International Relations Commons^™

Digital Resistance And The Political Economy Of Authoritarian Decline And Economic Liberalization In Ethiopia, Anaol Dalle

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation aims to examine the impact increased consumption of digital technologies, like social media and the internet, has on the stability and autonomy of low-capacity authoritarian countries. By using Ethiopia (2015-2021) as a case study, the dissertation argues that the sudden adoption and proliferation of digital platforms serves as an exogenous shock that pushes the state into a critical juncture that unravels institutional equilibria and transforms domestic incentive structures and institutions. This creates a power vacuum, which triggers a period of intense, and often violent, competition between elite groups, significantly destabilizing the state. In the absence of a cohesive …

Director, Military Cyber Institute, Joseph Schafer

Military Cyber Affairs

No abstract provided.

Throughput Of Ascon Compared With Popular Iot Encryption Algorithms, Mitchel R. Harvey (Ryan), Andrew M. Kaiser, Garrett W. Hoiness

Military Cyber Affairs

No abstract provided.

Anomaly Detection Of Network Layer Attacks Against Cyber Physical Systems Using Machine Learning And Deep Learning Techniques, James Alger, Michael Tu

Military Cyber Affairs

This research paper presents the analysis of using machine learning and deep learning algorithms on detecting anomalous network traffic in Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). Using a real PLC CPS-based system, normal and anomalous network traffic will be captured using Wireshark. The research analyzes a DDoS attack. The focus of the research is to identify the most effective feature combinations and evaluate them on ML and DL models. The emphasis is on enhancing detection strategies rather than exploiting device vulnerabilities. The detection of network attacks often involves handling a vast array of high-level features. Previous studies (Li & Chasaki, 2022) apply machine …

Characterizing Caldera’S Cyber Attack Emulation Capabilities, Caleb Chang, Matthew Cao, Kenyou Teoh, Ekzhin Ear, Shouhuai Xu

Military Cyber Affairs

Autonomous cyber attack emulation can aid cyber defenders to identify and remediate cyber risks. MITRE’s Caldera software is the state-of-the-practice for automated attack emulation. Yet, it has not been systematically analyzed, putting its performance and effectiveness into question. This paper systematically characterizes Caldera’s architecture, abilities and use cases, and assesses its strengths and weaknesses. It draws useful insights, such as: Caldera excels in stealthy access and execution tactics to pilfer data against Windows operating systems. It also discusses two directions for Caldera improvement: module-level automation and end-to-end attack emulation.

The Digital Battlefield: Safeguarding Military Drones Against Cyberattacks, Jason Ashong, Arun Venkitanarayanan, Benjamin Yankson

Military Cyber Affairs

The Internet of Battlefield Things (IoBT) is an advanced network of interconnected devices that significantly enhance military operations through real-time data exchange and situational awareness. While IoBT offers tactical advantages like improved surveillance, reconnaissance, and operational effectiveness, it also introduces substantial cybersecurity risks. Adversaries can exploit vulnerabilities within these networks, potentially compromising mission integrity and national security. This research examines the cybersecurity measures of commercial drone controllers and their correlation with military devices. It aims to enhance future vulnerability assessments with advanced tools and approaches to better secure critical military operations. The study highlights the need for robust security architectures …

Using Blockchain Technology To Help Secure America's Defense Critical Infrastructure, Vimal Buck, Aerin Krebs, Brynn Hillard, Jakob Gerha, Joseph Lutma, Srikar Maduposu, Ted Allen

Military Cyber Affairs

Critical water infrastructure in the United States faces increasing cybersecurity threats from state-sponsored actors, with potentially devastating consequences for national security, economic stability, and public health. (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, 2025). This infrastructure supports defense critical assets and is actively being targeted by various state-sponsored hacking groups, which poses a major concern for civilians and military alike. K. Herath (personal communication, February 24, 2025) reported being aware of two attacks on Ohio water systems during his tenure as Cybersecurity Strategic Advisor to Ohio Governor Mike DeWine.

