Models and Methods Commons^™

Judicial Conflicts And Voting Agreement: Evidence From Interruptions At Oral Argument, Tonja Jacobi, Kyle Rozema

Faculty Articles

This Article asks whether observable conflicts between Supreme Court justices—interruptions between the justices during oral arguments—can predict breakdowns in voting outcomes that occur months later. To answer this question, we built a unique dataset based on the transcripts of Supreme Court oral arguments and justice votes in cases from 1960 to 2015. We find that on average a judicial pair is seven percent less likely to vote together in a case for each interruption that occurs between them in the oral argument for that case. While a conflict between the justices that leads to both interruptions and a breakdown in …

Forecasting Changes In Religiosity And Existential Security With An Agent-Based Model, Ross J. Gore, Carlos Lemos, F. Leron Shults, Wesley J. Wildman

VMASC Publications

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) …

Levels Of Media Consumption And Muslim Intolerance, Kathryn E. Cushman

Student Publications

Exploring the various factors that lead to Muslim intolerance, specifically the role of media consumption and the control variables of age and education levels

Predicting The Brexit Vote By Tracking And Classifying Public Opinion Using Twitter Data, Julio C. Amador Diaz Lopez, Sofia Collignon-Delmar, Kenneth Benoit, Akitaka Matsuo

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

We use 23M Tweets related to the EU referendum in the UK to predict the Brexit vote. In particular, we use user-generated labels known as hashtags to build training sets related to the Leave/Remain campaign. Next, we train SVMs in order to classify Tweets. Finally, we compare our results to Internet and telephone polls. This approach not only allows to reduce the time of hand-coding data to create a training set, but also achieves high level of correlations with Internet polls. Our results suggest that Twitter data may be a suitable substitute for Internet polls and may be a useful …

Trolling Twitter, Eric Vorst

Dissertations

Political polarization is a defining feature of the contemporary American political landscape. While there is little doubt that elite polarization levels have risen dramatically in recent decades, there is some debate over the existence of a corresponding rise in mass polarization. Recent scholarship on mass polarization has cited evidence related to citizens’ positions on public policy issues, party sorting, and geographic polarization; however, questions remain as to the nature and extent of mass polarization in online spaces. Specifically, more needs to be known regarding how expressions of elite polarization influence the formation of polarized communities within social media.

This dissertation …

People's War In Cyberspace: Using China's Civilian Economy In The Information Domain, Kieran Richard Green

Military Cyber Affairs

China is identified as posing a key challenge to US national security interests in cyberspace. These threats are incurred across the spectrum of conflict, ranging from low-level crime, to network penetration, to cyberattacks that have the potential to cause major physical destruction. Thus far, the majority of strategic assessments of China’s cyber capabilities have focused on the role of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which is officially tasked with undertaking offensive operations in cyberspace.[1] However, China does not employ its cyber capabilities in isolation. Rather, it considers cyber to be part of the “Information Domain.” In Chinese doctrine, controlling …

Across Systems: Preventing, Countering, And Defusing Violent Extremism—A Discussion Of Strategy, Policy, Practice, And Theory, Keenan Powers

Capstone Collection

This paper explores today’s landscape of violent conflict in the context of the now 15-year-old “War on Terror” and its defining trait of strengthened, nimble, and networked violent extremist non-state militant groups. Through an exploration of primarily United Nations and United States strategies, policies, and programming the concepts of Countering Violent Extremism and Preventing Violent Extremism are melded into a discussion of the shifting frameworks and broadening notions of what it takes to create human security. This paper is particularly concerned with how the traditionally at odds fields of Counter Terrorism, Military Security, Development Assistance, and Peacebuilding practice are co-thinking …

Happiness In Public Policy, Laura Musikanski

Journal of Sustainable Social Impact

The happiness movement represents a new paradigm where social, economic, and environmental systems are structured to encourage human well-being in a sustainable environment. Bhutan has adopted Gross National Happiness (GNH) as a way of determining its society’s success in contrast to purely economic goals and the singular use of the gross domestic product indicator. Bhutanese policy promulgation includes use of a GNH screening tool. In the United Kingdom, happiness indicators are being used to collect data and the government is starting to explore their application to policy. The Bhutanese GNH policy screening tool has been adapted for the grassroots activists, …

Chieftaincy-Based Community Dispute Resolution: The Case Of Sierra Leone, Whitney Mcintyre Miller

Education Faculty Articles and Research

Sierra Leone suffered a destructive 11-year civil war that largely left its communities torn apart and in need of vast redevelopment. One of the ways that communities are rebuilding and making efforts to move forward is through the chieftaincy-based community dispute resolution process. Based on historical norms, this process involves the community leader, or chief, helping to resolve disputes within the community. This article reviews this chieftaincy-based community dispute resolution process, discusses the types of disputes settled, and provides broader lessons learned for communities who may be interested in truly community-based dispute resolution.

