothetical wargame use cases. It then creates a framework for cyber wargaming elements and examines the design of eleven analytical wargames, eight educational wargames, and three commercial …

The Logic Of Negative Appeals: Graphic Imagery, Affective Empathy, And Foreign Development Aid, A. Burcu Bayram, Marcus Holmes

Political Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The use of negative visual imagery of the poor to conjure feelings of pity, guilt, and empathy (also called “poverty porn”) is premised on an emotional mechanism that is supposed to elicit compassion and giving behavior, and yet the very emotional nature of the response to this kind of negative imagery can have the exact opposite effect by evoking compassion fatigue and psychological numbing. Our study interrogates this puzzle. Leveraging original data from survey experiments, we show that exposure to negative and personalized images of aid recipients in despair actually increases support for foreign development aid. In contrast, descriptive statistical …

Cold Turkey: Will The Recent Freeze In Turkish Nato Relations Spiral Into A Bigger Problem?, Ashlyn Cowell, Reagan Nelson, Paul Prentice, Brent Schuliger, Nathan Waite

Liberty University Journal of Statesmanship & Public Policy

Situated in a strategic location bridging the gap between Europe and Asia, Turkey has been a valuable member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for decades. However, recent events have inflamed underlying tensions between Turkey and other NATO member states. This research seeks to determine if the escalation will cause Turkey to withdraw from the alliance within the next five years. In order to accomplish this, our team conducted both quantitative and qualitative research on current and historical economic, political, and cultural conditions driving the conflict. Following this research, our team synthesized the data using structured analytic techniques (SATs) …

State Antifragility: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Understanding State Behavior, Rebecca Lee Law

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation takes an interdisciplinary approach to understanding what makes states antifragile and why this matters by constructing a parsimonious, first of its kind agent-based model. The model focuses on the key elements of state antifragility that reside along a spectrum of fragility and transverse bidirectionally from fragile to resilient to antifragile given a certain set of environmental conditions.

First coined by Nicholas Nassim Taleb and applied to economics, antifragility is a nascent concept. In 2015, Nassim Taleb and Gregory Treverton’s article in Foreign Affairs outlined five characteristics of state antifragility. This project aims to advance the study of anti-fragility …

An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos

Dissertations

The last 8 years have seen a dramatic increase in the flow of Central American apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol. Explanations for this surge in apprehensions have been split between two leading hypotheses. Most academic scholars, immigrant advocates, progressive media outlets, and human rights organizations identify poverty and violence (the Poverty and Violence Hypothesis) in Central America as the primary triggers responsible. In contrast, while most government officials, conservative think tanks, and the agencies that work in the immigration and border enforcement realm admit poverty and violence may underlie some decisions to migrate, they instead blame lax U.S. immigration …

Chaos From Order: A Network Analysis Of In-Fighting Before And After El Chapo's Arrest, Darren Colby

Independent Student Projects and Publications

The effect of leadership decapitation—the capture or killing of the leader of an armed group—on future violence has been studied with competing conclusions. In Mexico, leadership decapitation has been found to increase violence and in-fighting among drug cartels. However, the causal pathways between leadership decapitation and in-fighting are unclear. In this article, it is hypothesized that leadership decapitation will weaken alliances between armed actors, lead to greater preferential attachment in networks of cartels and militias, and result in greater transitive closure as cartels seek to expand their power. These hypotheses are tested with a stochastic actor oriented model on a …

Military Influence On Middle Eastern Democratization Following The Arab Spring, Andrew Fleming

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Despite experiencing countless wars, sectarian extremism, imperialism, and authoritarian rule, very few events have impacted the Middle East more significantly than the Arab Spring. Starting in 2010, the Arab Spring marked a turning point in which the people of numerous Arabic states collectively gathered to protest and combat the oppressive regimes that had controlled the region for decades. The Spring was indicative of the strong, recurring ambitions for revolution and regime change across the Middle East, presenting the Arab nations with an opportunity to reform their states from within. For some Middle Eastern states, the Arab Spring served as a …

Democracy In The Mena, Alexandria Petrof

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

There is not sufficient evidence that the Middle East will be able to democratize effectively. First and foremost, most attempts of implementing democracy have failed. The landscape and lack of industrialization also plays a role in the inability to apply democratic systems into this area. Lastly, the educational system, or lack thereof, struggles to educate their children and citizens as a whole and education is one of the biggest factors in the success of democracy.