Water is essential to everyday life and defense and presents as a high-value …

Network And Multipath Traceroute Visualization, Cameron Makowski

Military Cyber Affairs

TraceCam introduces a new paradigm in network path analysis, leveraging GPU-accelerated WebGL visualization, advanced traceroute integrations, and AI-driven insights to transform complex routing data into actionable intelligence. Early prototypes have demonstrated significant improvements in performance, clarity, and multi-path discovery, overcoming traditional limitations in traceroute analysis. By incorporating retrieval-augmented language models and enriched metadata sources like IPinfo.io, TraceCam enables automated anomaly detection, contextual explanations, and rapid root-cause analysis, enhancing operational efficiency. The platform’s architecture ensures scalability and adaptability, supporting deeper investigations and real-time situational awareness. Future development will focus on clustering-based anomaly detection, expanded geographic visualizations, and enhanced AI-generated analysis to …

Quantifying Adversary Military Forces’ Susceptibility To Cognitive Attacks, Bonnie Rushing, Cole Nelson, Shouhuai Xu, Christofer “Raven” O’Keefe, Olga Karpoyan

Military Cyber Affairs

This paper introduces a method to quantify international populations’ susceptibility to cyber cognitive attacks using press freedom and media trust metrics. We present the Cognitive Influence Calculator, a tool that estimates susceptibility (𝑆) based on Press Freedom Scores (PFS) and media trust levels. Findings show that while authoritarian regimes are harder to reach, successful cognitive attacks have greater impacts due to higher trust in state-controlled narratives. Using U.S. wargaming data and international trust metrics, we compute susceptibility scores for the U.S., Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Results show an inverse relationship between PFS and media susceptibility, with local/allied …

Forward, Amy Hamilton

Military Cyber Affairs

No abstract provided.

Understanding Russia’S Cyber Policies, Strategies, And Doctrines, Bryan Hancock, Hanh Nguyen, Olga Karpoyan, Ekzhin Ear, Shouhuai Xu

Military Cyber Affairs

This study analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia’s cyber policies, strategies, and doctrines through a systematic set of attributes, leading to key insights: (i) Russia has proactively adapted its cyber policies, strategies, and doctrines to its evolving environment; (ii) Russia actively conducts cognitive warfare, but remains equally vulnerable to it; and (iii) Russia’s cyber posture faces significant challenges, including a limited technological base, shortage of skilled personnel, and restrictive approach to information control, all of which undermine the effectiveness of its strategies. These insights offer valuable implications for US Cyber Command and the Department of Defense.

Characterizing Cyberattacks Against Operational Technology Infrastructures Through The Lens Of Attack Flows, Sherman Kettner, Caleb Chang, Ekzhin Ear, Shouhuai Xu

Military Cyber Affairs

Operational Technology (OT) infrastructures play a critical role in modern society and economy. However, their increasing connectivity with public networks such as the Internet has made them vulnerable to cyberattacks, much like traditional Information Technology (IT) systems. In particular, cyberattacks against OT infrastructures remain relatively underexplored and little understood. In this paper, we aim to deepen our understanding of cyberattacks against OT infrastructures. For this purpose, we propose a methodology, including novel cybersecurity metrics to analyze the attack flows of these attacks in an end-to-end fashion, which allows us to draw useful insights. We demonstrate the utility of the methodology …

The Evolution Of Global Gold And Copper Trade Networks, Oleksandr Hulianskyi

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Gold and copper have emerged as two of the most vital commodities in global trade. Despite serving distinct purposes, their international trade networks reveal interconnected patterns, critical to understanding the dynamics of global economics. This paper studies these attributes and their evolution during the last 36 years for both metals and finds correlations between them. The first part of the research is focused on the sustainability of networks through efficiency and robustness indexes; the second part is dedicated to interconnectedness – the Louvain and Bayesian SBM algorithms, partition, and modularity instruments are used. Community detection algorithms provide valuable insights into …

الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية وتداعياتها على الأمن الغذائي العربي "2024-2022", Amani Haitham Irshed Al-Shdifat, Abed Alftah Al-Rshdan

Journal of the Association of Arab Universities for Research in Higher Education مجلة اتحاد الجامعات العربية للبحوث في التعليم العالي

هدفت الدراسة التعرف على أثر الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية على الأمن الغذائي العربي. وانطلقت الدراسة من فرضية رئيسة مفادها "أثرت الأزمة الروسية الأوكرانية بشكل سلبي على الأمن الغذائي العربي"، ولتحقيق أهداف الدراسة تم الاعتماد على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي والمنهج التاريخي، وتوصلت الدراسة إلى عدد من النتائج، أهمها: أن كلاً من روسيا وأوكرانيا تمثلان أهمية كبيرة في الأسواق العالمية للغذاء، وقد أثرت الحرب ما بين الدولتين على الدول العربية كونها المستورد الصافي للغذاء من هاتين الدولتين، وتواجه الدول العربية نتيجة للحرب ارتفاعاً في الأسعار العالمية للغذاء (القمح) بسبب ارتفاع تكاليف الشحن والنقل والمحروقات واضطراب سلاسل الإمداد، وانخفاض توريد الحبوب وزيوت الطعام من …

Parameters Summer 2025, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2025 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific Challenges, Russia-Ukraine Issues, and Historical Studies).