Social Media And The Transformation Of The Humanitarian Narrative: A Comparative Analysis Of Humanitarian Discourse In Libya 2011 And Bosnia 1994, Ellen Noble

Political Science Honors Projects

Within humanitarian discourse, there is a prevailing narrative: the powerful liberal heroes are saving the helpless, weak victims. However, the beginning of the 21^st century marks the expansion of the digital revolution throughout lesser-developed states. Growing access to the Internet has enabled aid recipients to communicate with the outside world, giving them an unprecedented opportunity to reshape discourses surrounding humanitarianism. Through a comparative discourse analysis of Libyan Tweets, 1994 newspaper reports on Bosnia, and 2011 newspaper reports on Libya, this paper analyzes whether aid recipient discourse can resist the dominant humanitarian narrative and if that resistance can influence dominant …

Cheap, Easy, Or Connected: The Conditions For Creating Group Coordination, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Daniel Rodriguez, Nicholas Weller

Faculty Scholarship

In both legal and political settings there has been a push toward adopting institutions that encourage consensus. The key feature of these institutions is that they bring interested parties together to communicate with each other. Existing research about the success or failure of particular institutions is ambiguous. Therefore, we turn our attention to understanding the general conditions when consensus is achievable, and we test experimentally three crucial factors that affect a group's ability to achieve consensus: (1) the difficulty of the problem, (2) the costs of communication, and (3) the structure of communication. Using multiple experimental approaches, we find that …

Let Political System Be A Connecting Tool, Tan K. B. Eugene

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

An article by Eugene K B Tan, Assistant Professor of Law analysing the Prime Minister's National Day Rally speech. He suggests the PM could have used the speech to highlight how the political system can evolve to generate greater public ownership of the system of governance.

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos

Selected Works Temporary Series

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

Where Does The Buck Stop? Applying Attribution Theory To Examine Public Appraisals Of The President, Cigdem Sirin, José Villalobos

Departmental Papers (PS)

This study applies attribution theory to examine public appraisals of the president. To date, most political science research on attribution theory has focused on domestic policy and no work has considered both domestic and foreign policy domains in tandem. To fill this gap, we formulate and experimentally test a series of hypotheses regarding the level of responsibility and credit/blame that individuals attribute to the president in both policy domains across varying policy conditions. We also consider how party compatibility affects people’s attribution judgments. Our findings provide a new contribution to the literature on political attributions, executive accountability, and public perceptions …

What Is Conservatism?, Heidi Peters

Graduate Research Symposium (2010 - 2017)

The re-branding of the right manifested itself in conservative movements and gatherings across the country in-between 2008 & 2010. One of those events included Glenn Beck's Restoring Honor Rally on August 28, 2010. This research project is a case study that illustrates how the conservative political ideology is defined and rejuvenated after massive defeat.

Learning Sustainable Development: Chimeneas De La Esperanza, Miriam V. Mollan Gundersen

Social Sciences

Social inequality and environmental degradation are motivating informed young people into action and connecting impoverished regions of the world with students in more developed nations. This Social Sciences senior project is to analyze an alternative development model designed by a group of Californian university students. The project, named Chimeneas de la Esperanza, is designed to help impoverished Nicaraguan women start a ceramics business. The major hurdle of this mission is to establish a market for the ceramics product. Energy efficient ceramic stoves and smoke ventilating chimneys would benefit the community and avoid an impacted crafts market. The project encompasses ideas …

The Blind Leading The Blind: Who Gets Polling Information And Does It Improve Decisions?, Cheryl Boudreau, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

We analyze whether and when polls help citizens to improve their decisions. Specifically, we use experiments to investigate 1) whether and when citizens are willing to obtain polls and 2) whether and when polls help citizens to make better choices than they would have made on their own. We find that citizens are more likely to obtain polls when the decisions they must make are difficult and when they are unsophisticated. Ironically, when the decisions are difficult, the pollees are also uninformed and, therefore, do not provide useful information. We also find that when polls indicate the welfare-improving choice, citizens …

Connected Coordination: Network Structure And Group Coordination, Mathew D. Mccubbins, Ramamohan Paturi, Nicholas Weller

Faculty Scholarship

Networks can affect a group’s ability to solve a coordination problem. We utilize laboratory experiments to study the conditions under which groups of subjects can solve coordination games. We investigate a variety of different network structures, and we also investigate coordination games with symmetric and asymmetric payoffs. Our results show that network connections facilitate coordination in both symmetric and asymmetric games. Most significantly, we find that increases in the number of network connections encourage coordination even when payoffs are highly asymmetric. These results shed light on the conditions that may facilitate coordination in real-world networks.

Competition In The Courtroom: When Does Expert Testimony Improve Jurors’ Decisions?, Cheryl Boudreau, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

Many scholars lament the increasing complexity of jury trials and question whether the testimony of competing experts helps unsophisticated jurors to make informed decisions. In this article, we analyze experimentally the effects that the testimony of competing experts has on (1) sophisticated versus unsophisticated subjects' decisions and (2) subjects' deci- sions on difficult versus easy problems. Our results demonstrate that competing expert testimony, by itself, does not help unsophisticated subjects to behave as though they are sophisticated, nor does it help subjects make comparable decisions on difficult and easy problems. When we impose additional institutions (such as penalties for lying …

Viewpoint Diversity And Media Consolidation: An Empirical Study, Daniel E. Ho, Kevin M. Quinn

Faculty Articles

One of the central predicates of legal regulation of media ownership is that ownership consolidation reduces substantive viewpoint diversity. Appellate courts and, in turn, the Federal Communications Commission have increasingly demanded evidence for this convergence hypothesis, but extant empirical measures of viewpoint diversity sidestep the problem, ignoring diversity, viewpoints, or both. Our Article develops and offers a finely tuned, time-varying statistical measure of editorial viewpoint diversity, based on a new database of over 1600 editorial positions in twenty-five top newspapers from 1988-2004. Using this new measure, we assess the validity of the convergence hypothesis by examining the evolution of editorial …

Social Entrepreneurship In The Practice Of Deliberation And Dialogue, Roger A. Lohmann

Faculty & Staff Scholarship

Advocates of public deliberation and sustained dialogue, like other change agents, often embrace roles as social entrepreneurs and engage in entrepreneurial efforts in promoting their cause. In particular, this may involve locating the resources necessary to establish and engage in programs of D & D, seeking to establish the costs and benefits of such programs, and furthering research into their effectiveness.