‘It’S Like Baking A Cake’: An Analysis Of Conscience Voting In The New Zealand House Of Representatives Since The Introduction Of The Mixed-Member Proportional System In 1996, Harrison Hosking

CMC Senior Theses

Conscience voting in the New Zealand House of Representatives offers a unique opportunity to assess Sam Peltzman’s ‘Principal-Agent Theory’ as outlined in his 1984 paper, Constituent Interest and Congressional Voting.

This thesis begins with a brief assessment of the principal-agent model (and other literature regarding parliamentary representation) before looking at the New Zealand Parliamentary system and the phenomenon of private member’s bills and how they aid the legislative process. This is followed by an exploration of a constructed dataset of conscience votes that have occurred since the inception of the mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system in 1996. An analysis …

Analyzing The Onset And Resolution Of Nonstate Conflict In The Middle East & North Africa, Emily A. Barbaro

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

By applying structural-functionalist theories of deviance and opposition, this thesis deconstructs nonstate mobilization in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset, the quantitative analysis interpreted both group and leader behavior in conflict situations to determine factors that influenced conflict onset and resolution. The quasipoisson regression analysis of group behavior suggested that polity and state capacity were both significant predictors of violent and nonviolent mobilization. The negative binomial regression of regime behavior suggested that civilian casualties were the most significant predictor of a government response to nonstate mobilization. Ultimately, the …

Climate Migration: Evaluating The Conditions That Breed Conflict, Avery Dillon

Honors Thesis

The prediction that climate change will cause conflict is at its core based on the assumption that climate change will trigger resource scarcity, resulting in displaced peoples and potentially violent conflict. However, the empirical evidence supporting this phenomenon is highly uncertain and at times directly contradictory. In recent decades, some have claimed that climate change’s exacerbation of extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts have already played major roles in conflicts such as the Syrian Civil War (Selby 2019). Others directly dispute this direct effect, arguing instead that climate change has played only a minor role in influencing …

Discourse Analysis Of Nyt’S Headlines On Terrorism And Climate Change: How Media Reflects Our Conceptualization Of Security, Helena Gabrielle Ong

Pomona Senior Theses

Although climate change and terrorism are both considered national security threats by U.S. military experts, the American public views these threats differ- ently, with climate change at lower risk and priority in comparison to terror- ism. This reflects a difference in how the public conceptualizes security threats. This paper aims to address that gap through media coverage. This study ex- amines the language of newspaper headlines for terrorism and climate change in order to identify the dominant representations of these issues in the media. I analyze the discourse of two security issues—terrorism and climate change– by comparing news headlines from …

Public Perceptions Of Angela Merkel And Other Female Politicians In Germany: A Mixed Survey Approach, Erin Woggon

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This thesis seeks to understand public perceptions of women politicians in Germany, specifically Chancellor Angela Merkel, and evaluates these perceptions based on gender, region, and representation of CDU/CSU female legislators in the Bundestag. While literature suggests that there are benefits of greater female representation in legislatures, there is a lack of research regarding how this representation impacts perceptions held by the citizens these women represent. Important to the study is also the difference in perceptions according to gender and the former East/West divide in order to understand the gender gap in Germany and the extent of the social impact left …

Uneven Influence: Why Female Representation Affects Some Migration Policies But Not Others, Lauren M. Olsen

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

In the wake of the 2015 migration crisis, immigration policy has become one of the most critical topics of academic scholarship and political debate. Despite this prolific response, very little research has investigated how the gender of policymakers affects immigration policy. This raises an interesting question: is there any difference in immigration policy among countries with high and low numbers of female legislators? To investigate this matter, I use panel fixed-effects regression to systematically compare the immigration policies of the original EU-15 from 2000 to 2010. As a single policy area, I find female representation has no significant impact on …

The Finch Effect: Evolutionary Metaphors And Illiberal Democracy In Central And Eastern Europe, Abigail Woodfield

Claremont-UC Undergraduate Research Conference on the European Union

In recent years, several states in Central and Eastern Europe have seen democratic digression. Such illiberal resurgences came as a surprise to the many political scientists who assumed that the future of these states was democratic. Indeed, after the fall of the Soviet Union, the world largely regarded liberal democracy as the predominant system of government. The future seemed bright, and it was tempting to understand that future in evolutionary terms—just as humans evolved under natural selection to become the dominant species, democracy had survived a similar competition and defeated all other systems of government to become the dominant regime. …