A More Perfect Peace: Can The Russia-Ukraine War End Justly?, Nathaniel B. Davis, Marlon A. Thomas

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that thinking creatively about war termination, both philosophically and politically, utilizing jus post bellum principles and counterintuitive political trade-offs, reveals an opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace that approximates justice. The article surveys how war aims among belligerents have changed, indicating that further change is possible, particularly at the point of war termination. Next, the article examines jus post bellum principles and their application to the Russia-Ukraine War. Finally, the article contends that Ukraine relinquishing Crimea and the Donbas in exchange for NATO membership might be the key to achieving a durable peace that addresses long-term security.

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

From The Editor In Chief, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2025 issue of Parameters. This issue consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Indo-Pacific Challenges, Russia-Ukraine Issues, and Historical Studies).

China’S Role In A Future Korean War, Jake Rinaldi

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that China’s intervention in a Korean conflict will hinge more on North Korea’s ability to hold territory than on bilateral ties. Rather than treat Chinese intervention as a yes-or-no proposition, this study models three scenarios—full intervention, sustained support, and limited support—based on North Korean resilience. Using Chinese-language sources and scenario-based analysis, it assesses how each model would shape key functional areas such as ISR, cyber, materiel, and force posture. The findings offer US defense planners a framework for anticipating variable People’s Liberation Army involvement in a future Korea contingency.

The Next National Defense Strategy: Mission-Based Force Planning, Frank G. Hoffman

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Pentagon needs to embrace a new methodology called mission-based planning to size and shape the defense enterprise properly. This article critiques several proposals for reestablishing the long-standing two major theater war construct in the face of ongoing shifts in the strategic environment, including the nation’s $36 trillion debt and prospects of annual interest payments beyond $1 trillion. It presents a mission priority alternative focused on strategic prioritization based on the authors’ four decades of experience in strategy/force planning at the service, the department, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense levels. Strategic-level service planners and students of Joint …

Strategic Narratives To Counter Global Threats, Jerry E. Landrum, Chase Metcalf, Michael M. Posey

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that the current National Security Strategy lacks the necessary coherence and fidelity to mobilize collective action against the emerging Russia-China axis. It merges multiple theoretical concepts to assert that the “rules-based order” theme is insufficient for mobilizing public support. Using textual analysis of the strategy compared with publicly available polling to determine levels of popular resonance, the authors find that the “rules-based order emphasis” does not resonate. This study’s conclusions will assist practitioners as they develop an updated National Security Strategy in the new presidential administration.

Exploiting Vulnerability: Human Trafficking As A Tool Of Genocide, Madison Bryant

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

This thesis examines the relationship between human trafficking and genocide, arguing that when trafficking is used with the intent to destroy a targeted group, it should be understood and prosecuted as an act of genocide. While international law traditionally treats genocide and human trafficking as distinct crimes, historical and contemporary evidence reveals significant overlap in their mechanisms, motivations, and outcomes. Through a thematic analysis of three case studies, this research demonstrates how trafficking has been systematically employed to further genocidal objectives, including displacement, exploitation, cultural erasure, and the destruction of communities. The case studies are the genocide of Indigenous peoples …

Economic Warfare Against Iran’S Nuclear Program, Zoey E. Weiss

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

This study evaluates the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with a particular emphasis on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the Maximum Pressure Campaign (MPC). Using the Economic Coercion Trilemma framework, this research analyzes the impact of these sanctions regimes on Iran’s nuclear program through the lenses of efficacy, political feasibility, and unintended consequences. Ultimately this study explores the question: Could sustained sanctions have constrained Iran’s access to critical resources, effectively halting its pursuit of nuclear weapons? The findings suggest that while both the JCPOA and MPC had varying degrees of success, neither fully …

Cunning Commies, Dumb Democrats, And Exiled Germans: A Holistic Postmortem Of The 1948 Czechoslovak Coup D'État, Douglas Joys

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

The role played by the post-WWII expulsion of ethnic Germans from Czechoslovakia in catalyzing the 1948 Czechoslovak coup d'état has been underexplored in favor of the traditional narrative of an East-West clash between Czechoslovak democratic and communist parties backed by the United States and Soviet Union, respectively. Scholarship on the expulsion and the coup has on occasion brought up connections between the two events, albeit briefly and only as a small part of larger examinations of one of the two. The Eastern and Western forces at play in Czechoslovakia were undoubtedly key factors in the coup’s outcome: the end of …

Tensions In The Arctic: Avoiding Escalation, Emma Loeber

Undergraduate Theses, Capstones, and Recitals

The Arctic has long been considered a place of peace and scientific cooperation largely unaffected by international tensions. In the past decade, however, climate change has made the Northern Sea Route (NSR) increasingly navigable, and its status as an important trade route in a time of recurring great power rivalry has increased tensions in the Arctic. Coupled with the Arctic’s strategic location for both Russia and the United States, this has led to the militarization of the region and fears of a security dilemma that could lead to escalation and conflict. This paper will focus on the eight Arctic states …

The War On Tourer: An Analysis In Terrorism’S Effect On Tourism, Jacob M. Strawn

Student Theses and Dissertations

Tourism is the third largest global export, representing seven percent of all global trade(UNWTO 2021). Many developing countries now depend on tourism to achieve sustainableeconomic growth, a core component of the UN’s 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Priorstudies of this phenomenon focus on isolated case-studies, mostly based on limited data. Inthis thesis I examine how terrorist incidents and fatalities affect international tourist arrivalsin 93 developing countries from 1995 to 2020. Special focus is placed on potential variablesthat may effect some countries more than others like Post-9/11 Anxiety. An increase in terrorattacks is associated with a decrease in tourism. A separate analysis …

Technology In International Relations: A Theoretical Perspective On Understanding Us-Chinese Tech War, Ahmed Elbassoussy

Future Journal of Social Science

The massive technological boom that the international scene has witnessed recently has contributed to rearranging the structure of the international system, as the importance of the technological factor in the equation of the relative power of the state has increased. This has led to an increase in the intensity of competition between the major international powers, especially between the United States and China, which has prompted many analysts to restore the concept of the US-China technological war, or what Known as “Cold War 2.0). In this context, this paper seeks to develop a comprehensive framework that combines the theoretical and …

How The U.S. Can Protect Taiwan In The 21st Century, Zachary Surmacz

Hatfield Graduate Journal of Public Affairs

What U.S. policy would deescalate cross-strait tensions, while maintaining Taiwan’s security? This article is supported by the information and perspectives received from 12, one-on-one, semi-structured interviews with a variety of thought leaders in Taiwan. The goal of this proposal is to provide policymakers in the United States with a path for protecting Taiwan, while responsibly managing the U.S.-China relationship. The paper begins with a short background of the complex policy problem facing Taiwan and a review of the current official U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity." The article then provides an evaluation of the U.S. policy by comparing its stated goals …

United Seas For Resilient Reefs: A Blueprint For Coral Conservation Through International Cooperation, John J. Bohorquez, Maoz Fine, Dana I. Grieco, David A. Gill, Ali Al-Swalimih, Jacqueline Padilla-Gamino, Isaiah W. Bolden, Margaux Hein, Callum Backstrom, Melanie Mcfield, Raphael Martinez, Benjamin Midberry, Fahd Al-Guthmy, Ellen K. Pikitch, Natalia Benejam, Chen Azulay, Britt Ronen, Oren Levy, Anne Mcelroy, Karine Kleinhaus

School of Marine & Atmospheric Sciences Faculty Publications

Coral reefs are one of Earth’s most vital and threatened ecosystems. They protect coastlines, generate billions of dollars of tourism revenue, support valuable fisheries, and contribute to the development of vital medicines. Yet half of the world's coral reefs have been lost in the last 50 years, and 90% of remaining reefs are projected to die off by the middle of this century, mainly due to warming seas from climate change.

Despite these challenges there is reason for hope. Some coral reefs – such as in the northern Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba – have demonstrated remarkable resilience to …

Criminal Organizations And Nuclear Threats In Southeast Asia, Gary Ackerman, Thomas Guarrieri, Justin V. Hastings, Steven Hoodjer

International Journal of Nuclear Security

Increasing global interest in nuclear energy and peaceful uses of nuclear technology has led to facilities in emerging countries with nuclear materials and radioactive sources that could be stolen, sabotaged, or otherwise accessed by criminals. In this paper, we created a framework to assess the motivations and capabilities of criminal networks and measure the threats they may pose to different stages of the nuclear fuel cycle in emerging nuclear states. We applied the framework to a unique dataset, capturing characteristics of criminal organizations active in Southeast Asia, which allowed us to assess which criminal organizations are most likely to pose …