Predicting Leader Survival: Evidence From Covert Action Case Study Analysis, Joy S. Patton

Dissertations

This research explores the unique relationship between covert action and leader survivability, in particular, how leadership styles and personality traits influence this relationship. The life of a ruler is ephemeral. For those who are lucky, their exit from office is through retirement or old age. For most, their tenure is short, often ending through violent means. The overthrow of rulers by their rivals is a common theme throughout world history, and the strategy remains a popular choice in contemporary warfare. However, despite the frequency of regime change, very little is discussed in international relations about covert regime change and its …

Syrian Crisis Representation In The Media: The Cnn Effect, Framing, And Tone, Savannah S. Day

Venture: The University of Mississippi Undergraduate Research Journal

Over the past seven years of the Syrian Civil War, Syrian refugees have been painted in a negative light by news media outlets around the world. History of media coverage regarding global humanitarian crises shows that with various tools and processes, media can shape public opinion and policy in whichever direction it desires, and oftentimes policymakers and the public are quick, as well as emotional, to react. In this paper, my objectives are to analyze specific examples of this CNN Effect phenomena within news coverage of the Syrian refugee crisis, as well as generally explain the negatively correlating relationship between …

Cosmopolitan Democracy: Re-Evaluation Of Globalization And World Economic System, Muhammad Dalhatu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines cosmopolitan democracy theory as a method of addressing the problems of globalization. I begin by introducing the concept of “cosmopolitan democracy.” I then proceed to discuss contemporary political climate and its relation to critiques of globalization. Finally, I conclude by examining the elaborations of cosmopolitan democracy by various theorists as a way of addressing these problems. Chapter 1 introduces the work of David Held who introduced the concept in his book, Cosmopolitan Democracy and the Global Order: Reflections on the 20^th Anniversary of Kant’s “Perpetual Peace.” Cosmopolitan democracy refers to global governance through democratic theory. Held …

Evaluating Sebastian Rosato's Balance Of Power Theory: A Case Study In The Collapse Of Europe's Great Experiment, Tyler Soutendijk

Swarthmore International Relations Journal

No abstract provided.

The Messy Nuclear Landscape: Using Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping To Explore Plausible Nuclear Disarmament Scenarios, Ryan M. Nixon

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Nuclear weapons are seemingly permanent fixtures in international relations. Although nuclear abolitionists and actors within the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have taken significant steps towards designing a world without nuclear weapons, the longstanding realist logic that suggests nuclear disarmament is nonviable has born more fruit. On the other hand, some proponents of realism have suggested global nuclear disarmament is feasible, given that certain international instabilities are stabilized and that special care is taken during diplomatic negotiations. This presents an opportunity to test these predictions using fuzzy cognitive mapping, a computational modeling technique that identifies …

Given Today's New Wave Of Protectionsim, Is Antitrust Law The Last Hope For Preserving A Free Global Economy Or Another Nail In Free Trade's Coffin?, Allison Murray

Loyola of Los Angeles International and Comparative Law Review

No abstract provided.

A Challenge To Socio-Ecological Resilience: Community Based Resource Management Organizations’ Perceptions And Responses To Cannabis Cultivation In Northern California, Yvonne Everett

Humboldt Journal of Social Relations

Local nonprofit organizations in the Pacific Northwest have stepped up to fill a leadership void in forest management since the Timber Wars of the 1980s and 1990s. Community based resource management groups (CBRM) have focused on stewardship of ecosystem services, and leading efforts to employ local workers to restore forest ecosystems and watershed functions. In Northern California, even as CBRM capacity has grown since the Timber Wars, a new transformative challenge threatens community and landscape adaptive capacity. Cannabis cultivation, which can have significant environmental and social impacts, has become a pervasive economic driver. I used interviews to explore CBRM leaders’ …

Political Accountability And Determinants Of Governance Under Principal-Agent Theory, Matthew Bluem

Dissertations

This study examines the theory that quality of governance is largely dependent upon political accountability, and that the effect of political accountability on governance varies based on three main determinants: level of democracy, level of information available to the public, and diversification of the economy (Adserà et al. 2003). With quality of governance, represented by the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI), as the dependent variable, this study considers how these three independent variables, and several control variables, affect governance quality. Incorporating data from 2010 – 2015 for 143 countries in both cross-sectional OLS and fixed effects panel regression analysis, …